The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics)
(12-12-2020, 09:27 PM)Viejo Sabio Wrote: I'm not against Crypto in principle.

I am not sure what that means, and the use of the term crypto is quite problematic when we are talking about bitcoin here. I presume that you are talking about bitcoin.

There are all kinds of things going on in the space that is related to bitcoin, so sometimes we may well need to attempt to differentiate whatever governmental regulations are aimed that those activities or compared with bitcoin, which could also result in figuring out how regulations or any other kinds of control or reigning in attempts might work in regards to one kind of crypto or activity related to crypto or another... whether we are talking about ICOs, DeFi, various shitcoins, stable coins bitcoin, some bitcoin related activity or even on and/off ramps that might be controllable, potentially.

(12-12-2020, 09:27 PM)Viejo Sabio Wrote: I get that many want to be freed of the fiat nightmare,

We do not need to talk about want, here. We can just talk about options, so yeah, there are potentials for sound money and scarcity when it comes to comparing to fiat that causes incentives for people to want to gravitate their value into bitcoin - something that has better chances of retaining its value, as compared to fiat that has gone made in a variety of ways with the printing that causes a lot of exploitation of people by the mere devaluation of value and even disproportionate impacts whether referring to Cantillon effects or merely government officials deciding who gets the perks and who doesn't. Options may or may not end up being an escape - even though there are possibilities that more soundness in money will have a tendency to make systems more accountable to the extent that bitcoin might be able to remain more sound and not end up being diluted by fractional reserve practices and other varying kinds of methodologies that are used on fiat and other assets such as PMs and attempting to apply similar tactics to bitcoin that may or may not end up being successful because there are abilities in bitcoin to demand direct possession and that remains one of the powers of bitcoin to the extent that it can remain preserved in spite ongoing adoptions and attempts to dilute it and co-opt it as you, Viejo Sabio, already presume to be a near done deal (or lost battle of no import).. without even waiting to see how some of these matters might play out or even if the battle might be lost but whether any meaningful impact could still be made including individual abilities to profit from such options that bitcoin currently provides and/or might continue to provide in a future world..


(12-12-2020, 09:27 PM)Viejo Sabio Wrote: just think it is very naive to think that this can't be coopted and neutralized.

I doubt anyone here said "can't" in regards to possible government battles except maybe you are implying the opposite, which is assuming that such a possible battle is lost before it has even begun and even assuming away the nearly 12 years of bitcoin's existence or even that there might not be any value to whatever contributions that bitcoin is already providing in terms of challenges that are presented by bitcoin and the actual extent of its decentralization, even and you even seem to be suggesting that there may well NOT be any value that is already being provided by bitcoin - as if such thing as what bitcoin is already providing and already doing (which is multi-faceted by the way) should not even be tried.

In various senses it can be argued that bitcoin has already been successful and has already caused paradigm shifting changes in the way that various aspects of the world works, and is having current effects and even if it could possibly end up going to zero in the future may well have positive impacts on various other systems along the way in such process, too.


(12-12-2020, 09:27 PM)Viejo Sabio Wrote: I fully realize that in the interim some of you will make out well.

People already have.

Businesses are being built around bitcoin. Some are profitable, and some are not. Much of the building around bitcoin can also be considered as varying kinds of network effects and there are a variety of kinds of networking effects that had been outlined by trace mayer, and those network effects continue to grow. Hopefully, you are familiar with some of those kinds of concepts before presuming that they can all just be snuffed out willy nilly.

(12-12-2020, 09:27 PM)Viejo Sabio Wrote: I'd rather invest in something more tangible,

tangible like gold? or property? or a business?

There are tangible aspects to bitcoin, even if you seem to want to either downplay them or just cursorily treat them. I would think that bitcoin's computing power is pretty damned tangible, but hey you cannot touch computing power, can you?

(12-12-2020, 09:27 PM)Viejo Sabio Wrote: the horror stories of lost bitcoins is quite real.

Oh gawd.. not that angle again. Rolleyes

(12-12-2020, 09:27 PM)Viejo Sabio Wrote: Yes it can work technically but for me I find it too easy to hack, to lose and often way too ponderous to use.

Sure, there are some user-friendliness issues, and so there are a variety of ways to hold coins or get exposure to bitcoin that continue to change with the passage of time, and there might need to be some learning in order to be able to have some protections.

(12-12-2020, 09:27 PM)Viejo Sabio Wrote: Now I'm done.

That's probably good since the more you say, the more you seemed to have been deteriorating. So maybe for you, you do not want to have any exposure, and surely that is your choice.

(12-12-2020, 09:27 PM)Viejo Sabio Wrote: For those of you who disagree forge ahead and I hope you make a bundle.

People are in bitcoin for a variety of reasons, and some of the reasons might be to make money and some reasons might be to hedge against other systems.

Lot's of good investment theses around the hedging idea, and surely I consider a good starting point to be 1% to 10% of your quasi-liquid capital, but of course, if you are more hesitant you might go to the lowside or even outside of the range or even choose not to invest. Seems a bit too rash, but guys can choose whatever they like, even if it ends up being a BIG ASS missed opportunity. Of course, more risk loving guys might go more towards the top of the range or even deviate by going beyond what is recommended (which may well be not advisable either). In the end, guys should be deciding for themselves regarding how much exposure they feel works for them and also they can study along the way including taking very modest dollar cost averaging approach of only a few dollars a week (if they so choose).. its up to the guy to figure out his situation and try to come up with some kind of prudent and meaningful arrangement that he believes will work for him.
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About to sell my third bitcoin in 3 weeks....I'll admit there's downward pressure on the price in the $19ks because so many ppl want to sell from the buildup in 2017/2018, but I don't see any legit reason for the 50% value increase since October. My prediction: it'll decrease at the year end.

It wouldn't be surprising to me if there's some fuckery going on and the price has risen for tax reasons alone. As far as I know, some coordination between a few big players can cause a price increase. I'm out for now.

Plus, I have better things to do with the money anyways (ie buy a penthouse in Medellin)
OLG 9, DG 8, NG 5
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Bitcoin topped out around 19k this month and rhodium topped out at 16k. Both made incredible gains this year. At one point when silver was crashing maybe march , rhodium was at 2.5k per oz. That's a remarkable 9 month run . all the more incredible is that it wasn't mentioned at all in the media. Rhodium did it in the past and it will crash and do it again in the future.
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(12-16-2020, 01:41 AM)Daryush Neubache Wrote: Bitcoin topped out around 19k this month and rhodium topped out at 16k. Both made incredible gains this year. At one point when silver was crashing maybe march , rhodium was at 2.5k per oz. That's a remarkable 9 month run . all the more incredible is that it wasn't mentioned at all in the media. Rhodium did it in the past and it will crash and do it again in the future.

I love that aspect of Rhodium and I have held it in the past.  It can be a bit of a challenge to find, but I buy and sell mine at the same dealer in Laurel, MD.
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(12-15-2020, 12:59 PM)DVR Wrote: About to sell my third bitcoin in 3 weeks....I'll admit there's downward pressure on the price in the $19ks because so many ppl want to sell from the buildup in 2017/2018, but I don't see any legit reason for the 50% value increase since October. My prediction: it'll decrease at the year end.

It wouldn't be surprising to me if there's some fuckery going on and the price has risen for tax reasons alone. As far as I know, some coordination between a few big players can cause a price increase. I'm out for now.

Plus, I have better things to do with the money anyways (ie buy a penthouse in Medellin)

I hope you held off lol.
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Bitcoin finally breaks and rockets past $20K for all time high. Real party starts now.
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100k incoming.
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100k is FUD, 1mil incoming
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(12-15-2020, 12:59 PM)DVR Wrote: About to sell my third bitcoin in 3 weeks....I'll admit there's downward pressure on the price in the $19ks because so many ppl want to sell from the buildup in 2017/2018, but I don't see any legit reason for the 50% value increase since October. My prediction: it'll decrease at the year end.

It wouldn't be surprising to me if there's some fuckery going on and the price has risen for tax reasons alone. As far as I know, some coordination between a few big players can cause a price increase. I'm out for now.

Plus, I have better things to do with the money anyways (ie buy a penthouse in Medellin)

How is that sell plan working out for you?

Yes.. ... I know that there are better things to do than to make money by HODLing... and it can be a lot of fun staying poor.. 

and if you think about the whole matter, it's only been about a 15% increase in the BTC price in the last couple of days from about $19,500 to $22,318 a few minutes ago.. its not really that big of a deal (so far)... I suppose, just trying to think outside the box, here.

(12-16-2020, 01:41 AM)Daryush Neubache Wrote: Bitcoin topped out around 19k this month and rhodium topped out at 16k. Both made incredible gains this year. At one point when silver was crashing maybe march , rhodium was at 2.5k per oz. That's a remarkable 9 month run . all the more incredible is that it wasn't mentioned at all in the media. Rhodium did it in the past and it will crash and do it again in the future.

I don't see why any of us should be giving any shits about Rhodium or any other PM in this here bitcoin thread.
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JJG

Quote:I don't see why any of us should be giving any shits about Rhodium or any other PM in this here bitcoin thread.

Its just a nice little comparison. Bitcoin is on a remarkable run ,although fact is that actually rhodium has eclipsed Bitcoin with a 600% returns in 9 months this year but . Everyone can use some perspective. Rhodium really flies under the radar and You cannot look at Bitcoin only in a vacuum. Its a good practice to look around and smell other flowers once in a while.
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(12-19-2020, 12:35 AM)Daryush Neubache Wrote: JJG

Quote:I don't see why any of us should be giving any shits about Rhodium or any other PM in this here bitcoin thread.

Its just a nice little comparison. Bitcoin is on a remarkable run ,although fact is that actually rhodium has eclipsed Bitcoin with a 600% returns in 9 months this year but . Everyone can use some perspective. Rhodium really flies under the radar and You cannot look at Bitcoin only in a vacuum. Its a good practice to look around and smell other flowers once in a while.

I stand by my earlier post.  I do not disagree with the concept that sometimes comparisons to other assets can be helpful even in a bitcoin thread.... but still, seems a bit off topic unless some kind of bitcoin related point is attempting to be made..... which concededly you did seem to do, Daryush Neubache.

Here's an interesting Tales from the crypt podcast (a bit more than an hour long) from yesterday in which Marty interviews BitcoinTINA... BitcoinTINA makes similar points to what I was attempting to make in my earlier post... and perhaps BitcoinTINA makes such points a bit more eloquently than me.  Perhaps?
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(12-17-2020, 06:10 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(12-15-2020, 12:59 PM)DVR Wrote: About to sell my third bitcoin in 3 weeks....I'll admit there's downward pressure on the price in the $19ks because so many ppl want to sell from the buildup in 2017/2018, but I don't see any legit reason for the 50% value increase since October. My prediction: it'll decrease at the year end.

It wouldn't be surprising to me if there's some fuckery going on and the price has risen for tax reasons alone. As far as I know, some coordination between a few big players can cause a price increase. I'm out for now.

Plus, I have better things to do with the money anyways (ie buy a penthouse in Medellin)

How is that sell plan working out for you?

Yes.. ... I know that there are better things to do than to make money by HODLing... and it can be a lot of fun staying poor.. 

and if you think about the whole matter, it's only been about a 15% increase in the BTC price in the last couple of days from about $19,500 to $22,318 a few minutes ago.. its not really that big of a deal (so far)... I suppose, just trying to think outside the box, here.

(12-16-2020, 01:41 AM)Daryush Neubache Wrote: Bitcoin topped out around 19k this month and rhodium topped out at 16k. Both made incredible gains this year. At one point when silver was crashing maybe march , rhodium was at 2.5k per oz. That's a remarkable 9 month run . all the more incredible is that it wasn't mentioned at all in the media. Rhodium did it in the past and it will crash and do it again in the future.

I don't see why any of us should be giving any shits about Rhodium or any other PM in this here bitcoin thread.

I sold all my bitcoin a few days ago and very satisfied, came at a great time at year-end. I believe in LT potential, but it went up too high, too quick. Sell when others are buying, that's what I did. I could be wrong sure. It woudln't be the first ime. How do I know it's gone up too high? You're a good example. You said it hasn't went up that much, only 15% in the past few days lol....15% is a mindblowing, astronomical rise in a few days and, remember, that's after a 2x rise in 2 months already. My prediction is that it will decrease in the short-term, at which point I'll buy back in. I don't usually try to time the market, but it just made sense to me here.
OLG 9, DG 8, NG 5
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(12-25-2020, 10:34 PM)DVR Wrote:
(12-17-2020, 06:10 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(12-15-2020, 12:59 PM)DVR Wrote: About to sell my third bitcoin in 3 weeks....I'll admit there's downward pressure on the price in the $19ks because so many ppl want to sell from the buildup in 2017/2018, but I don't see any legit reason for the 50% value increase since October. My prediction: it'll decrease at the year end.

It wouldn't be surprising to me if there's some fuckery going on and the price has risen for tax reasons alone. As far as I know, some coordination between a few big players can cause a price increase. I'm out for now.

Plus, I have better things to do with the money anyways (ie buy a penthouse in Medellin)

How is that sell plan working out for you?

Yes.. ... I know that there are better things to do than to make money by HODLing... and it can be a lot of fun staying poor.. 

and if you think about the whole matter, it's only been about a 15% increase in the BTC price in the last couple of days from about $19,500 to $22,318 a few minutes ago.. its not really that big of a deal (so far)... I suppose, just trying to think outside the box, here.

(12-16-2020, 01:41 AM)Daryush Neubache Wrote: Bitcoin topped out around 19k this month and rhodium topped out at 16k. Both made incredible gains this year. At one point when silver was crashing maybe march , rhodium was at 2.5k per oz. That's a remarkable 9 month run . all the more incredible is that it wasn't mentioned at all in the media. Rhodium did it in the past and it will crash and do it again in the future.

I don't see why any of us should be giving any shits about Rhodium or any other PM in this here bitcoin thread.

I sold all my bitcoin a few days ago and very satisfied, came at a great time at year-end. I believe in LT potential, but it went up too high, too quick. Sell when others are buying, that's what I did. I could be wrong sure. It woudln't be the first ime. How do I know it's gone up too high? You're a good example. You said it hasn't went up that much, only 15% in the past few days lol....15% is a mindblowing, astronomical rise in a few days and, remember, that's after a 2x rise in 2 months already. My prediction is that it will decrease in the short-term, at which point I'll buy back in. I don't usually try to time the market, but it just made sense to me here.

Ok. fair enough that you don't usually try to time the market, but this time you did.  You seem to have some kind of idea that we have an unsustainable top happening in bitcoin or something like this, and surely we had a lot of other losers making those kinds of proclamations in late 2016 and early 2017 when BTC had surpassed its previous ATH of $1,163, and they were selling all of their BTC during that time because they speculated that BTC had reached a top... 

Did not work out too well for many of those folks selling too many BTC too soon.  

Maybe these concepts of supposed tops and overheated will be working out for you, yet it seems that your ideas about bitcoin remain quite superficial if you are trying to categorize or consider it as some kind of mature asset or for bitcoin to have price movements (such as tops) that are similar to other asset classes.. when it continues to be quite early in its adoption phases.

As I have said many times, the most prevalent and convincing of BTC price prediction models are: 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and network effects.   If you believe that the names of those models are just wishful thinking then you likely do not understand the concepts that back them up that should justify little to no selling in this price arena.. even if you believe that you know better than everyone else. 

So sure, if you are not accounting for those current BTC price prediction models (or you do not understand them because you consider them to be merely words on a page) then you might be misunderstanding what bitcoin is and what Bitcoin's potential is including considering some of the BIG players just getting into bitcoin at those prices and considering it cheap relative to where it is likely to be going.

Of course, bitcoin can do anything including having relatively large price corrections during a bull run, including price corrections that are 30% to 50%.. but even though those levels of BTC price corrections can happen or might happen do not mean that they are a condition precedent for BTC prices to continue to go UPpity.. even though we are 2.5x increases in prices since early September (from $10k to $25k) and merely 2.25x increases since early October (from $11k to $25k).
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I believe in the LT potential of BTC. It's why I pulled nearly 100% of my money from stocks in 2017 and put it into crypto. I sold at over 2x on my money. Now time to use it to buy a house in Colombia where it's a buyers market.

I still believe in the LT potential, but a gain of 600% in one year is a bubble, unless you think it was undervalued. Maybe? Honestly, I don't know. I don't know shit about BTC. But I'd like to think I know a bit about human psychology.

It's the same reason I made 5x on my money in Chiptole stock (they made a few dozen out of millions of customers sick causing the stock to plummet 80%).

When my friend, who doesn't know anything about investing, sends me a text saying "how do I buy bitcoins?' that's the definition of a bubble.

Your reference to 2016/early 2017 is not valid. That was after 5 years of consistent steady growth, then it only 2x in value. In late 2017 BTC 8x in value and this year, starting at a higher base, we've 6x the price.

I could be wrong. But how the world works to me, the price will drop and I have other immediate uses for the money. For these reasons I sold. Also, my business did worse this year so why not capitalize on the gains on Crypto? I wonder if these big firms have similar thinking which is driving the increase. They, too, need to make up for a bad year. I wonder if the markets are being manipulted. Correct, not if, but how much exactly. No differnent than NASDAQ or anything else.
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The last time the ATH was hit it took 11.5 months to peak, still lots of gains left in the tank.

Also 2020 was obviously a unique situation, if it wasn't for the virus the stock market and BTC wouldn't have tanked in March.
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(01-01-2021, 04:56 PM)SC87 Wrote: The last time the ATH was hit it took 11.5 months to peak, still lots of gains left in the tank.

Also 2020 was obviously a unique situation, if it wasn't for the virus the stock market and BTC wouldn't have tanked in March.

All correct. DVR's assessment of the situation is off.

Bitcoin did not gain '600%' over 2020. It was about ~300%. 

Additionally, on 'gains left in the tank', we'll see if this rally can continue into 2021, but we're not yet in the manic bubble territory of 2017 judging by Google Trends. 

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Without the virus and the election maybe the no coiners would have been hearing more about Bitcoin in the news. I've talked to many people that have heard of Bitcoin due to the previous bull run but have assumed that it is "dead" because they personally haven't heard much about it.
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i see BTC continuing to rise until governments feel threatened and pull the plug on it.
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(01-02-2021, 08:53 AM)Dash Wrote: i see BTC continuing to rise until governments feel threatened and pull the plug on it.
Some governments will try, but it is too decentralized for any plug to be pulled.  What I see coming is governments making it extremely burdensome to merely OWN bitcoin.

How would they do that?  Think of how they make offshore bank accounts burdensome to own.  You have to make annual reports and if you don't or don't do it correctly, they can seize your assets, fine you, and charge you with fraud. 

So, under the guise of protecting against "terrorist financing and money laundering" activity, I am seeing moves made so you will have to report all cryptocurrencies on an annual basis under penalty of seizure and/or prosecution.   The blueprint for it is the FATCA law, and they are already requiring crypto exchanges that do business in the USA to collect information on all customers using the Know Your Customer regulations.  Those exchanges are then required to report transactions to FINCEN network of the US Treasury on an annual basis.  So not only will they be able to see who did no pay capital gains taxes, but they will see who did not file ownership reports as will be required.  Both are means for seizure of the crypto and not paying taxes is a justification for prosecution.  When that infrastructure is all rolled out, many people will simply sell off their crypto to avoid all the risky, bureaucratic reporting hassles involved.

About the only people who would be spared are those who renounce their Western citizenships for crypto-friendly countries who don't care about regulating crypto.  FATCA spawned a rash of American citizenship renunciations, and I suspect people would do the same when Western governments clamp down on crypto ownership.

https://www.goldinglawyers.com/cryptocur...0or%20fund.
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First gold. Then real estate.
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