The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics)
Here's a nice series of relatively recent tweets that discuss how the panic level  in the streets seems to be up, but rational heads (in bitcoin) should realize that this is likely a BTC buying opportunity rather than selling (or at minimum to HODL) through the situation.  No guarantees of course, but continuing to buy BTC and having a decently long timeline has decent chances of paying off well, even in less than a two year timeline, even though I recommend having a longer timeline, especially for guys just getting into buying BTC now.

https://twitter.com/BurgerCryptoAM/statu...5689359360
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Here's an article from a few days ago that describes some proposed legislation that appears to be an attack on encryption, frequently these kinds of measures with the guise of "protecting the children."

https://www.wired.com/story/earn-it-act-...ncryption/
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I had listened to the 50 minute interview of Nick at coinometrics in the stephan livera podcast linked-here, and I thought that it was very interesting that when Nick rom coinometrics first got into bitcoin, he had engaged in a decently long endeavor to try to prove Plan B's stock to flow model to be wrong, yet in the end, Nick just felt that he had to concede about how seemingly likely such stock to flow model is actually somewhere close to being 100% correct... hahahahaha (my emphasis on 100%, not his).


Of course, Nick acknowledges that there could be subsequent evidence that establishes that the stock to flow model is not true, so any of us needs to continue to consider those kinds of possibilities..... and  in the end, I feel so fortunate that there continue to be so many smart people coming into the bitcoin knowledge spreading space, and frequently they are reinforcing already existing ideas, and even having a lot of skepticism from the start of their studies.. but acknowledging that they are relatively new to the bitcoin space.. but at the same time studying and building upon the work of others to add their perspectives, value and their informative and insightful contributions.

I am currently listening to Plan B getting interviewed on Anthony Pompliano's podcast again too, which Plan B;s mentioning of the Nick interview on Stephan Livera motivated me to post and share these linked (recent) podcasts, here.
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Here's a current snapshot of our four-year halvening candles.... which maybe shows why having a longer term time horizon remains a a good perspective.

Surely, those four-year halvening candles are getting shorter and shorter, but those candles continue as green, so far.

[Image: ESwR9FYUYAE_tBw?format=png&name=900x900]



https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/123...5137799168
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Robinhood not doing too good in recent times.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...ket-tumult


I have not personally used Robinhood, but there are likely quite a few people who got onboarded onto bitcoin through that platform, and maybe it is going to disappear.  Perhaps?  Perhaps?
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For those still holding this bag, it's not too late to sell.  Others are, and you can see BTC dominance rising, while the overall crypto marketcap is sinking.  This generally means people are selling all crypto, but BTC price is being supported somewhat because people have to buy BTC to get out of alts.  Once BTC dominance gets to 70% and higher, this price support may start to give way.  The failure of a major exchange or counterparty such as Robinhood may act as a catalyst to accelerate this process.
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(03-12-2020, 03:18 AM)Lampwick Wrote: For those still holding this bag, it's not too late to sell.  Others are, and you can see BTC dominance rising, while the overall crypto marketcap is sinking.  This generally means people are selling all crypto, but BTC price is being supported somewhat because people have to buy BTC to get out of alts.  Once BTC dominance gets to 70% and higher, this price support may start to give way.  The failure of a major exchange or counterparty such as Robinhood may act as a catalyst to accelerate this process.

Good luck if you are that dumb to be selling the hardest money the world has ever seen in this kind of money printing crisis.

Of course, we are going to see how all of this plays out, but frequently it is better to be buying on the way down rather than selling, at least in terms of bitcoin, and if you do not have any money to buy, then frequently, holding is going to have better outcomes than selling too.

Every guy is free to come to his own conclusion, yet in bitcoin's history (at least my short 6+ years in it), I have seen a lot of people get reckt by concluding that bitcoin price is going down when it ends up NOT going down.

Sure, of course, this time is different... we will see in the long run, and there surely is a lot of uncertainty that seems to be spread across almost all markets and asset classes, and so perhaps in the short term there might be some correlation (or seeming correlation) until there is not.

Where are you right now, Lampwick?  In dollars?  You hold any bitcoin or other crypto?  Do you have any planned entry points, or are you going to ride it out for several months until the coast is clear?  We do not have blood in the streets yet?  Perhaps?  Perhaps?

By the way, bitcoin has not even gotten back down to its December 2019 low, which would be $6,425, and surely I am not ruling it out and surely the odds of testing $6,425 support is greater than it had been, and surely there are a lot of people waiting for sub $5k coins, which seems a stretch, too, but surely not impossible, especially since $4,200 was our April 2019 jumping off point.  In any event, seems like a decently scary practice to either be selling on the way down (the opposite of what you should likely be doing with an asset like bitcoin) or even waiting for lower prices that might not come.  We will see.  We will see, but I suppose that we are going to be seeing a decent number of bitcoin naysayers and chicken little (sky is falling) peeps during times like this.

Strong hand... heard of that?   Wink

Edit:  
By the way, I don't really have any problem with your attempt to make some logical connection with other cryptos in terms of recent bitcoin price actions (or predicting future price actions), but you seem to be talking a bit too much of the party-line bullshit, as if bitcoin is propped up by shitcoins, when the opposite is actually true. Bitcoin is the leader in this space, yet it still can be both positively and negatively affected by froth in the space.

Accordingly, this last price pump, from December 2019 to mid February, had shown about a 63% price appreciation in bitcoin (from $6,425 to $10,500), and yeah a lot of the shitcoins had pumped even greater than bitcoin, so both bitcoin and shitcoins were likely due for a correction, and perhaps the shitcoins, also, needed to have some froth removed from them, and yeah those kinds of price dynamics can also have dragging effects on bitcoin... but bitcoin's price dynamics are not likely to be specifically dependent upon either the performance of various shitcoins or even the price performance of traditional markets (including macro market dynamics), even though in the short-term, it is quite unlikely that there is not going to be some correlation and price dragging effect upon bitcoin .. but in the longer run, let's see how these price correlation matters play out, including the strength of the various more credible BTC price prediction models (that are admittedly only recently being fleshed out), including the: 1) stock to flow model 2) four-year fractal modewl and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on metcalfe's law and networking effects.

BTC's price prediction models are not even really outside of range currently, so hardly time to panic yet.. but surely, you, Lampwick, seem to be arguing that there is froth in bitcoin as well as in other cryptos,... and we will see about how all of that plays out, won't we? 

Good luck with your selling of BTC (if you ever had any) or shorting BTC or whatever you are doing in regards to your lack of appreciation of the value of bitcoin in money printing and panic times like these (you will likely need it) I will admit that bitcoin has not really gone through any kind of world downturn, so it will be interesting to see how it performs, in times like these, that have potential (but still not certain, yet) for downturn.
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I am surprised that BTC is still tanking in lockstep with the stock market.  It is almost as if BTC holders are moving to cash in order to position themselves to buy up stocks on the cheap which would not be at all a bad strategy.

Whatever the case, no one knows what BTC will do in either the short term or the long term.  I am still hoping it goes down to my entry point of $2000.  Will it ever get there?  Perhaps not.  But "black swan" events like this virus tend to pull frothy markets back down towards the mean which would be the $3000 to $4000 range in my estimation.  That would be a good place for those on the sidelines to jump in but $2000 just makes it a much more compelling point for me to get skin back in the game.
Have you ever noticed it is your haters who obsessively read your every post, comment on them with the most emotion, and expend so much energy desperately trying to engage you?  It's because haters are your greatest, most loyal, and dedicated fans; they just have not come to terms with it yet.  Enjoy them because they are the surest sign that you're slaying it in life!  Big Grin
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(03-12-2020, 07:27 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: I am surprised that BTC is still tanking in lockstep with the stock market.  It is almost as if BTC holders are moving to cash in order to position themselves to buy up stocks on the cheap which would not be at all a bad strategy.

Whatever the case, no one knows what BTC will do in either the short term or the long term.  I am still hoping it goes down to my entry point of $2000.  Will it ever get there?  Perhaps not.  But "black swan" events like this virus tend to pull frothy markets back down towards the mean which would be the $3000 to $4000 range in my estimation.  That would be a good place for those on the sidelines to jump in but $2000 just makes it a much more compelling point for me to get skin back in the game.

I am not going to rule anything out, but still seems that your odds for $3k to $4k are even quite improbable currently.  If we go below $6k, then your odds would at least be approaching 50/50 to get somewhere into the $4ks.. one step at a time, and in the meantime, I just continue to buy on the way down... that has worked pretty decently for me, so far, and I have no reason to believe that it does not continue to be a viable and prudent strategy forward, at least in regards to bitcoin...
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JJG when you say “buy” do you mean with new $ or do you tether some BTC when you feel like it’s going down?
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(03-12-2020, 07:34 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(03-12-2020, 07:27 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: I am surprised that BTC is still tanking in lockstep with the stock market.  It is almost as if BTC holders are moving to cash in order to position themselves to buy up stocks on the cheap which would not be at all a bad strategy.

Whatever the case, no one knows what BTC will do in either the short term or the long term.  I am still hoping it goes down to my entry point of $2000.  Will it ever get there?  Perhaps not.  But "black swan" events like this virus tend to pull frothy markets back down towards the mean which would be the $3000 to $4000 range in my estimation.  That would be a good place for those on the sidelines to jump in but $2000 just makes it a much more compelling point for me to get skin back in the game.

I just continue to buy on the way down  ....that has worked pretty decently for me, so far, and I have no reason to believe that it does not continue to be a viable and prudent strategy forward, at least in regards to bitcoin...
Really?  That is very strange to hear for someone whose Bitcoin has crashed in value by over 30% less than a mere month.  "If you try to catch falling knives, you're going to get cut."   Better to wait till the knife is first on the ground lest your hands end up shredded.  
But better your money that is being bled out in favor of the coiners fleeing to cash, and not mine.
Have you ever noticed it is your haters who obsessively read your every post, comment on them with the most emotion, and expend so much energy desperately trying to engage you?  It's because haters are your greatest, most loyal, and dedicated fans; they just have not come to terms with it yet.  Enjoy them because they are the surest sign that you're slaying it in life!  Big Grin
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(03-12-2020, 07:43 AM)SC87 Wrote: JJG when you say “buy” do you mean with new $ or do you tether some BTC when you feel like it’s going down?

Since 2015, I have set sell orders all the way up starting in the $250 arena, so I had sold all the way up to $19,666, and more recently sold all the way up to $10,500 in this most recent price run.  I do not consider this as any kind of major way to make money, but just as a way to kind of hedge and provide some downward insurance (and makes me feel better when the price goes down).  

So, when the BTC price goes back down, I am largely buying with money that had been generated from sales of BTC at higher prices.  

From time to time, I will also inject new money into my budget too, or even remove money from the system or engage in other kinds of shifting around of fund strategy or play with my cashflow that cause me to tweak my buy/sell strategies in terms of buy/sell quantities, increments between orders or spreads between buys and sells.  ... so the strategy is to buy on the way down and sell on the way up... but really the sell amounts are not that great.. they might rise to the level of 1% for every 10% rise or 10% for every 100% rise.. It varies somewhat depending on how I am feeling about quanitities and how much BTC I want to hold relative to other assets that I have.

Currently, my buy orders go to around the lower $4ks, but I anticipate that I would have to readjust them and maybe even rethink my budget  if the BTC price goes below $6k... 

I was hoping that I was not going to need to rethink my budget, but if the price goes below $6k, I probably will since I never really want to run out of dollars in the event that the BTC price were to continue to go down, and I had been tentatively thinking that the $6,425 price from December 2019 was seeming to be quite likely to be the bottom.. though now, the odds are starting to go against that $6,425 as our current bottom for this correction cycle.   Currently, it seems that there is some kind of momentum to be causing a pretty strong sense that $6,425 could be tested again.. ..  maybe in the greater than 60% arena of probability.. Of course, no guarantees with any of this, but it is starting to seem good to be prepared for those kinds of numbers and those kinds of seemingly increasing likely scenarios.

My thoughts are always to be prepared and to have a plan for both price directions, and they might need to be adjusted a bit when prices are moving more quickly in short periods of time.


(03-12-2020, 07:56 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(03-12-2020, 07:34 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote: {Edited out]
Really?  That is very strange to hear for someone whose Bitcoin has crashed in value by over 30% less than a mere month.

Don't be a fucking diptwat trying to read whatever fucking stupid-ass spin that you want to make in order to propagate bullshit.

I share information in this thread on a regular basis, and I have largely seen bullshit from you that is largely not even on topic.

I have a strategy that I have been following for years, which I describe from time to time, and I could give less than two shits about some of the volatility. In fact, I expect some volatility, and my strategy is designed to cause my BTC holdings to be less harmed from the volatility, even though in the long run it does better if the BTC price goes up.

I don't fuck around with trying to predict short term BTC price moves or at least to change my strategy based on that unless I am just making sure that I do not run out of money if the BTC price goes down or I do not run out of BTC if the BTC price goes up.

So, if you try to consider the matter a bit more logically in terms of zooming out a bit, you might consider that BTC prices went up about 63% in about 2 months from mid- December to mid February, from $6,425 to $10,500. Seems that I had already mentioned that, no? Anyhow, our current correction has not quite brought BTC prices back down to the $6,425 starting point, so you can spin bullshit all that you like; however, it would be a bit more genuine of you to try to deal with overall facts rather than trying to act like you are smarter than everybody else, because I doubt too many guys give too many shits about your desired to proclaim yourself as smart and accredited or whatever other self-aggrandizing adjective you want to ascribe to yourself.



(03-12-2020, 07:56 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:   "If you try to catch falling knives, you're going to get cut."   Better to wait till the knife is first on the ground lest your hands end up shredded.  
But better your money that is being bled out in favor of the coiners fleeing to cash, and not mine.

There are all kinds of strategies that can be employed, and my strategy involves buying on the way down and selling on the way up, but largely holding and not really selling very much. on the way up. So whatever amount of money that I used to buy back is already decided in advance (by me) so I just let it play out, and I will tweak from time to time, but usually I have found that it is just better to let it ride rather than trying to tweak it in the middle because I have learned if I try to tweak it in the middle, it usually does not work out very well. On the other hand, sometimes, I can learn from various price moves in order to tweak some of my spread or my buy/sell increments or my amounts... and largely I try to remove any emotion from the situation, even though sometimes it can become a bit emotional.. especially if the price is moving quite a bit.
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(03-12-2020, 08:15 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(03-12-2020, 07:56 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:   "If you try to catch falling knives, you're going to get cut."   Better to wait till the knife is first on the ground lest your hands end up shredded.  
But better your money that is being bled out in favor of the coiners fleeing to cash, and not mine.

There are all kinds of strategies that can be employed, and my strategy involves buying on the way down and selling on the way up, but largely holding and not really selling very much. on the way up. So whatever amount of money that I used to buy back is already decided in advance (by me) so I just let it play out, and I will tweak from time to time, but usually I have found that it is just better to let it ride rather than trying to tweak it in the middle because I have learned if I try to tweak it in the middle, it usually does not work out very well.  On the other hand, sometimes, I can learn from various price moves in order to tweak some of my spread or my buy/sell increments or my amounts... and largely I try to remove any emotion from the situation, even though sometimes it can become a bit emotional.. especially if the price is moving quite a bit.
I'm afraid your Bitcoin "strategy" is a mess, you're emotionally all over the place, and you're on the road to financial ruin if you keep it up.  But again, it's your money.  I just hope you stop cajoling others to join you in the land of Bitcoin-broke with you.

Schadenfreude is not something I engage in, but you are making it quite tempting.
Have you ever noticed it is your haters who obsessively read your every post, comment on them with the most emotion, and expend so much energy desperately trying to engage you?  It's because haters are your greatest, most loyal, and dedicated fans; they just have not come to terms with it yet.  Enjoy them because they are the surest sign that you're slaying it in life!  Big Grin
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(03-12-2020, 09:14 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(03-12-2020, 08:15 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote: [edited out]
I'm afraid your Bitcoin "strategy" is a mess, you're emotionally all over the place, and you're on the road to financial ruin if you keep it up.  But again, it's your money.  I just hope you stop cajoling others to join you in the land of Bitcoin-broke with you.

Schadenfreude is not something I engage in, but you are making it quite tempting.

I don't really understand what you are selling? Are you even interested in bitcoin?

You just make shit up, and try to describe what my preferences to be, so if the bitcoin price drops, then all of a sudden I am losing money? Have you thought about someone who buys in 2013, 2014 and 2015 would have average costs of quite below $1k, so sure maybe they could buy and sell and buy and sell and make more money, but frequently those people do not make money. The more solid practices have been to either dollar cost average, buy on dips or just hold through the UPs and DOWNs that are nearly inevitable in an asset such as BTC.

Accordingly, BTC has outperformed my other investments, and I though that I did pretty good with those... maybe averaging about 5.5% per year for about 30 years..bitcoin is doing much better than that kind of average... and likely to continue to do better for guys who have at least a 4 year time horizon. Of course, they could front load or engage in various lump sum investments, or they can do the widely accepted DCA tactic over many years, and likely do quite well with bitcoin.

Of course, every guy has to exercise his own discretion, and I participate in this thread because I am interested in the topic, and I could give less than two shits if guys actually end up investing in BTC. That is their choice, yet of course, there are ways that guys can attempt to brainstorm strategies and share ideas in order that they are able to better tailor their approach to their circumstances, and this thread provides opportunities for those kinds of information sharing efforts.

Regarding your participation, herein, I doubt that we need to hear about your ongoing desire to wait for $2k-ish prices. That is likely not going to provide much help, here, is it? It will be funny, however, to make fun of you chasing the train, when you end up buying at $30k or some other price... when you could have bought at these prices or otherwise engaged in various kinds of practices to accumulate BTC by buying on dips or DCA or some other variations. hahahahaha
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BTC collapsing right now. Holy shit.
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^^Beat me to it...

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin...everything

I got so much shit to do but I will be putting in some more money tomorrow. Vulture mentality.
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(03-12-2020, 02:25 PM)SpecialEd Wrote: BTC collapsing right now. Holy shit.

You know (hopefully) that we are witnessing not just a bitcoin specific collapse, so not really sure about your point exactly... 

But, yeah, I was in the process of attempting to do some other things, and then BTC prices suddenly dropped from $7,300-ish to the upper $5ks.. and we have been caught in the upper $5ks ever since... So as you can imagine with my system, that precipitous drop caused a lot of my buy orders to trigger, and then since so many buy orders trigger, I found it necessary to draw my attention to setting my new sell orders...   

Can be nice when the bleeding stops, even if it is just temporary, and one thing that differs about bitcoin is that it does not shut down, and trading really cannot be stopped, even though some folks find out that during these highly volatile times, that some of their exchanges will shut down, get locked up or even get hacked or fail during these kinds of volatile situations, which is surely part of the drama of the space... 

I am not sure if more needs to be said regarding short term correlations and the fact that sometimes less liquid goods can be pushed to considerable extremes (whether to the downside or to the upside) based on less liquid aspects, and relatively speaking bitcoin has way more avenues to be manipulated than traditional stocks - especially if we are looking at the overall stock market (even though we know that some individual stocks can sometimes be manipulated the fuck out of, too).  

So, shitcoins are even more potentially vulnerable in terms of their liquidation avenues, and surely there has been a quite a bit of froth in the shitcoin space, and even difficult to know  the degree to which they might correct or be able to survive or to bounce back and to be pumped while other assets are dumped... which also sometimes happens in the shitcoin space.   

(03-12-2020, 02:26 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: ^^Beat me to it...

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin...everything

I got so much shit to do but I will be putting in some more money tomorrow. Vulture mentality.

Yep.. ChicagoFire.  That linked article does outline the current bleak scenario that we seem to be in. and surely takes some resolution for guys who are buying BTC (or have some confidence in the future price potential of BTC) to attempt to stick to a decent plan to be buying BTC with a kind of budgeting during moments of panic and even to attempt to ration the budget in order to hopefully NOT run out of dollars in terms of being able to buy some BTC at or near the bottom... 

And, frequently, on a personal level, I don't really care if I might still have some cash left at or near the bottom, because the cash can serve as a kind of "just in case it goes lower" insurance that a guy hopes that he never has to use.

I mentioned in an earlier post that I thought that if BTC prices dipped below $6k, then I was going to need to reconsider some of my currently outstanding BTC buy orders and maybe change their increments or change their amounts in order to possibly spread out those buy orders a bit more.

Since BTC prices went from the lower $7ks to the upper $5ks so god damned quickly, I did make myself perform, at least, a quick overview of what BTC buy orders that I continue to have outstanding and what cash that I currently have available (or that is projected to come in) and for how far down that cash already dedicated cash is projected to last.

 After such cursory review, I am thinking that I can put off some of my tweaking.. and maybe just wait a bit longer. and just let whatever I have continue to ride it out, and perhaps reconsider again whether I need to rebalance or tweak when we get into lower $5ks, if we get there... in other words, it has been nearly 2 years since we have been in these kinds of price territories, and I cannot really recall injecting any kind of meaningful additional cash in the past couple of years.  Remember from April 1, 2019 until the  end of June 2019, we went from $4,200 to $13,880.. and so we had largely been bouncing decently above $7k for most of that subsequent time.. so there has not really seemed to have been any need for someone in my kind of situation to be injecting more money into BTC... even though I understand that if guys are getting into bitcoin later, they may have been injecting value throughout this whole time, so their cost per BTC would be considerably higher and probably, if they have been buying in the past couple of years, they have been buying most of their BTC at prices that are decently higher than our current price..... so yeah, guys who are in the situation of having average costs that are higher than current price are likely to be considering their particular matter from that perspective, and of course, every guy should be attempting to tailor the best that he can to his own individual circumstances in spite of some of the various doom and gloom circumstances that are out there in terms of both market movements and information about such.
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Do I need a point?

It was an observation with a dash of exclamation.

I didn't mention any shit or alt coins so I'm not sure why you brought that up. This is the BTC thread yea?
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(03-12-2020, 06:16 PM)SpecialEd Wrote: Do I need a point?


Sure, it would be nice if that were to happen, some day.. hahahahaha Tongue Tongue

(03-12-2020, 06:16 PM)SpecialEd Wrote: It was an observation with a dash of exclamation.

No problem. Point, or lack thereof, was sufficient for me to attempt to spout out some nonsense.

(03-12-2020, 06:16 PM)SpecialEd Wrote: I didn't mention any shit or alt coins so I'm not sure why you brought that up. This is the BTC thread yea?

Get out of here. Sure this is the BTC thread, and it does not matter whether you mentioned shitcoins or not. There is an ongoing dynamic that is good to point out, even when we are trying to stay focused on king daddy.

You believe that king daddy lives in a complete vacuum? We have a current market dynamic in bitcoin that involves a variety of factors, which is NOT completely unusual, but we should not be completely ignoring various factors that can affect both short term or long term BTC price movements or perceptions of the BTC space.

Now, I will concede that sometimes one or more factors might be emphases too much or more than it needs to be, but in that regard, we should be expecting that guys are going to have differing perspectives, expectations and even readings of what factors they consider to be most relevant and pressing upon BTC price dynamics...

And, by the way, what have you been up to lately, SpecialEd? Are you accumulating BTC, selling, shorting or waiting it out or what? Do you consider various macro factors need to be considered beyond some of the other currently dominant BTC price prediction models, such as considering stock market, real property, assets such as gold, fiat or even shitcoins? Have you been tweaking any of the assets in your portfolio in recent times based on any of these recent price moves in the market and even considering whether corona virus or even cut backs on gatherings and even market activities might need to be considered in order to tweak your various allocations, to the extent that you have any? Tongue
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Easy there. Can hear your blood pressure rising.
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