The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics)
(03-14-2020, 11:05 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: As a counterbalance to the shameless shilling driving Bitcoin holders into ruin on this thread, this guy has a good understanding of what is ACTUALLY going on.





Don't feed the Bitcoin SHILLS (no names of course)!

Did you even watch the whole video, Contrarian?

Yeah, it's an 17-minute video and the guy (the crypto lark) is irritating as fuck in the first half of the video or so, and both seems to be so excited about everything going down and the extremeness of the panic everywhere in the market across asset classes.  So, beyond the title of the video, crypto lark seems to be engaging in a bit of a parody and exaggeration, including the title of the video, which you, Contrarian, seemed to have missed because you likely did not watch (or understand) the whole video, and you were merely trying to find something that would support your doom and gloom nonsense or your waiting for $2k prices that don't seem too likely to happen (even if their odds are currently higher than they were last week).

Surely towards the beginning of the market, he seems to be making some of the same intellectual mistake of asserting that none of this has happened before - especially the context of all markets crashing together, which sure there might be some truth in those kinds of assertions, but it also seems to be overly exaggerating.. because bitcoin has had wild ass corrections in the past, and sure no two corrections are going to play out the same.. but even this correction is not really out of line of the various currently valid bullish BTC price prediction models of stock to flow, four year fractal and scurve adoption based on network/metcalfe effects.

Crypto Lark also seems to consider ethereum to be something to buy at these prices... (which maybe a bit of a fuzziness in his thinking, even though he could be correct in the short term, ethereum is likely NOT a very good longer term asset) but he does also seem to be both a HODLer of bitcoin and someone who is buying more BTC at these prices rather than selling, understands that bitcoin is likely sound money and there are a decent number of folks who are NOT selling their bitcoin or going to be shaken out of their bitcoin .. even with further price falling, if it happens.. look at the 12-minute or so mark in the video and thereafter where he makes some of the case for bitcoin.. but sure, who knows exactly where the bitcoin bottom is going to be or how much bitcoin is going to be correlated to the rest of various market assets upon recovery?  presuming that some kind of recovery comes at some point.

Furthermore, crypto lark seems to have recorded his excitement in that video on thursday night, which was (so far) the maximum of the bottom of this particular correction, so he had not yet seen the subsequent bounce on friday.. and the more or less stabilization on saturday within a bit of a higher price range in the lower $5ks, for now, not that these subsequent price moves would necessarily change either his apparent dramatic attempts at excitement about such price dropping across all markets.. because seems that a lot of markets have kind of recovered together on friday.. so we will see how they play out when they are opening on monday (if they open).. bitcoin markets do not tend to close.. even though some exchanges might run into various bugs or even have some closing issues, but the whole of bitcoin trading does not shut down.. and there are likely to be trading avenues with bitcoin, even if some exchanges do end up temporarily (or permanently) shutting down.

At first, I conjectured that the fat lil fuck might be you, Contrarian, but he actually seems smarter than you (in spite of his kind of fag-like drama), and he both already holds bitcoin and seems to have been buying on the way down, including attempting to figure out how much BTC to buy at these prices and how much to maybe wait for lower BTC prices, if they come... 

In the end, who really knows about either whether the bottom of $3,850 is "in" for this cycle or if there are going to be some BTC buying points in either this lower $5ks area or in the sub $5ks that might be prudent next points to buy BTC... 

Ultimately, my system related to BTC does not engage in substantive attempts to figure out these kinds of ongoing short-term BTC price move matters beyond merely trying to make sure that I still have some cash available on an ongoing basis, if I need to buy more BTC or if the BTC price continues to go lower.  We will see, and yeah, it could take months (or maybe even a year or longer) for these market dynamics and correlation (or lack thereof) matters to sort themselves out.... and how bitcoin will perform relative to other asset classes in these kinds of interesting times does still remain an ongoing question to continue to observe and to perhaps stay tuned.. and to figure out what your stake is going to be and how to play such stake, allocations and all of that and of course, attempt to make informed contributions to this thread without panicking too much in these times.  Is it possible?  Is it possible?  Perhaps.
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If any guy is curious about the ongoing validity of the stock to flow model, here's some tweeted arguments from PlanB, to make you feel moar better:   hopefully.

Quote:  

>>>>>>There is a big misunderstanding about the stock-to-flow model: that 1 red dot outside the blue bands invalidates the model. That is not true! Red dots have been below the band in 2010,2012,2016,2019 and above in 2011,2013,2017. But co-integration is strong, even now at $5300.<<<<<


 https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/statu...39782?s=20

[Image: ETVkRg_WAAIY2VM?format=jpg&name=small]


Here's some co-integration discussion, too.

https://btconometrics.com/

And, a meter and discussion that was shared on bitcointalk by Fillippone:
 
Here's a sample meter:

[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FWQQlA1D.p...71EQKe5TCg]
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Here's a nice little constructive advice tweet suggesting how to spend your $1k distribution, if you happen to be eligible.

https://twitter.com/22loops/status/1240004737614909442

Quote:

>>>>>How to spend your government stimulus.

- Hookers $150
- Blow $200
- Food 'like $5'
- Bitcoin $645

<<<<
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A bit crazy that Wall Street folks are begging for the stock market to be shut down... 

https://www.ccn.com/dow-jones-in-freefal...-shutdown/

Bitcoin does not seem to have this kind of shut off switch, but I suppose exchanges could attempt to collude to shut down, but I doubt that it would be very effective since other exchanges that stay open would then be making more profits based on other exchanges choosing to close down.
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Large amount of bitcoins sent to exchanges in the past week or so, and the most sent on March 12 and 13.

https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/bit...march-2020


[Image: 5e72717c7c1c00d47b95cd5e_3M843JAusoAyK9c...LglcAD.png]

Furthermore, here's an interesting conclusion from the article:

Quote:

>>>
The extra 712,000 bitcoin that came to exchanges represents just 5% of the 14.52 million available bitcoin (we calculate available bitcoin by subtracting the 3.75 million lost bitcoin from the 18.27 million total bitcoin mined). Exchanges hold around 4 million of the 14.52 million bitcoin (our lower bound estimate is 2 million and the upper is 5.5 million). As we describe above, while some of this will have been recently traded, it does not appear to have been excessively traded and exchange balances have increased. But even if we made the extreme, nearly impossible assumption that all 4 million bitcoin held on exchanges was sold, there are at least 9.8 million bitcoin — 67% of all available bitcoin — that didn’t “head for the exit.”
<<<<<
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The below image is interestingly comparing bitcoin to the stock markets, gold, silver, and the dollar:

A decoupling concept...   go figure.... NOT that bitcoin was ever really coupled with any of those in any kind of meaningful way, except maybe in the short term.. somewhat.  Will be interesting to see folks who fail/refuse to see value in bitcoin or to take a stake in bitcoin (or even to shave off their bitcoin when the price went down) to get left behind.  Interesting... interesting.

[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ibb.co%2FVJdXnJG%2FC7...wiXd0YUK6g]


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=...sg54057628
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Here's a nice contemporary image for the unbelievers and bitcoin naysayers.


[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia2.giphy.com%2Fmedi...lLn_fFyqgQ]
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This somewhat contemporary graph seems to highlight that both BTC's dip was greater than the dip of the stock market, and that BTC is still somewhat relatively below the stock market, in terms of its recovery.  Context might also spin this matter in different ways, too... but maybe a more interesting question will concern where these markets will be going from their current places.

[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FsNfeN2s.p...sO-yddT95w]
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Here's another comparison BTC chart that shows moving averages and Mayer multiple that shows BTC prices had been above the lines of the previous 4-year fractal, yet currently, BTC prices (MAs and mayer multiple) are quite a bit below the earlier lines.

[Image: ETj4nlcU4AI0uW6?format=png&name=small]


https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/124...9669807105
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Here's an interesting article about the current delisting of trading pairs, including speculating reasons that Bitfinex is engaged in such large scale delisting of about 100 trading pairs.

https://bitcoinist.com/bitfinex-removes-...ing-pairs/

Difficult to know exactly how these kinds of matters affect bitcoin specifically, except perhaps sometimes bringing a bit more validity to bitcoin by excluding and implying that several of the other coins are NOT very useful to some exchanges because they cannot even generate a sufficient amount of trading traffic to justify their maintenance.
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(03-19-2020, 09:03 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: Here's a nice contemporary image for the unbelievers and bitcoin naysayers.


[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia2.giphy.com%2Fmedi...lLn_fFyqgQ]

We're probably in for a sluggish economy after all this Corona virus mess...and that's assuming we develop a vaccine. My money is on bitcoin and I have cash ready to swoop (pun intended).
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(03-20-2020, 08:17 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote:
(03-19-2020, 09:03 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: Here's a nice contemporary image for the unbelievers and bitcoin naysayers.


[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia2.giphy.com%2Fmedi...lLn_fFyqgQ]

We're probably in for a sluggish economy after all this Corona virus mess...and that's assuming we develop a vaccine. My money is on bitcoin and I have cash ready to swoop (pun intended).

It remains difficult to have any kind of solid assessment regarding when the overall macro correction is going to be done, and therefore, any short-term BTC bounce might be short-lived, too.... but yeah, overall, even if BTC does not perform the opposite of traditional markets, there may be some points in which it is depreciating less... and in theory there also might be some points in which it is also recovering better.   So, yeah, how much you keep in bitcoin or if you either begin to inject more into bitcoin rather than other traditional assets will remain discretionary with likely a decently wide variety of outcomes to be measured in the coming years... to figure out if which guys or getting reckt or potentially prospering (or getting reckt less) through their investment choices.
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Funny that even seemingly very intelligent and influential bitcoin bulls, cannot figure out ways to make sure that they are profitable in either UP or down markets.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-he...rop-to-38k

In August 2019, Murad Mahmudov, former Goldman Sachs analyst and the Chief Investment Officer at Adaptive Capital tweeted to show that he understood both negative and positive possible BTC price directions. see below link.

https://twitter.com/MustStopMurad/status...7798498304
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(03-20-2020, 08:17 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote:
(03-19-2020, 09:03 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: Here's a nice contemporary image for the unbelievers and bitcoin naysayers.


[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia2.giphy.com%2Fmedi...lLn_fFyqgQ]

We're probably in for a sluggish economy after all this Corona virus mess...and that's assuming we develop a vaccine. My money is on bitcoin and I have cash ready to swoop (pun intended).
Why are you even holding cash if you are so bullish on Bitcoin?  It probably is because you understand (deep down) that it has a wealth-destroying history and even its cheerleading shills remain broke because of it.

You are already way from last month yet you still wish to tout it as if one broke coinholder is simply not enough.
Have you ever noticed it is your haters who obsessively read your every post, comment on them with the most emotion, and expend so much energy desperately trying to engage you?  It's because haters are your greatest, most loyal, and dedicated fans; they just have not come to terms with it yet.  Enjoy them because they are the surest sign that you're slaying it in life!  Big Grin
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(03-21-2020, 12:20 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(03-20-2020, 08:17 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote:
(03-19-2020, 09:03 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: Here's a nice contemporary image for the unbelievers and bitcoin naysayers.


[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia2.giphy.com%2Fmedi...lLn_fFyqgQ]

We're probably in for a sluggish economy after all this Corona virus mess...and that's assuming we develop a vaccine. My money is on bitcoin and I have cash ready to swoop (pun intended).
Why are you even holding cash if you are so bullish on Bitcoin?  It probably is because you understand (deep down) that it has a wealth-destroying history and even its cheerleading shills remain broke because of it.

You are already way from last month yet you still wish to tout it as if one broke coinholder is simply not enough.

Glad to see that you are back, Contrarian.. (well maybe I am exaggerating a wee bit?)

Nice and recharged and ready to battle with nonsensical conclusory assertions.

You have quite a few assumptions built into your various above statements.  Are you trying to suggest that bitcoin is performing worse than other assets?  Are you selecting the time-frame in which you are making such assertions?  

You are implying that you have some kind of superior investing strategy, so why the fuck do you come back to this thread, when the only thing that you have to offer is the suggestion that guys wait for $2k?  Have you thought of any other angle? If not, then your contributions are not coming off as very helpful.  

You are not even suggesting that guys short BTC down to $2k, so in essence your BTC investment strategy continues to be merely to wait for $2k before investing.  How could that strategy deserve any further discussion?  Why don't we just wait for a bit longer to see if your investment thesis plays out, otherwise your pie in the sky ideas (not based on factual or logical reality) seem to be quite irrelevant to this thread, no?

By the way, fuck off with your strawman assertion about lack of commitment from anyone holding cash.. Are you a fucking diptwit?  No one is saying to go into anything, including bitcoin, with 100% commitment, or at least not any sane people are making such suggestions.  Of course, guys are going to vary regarding their allocations, and even I tend to start with suggestions of 1% to 10% as a starting point to consider for a starting bitcoin allocation; however, certainly there can be circumstances to justify allocations outside or that range.. but frequently, I would assert that someone is a bit crazy to have less than a 1% allocation, unless their timeline is really low, such as being close to death or having some emergency or cashflow needs, such as dire poverty, that does not provide them with any ability to invest, and there are likely those kinds of people... including the fact that many guys should be making sure that he has his personal finances in somewhat order before investing anyhow.. which means, assessing his cashflow, other investment, view of bitcoin as compared with other assets, timeline and available time and skills to research, manage portfolio, trade and/or tweak his investment strategy matters from time to time.
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Contrarian,

I hold cash for liquidity. If I want to purchase stocks, bitcoin, etc I'll be ready. I'm not going all in on anything. Just generally speaking I'm watching everything play out. If there's opportunities to buy assets to stock up my store I will do that. If there's bank runs or restrictions on financial transactions I'll be ready. Very interesting times for someone that hates MSM bullshit.

As far as BTC goes I'm holding on until it hits 100K and then I probably will sell. This disease will either make me a millionaire or I will be dead. At that point I might renounce my citizenship. Let's see how/if the Overton Window ever shifts to BTC as an alternative (which I doubt).
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Here's a recent post from PlanB regarding the current stock to flow status, and despite some of the recent price moves, cannot hardly even see much of a significant deviation from what the model predicts

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/statu...8422140930

[Image: ETi47QYWAAEXS6_?format=png&name=small]

You can see that the 2012 halvening took around 4-6 months to get the BTC price to catch up to where the model had suggested it should raise; however, the 2016 halvening took close to a year to get into the then higher moved part of the stock to flow prediction line.  This time how long will it take?  You can see from the graph that the post halvening line is around $100k.  Pie in the sky?  Are you prepared either way, if it does or if it does not?
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Here's a tweet thread of a series of recent bitcoin (crypto) news articles.

https://twitter.com/crypto_news24/status...5148826630


Including this recent article from Binance CEO CZ that argues that the recent BTC price crash does not establish that BTC is NOT a safe haven asset.

https://cryptonews.watch/bitcoin-is-a-sa...ce-ceo-cz/
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(03-21-2020, 11:08 AM)ChicagoFire Wrote: Contrarian,

I hold cash for liquidity. If I want to purchase stocks, bitcoin, etc I'll be ready. I'm not going all in on anything. Just generally speaking I'm watching everything play out. If there's opportunities to buy assets to stock up my store I will do that. If there's bank runs or restrictions on financial transactions I'll be ready. Very interesting times for someone that hates MSM bullshit.

As far as BTC goes I'm holding on until it hits 100K and then I probably will sell. This disease will either make me a millionaire or I will be dead. At that point I might renounce my citizenship. Let's see how/if the Overton Window ever shifts to BTC as an alternative (which I doubt).

I know and you are stating the obvious.  That question was posed specifically to JJG as to why HE is holding cash when he is so 100%, "Be in Bitcoin come hell or high water."  Seems he is not so bullish on Bitcoin after all even though he is touting it as the be all and end all investment for everyone else here.

The hypocrisy in his "advice" and "recommendations" is so thick that it must be called out.
Have you ever noticed it is your haters who obsessively read your every post, comment on them with the most emotion, and expend so much energy desperately trying to engage you?  It's because haters are your greatest, most loyal, and dedicated fans; they just have not come to terms with it yet.  Enjoy them because they are the surest sign that you're slaying it in life!  Big Grin
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(03-22-2020, 02:32 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(03-21-2020, 11:08 AM)ChicagoFire Wrote: Contrarian,

I hold cash for liquidity. If I want to purchase stocks, bitcoin, etc I'll be ready. I'm not going all in on anything. Just generally speaking I'm watching everything play out. If there's opportunities to buy assets to stock up my store I will do that. If there's bank runs or restrictions on financial transactions I'll be ready. Very interesting times for someone that hates MSM bullshit.

As far as BTC goes I'm holding on until it hits 100K and then I probably will sell. This disease will either make me a millionaire or I will be dead. At that point I might renounce my citizenship. Let's see how/if the Overton Window ever shifts to BTC as an alternative (which I doubt).

I know and you are stating the obvious.  That question was posed specifically to JJG as to why HE is holding cash when he is so 100%, "Be in Bitcoin come hell or high water."  Seems he is not so bullish on Bitcoin after all even though he is touting it as the be all and end all investment for everyone else here.

Seems that I already answered that question, you fucking twisting facts dweeb (contrarian). This thread, here, is about sharing bitcoin information, and guys can choose whatever the fuck they want to choose in terms of investments and in terms of allocations.

Bitcoin happens to be a great investment for a variety of reasons including is likely ongoing lack of correlation to other asset classes, so as a long term strategy, it is a great consideration for any guy to consider how much to allocate, and surely 1% to 10% of his assets into bitcoin would be a good starting point for consideration.

Of course, my own investment situation may well be quite different from a large number of guys because I have been into BTC since late 2013, so I largely accomplished my accumulation goals in 2013 and 2014; however, I did continue to DCA into bitcoin and to add new money in 2015 and 2016, and probably a lot less so after 2017, and kind of went into a bit of a maintenance mode. I suppose every once in a while I might add a bit more new money to my BTC stash, but largely I am mostly maintaining it and not really injecting new money.

At some point, I will go into a liquidation phase, which I consider to start by just withdrawing, on average, about 1% per quarter, with a kind of presumption that the investment will on average continue to earn at least that amount, so I would not really be withdrawing principle, at least when measured in dollar value... but of course, through such a liquidation practice, theoretically, the number of BTC would likely become less and less and less through the years.. but as long as the dollar value on average is going up at least 4% per year, then the dollar value should be going up through that same time.

So, again, get the fuck out of here, with your nonsense about any semblance of a recommendation that anyone should go 100% into any investment, and even myself, I had a pretty fucking decent amount of money before I got into BTC and a relatively decent diversification; however, even when I got into bitcoin, I had been considering various possible kinds of investment vehicles that might NOT be so correlated to the dollar because when I had looked across all of the asset classes of my investments, I had considered that they were pretty dependent upon the dollars ongoing performance, so I was fearing some lack of diversification.. and accordingly, I was looking for an investment that I perceived to be kind of like physical gold, but without some of the seeming encumbrances of physical gold, and when I came across bitcoin, I considered that bitcoin may well fit the bill for a dollar hedge kind of investment, and that is why I invested into it.. initially, and probably the first 6 months of my investment into bitcoin, I was kind of exploring bitcoin as an option and I authorized myself an amount to invest that added up to around 1% to 2% of my overall quasi-liquid investments, and I authorized myself to DCA into bitcoin over those first 6 months while I continued to study into the matter and to verify that I was going to be comfortable with a larger hedge which ended up being my 10% target by the end of 2014.

Ultimately, guys have to consider what is their target amount that they want to invest, whether it is 1% to 10% or some other amount, and surely once they reach their target, then they can reconsider their strategy from there in terms if they want to attempt to maintain 1% to 10% or if they want to change their allocation.

With my particular situation, my investment into bitcoin went a bit higher than 10%, and since I had thereafter continued to DCA into BTC during 2015, we likely realize what happened with BTC between late 2015 and late 2017, which was about a 78x price appreciation, so accordingly, even though I had not changed too much of my traditional investments, their proportion of my portfolio shrunk relatively speaking and bitcoin became something like 75% or some fairly high number like that, and then when the BTC price corrected 85% of its value from $19,666 to $3,124, so then my allocation into BTC corrected back down to from 75% to something like 50% or so, and maybe currently my overall BTC allocation is floating around 60%.

Probably at various points in 2017, I had reconsidered my BTC investment strategies, both in terms of how much BTC I would cash out on the way UP (theorizing if BTC were to go up in price during that subsequent period), and how much I would just let the BTC portion of my investment largely "ride" within its own kind of subcategory that I would manage rather than periodically going back to my initial 10% allocation authorization.

In essence, part of my considerations around bitcoin stemmed upon initial concepts of not investing more than I felt that I could afford to lose, so all of my earlier investments were still in place and were largely still going to be able to support me whether or not bitcoin went to zero or even began to underperform or experienced wild-ass volatility cycles, which had already been shown to be part of its historical price performance pattern.

Another consideration, too, had been that on an ongoing basis, the BTC portion of my investment also had a decent profit cushion within it too, so even though I considered that I would be willing to ride BTC prices all the way back to zero if they were to go there, the fundamentals of BTC had never really sparked any concerns from me in terms of the solidness of BTC as a continued long-term investment, so even when there had continued to be 100s of proclamations that bitcoin was dead or going to die, the actual evidence continued to play out to the contrary, including several attack vectors that bitcoin was able to stave off, along the way, including some seemingly powerful ones in 2017.

(03-22-2020, 02:32 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: The hypocrisy in his "advice" and "recommendations" is so thick that it must be called out.

You are not calling out anyone, Contrarian, except for perhaps, on an ongoing basis making yourself appear like a bumbling and disingenuine fool who seems to derive substantial pleasures in twisting logic and facts.

A vast majority of my recommendations continue to be that guys tailor their investment into bitcoin or not according to their own situation. Of course, I suggest 1% to 10% as a starting consideration point for BTC, but in the end, guys have to decide for themselves whether they believe that will work for them. Furthermore, I am not in the business of giving advice, unless some guys might ask from time to time, so in essence, I could give less than two shits whether guys buy bitcoin or not, but I remain interested in sharing information regarding the topic, especially if any guy is actually genuinely striving to engage with the topic, which surely does not seem to be the case for you, contrarian.

You, contrarian, continue to act like a dweeb, and you hardly have contributed any substance to this thread... except perhaps continuing to assert that you are waiting for BTC prices to sink down to $2k before you are ready and willing to invest, yet even then, if such an unlikely BTC price drop were to occur, I have my doubts about whether you would actually be good for your word and to act upon that point, either, so even your speculations regarding what you are inclined to do in regards to BTC should be taken with a considerably LARGE-ASS grain of salt.
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