The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics)
(09-24-2020, 07:26 PM)floridaman Wrote: Lol we need JJG back in here.

(09-24-2020, 06:47 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(09-24-2020, 06:32 PM)floridaman Wrote: I literally don't know a single person in real life that owns ethereum or even knows what it is.

Maybe that is why they are doing better than you while you are waiting around for a BTC to make you into a sudden billionaire.

I need to do some research into BTC maximalists.  There is definitely a psychological dimension to their religious cult-like hopes for BTC.

Hard to deal with boomer think. 

I don't rely on bitcoin as an investment. I've said that half a dozen times already but it never seems to sink in lol. 

I have passive investment earnings, some of which are in bitcoin. And I use btc to buy stuff almost daily. 

While I do think there will be opportunities to ride speculative waves to great profit, that's just icing on the cake for me. My interest in it is utilitarian and as a hedge again fiat currencies which are on the way out.

The youngest "boomer" turns 56 this year. I doubt there are many on this site. I may be the only one and my presence is minimal at best.
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I bought some bitcoin back in 2018 and now want to buy some more. I just regret I didn't buy earlier this year and wonder if it's bad time right now. I read an article on Forbes predicting BTC value to be below $10000 at the end of 2020.
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@gypscholar

The retail herd hasn't arrived yet. The herd that is coming is corporate (square and microstrategy just invested sizable amounts in BTC as a reserve asset).

Edit: Both stocks were up on the news of BTC purchases (SQ and MSTR).......it's hard to imagine other CEOs didn't take note.

I could see an opportunity heading into the election if DXY sees some strength.....that's if correlation is still strong between BTC and SPY.

Average in.....if you have $1000 to throw at it, put in a $100 for the next 10 weeks (or months). Personally, I think we're going a lot higher in 2021.

The on-chain guys are excited as well:
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1313...06496?s=20
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BTC is almost 13k and JJG isn’t posting?
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(09-27-2020, 05:52 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(09-27-2020, 05:08 AM)floridaman Wrote: This is a thread about BTC not investments.

Try to stay on topic kids.Smile

That's funny....  It was you who brought up real estate above to make a factually inaccurate point about it in an effort to rationalize your "Ride Or Die" with BTC posture.  Some readers here wish to know just how superior real estate is vis a vis BTC speculating which is just a variation of the Greater Fool Theory.

The Greater Fool Theory, in short, is buying something with the thin hope that someone down the line will pay more for it than you paid for it.  Meanwhile you are holding something that has little to no tangible value unlike a business or a building that regularly generates profits.  This is where the BTC fanatics get it all wrong.  They'll end up paying for getting it wrong in the end.

If you want to dabble in BTC, please do so.  But if you are making large bets on it hoping it will make you rich, you'd be better off purchasing swamp land in Florida.

You do know that BTC is the best performing asset class...ever? Not to say it's gone up in a straight line of course. It can be extremely volatile - both ways.

By stating that BTC and by extension, blockchain, has little to no tangible value is certainly correct, since it is an intangible asset. But you shouldn't be scared of intangible assets, as apparently they make up 84% of all enterprise value on the S&P 500.

It's a very tired and old argument from naysayers that BTC (and cryptocurrencies in general) is like a ponzi scheme, scam or as you allude to, lulling fools to fomo into it, to ultimately get wrecked due to its value inevitably tanking. Yes, it has tanked, and will no doubt tank again, but they are merely buying opportunities, as it has always rebounded historically speaking (see Bob Loukas' "4 year cycle" videos for further info). Notwithstanding, there are opportunities for profits in both bear and bull markets, for those skilled in trading (i.e. non hodlers).

Edit. Just came across this Podcast where Dave Portnoy says Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme. Cogent rebuttal at 28:42.



It's incumbent on an investor of cryptos to have their finger on the pulse in this space, to have a sense of when it's over-bought and to have the appropriate exit strategy in place, ahead of time. Investing in crypto is not for everyone due to the emotional roller-coaster that it can be. There are bulls, bears, and pigs and it can be enticing to be a pig (greedy), but ironically the most risky as you don't want to be the one left holding the bag as it were. These are some of the types that poo-poo crypto, along with no-coiners and those with little understanding of the tech and market, because they got greedy (thinking the price will keep going up) and were too dumb to exit appropriately - whether that be taking profits on the way up or in a lump sum at a certain price point.

I'm excited where blockchain and digital asset technology is headed over the next 5 to 10 years and the value and efficiencies that it will bring to organisations and end users. I'm also, by now, not naive to the cyclical nature of the market in terms of price fluctuation.
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(10-31-2020, 02:03 AM)Windom Earle Wrote: You do know that BTC is the best performing asset class...ever? Not to say it's gone up in a straight line of course. It can be extremely volatile - both ways.
BTC is not an asset class, crypto-currencies as a whole constitute that.   

But to your claim, BTC is still about 30% off of its high of $19,783.  Moreover, it has only been trading since 2009 which is a ridiculously short amount of time for anyone to make that claim. 

You also neglect to mention that MOST people who own BTC did so AFTER its 2017 high price so they are still either down or making lukewarm gains.

That fact is, no one knows how BTC will fare in the long term.  You are obviously betting that it does well, but I think there are smarter ways to deploy large chunks of cash.

I personally think BTC will go the way of MySpace when central banks roll out digital currencies en masse and government-friendly competitors like Libra get up and going.  BTC is slow, very expensive to continue mining and decentralized (which is a selling point for some).  But as governments get more involved and start regulating BTC out of use, it will languish at best and tank at worst.

It is also said that 23% of all BTC is unrecoverable forever due to lost tokens, deaths of owners, and otherwise.  That will only stand to increase over time and people will gravitate toward safer alternatives.
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Countries For Future Travel:  Norway, Sweden, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bosnia, Macedonia, Moldova, Uzbekistan.
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@contr

"BTC is not an asset class, crypto-currencies as a whole constitute that."---Decentralization.

"I personally think BTC will go the way of MySpace when central banks roll out digital currencies en masse and government-friendly competitors like Libra get up and going. BTC is slow, very expensive to continue mining and decentralized (which is a selling point for some). But as governments get more involved and start regulating BTC out of use, it will languish at best and tank at worst."

lol. "Myspace"....you're comparing apples to oranges there. Social media versus monetary system. "Libra"...yeah what libra did shook the nation states (but the government can regulate FB and Zuck).....with Bitcoin there is no founder/company to regulate...."owned by everyone and no one."

Iran is now allowing imports to be funded with BTC: https://www.coindesk.com/iran-amends-law...tocurrency

Do you know what game theory is?

"BUt THey'll BaN iT!"......just lol.Contrarian....what do you think Bitcoin is? Honest question.
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(11-01-2020, 04:50 PM)Nolimitz Wrote: "BUt THey'll BaN iT!"......just lol.Contrarian....what do you think Bitcoin is? Honest question.

Governments don't have to outright ban Bitcoin for its price to run off a cliff.  The question isn't if Bitcoin will be around in some form or another indefinitely.  The question is if government action will disrupt the Bitcoin status quo (and its price action).

Bitcoin's main point of failure is, and always has been, unregulated exchanges.  Nowadays, there are a few large exchanges responsible for the volume, and much of that volume is derivatives.  Derivatives may also have an outsized influence on the spot price.

Governments have several reasons to go after these exchanges:

1.  Lack of anti-money laundering and know your customer controls.  This is the big one, as it facilitates tax evasion and laundering criminal proceeds.
2.  Facilitation of capital flight (this takes a similar form as money laundering, but doesn't necessarily have underlying criminality, although it often does).
3.  Selling unlicensed derivative products to retail customers, especially those that reside in the U.S.
4.  Competition with their own upcoming sovereign digital currency offerings.

Enforcement has started to happen:

CFTC Charges BitMEX Owners with Illegally Operating a Cryptocurrency Derivatives Trading Platform and Anti-Money Laundering Violations
OKEx Founder ‘Star’ Xu Held in Police Custody: Report
The US Crypto Enforcement Framework Is a Warning to International Exchanges
Digital yuan rush and OTC crackdown

There has been no enforcement action with Binance yet, but here are supposed details on how Binance has been trying to evade U.S. regulators:

Leaked ‘Tai Chi’ Document Reveals Binance’s Elaborate Scheme To Evade Bitcoin Regulators

And also Bitmex allegedly cleaning out their exchange and making a run for it:

BitMEX officials allegedly 'looted' $440 million from exchange after learning about U.S. charges, per lawsuit filing

And of course Tether printing has been going parabolic, currently at $16.6 billion marketcap and responsible for the majority of all crypto volume.  That investigation keeps moving along:

New York Court Approves Investigation Into $10 Billion Cryptocurrency Created By A Presidential Candidate

The reality is that significant regulatory action is here and will be persistent.  The impact to Bitcoin price is debatable, but I can't see this having no impact.  I get the macro argument for investing in something like Bitcoin, but there are similar investments (e.g., precious metals) that don't have the same baggage.

And yes, I've posted about these topics many times before, and it has taken much longer for enforcement to arrive than I've expected.  These things take a long time.  It took at least two years for the feds to shut down Liberty Reserve for example.

Also, can we skip all the standard arguments: "You just don't understand Bitcoin", "Bitcoin is scarce and has a fixed supply", "Bitcoin can't be shut down", "Bitcoin has performed well in the past", etc.

If you're a proponent of Bitcoin at this point, I think the intellectually honest argument is, "Yes, all of these unprecedented regulations will be enforced, and Tether/crooked exchanges will collapse, but the Bitcoin price will continue to skyrocket over the long term because of X."

In my opinion, Bitcoin proponents underestimate the boost that all of this illicit activity has given it.  I'm not even saying don't buy Bitcoin.  But if you believe in it for the long term, why not plan to swoop in after all the wreckage?
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What wallet would you guys recommend (Android and Windows user)? Also, what's the best way to cash out your Bit Coin (and convert to USD)?
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Holy fucking ca-ching man.

Pushing $16k now.

I figured it would go up on what looks like a Biden win but not that fast.
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Feels comfy.

Anticipate blow off top soon.....preparing for correction (dry powder).
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Why is bitcoin going up right now!?! I know there are some hardcore crypto guys, but if your answer has anything to do with something that hasn't changed over the past 5 years (ie the gov't is printing so much money, the economic system is a house of cards, etc.) your answer is invalid.

Is it the uncertainty in the US elections? This is my best guess...but why? It started about 2 weeks before the election. Is something else at play?

I've been invested in bitcoin since 2013 with a $2 investment...since then I've slowly piled in my investments. Today I have nearly 100% my investments in crypto. I did this in late-2017, luckily mostly before the rise, but also during. I've doubled my money. Should I sell?

Here's my big holdup with bitcoin:
1) I don't fucking understand it
2) the people who could most use it, are unable (would be helluva lot easier to pay my guatemalan teacher in bitcoin rather than going through a third party to paypal it with the shit exchange rate)
3) it's very complicated (not to understand, that's point #1) to use and secure. Coinbase kinda solves this problem, but I've got codes and passwords, and hard wallets, and cold wallets, and recoery codes, this shit is COMPLEX. It scares me I'm going to forget something at some point. Maybe one day this will become the norm, but I'm uncomfortable with it.

UPDATE: looks like bitcoin price is mostly due to the rise in my portfolio, the others have risen, but not nearly as much as bitcoin.
OLG 9, DG 8, NG 5
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The government has destroyed many small businesses and livelihoods with it's lockdowns, I think all the uncertainty is why it's getting close to 20k
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It's deflationary, more and more large companies are moving to the blockchain. There are a lot more institutions getting involved and the halving occurred back in May. If it wasn't for the Covid crash back in March we'd probably be at 30k by now. I don't think the Covid has helped bitcoin right now, possibly long term. This bull run is going to be epic, I think we see 6 figures and those who remained patient and accumulated during the bear market the past few years will be heavily rewarded.
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Lot's of nonsense from no coiners, bitcoin naysayers and shitcoin pumpeners in this thread in recent months.  Thanks to Nolimitz, Floridaman (too bad banned), Windom Earle and perhaps a few other members here and there for maintaining some sanity and perspective regarding both the subject matter of this thread and keeping some of the misleading nonsense into perspective.

We should think that those guys would have found another thread to post their nonsense, but surely during times of bitcoin UPpity actions, the no coiners, bitcoin naysayers and shitcoin pumpeners do tend to want to make their appearances, even though they are likely going to look pretty damned foolish, even though it could take 50 years for some of these shitcoins to really die...   But the nonsense is still going to be there to suggest that either bitcoin is dead or on its way towards moar deader.

Since about early September, largely we had seen BTC prices break above and beyond at least three resistance points at $12,500, $13,880 and $17,250.. and really NOT very much resistance ended up playing out at any of those points - so of course, they could end up getting revisited.. possibly...   revisiting prior resistance points to see if they become support or if they can be converted back into resistance is a possibility but NOT a condition precedent for BTC prices to continue UPpity... which seems to be the slightly more probable scenario.

So, since about November 16, we had entered into No man's zone which is the price range between about $17,250 and $23,500...... and surely we did have a few days of bouncing below no man's zone around November 26, but largely we have remained towards the lower range of no man's zone... where the odds continue to remain good for upwards movement through this zone, even though there could be some bouncing in and out before finally breaking above it at some point in the next 3-6 months (of course, no guarantees of anything in bitcoinlandia).

And, yes a few posters did mention the Microstrategies situation, including Michael Saylor's ongoing BTC purchases and a bit of a institutional contagion that seems to be happening and even he seems to be pushing such attempts at contagion with his overly (which means over the top) bullish actions and even his multiple interviews on the topic which are quite articulate and shows that he figured out bitcoin quite quickly - even though he is even pissing off some longer term bitcoin bulls with the extent of his various bitcoin views - which largely do seem to show that he gets bitcoin pretty damned well.
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JJG I thought you fucked off somewhere just to enjoy your gains? Didn’t expect to see you back.
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(12-12-2020, 04:38 PM)SC87 Wrote: JJG I thought you fucked off somewhere just to enjoy your gains? Didn’t expect to see you back.

Ah ha.

Well, I do stay active in keeping up with bitcoin matters, so it is not like I am out of touch on the topic, even though you are correct, as the BTC price goes higher, there likely should be fewer reasons to pay as much attention to the matter and just live life and cash out of bitcoin to the extent that the value might be needed (or wanted) for various expenses along the way.

So, far I have continued to be pretty boring with my bitcoin and not really changing very much in what I do in regards to bitcoin because I mostly have not tapped into any of my BTC...  boring.. yes, I know....  No erratic changes in me, my sometimes difficult personality nor my activities - though I am probably going to end up participating in some of the traveling threads - and sure my recent travels may or may not have anything that has to be shared, but there might be some aspect in there that might be helpful to guys.. though moving around a lot sometimes does include a lot of busy work rather than just mere funzies, too.   

Back to topic, even if some guys perceive that BTC price seems to be all over the place (does not seem to be so for me, because even though the BTC price moves have been a bit short-term exponential in the upwardly direction, they are largely within models and expectations - even though the three resistance areas of $12,500, $13,880, and $17,250 had been quite decisively broken through), and largely, I just let the BTC price come to me and the places in which I have orders that might trigger along the way.  So, I just maintain the same system of selling small quantities of BTC as the price goes up (which has even shrunk to selling even less than 1% for every 10% rise and then the increments of the rise for each sale have gotten a bit bigger along the way, too) and buying BTC with the proceeds from the sales if the price goes down which is first triggered at about an 8% dip from the last sale, and then every 2% to 3.5% thereafter - depending on how I am feeling regarding the aggressiveness of the buy backs.. so there continues to be activity with me in that regard - even though there could be some value to letting the value of the BTC ride or maybe just making the buy/sell spreads a bit BIGGER or the increments between triggered sales or triggered buys larger in order to give even fewer shits about whether the BTC price goes up or down... but maybe I just like my system, too much.. and watching aspects of bitcoin along the way?

Sure, currently, BTC prices remain in a very great place.. as I mentioned in my earlier post - seeming to mostly bouncing around in the lower levels of "no man's land" so far...
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(10-31-2020, 07:13 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(10-31-2020, 02:03 AM)Windom Earle Wrote: You do know that BTC is the best performing asset class...ever? Not to say it's gone up in a straight line of course. It can be extremely volatile - both ways.
BTC is not an asset class, crypto-currencies as a whole constitute that.   

But to your claim, BTC is still about 30% off of its high of $19,783.  Moreover, it has only been trading since 2009 which is a ridiculously short amount of time for anyone to make that claim. 

You also neglect to mention that MOST people who own BTC did so AFTER its 2017 high price so they are still either down or making lukewarm gains.

That fact is, no one knows how BTC will fare in the long term.  You are obviously betting that it does well, but I think there are smarter ways to deploy large chunks of cash.

I personally think BTC will go the way of MySpace when central banks roll out digital currencies en masse and government-friendly competitors like Libra get up and going.  BTC is slow, very expensive to continue mining and decentralized (which is a selling point for some).  But as governments get more involved and start regulating BTC out of use, it will languish at best and tank at worst.

It is also said that 23% of all BTC is unrecoverable forever due to lost tokens, deaths of owners, and otherwise.  That will only stand to increase over time and people will gravitate toward safer alternatives.

I honestly don't think you can get around the bolded although the comparison to MySpace might be a stretch. Governments and globalist conglomerates are going to coopt this sooner or later. There is evidence that this has already begun. I can't get into more detail because of the rules here but the PWTB are stronger than ever (ahem the election) and they will never hand over their monetary control, however rotten and corrupt their system may be.
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(12-12-2020, 06:29 PM)Viejo Sabio Wrote:
(10-31-2020, 07:13 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(10-31-2020, 02:03 AM)Windom Earle Wrote: You do know that BTC is the best performing asset class...ever? Not to say it's gone up in a straight line of course. It can be extremely volatile - both ways.
BTC is not an asset class, crypto-currencies as a whole constitute that.   

But to your claim, BTC is still about 30% off of its high of $19,783.  Moreover, it has only been trading since 2009 which is a ridiculously short amount of time for anyone to make that claim. 

You also neglect to mention that MOST people who own BTC did so AFTER its 2017 high price so they are still either down or making lukewarm gains.

That fact is, no one knows how BTC will fare in the long term.  You are obviously betting that it does well, but I think there are smarter ways to deploy large chunks of cash.

I personally think BTC will go the way of MySpace when central banks roll out digital currencies en masse and government-friendly competitors like Libra get up and going.  BTC is slow, very expensive to continue mining and decentralized (which is a selling point for some).  But as governments get more involved and start regulating BTC out of use, it will languish at best and tank at worst.

It is also said that 23% of all BTC is unrecoverable forever due to lost tokens, deaths of owners, and otherwise.  That will only stand to increase over time and people will gravitate toward safer alternatives.

I honestly don't think you can get around the bolded although the comparison to MySpace might be a stretch. Governments and globalist conglomerates are going to coopt this sooner or later. There is evidence that this has already begun. I can't get into more detail because of the rules here but the PWTB are stronger than ever (ahem the election) and they will never hand over their monetary control, however rotten and corrupt their system may be.

I am not sure what PWTB means.

Regarding what we can talk about and what we cannot, I presume that you are referring to politics, and sure stay the fuck away from statements about what you would wish, blah blah blah... but if you are attempting to describe factual matters and reasonable projections that might happens, then that should be fair game.  Maybe you want to deviate, but just try to stick to "is" statements rather than "wishful thinking" type assertions.

Bitcoin has been built for some of the governmental attacks, so there can be considerable trade-offs for various ways that governments might try to attack bitcoin and then if they find it to be worth it for them to engage in such an attack when that might end up causing a kind of wacamole effect but also forcing a going underground and even jurisdictional arbitrage - which could be a pretty big loss and even BIGGER challenge to the US if they were to attempt to play too much hard ball.

Of course, any guy deciding whether to invest in bitcoin is going to consider how he is going to deal with these kinds of potential government attacks and how much to possibly stay within the system and/or outside of the system or various kinds of tactics to not become a target and still be able to profit from bitcoin (if he considers that there is a profit play there).. Not all guys are going to come to the same conclusions regarding how much to allocate to bitcoin (if any) and what kinds of ways that he might attempt to deal with any kinds of various levels of complications whether it is dealing with KYC AML or even making certain kinds of disclosures that might be overreaching, even unnecessary and surely vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction - including which kinds of services that guys choose to use or to experiment with.. whether we are talking fully compliant services that might not allow guys to keep the private keys or more loosely compliant services that are going to vary in their current requirements that will likely change with the passage of time, too.
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I'm not against Crypto in principle. I get that many want to be freed of the fiat nightmare, just think it is very naive to think that this can't be coopted and neutralized. I fully realize that in the interim some of you will make out well. I'd rather invest in something more tangible, the horror stories of lost bitcoins is quite real. Yes it can work technically but for me I find it too easy to hack, to lose and often way too ponderous to use. Now I'm done. For those of you who disagree forge ahead and I hope you make a bundle.
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