The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics)
Here's an update from PlanB, if any guy is interested in the current plottings of the stock to flow model.


[Image: EfiG0O1WsAMhJ_-?format=png&name=small]


https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/statu...46721?s=21

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3rd red dot (currently $11850) above 2nd red dot (#bitcoin[Image: Bitcoin_2020.png]


[url=https://twitter.com/hashtag/bitcoin?src=hashtag_click][/url] July close $11356) and above 1st red dot (June close $9132) .. next target: Dec 2017 ATH close $14K  [Image: 1f680.svg]
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The last comment from Wind_FURY in the below attached linked thread from the bitcointalk forum kind of reminds me of a way to kind of summarize my response to bootknocker -two posts above, and what bootknocker seems to be missing or misunderstanding (on purpose?) in regards to the power of what bitcoin is and the direction that bitcoin continues to focus and develop in regards to an ongoing bitcoin: "focus on security, self-sovereignty, and censorship-resistance."

 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=...sg55012645

Quote:That's thanks to the Core developers' contribution to it's growth and development, and being conservative, and safe in their approach to focus on security, self-sovereignty, and censorship-resistance.

Plus shitcoiners underestimate Bitcoin's network effects.
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Below are links to an interesting bitcoin-related product/project/book that is available for free online (or you can optionally purchase such book, too).

https://21lessons.com/preface

Here's an author summary from such website:

Quote:
>>>>>>
Falling down the Bitcoin rabbit hole is a strange experience. Like many others, I feel like I have learned more in the last couple of years studying Bitcoin than I have during two decades of formal education.

The following lessons are a distillation of what I’ve learned. First published as an article series titled “What I’ve Learned From Bitcoin,” what follows can be seen as a second edition of the original series.

Like Bitcoin, these lessons aren’t a static thing. I plan to work on them periodically, releasing updated versions and additional material in the future.

Unlike Bitcoin, future versions of this project do not have to be backward compatible. Some lessons might be extended, others might be reworked or replaced. I hope that a future version will be something you can hold in your hands, but I don’t want to promise anything just yet.

Bitcoin is an inexhaustible teacher, which is why I do not claim that these lessons are all-encompassing or complete. They are a reflection of my personal journey down the rabbit hole. There are many more lessons to be learned, and every person will learn something different from entering the world of Bitcoin.

I hope that you will find these lessons useful and that the process of learning them by reading won’t be as arduous and painful as learning them firsthand.

Gigi<<<<<<<

Also, various parts of the book seems to be available in at least 9 languages, as I type this post (seems to be some ongoing efforts to add translations to the free project).  Look at the top of the homepage for a language link.

https://21lessons.com/

https://21lessons.com/translations
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Another interesting phenomena in bitcoin that seems to undermine the claim that bitcoin is not distributed enough is that the number of BTC addresses with 1 BTC or more are going up in their numbers.

https://twitter.com/coincornerdanny/stat...8138103808


[Image: EffWM8WXYAIbY1U?format=jpg&name=small]

Of course (and concededly), bitcoin addresses do not represent number of BTC users, so there does remain a bit of ambiguity regarding what bitcoin addresses represent, exactlly.
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Hint... 

bitcoin is at $12,344 as I type.. and could be "in" or going into a kind of "fuck you" state of affairs.

We have been in places like this before, and surely we cannot know for sure about where we are exactly, until after we have already gone through it... but still.. might not be comfortable for the fence-sitters, naysayers, shitcoin pumpeners (including peeps stuck in crappy products that they are hoping for a pumpening that might not happen) and the BTC deniers currently, I am sure.

Concededly, it is possible that we might get a correction.. maybe?  maybe?  maybe?... but then again, we might not.  Go figure?
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Bro you wrote a fucking book to argue with me that has a lot of assumptions and prejudice. I can tell you're obsessed with BTC so there is literally no arguing with you about the subject.

I'm glad you have something you're interested in and passionate about but referring to ETH (or all other cryptocurrency) as shitcoins is a very myopic view. Throughout history there have been a lot of firsts that have been replaced by competitors. There's a lot of speculation and it's very possible that ETH turns BTC into Myspace. Regardless BTC could hit $1 and people with your mentality would still make excuses. I hope it does go to $100k but even at $12k it's so pumped.
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(08-17-2020, 11:28 PM)bootknocker Wrote: Bro you wrote a fucking book to argue with me that has a lot of assumptions and prejudice. I can tell you're obsessed with BTC so there is literally no arguing with you about the subject.

I'm glad you have something you're interested in and passionate about but referring to ETH (or all other cryptocurrency) as shitcoins is a very myopic view. Throughout history there have been a lot of firsts that have been replaced by competitors. There's a lot of speculation and it's very possible that ETH turns BTC into Myspace. Regardless BTC could hit $1 and people with your mentality would still make excuses. I hope it does go to $100k but even at $12k it's so pumped.

If anyone is myopic in regards to their understanding of bitcoin, it is you because you are largely unwilling or unable to address my various responses because they are too long..  Cry Cry .
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Here is a nice / informative bitcoin chart with 4-year candles.

We are three months into the 4th candle of this chart, which means that there is another 3 years and 9 months before our current 4-year candle closes.

[Image: EfqFA9kXoAMqY47?format=png&name=small]

https://twitter.com/CryptoBull/status/12...0318537739
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(08-17-2020, 11:28 PM)bootknocker Wrote: Bro you wrote a fucking book to argue with me that has a lot of assumptions and prejudice. I can tell you're obsessed with BTC so there is literally no arguing with you about the subject.

I'm glad you have something you're interested in and passionate about but referring to ETH (or all other cryptocurrency) as shitcoins is a very myopic view. Throughout history there have been a lot of firsts that have been replaced by competitors. There's a lot of speculation and it's very possible that ETH turns BTC into Myspace. Regardless BTC could hit $1 and people with your mentality would still make excuses. I hope it does go to $100k but even at $12k it's so pumped.

You may have a point about Shitcoins and ETH, only time can tell, but to say that Bitcoin is so pumped at 12k is really wrong. Bitcoin is a real alternative to the FIAT system we have right now and with all the money printing that is going on, Bitcoin saw a huge rise, with Gold, Silver first and foremost. Why? Bitcoin serves as store of value. Ok Stocks go up too, but they are different from Bitcoin, Gold and Silver and now with ATH, people tend to spend more on Bitcoin, because it performed well and they could make some gains.

The halving of BTC is another point which I would like to bring up. Controlled inflation and scarcity are very much unheard of in our FIAT system, moreover having no central banks is definitely a novelty and has its own perks. Nobody can decide to change the Bitcoin network or to suddenly increase or decrease interest rates. We are currently seeing NEGATIVE interest rates and real estate just climbs and climbs and climbs...do you think it will continue like this? Nope, people will at one point change something about it...peacefully or in the worst case scenario...with brute force.

There is a reason why Bitcoin is so successful.
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Corrections of 20-30% are the norm for bull markets. If presented with the opportunity....I will be buying.

@bootknocker

Alts will see large gains. The key difference between Bitcoin and shitcoins is founders/teams with conflicts of interest. You can check etherscan to see how much supply these founders and teams hold of a certain token.

When price pumps there is an incentive for these teams to dump to increase their wealth.....see Charlie Lee in 2017. See Ampleforth more recently.

With Bitcoin you can argue there are whales.....but as the network grows ownership grows more and more decentralized. Bitcoin is trustless.....alts are not. In the long long term....this is a key differentiator for storing wealth.
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Ok I'm write one last thing and be done bc some of you guys seem to think BTC is invincible compared to the other "shitcoins" well if you know BTC then it's obv that it's not. If you don't know or believe in one of the many things I'm referring to then you haven't research enough or completely delusional or both.
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(08-18-2020, 08:50 PM)bootknocker Wrote: Ok I'm write one last thing and be done bc some of you guys seem to think BTC is invincible compared to the other "shitcoins" well if you know BTC then it's obv that it's not. If you don't know or believe in one of the many things I'm referring to then you haven't research enough or completely delusional or both.

No one here is saying BTC is invincible, so if you want to flesh out some kind of vague attack vector that might exist, then you should do that... otherwise your attempts at FUD spreading is not going to go anywhere in this thread with your amorphous reference.

If you don't have more specifics about such supposed calamities that are coming to bitcoin (one of the hundreds of cases of bitcoin's imminent deaths as several of us HODLers have been laughing our way to the bank), then your vague nonsense is not really worth discussing or thinking about, is it?  especially if it is the last thing that you are going to say, here (could be we be so lucky?)

Another thing that disingenuous trolls tend to do is to try to act like they are in possession of some kind of supposedly superior information... but they never end up producing such supposedly superior information because they are mostly full of shit... and they might continue to proclaim doom and gloom that never materializes.   Been there done that many times in bitcoin... not even a new pattern.
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Well just want to see if anyone took the advice i gave back in match on the rhodium market . rhodium was 2500 in march , hit 10k today and so under the radar too......
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(08-18-2020, 09:45 PM)Daryush Neubache Wrote: Well just want to see if anyone took the advice i gave back in match on the rhodium market . rhodium was 2500 in march , hit 10k today and so under the radar too......

That doesn't have anything to do with bitcoin, unless you are just trying to suggest that various asset classes are moving in their prices, but what is the bitcoin connection exactly, if any?
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What percentage of liquid net worth are you guys putting into BTC? I'm around 50%. Don't know where else to put it honestly. Stock market seems like its one step away from tanking. Government bonds are just scary given the money printing.

I can't imagine a situation where the USD doesn't depreciate. Seems logical that a lot of money will run to crypto considering.
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(08-18-2020, 11:09 PM)floridaman Wrote: What percentage of liquid net worth are you guys putting into BTC? I'm around 50%. Don't know where else to put it honestly. Stock market seems like its one step away from tanking. Government bonds are just scary given the money printing.

I can't imagine a situation where the USD doesn't depreciate. Seems logical that a lot of money will run to crypto considering.

You are asking a very tough, and certainly personal discretionary matter.  Remember this thread is about bitcoin, and so I don't necessarily want to get into what guys might consider doing regarding other cryptos - largely I do not recommend other cryptos, but I understand that guys might be able to tailor some kind of investment plan that also involves other crypto.. yet one of the problems with that does involve the fact that the whole sector is largely connected with the performance of bitcoin so diversifying into other cryptos will add risk but not really the kind of diversification that is thought of as being traditionally prudent.

So, let me start out this response by focusing on bitcoin specifically, and if guys have at least a 4 year time horizon, I recommend starting to consider their allocation in bitcoin to be 1% to 10% of their quasi-liquid investment capital.

Of course, guys can reasonably tailor their investment allocation beyond that suggested beginner range which surely would be accounting for all of the guys various other personal factors including his cashflow, his other investments, his view of bitcoin as compared with other possible investments, his risk tolerance, his timeline and his time, skills and abilities to learn along the way, tweak his portfolio, trade or to engage in other kinds of mitigating practices.

It can take a decently long time to really balance a guys investment approach including the fact that either the guys situation might change or some aspects of the assets might change and cause decent amounts of changes in the guys views about bitcoin as compared with the other possible investments.

Surely, you have mentioned some valid concerns that might either cause guys to invest more heavily in bitcoin or to let his investment in bitcoin ride when profitable.

For sure considering an initial investment amount is likely to include differing considerations than a guy who has been through one or more exponential periods in bitcoin that causes him to have BTC holdings that are already considerably in profits.. so initially investing at something like 50% might be consider way too over-allocated, but if the guy has his other bases largely covered, and his BTC has become a way larger percentage of his holdings, largely because of BTC price appreciation (relative to other assets in his investment portfolio), then there could be  
a decent amount of justification for the guy to just let his profits ride rather than engaging in reallocation that might end up causing him to have way less ongoing wealth building.

By the way, if you are really young, sometimes you don't have a whole hell of a lot of capital to invest, and so you become more likely to NOT be very diversified, and you end up starting out by investing in only one asset, and then as you build wealth you start to diversify out to other kinds of assets that will cause you to feel a bit more secure, so there can be circumstances in which higher allocations in just one or a small number of assets would be justified.

I will quickly tell my own bitcoin story, again, just to give you some better ideas how allocation thinking might play out.

Initially, when I got into bitcoin in late 2013, I spent about 1 year shooting towards getting to about a 10% BTC allocation.  For the most part, the remainder of my investments (90% -ish) were pretty solid, so I felt that even if my 10% invested into BTC going to zero, I would still be on pretty solid grounds in terms of the value of the remainder of my investments.  Also, largely my other investments had been gaining value on average about 5.5% per year (of course some years better than others, but overall 5.5% was the overall average for more than 25 years that I had then been investing).

Once I reached my goal of allocating 10% into BTC by the end of 2014, I thought that I was going into more of a kind of maintenance mode that would largely be continuing to just invest into BTC on a dollar cost averaging basis, but what happened is that BTC prices were largely in the dump for all of 2015, so even my dollar cost averaging investing into BTC was causing my allocation into bitcoin to gravitate above 10% and probably approaching 13% or so. 

You can imagine that throughout 2015 BTC prices largely floated between about $220 and $280 - so I had already planned kinds of small shavings off of BTC as the BTC price went up (and if BTC prices were to go up), but largely, my whole plan was largely attempting to maintain a large portion of my value in BTC and to let my BTC investment ride with small portions of my BTC investment being shaved off along the way, if the BTC price were to go up.. which of course, we saw that in the two years between late 2015 and late 2017, BTC prices largely appreciated 78x during that period... which caused the value of my proportion in BTC to go up to somewhere close to the 90% arena, but then the apportionment moved back down to the 60% arena after the BTC price corrected nearly 85% from it's late 2017 top down to $3,124..  and probably now my BTC allocation is around 70% arena with BTC prices in the $11,700-ish price range.. .. but I kind of feel that I have a bit of an excuse for having such large BTC allocation based upon NOT really injecting more than 13%-ish value into BTC in the first place, my other investments continue to be considerably significantly valuable enough to sustain me, and my BTC proportion is largely based ongoing BTC price appreciation in comparison to my various other investments that did not really lose value in comparison to those other investments, since I did not really inject any extra value in BTC after late 2014/early 2015 that was not any more than a kind of customized DCA investing approach that was not going to break the bank.

Anyhow, I don't want to bombard you with too many of my particulars, except to merely proclaim that there are a variety of individual circumstances that can be considered both in terms of the quantity of a guy's initial investment, how a guy might consider maintenance of the investment in terms of practicality and then what a guy might consider doing once an asset does have time to appreciate in value and he has been in the investment for a decent amount of time  to both have more profits but never to have really invested into the asset in any kind of crazy way in the first place.. and sure some profits can be removed along the way, too so that a guy might feel more comfortable to be playing with house money, but those later down the road questions might be different from what you seem to be asking in regards to deciding how much to invest initially into BTC.. which I believe that I have also attempted to address that in the first few paragraphs of this post..
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I was debating whether I should post anything about one of the most recent (getting increasingly dramatic) bcash dispute, at all - and if so, where should I post it, but there are some potentially contentious matters going on within the space.. that can have effects on the space as a whole, including various kinds of affects on bitcoin, too - even if merely in the peripheries and even if merely in terms of propaganda, misinformation or FUD spreading, too.

Many of us who have been looking into bitcoin for a decent amount of time recognize bcash (BCH and BSV) as mostly scam projects that has mostly been based on false pretendings and also largely based on various ways to attack bitcoin (and simultaneously, mislead or pump their scam projects while using bitcoin in their name(s)), but also part of bcash's dynamics have been to attracted the disgruntled BIG blockers and to allow them to continue to argue over various kinds of nonsense in their already predisposition to NOT be willing or capable of either agreeing to ways forward with their shitty project or reaching consensus.  

So the initial Bcash (BCH) fork happened August 1, 2017, and such bcash (BCH) fork was made off of BTC, and then about mid November 2018, bcash SV (BSV) forked off from bcash (BCH).. to cause two bcash forks as of November 2018.  

Within BCH there has been earlier threats to fork off (within the past year or so) because miners want to be able to skim off revenue from their mining efforts in order to incentivize mining on bcash (BCH).. and one of the earlier threats of forkening off was averted earlier this year.

Anyhow, the forkening and the contentiousness over mining revenue in Bcash (BCH) has reared its ugly head again to continue to be contentious and looks like a forkening of BCH is scheduled for November 2020... and also we have one of bcash's (BCH) darling boys, Roger Ver, recommending to buy shitcoin Dash instead of pumping BCH... so of course, we have to see how some of these crazy marketing and posturing ploys might play out in terms of scam opportunities, drama, pump and dump and perhaps some blips with moving of hash power (mining power) in bitcoin being played (since both BCH and BSV use the same mining algorithm as bitcoin, so far)... even though bitcoin's mining power remains so stratospherically hight that I doubt that various shitcoin drama (whether BCH or BSV) is going to have much if any affects on the security of bitcoin mining itself, except maybe to the extent that there could be some possible FUD spreading that might be attempted to be connected with such ongoing drama in the space in the coming months.

Here's a site that shows the relative size of the bitcoin mining hashpower as compared to bitcoin and the two bcashes  - which you will see that bitcoin tends to retain at least 95% of the sha256 hashpower on an ongoing basis. 

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/dif...sv.html#3m


Below are links to a twitter thread regarding the BCH forkening/dash drama and a Cryptobriefing article from today, too.

https://twitter.com/bennd77/status/1296048038981636096

Roger Ver Tells Disgruntled Bitcoin BCash (BCH) Faction to Buy Dash
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JJG
Quote:That doesn't have anything to do with bitcoin, unless you are just trying to suggest that various asset classes are moving in their prices, but what is the bitcoin connection exactly, if any?

I was just making a comparison really. Both Bitcoin and Rhodium made their low point around March 2020. Bitcoin rebounded a little less than 3X and Rhodium rebounded a little more than 5X as of today. Silver rebounded a little less than 3X as well in the same time frame but has pulled back a little as of past 7 days.

I find it curious just how much noise and hype Bitcoin creates and to a lesser extent gold and silver while Rhodium outperforms all by a wide margin and you hear almost nothing about it.

Obviously Bitcoin, Rhodium, Gold and Silver were all fantastic plays over the past half year. No one would complain about the performance of any of them .
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(08-19-2020, 05:27 PM)Daryush Neubache Wrote: JJG
Quote:That doesn't have anything to do with bitcoin, unless you are just trying to suggest that various asset classes are moving in their prices, but what is the bitcoin connection exactly, if any?

I was just making a comparison really. Both Bitcoin and Rhodium made their low point around March 2020. Bitcoin rebounded a little less than 3X and Rhodium rebounded a little more than 5X as of today. Silver rebounded a little less than 3X as well in the same time frame but has pulled back a little as of past 7 days.

I find it curious just how much noise and hype Bitcoin creates and to a lesser extent gold and silver while Rhodium outperforms all by a wide margin and you hear almost nothing about it.

Obviously Bitcoin, Rhodium, Gold and Silver were all fantastic plays over the past half year. No one would complain about the performance of any of them .

Oh, your explanation clarifies what you meant by that, and sure, I see what you are saying, now. Sometimes in the short-term we will see correlation of the price performance of various asset classes, but those kinds of short-term correlations could still mislead us in terms of either how to play the short term (if we are into doing that) or how we should allocate on a longer term basis.

You likely realize that many of the gold and silver bugs advocate holding the actual physical metal rather than paper representations, and we have also seen that the paper representations can end up fucking up the market and even fucking up people when they are trying to figure out what to do or how to play their holdings during some kind of liquidation crisis or even having channels available for them during liquidation.

Surely, bitcoin's lack of physicality (as difficult as that might be for some folks to grasp, not saying you Daryush Neubache) does bring some advantages to it - which we had seen play out in some respects regarding the oil futures and their negative prices in
April that were based, in part, on some short term difficulties in trying to figure out how to deal with the then burdens of its physicalities.

Still going to be interesting to see how the balancing of these various products are going to play out, because no one can deny that there can be some considerable benefits in some aspects of physicalities.. but industrial value versus monetary value is something that in recent times, some of us are learning more about such distinctions, too.
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Here's a nice little tweet to remind us of the ongoing upwards moving BTC price - which is looking at the 200 week moving average (Of BTC's price) and to inspire some confidence regarding what might be possible practical BTC price floors (even though we should never say never, in bitcoinlandia).

[Image: EfxUqI4WkAE5dgp?format=png&name=small]

https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/statu...03008?s=21


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ICYMI: #bitcoin[Image: Bitcoin_2020.png]     is nicely moving away from 200 week moving average. 200WMA is currently $6400, is increasing $200 per month, and has never decreased. Best of all, BTC monthly close has never been below 200WMA.
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