The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics)
Seems that I had posted previously about chatting applications on lightning network, which would, in essence, facilitate a kind of decentralized censorship resistant chatting.

Below are links to a twitter thread and update from November and also a github submit (overview) that seems to have been last updated in late December.
(03-21-2020, 07:07 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: Here's a tweet thread of a series of recent bitcoin (crypto) news articles.

Including this recent article from Binance CEO CZ that argues that the recent BTC price crash does not establish that BTC is NOT a safe haven asset.

Here's some more articles that seem to relate to my earlier post regarding bitcoin's proposed return to safe haven status.

And a tweet reference, too:
Here's another article from today talking about bitcoin's safe haven aspect, at least pointing out some historical comparisons and arguments that bitcoin had not been intended to be correlated to traditional markets or asset classes in these kinds of times of crises (or potential crisis).
Here's an interesting article regarding an observed phenomena in Venezuela in terms of BTC trading surging after Venezuela banks shut down.   I am not really sure if there is any kind of sustainable point to be gathered here, or if the observation is merely a temporary correlation that ends up NOT having long term significance.
For some reason, even though I likely have posted previous charts from the below-linked website, I do not recall my attention being raised towards all of the very interesting links of charts that they have on their page...  Worth a perusing in terms of active information, and probably, I am going to keep it within my resources tabs so I can refer to it from time to time, for some live updates and/or to get some perspective regarding current happenings or whether representations might be accurate or not.

For example, there is a live page that gives a variety of running stats (including tx output, medium fee, mempool, blockspeed, hashrate and difficulty) at a glance that shows their movement and performance over the past year or zooming in to the last month in order to attempt to verify if any of these have changed in recent times.

Some times folks will be preaching doom and gloom or making some kinds of representations that bitcoin is broken or bitcoin is erratic, and the reality of the matter can sometimes be measured and assessed more accurately with some bitcoin (or even lightning network) visuals.
Here's another similar tweeted image of a stock market, gold and bitcoin trend comparison that I had shown previously; however, this one shows 2008 compared to current times.

[Image: ETxeJLBVAAAWIDz?format=jpg&name=small]
Here's a link to an interesting and informative research report about mining that came out last week.

Here's an overview quote of the objectives of the paper:


>>>>>>>> We will analyze the following:
  1. The Bitcoin Network:
    • Who are the market participants and how do they influence the price of Bitcoin?
    • Peeling back the layers of the Mining Network.
  2. How Next Generation Mining Rigs Have Leveled the Playing Field – Keeping High Electricity Rate Miners in the Game.
  3. Busting the Myth – “Breakeven Price of the Miner is a Price Floor.”
  4. Impact of the 2020 Halving on the Bitcoin Industry – Hitting the Trifecta. 
  5. Difficulty: Satoshi’s Ingenious Network Stabilizing Mechanism – Understanding its Gravitational Pull.
  6. How Miner Capitulation Accelerates Bottoms in Bitcoin.<<<<<<<<<<

I don't recall posting any article previously on LN Markets, which seems to be an operational trading market on lightning network.... largely trustless and decentralized.

There is a little video that shows that it should be easy, even though it would likely take a little bit of time to set up.

Here's a nice little article from today that gives summarily overview of:

>>>>>>>Four big reasons to be bullish on bitcoin:

1. The case for bitcoin as a form of payment shines.
2. Bitcoin remains a deflationary asset.
3. Bitcoin is currently on sale.
4. Reward halving is only 50 days away.<<<<<<<<
I hope you're right JJG. I'm hoping there will be massive acceptance of this new technology since our financial system appears to be ripping at the seams.
(03-23-2020, 08:28 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: I hope you're right JJG. I'm hoping there will be massive acceptance of this new technology since our financial system appears to be ripping at the seams.

I did not know that I was trying to be right about anything except for largely suggesting that guys consider starting out with a 1% to 10% allocation in bitcoin and to assess their own financial/investment situation regarding whether such allocation into bitcoin is prudent and practical for them considering the specifics of their own situation.  

Otherwise, in this thread, I am just continuing to share bitcoin related information, and guys have to end up choosing for themselves about how to take that information or to interact with it or to prove their own perspective to this thread.  

Sure, you have likely heard from me on a variety of occasions that in my personal opinion, I think that guys are crazy who dismiss NOT taking any stake at all in bitcoin, such as at least a 1% stake, but understandably, guys are going to choose for themselves regarding their investment strategy and if they understand bitcoin sufficiently enough to at least employ that level of stake, and I also believe that there are a decent number of other people who seem to NOT be taking BTC seriously enough, at least from my perspective, and so in that sense, BTC seems to be undervalued (of course I could be wrong and including the BTC price prediction models, too).  

Hopefully, you or any other guy here are not relying too much on me for anything beyond the sharing of information and ultimately you are coming to your own conclusions and assessment of the BTC situation relative to other investment and your own circumstances, etc etc... 

Furthermore, since I am posting anyhow, here's a link to another interesting contemporary BTC article regarding ongoing analysis of bitcoin's correlation and/or possible decoupling that may or may not happen.
The US Govt. is likely to make all kinds of weird ass and quasi-illogical assertions regarding either what they are doing or what is going to effectively buttress the strength of the USD, including recent reinvigoration of discussions about the utility and practicality of the digital dollar.

I have little clue about what half of the discussion means exactly, but surely there is ongoing desires to eliminate actual physical cash, so there is that dynamic going on too.
I'm buying some more. I think the worst damage is done and won't go much lower than it is now, with China recovering and Europe at the corona peak now.
(03-24-2020, 12:39 AM)Rottenapple Wrote: I'm buying some more. I think the worst damage is done and won't go much lower than it is now, with China recovering and Europe at the corona peak now.

Surely, I would not discourage any guy from buying, and surely how much you buy and when you buy is going to partly depend upon your total personal situation, including how much of a stake that you already have in bitcoin in terms of meeting your personal allocation target amount.

So, yeah, if you are in accumulation mode, that would mean that you have not necessarily reached your allocation target, but you could be in a kind of maintenance mode and then just merely decide to add a bit more here and there on dips.

Whether the price is going to go up or down from here, might be a totally other question in terms of whether BTC is correlated to traditional markets, so thereby if traditional markets are going to go down, and surely there are decently strong theories out there, like what you seem to be suggesting RA, which is that bitcoin prices may have well already bottomed out with the kind of exaggerated correction on 3/12 including the bitmex exchange situation exacerbating that 3/12 correction.. so that there is NOT as much room for BTC to correct down.  On the other hand, BTC prices have bounced back around 70% from that $3,850 correction, which would leave fair arguments that BTC prices could dip back down again, and those kinds of dips would be completely and totally reasonable.

In other words, I am about as wishy washy as I ever am in regards to short-term bitcoin direction, which I would currently ascribe to being in the 50/50 ball park, which causes me to remain half correct no matter which way the price goes.   Wink Wink
I am fairly sure that I have posted some variation of the below chart, but does not hurt to view an update.. more passage of time and we are closer to the halvening, and a certain truth that BTC price has had a tendency to be significantly above its place  in the price chart as compared with where it had been at any point four years earlier,..... at least, so far we seem to be experiencing a 210,000 block's later phenomena, am I not rite?

[Image: ET5XUDFVAAA1wQM?format=jpg&name=small]
Here's a funny tweet that attempts to put the magnitude of the USA lawmakers stimulus money printing plans into a kind of bitcoin perspective.


>>>>the United States just announced the creation of nearly 50 Bitcoins worth of dollars out of thin air. Not 50 BTC, but 50 Bitcoin networks.<<<<<<
(03-25-2020, 01:32 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: Here's a funny tweet that attempts to put the magnitude of the USA lawmakers stimulus money printing plans into a kind of bitcoin perspective.


>>>>the United States just announced the creation of nearly 50 Bitcoins worth of dollars out of thin air. Not 50 BTC, but 50 Bitcoin networks.<<<<<<

 Likely in the near term there are going to be a lot of articles and discussions around the concept of the US gov authorizing the printing trillions of dollars.

Here's an article that discussions that a $2trillion market cap for bitcoin would result in bitcoin prices of about $100k per bitcoin, which seems quite plausible, given the context of so much more money floating around out there.
Here's a bitcoin status update that involves an extended discussion of the Mt Gox creditor situation.. what a cluster fuck for coins or other value to be caught up in that nonsense.
I am not sure if I understand the data that backs up the argument, but I generally agree with the conclusion that a  lot of weak hands were shaken out of their bitcoin during the 3/12 panic, and thus a decent number of BTC were transferred to stronger hands.

The below linked article seems to be making a similar claim, and shows some data.
The below cited tweet got me thinking about what is our current BTC price bottom jumping off point and what is the likely top of our next BTC price cycle (presuming that we are in the middle of one).


>>>>>>Most people think the last rally was 20X. #bitcoin didn't rally from $1k to $20k. It rallied from $200 to $20K = 100X. We are now at the $400 level of 2015. ?<<<<<<<

Since we seem to be in a somewhat liquid situation (current status, and questions about if the BTC price bottom is in), I remain somewhat unclear regarding what our reasonable jumping off BTC price point would be at this point in time for our current projected exponential cycle.  

Personally, I had assessed the 2015 starting off point as $250 (rather than $200), in part because we spent a decent amount of time bouncing in around that $250 price before the 2 year rise from about October 2015 to December 2017, which I have ended up assigning a 78x, as what I would consider a fair representation of the bottom to the top.  Of course, we did visit sub $200 on at least two significant occasions during that 2015 bottom, which was both January 2015 and late August 2015.

Regarding our current, bouncing off price point, I was kind of debating where reasonably (and fairly) that might be, and before our current price crash to $3,850, I had been thinking around $4,200-ish, even though sub $4,200 might have been more fair, yet it seems that my dilemma about sub $4,200 may have been resolved with our retesting a bottom that reached $3,850.

If that current bottom of $3,850 ends up holding, then $3,850 may be a decently fair number for an overall bottom (or jumping off point), even though we did experience a real low at $3,124, it does not seem that we spent a whole hell of a lot of time in the sub $3,850 territory, and currently, I am not really sure if it would be fair to ascribe anywhere in the $3,850 to $4,200 price area as a fair launching off bottom either... 

Probably, ultimately, my current point is that it seems to be a bit too early to decide what would be our fair launching off bottom, until we are sure that the bottom is in as a product of both time and quantity.  

Otherwise, I agree with the overall sentiment of ArminVanBitcoin, that our current price seems to be at some point higher than our likely to be starting off point, and we are likely going to have a decently high exponential growth in BTC prices in the coming years, maybe again lasting a couple of years before getting to the top.. not sure if late 2021 has reasonably been put further off, and of course, we have already witnessed that the specific curves of each of these exponential BTC price rises does NOT end up playing out exactly the same, even if they end up having a lot of areas of overlap (which is I suppose what PlanB is describing as co-integration).

Yet ultimately, I am thinking that we are likely to be quite less than 78x this time around, and 30x to 50x seems to be somewhat more reasonable, given BTC's ongoing greater maturity, which for calculation sake would bring our next top anywhere between $120k-ish and $200k-ish. Of course, we have been seeing some numbers that go much further and even close to $500k, which would put the top over 100x, which seems a bit much to me, but we also know that BTC does have past patterns of overshooting even the most reasonably bullish of expectations.

Don't get me wrong.  If all of this ends up being wrong, and we just have some minor boost that fucks up the various theories and patterns, then I still am going to be financially and psychologically o.k. with that, too... .. The models and patterns still seem to be quite convincing in terms of likely ongoing good times ahead for sat stackers and hodlers.

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