The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics)
(03-06-2020, 10:54 AM)Obermarschall Wrote: The thing is that many people are in Bitcoin not exactly because of money, but because we believe that Bitcoin will replace money as we know one day. I mean, yes you can earn and get passive income, but inflation will eat up a huge portion of it, but I guess you know that.

Not exactly.  Bitcoin will not replace money, CRYPTOCURRENCY will become officially monetized as soon as governments start issuing their own, sanctioned cryptocurrencies.  The Bitcoin as the replacement for money myth was started by those simply trying to promote it and pump it up on hype.

Also, I am not sure what leads you to believe passive income gets eaten up by inflation, but you have been misled.  Passive income quite often goes up with inflation and sometimes even OUTPACES it inflation.  Rent payments are one form of passive income that continuously go up with inflation.  In addition, most passive income is measured by yield percentage.  So if I get 12% each year for 10 years, the power of compounding ensures that the amount increases indefinitely.
Have you ever noticed it is your haters who obsessively read your every post, comment on them with the most emotion, and expend so much energy desperately trying to engage you?  It's because haters are your greatest, most loyal, and dedicated fans; they just have not come to terms with it yet.  Enjoy them because they are the surest sign that you're slaying it in life!  Big Grin
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(03-06-2020, 09:54 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(03-06-2020, 10:54 AM)Obermarschall Wrote: The thing is that many people are in Bitcoin not exactly because of money, but because we believe that Bitcoin will replace money as we know one day. I mean, yes you can earn and get passive income, but inflation will eat up a huge portion of it, but I guess you know that.

Not exactly.  Bitcoin will not replace money, CRYPTOCURRENCY will become officially monetized as soon as governments start issuing their own, sanctioned cryptocurrencies.  The Bitcoin as the replacement for money myth was started by those simply trying to promote it and pump it up on hype.

Yes... case in point, Contrarian Expatriate. Your own words showing that you don't understand what the fuck is bitcoin. You treat bitcoin as if it is "crypto currency." The two are not the same, even though bitcoin is the king daddy. There are no other crypto currencies that even come close to bitcoin.

Part of what distinguishes bitcoin from other crypto currencies is both its seven networking effects (as I have presented links to that in the past) and its proof of work that has incentive structures built around decentralization and ends up incentivizing individuals as well as governments and institutions (think financial institutions) to participate and cooperate in its system rather than to opt out.

Good luck with your decision to opt out of bitcoin and attempting to merely use it as a means to generate income in dollars, you are likely going to need it, unless at some point you learn what the fuck bitcoin is rather than holding yourself out as if you know anything more than diddly squat about it.

(03-06-2020, 09:54 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: Also, I am not sure what leads you to believe passive income gets eaten up by inflation, but you have been misled.  Passive income quite often goes up with inflation and sometimes even OUTPACES it inflation.  Rent payments are one form of passive income that continuously go up with inflation.  In addition, most passive income is measured by yield percentage.  So if I get 12% each year for 10 years, the power of compounding ensures that the amount increases indefinitely.

Sounds like you have this shit all quite figured out... , and aren't we so damned lucky that you are sharing these purported fool proof guarantees with us.

By the way, as I already suggested, I am all for aiming to achieve passive income, yet frequently, I have seen guys quite screwed into investing into crap assets and systems with expectations of passive income, and so in that regard, they frequently end up trying to achieve retirement status or fuck you status way too fucking early when what they really need to do is to ensure that they wealth level is sufficiently high that they can support their expected ongoing standard of living, and that shit does not come easy, and frequently that shit involves of continued and ongoing of folding any income back into whatever system is employed until it reaches a level in which it is sufficiently self sustaining and thus able to generate a sufficient amount of income to say fuck you.. and I actually used $2million as a reasonable thinking point that could work for a decent number of people, and if someone is really young and they retire, they would want to be continuing to build their cushion even while retired or maybe they are NOT yet ready to retire if they cannot really understand whether their system is going to be long term sustainable. NO one really wants to have to come out of retirement and have to flip burgers at mcdonalds or whatever other work that might not be preferred in the event that they miscalculated their ability to free themselves from the rat race.
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(03-06-2020, 10:54 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: Sounds like you have this shit all quite figured out... , and aren't we so damned lucky that you are sharing these purported fool proof guarantees with us.  
I wasn't providing this for you.  You've already established that you are 100% Bitcoin come hell or high water so you may want to just place me on your ignore list and skip reading all of my posts.  The fact that you won't is very telling however.

Some of the posters here are more discerning than you about finance and investing so the "ride or die with Bitcoin" approach will never work for them.  If, to you, sound investing principles are not immediately distinguishable from the "income systems" gimmicks you mentioned, then I am not sure you should even be managing your own savings young man.
Have you ever noticed it is your haters who obsessively read your every post, comment on them with the most emotion, and expend so much energy desperately trying to engage you?  It's because haters are your greatest, most loyal, and dedicated fans; they just have not come to terms with it yet.  Enjoy them because they are the surest sign that you're slaying it in life!  Big Grin
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(03-06-2020, 11:09 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(03-06-2020, 10:54 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: Sounds like you have this shit all quite figured out... , and aren't we so damned lucky that you are sharing these purported fool proof guarantees with us.  
I wasn't providing this for you. 

This is a quasi-public thread - at least for STW members... and yeah read only for others, so you don't really have much of a choice if you are interacting in this thread about such a topic.

You might consider sending PMs if you intend private messages, or maybe there is some other audience that you are seeking?

(03-06-2020, 11:09 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: You've already established that you are 100% Bitcoin come hell or high water so you may want to just place me on your ignore list and skip reading all of my posts. 

Get the fuck out of here with your nonsense suggestion or even implication that you are topical to this thread. The more you post, the more atopical you are beginning to seem.. and also the more ignorant you are showing yourself to be about the actual topic of this thread.

(03-06-2020, 11:09 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: The fact that you won't is very telling however.

Why the hell should I need to ignore you... especially if you are devolving into trolling which could result into a deleting, suspending or banning kind of offense.
I am NOT too inclined to sit back and let you spout bullshit, especially if you are seeming to intend to just spout out nonsense that is either NOT valuable to the thread and perhaps even intended to distract from the topic, which is the kind of conduct that trolls engage in. So if you are not shilling some nonsense product or approach, then your conduct might well be better categorized as trolling.. and no real intention to actually contribute anything of value to STW members, but instead to clutter the thread with nonsensical distracting ideas (to the extent that you actually have any ideas?).

(03-06-2020, 11:09 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: Some of the posters here are more discerning than you about finance and investing so the "ride or die with Bitcoin" approach will never work for them. 

I could give less than two shits about your assessment about what members may want or be able to discern. If it seems that you are not staying on topic and you are purposefully cluttering the thread, then something will need to be done about you. So far, I have been attempting to give you some benefit of the doubt.

In terms of my perspective on bitcoin or my permissiveness of pro or con views of bitcoin, that may not matter too much because I do not have any administrative authority in regards to this thread beyond being the thread starter and its most active member. Otherwise, I personally don't mind either pro or con contributions, as long as the members are genuinely attempting to contribute and to keep their discussion mostly related to the topic of the thread.

(03-06-2020, 11:09 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: If, to you, sound investing principles are not immediately distinguishable from the "income systems" gimmicks you mentioned, then I am not sure you should even be managing your own savings young man.
Huh? I don't even know what the fuck you are talking about here. This thread is not about either sound investment principles or income systems, so I could give less than two shits about whatever distinction you are trying to make in that regard. If you have some kind of attempt to provide information about bitcoin, then let it roll, otherwise, I just see you devolving into nonsensical irrelevance, including your lame ass attempts to assess my supposed level of competence, which is far from a relevant topic in this particular thread, either.

In other words, snap the fuck out of it Contrarian Expatriate, and try to get yourself back onto the topic of this thread, otherwise get the fuck out of here and either post in some other thread or create your own... on whatever topic that you want, to the extent that it is permissible by forum rules. Tongue
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Here's an interesting article from a few days ago suggesting that bitcoin is only recently beginning to serve as a safe haven asset for some investors.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-h...-grayscale

Here's one of the quotes from the article:

>>>>>>>“So I talk to an institution, they now look at Bitcoin as part of the same flight to safety as they might look at bonds or gold or other things that have served in that capacity for them, and that wasn’t a widely-held narrative probably until about the last 12 or 18 months.”<<<<<<<
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Here's some interesting articles from a couple of days ago that discuss the Indian supreme court overruling Indian banking authorities decision to shut down various bitcoin and crypto exchanges.  The ruling allowed the exhanges to open back up after nearly two years of having to be shut down.  Holy shit.

https://www.coindesk.com/indias-supreme-...-exchanges

https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/03/india-...y-trading/
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Cannot leave out the french, right?  Largely the below article tells about one of the french court's ruling that bitcoin can be used as a currency.

https://7bitcoins.com/french-court-recog...-currency/

Here's an excerpt: 

>>>>“The scope of this decision is considerable because it allows bitcoin to be treated like money or other financial instruments. It will therefore facilitate bitcoin transactions, such as lending or repo transactions, which are growing, and thus favor the liquidity of the cryptocurrency market , ” says Hubert de Vauplane, lawyer specializing in Kramer & Levin."<<<<<<
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It appears that the revolution is going to be financed through bitcoin, according to the below linked medium post.


https://medium.com/knox-blog/the-revolut...9427d89410
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Here's a nice optimistic article that might cheer up some guys, perhaps?


https://www.newsbtc.com/2020/03/08/analy...lish-9000/
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https://wallstreetplayboys.com/market-ch...portunity/

WSP didn't explictly talk about bitcoin but I want to hear your take:

"Notice, this is based on historical recommendations and no one really knows what will happen to the crypto currency market. It’s a strange one as we realize the paragraph contradicts what we’re saying (since crypto is a new/emerging market). Our bet, which may prove to be wrong, is that a fixed asset crypto like Bitcoin should act more like gold and less like a high flying tech stock trading at 40x+ earnings."

I'm on the fence about putting in more money into my business (lowball my suppliers) or whether I should put more money into my bitcoin funds.
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(03-08-2020, 10:53 AM)ChicagoFire Wrote: https://wallstreetplayboys.com/market-ch...portunity/

WSP didn't explictly talk about bitcoin but I want to hear your take:

"Notice, this is based on historical recommendations and no one really knows what will happen to the crypto currency market. It’s a strange one as we realize the paragraph contradicts what we’re saying (since crypto is a new/emerging market). Our bet, which may prove to be wrong, is that a fixed asset crypto like Bitcoin should act more like gold and less like a high flying tech stock trading at 40x+ earnings."

I'm on the fence about putting in more money into my business (lowball my suppliers) or whether I should put more money into my bitcoin funds.

Yeah, it is talking about overall strategies in attempting to prepare for a potential longer correction period, and attempting to figure out the extent to which having more in cash will be helpful in case your primary income stream dries up and whether crypto might perform similar to gold.

You have already heard some of this from me, in terms of my concerns about fuzzy logic when attempting to conflate crypto currencies and bitcoin, and the article does end up emphasizing more about bitcoin rather than getting too much caught up in more vague concepts of crypto.

Surely, when markets are seeming to move rapidly, it can be difficult to know whether action should be taken during the time that it is moving a lot or to just ride it out and hope that it either flattens out or bounces back somewhat to where it was previously. No one feels good to be the last one taking action because then you end up doing the opposite of what you should have been doing in terms of the buying low and selling high principles of any investment.... but also sometimes it could be good to cut some losses in certain circumstances too.

As far as your personal circumstances, Chicago Fire, it seems difficult for me to know much of anything regarding what is the business that you are weighing in terms of trying to figure how to apportion it, and of course, it does not have to be an all or nothing tradeoff, and whether there is any kind of current "great" opportunity in bitcoin relative to your business is surely difficult to know. Even with our various current BTC corrections, and even if we were to revisit mid-$6ks, we are not really out of line with various compelling price prediction theories such as 1) stock to flow, 2) four year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential growth based on network effects.

Many times, I have asserted that there are likely going to be attempts and even incentives for status quo institutions such as governments and finance to attempt to prove that those above prediction models are wrong or to make them incorrect. I certainly have my doubts about whether status quo institutions are going to be successful, but I would not be surprised to see some decently strong attempts at trying to prove such BTC price prediction models to be wrong.

In any event, sometimes it can be quite difficult to figure out how bitcoin's correlation or lack of correlation is playing out in regards to the price prediction models or even in terms of the short-term price performance of various other assets. It is not unusual that in the short-term there can be a lot of seeming correlation that might not play out so much in a longer time frame of a few years, and of course, bitcoin remains a new/emerging asset class (as that article had pointed out), so there are a whole hell of a lot of people who are still both learning about bitcoin and trying to figure out the extent to which bitcoin might fit into their investment plans whether as a kind of hedge or even more involved safe haven type dynamics that could end up playing out (but far from guaranteed currently).

Of course, ChicagoFire, if you have already invested into bitcoin in the 1% to 10% range, then I might need to understand better if you are contemplating going out of that range or if there would be any kind of justification to go outside of that range, but yes, I also understand if you are trying to build a business, sometimes, businesses can suck a lot of capital, and sometimes they will ONLY be successful if they are sufficiently capitalized, too... so those seem to be specific to your situation in a way that would be difficult really understanding unless you provided more details, and I am not sure how much that might be devolving into off-topicness, even if it is a definite real world consideration that might be causing you to weigh how investing into bitcoin might weigh up to putting your money in another place(s).
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I'm concerned for younger guys who might have a significant percentage of their portfolio in Bitcoin/crypto.   Regardless of your opinion on it, everyone should take a good look at the asset allocation of his portfolio and the risk he may be taking on.  There is nothing wrong with rebalancing to a smaller percentage crypto and diversifying into other assets.
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(03-08-2020, 06:49 PM)Lampwick Wrote: I'm concerned for younger guys who might have a significant percentage of their portfolio in Bitcoin/crypto.   Regardless of your opinion on it, everyone should take a good look at the asset allocation of his portfolio and the risk he may be taking on.  There is nothing wrong with rebalancing to a smaller percentage crypto and diversifying into other assets.

Sure, every guy needs to consider his own situation, and sure, let's take the younger investor as an example.

A younger investor might not have a very large amount of investment capital, and in my opinion, he should still not be engaging in gambling behaviors with his money.

Let's also get this clear, I don't believe that crypto and bitcoin is the same, so I don't really want to get into too many discussions about potential benefits of investing into other cryptos short term or having some insider knowledge about any of them.  Personally, I believe all the other cryptos to be crap and only short term gambles, so I do not recommend them, even for younger investors.  

Sure, I know that some young investors and even some smart people (including young investors) differ in opinion from me about the advantage of getting some exposure to other cryptos, and I am not necessarily saying that they might NOT be right, but I personally believe that to be topics of another thread.

So, again, let's stick to bitcoin here.  Accordingly, it is quite difficult to say that some younger person(s) might be overinvesting into bitcoin or should be rediversifying if we do not know circumstances, so maybe, Lampwick, you need to be a bit more specific in terms what you are considering to be the circumstances of a younger investor that might cause him to need to rediversify out of bitcoin somewhat.  What are those circumstances that you are suggesting?   

In some of my earlier posts, I already presented some decent hypothetical examples of some situations in which a guy might have been dollar cost averaging into bitcoin over the past 2 years or the past 3 years, and in both situations, the guy is up in comparison to other investments such as gold or the stock market.  Are you saying guys in those situations should reallocate, now?  How should they reallocate?  or are you referring to some other kind of hypothetical person?  If you are referring to guys who are overinvested into other crypto, then I agree, get the fuck out of the other crypto, but if you are referring to guys in bitcoin, you might need to be more specific about the situation of the guys that you are hypothesizing.

Let me try to help your potential hypothetical of a guy who might take out some profits.. Let's say that a guy invested a bunch into bitcoin in late 2018 and early 2019 that is averaging costs per BTC in the $4k to $6k arena.  Sure there might be some guys like that, who are around 100% up.  Are you talking about those kind of guys or some other kinds of guys?

As, you can see, Lampwick, I am having some trouble understanding the kinds of guys who might need  to shave off some profits, especially if we are trying to stay focused on bitcoin rather than getting muddled up with crypto, so hopefully you can recognize that I am not trying to fuck with you, but instead, I am really trying to appreciate some of the concerns that you might have and if you know guys that fit certain categories of concern or if you might be one of those guys that is considering shaving off some here.  

As an overall approach, in terms of investing into bitcoin, I personally do not advocate selling much if any BTC when prices are correcting, so I considering going down to be either holding territory or buying territory, but I am not opposed to some selling on the way up, but I am not any kind of all or nothing guy, either, so I really believe in incrementalism shaving, to the extent that guys feel better to shave some profits, but that would be on the way up rather than on the way down, presuming that we might be going down more... which also seems to be far from certain beyond much more than 50/50 at this point.
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Thanks for the reply JJG.

"I personally do not advocate selling much if any BTC when prices are correcting"
When would you sell? I'm on the boat of once BTC hits 100K I'm selling. At that hypothetical point I would have more money than I've ever seen in my life. Don't care if you all don't believe me but at this point in time I could stop working and be fine for the next 2 years. Also good point for thinking about some of the more younger investors. Some of us were born poor and last thing you want to do is go on a crazy spending spree....

Some things I might do:
Buy up real estate in a conservative state and hightailing Chicago.
Buy a franchise.
Buy other assets and apply certain skills to cause them to increase revenues.
Maybe get a master's degree.
Apply for dual citizenship.

What I won't do:
Flex on social media, go to strip clubs, go on drug binges.

I can delete this or stop talking about what I would spend money on if BTC hits the stars.
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(03-08-2020, 07:27 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: I can delete this or stop talking about what I would spend money on if BTC hits the stars.

The point of my post is to start thinking about what happens if BTC does not hit the stars and the opposite happens.  There are a lot of others who are holding and also fantasizing about what they will do with their hypothetical gains.  What happens if the price continues to drop and they stop believing the dream?  If you are overallocated to BTC and this happens, then it can be quite painful.

Remember in times like these, liquidity is very important, and people are looking to sell assets to get it.  Prices can move quite drastically in an illiquid asset like crypto.

If you believe in it, great.  Allocate a percentage of your portfolio that won't be ruinous if things go south.  Protect your downside as well as your upside.
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(03-08-2020, 07:27 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: Thanks for the reply JJG.

"I personally do not advocate selling much if any BTC when prices are correcting"
When would you sell?

You might not want to use me specifically as an example because I believe that I have tailored a system that I believe has been working good for me and is likely to continue to work good for me based on what has already occurred and what I believe is likely to continue to occur.

You should keep in mind that when I got into bitcoin in late 2013, I was already pretty damned close to retirement stage in terms of having had built up my finances and I had already been in a kind of stage of planning to travel, so I was preparing for that in 2014 and thinking about getting into that mode in 2015 or so... However, in early 2015, I had a business partner that quit on me, and I have been spending a lot of time trying to clean up that mess and really just getting back in the mode of planning for traveling. Nothing is really easy, so I cannot argue that my plans of going into a kind of permanent travel state are going to work out.. but we will see.

So, getting back to how the evolution of my bitcoin investment plan has played into my concerns for generating cashflow and being able to cash out at various points.

Initially, when I got into bitcoin in late 2013, I had considered investing 10% of my investible assets (kind of like a reallocating that would spread out over about a year) into bitcoin would serve as a kind of supplement to my other investments, and therefore, I would just see how that investment would go over the next 2 years or so and figure out if I wanted to tweak my bitcoin investment or to make it into something more permanent.

So, we know what happened with BTC's price performance, which then ended up causing me to engage in a decent amount of rethinking of my own perspective. My tentative plans were based on a perspective that there was potential that in the long run that BTC might end up overperforming my other investments, but in my kind of conservative preparing for the worst and hoping for the best, I was not really expecting any kind of super performance of BTC, so if i were to get anywhere between an average of 6% to 20% per year performance out of BTC, then that would be well in the most positive of scenarios for what I expected from my BTC performance.

Of course, I did not totally discount that BTC could way outperform my expectations, but the fact that BTC did way out perform my expectations caused me to make a quite considerably different cashing out plan than I had previously outlined. Yeah, I had some pie in the sky numbers for "best case scenarios", but I was really thinking that BTC's top in 2017 or so would be in the $3k to $5k territory, and yeah maybe there could be some shooting up to higher prices, but it would take quite a while to play out and to get up to $10k or even to stay there for any kind of meaningful sustainable time.

If we look back at BTC price history, we also see that bitcoin did not get anywhere close to outperforming my expectations until mid-to-late 2017, so in some sense I was kind of caught off guard by not only the amount of price appreciation but the amount of time that it took to get there... but once it was going there so quickly, I kind of saw that I needed to adjust my perspective regarding how to cash out on the go, and really, I did not see any kind of meaningful need to cash out of bitcoin quickly because I already had plenty of cash and property and all of that from my other investments, so I could not really see any place to put value when BTC prices were going up beyond the cash flow that I already had. So, in that sense I had seen that my incremental cashing out of small amounts was already generating way more cash than I knew what to do with.

Sure, this time around, presuming that BTC prices might have another exponential price rise, I don't really see any reason to deviate from my already established incremental cashing out plan. Yeah, sure, I might take out a bit of a bonus here or there, but I really don't plan on cashing out high amounts of value, and I understand that other guys might feel differently about that, so if there is a need to own some property or something like that, then I can understand that guys might want to cash out some of their value for that. Furthermore, I understand that there can be some inclination to cash out BTC at various points along the way up in order to have some cash in order to buy back if the BTC price goes down, which inevitably it is quite likely to continue to have decently large downward corrections at various points in time that are not always easy to predict and can drag out for much longer than we would like them to.

Even though I have not really engaged in any kind of meaningful cashing out of BTC, it is also quite likely that some point in the relatively near future, I will start to cash out up to about 1% of the value of my BTC holdings per quarter, and that 1% per quarter cashing out will not be dependent upon the BTC price (except as long as the BTC price is above $5k), so I am anticipating to not really be too worried about BTC price and just to be able to cash out at about 1% per quarter no matter what is the BTC price. At this point, that tentative cashing out of 1% per quarter is a theory that I have not yet put in to practice, but I don't really see any reason why it is not going to work for me and currently, i really don't believe that the BTC price is going to go below $5k for any significant time in the near future... and sure it remains decently likely to go up from here rather than down.. especially zooming out into even a 2 year plus timeframe.


(03-08-2020, 07:27 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: I'm on the boat of once BTC hits 100K I'm selling. At that hypothetical point I would have more money than I've ever seen in my life.

O.k. Sure... but a problem still remains concerning where you are going to put it, and if you are younger than 70, then you still might need to maintain some investment capital.. and even some liquid investment capital, and if you are younger than 40, then you are likely to have a fucking long life expectancy, so you gotta be careful to still have some kind of a plan for either preserving your wealth and/or generating liquid cashflow.. since you gotta live, in certain kinds of ways that might even involve banging chicks (they are not free), doing donuts in lambos and blowing blow. Tongue

(03-08-2020, 07:27 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: Don't care if you all don't believe me but at this point in time I could stop working and be fine for the next 2 years.

Hahahahaha... we don't need to believe you.

The thing is that sometimes it will not be a good idea for guys just to take 2 years off, merely because they can, but surely it can be quite good to know that you have the ability to last at least 2 years on your own accumulated capital, if you need to. Better yet if you are pretty damned sure that you can last 30 to 60 years depending on your age and expected lifespan and your expected standard of living (which have to account for inflation and even some unexpected expenses in there, too... and even unexpected changes in valuations of some of your assets too).


(03-08-2020, 07:27 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: Also good point for thinking about some of the more younger investors. Some of us were born poor and last thing you want to do is go on a crazy spending spree....

Hey, I was born pretty poor, too, so I know how to live meagerly.. yet sure, there are always some advantages in being born and growing up in the west, relatively speaking, so sometimes poor is relative.. Yet at the same time, if any of us is able to live within our means and knowing what that is, then that puts us at an advantage in planning and assuring how much we are going to need in order to sustain that in a kind of passive way.. and accordingly to be able to say fuck you... because we have established enough wealth and have diversified it sufficiently and even know how much we will need, including both increases in our expenses and even possibly being able to plan to continue to increase our living standards with the passage of time (so long as we know how to live within our means and continue to generate more income and wealth with the passage of time even on a passive income).

(03-08-2020, 07:27 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: Some things I might do:
Buy up real estate in a conservative state and hightailing Chicago.

Even land has some work involved... so sure, nothing wrong with that, but you still have to manage it, and sometimes can only generate income off of it if someone pays you for it (rent).


(03-08-2020, 07:27 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: Buy a franchise.

Seems like more work than land... but hey, if you want to buy yourself a job that might lose you some money, then that is your choice. Tongue

(03-08-2020, 07:27 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: Buy other assets and apply certain skills to cause them to increase revenues.

You should know your talents, so sure if you know ways to contain the thing from getting too out of control, then the more power to you.


(03-08-2020, 07:27 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: Maybe get a master's degree.

That surely can be building yourself, and whether you need it is a personal choice.

(03-08-2020, 07:27 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: Apply for dual citizenship.

Could come in handy... sure...


(03-08-2020, 07:27 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: What I won't do:
Flex on social media, go to strip clubs, go on drug binges.

I agree that flaunting wealth can get you into Opsec troubles, and surely I don't like to pay for girls, but I surely do no mind taking them out to eat and taking them on trips.. things that I like to do... but yeah, I am not really into strip clubs... not my style, either.

Oh yeah, healthy lifestyle is good in terms of making sure that you live a long time, but that should not mean that you do not enjoy yourself in various ways...

(03-08-2020, 07:27 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: I can delete this or stop talking about what I would spend money on if BTC hits the stars.

It does seem to be devolving into a bit of dreaming, but surely it remains good to attempt to plan how to approach your possible filthy rich status, presuming that it is possible to evolve into that... even though it is not guaranteed but it is good to have goals and even potentially reachable goals.. and of course, you can tweak those various goals along the way, too... you do not need to embark upon all changes in your life style at once if you were to start to generate more and more extra income...
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Lamp

I've always told everyone to have exposure to bitcoin but don't bet the house on it. Nobody seems to know where it's heading. Mark Cuban is getting sued for his crypto coin. As long as you have exposure and are willing to bet what you're willing to lose you will be fine.

@JJG
I saved your stuff in my database. I have too much going on to actively recall what I learn as the months and years go by.
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(03-08-2020, 08:07 PM)Lampwick Wrote:
(03-08-2020, 07:27 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: I can delete this or stop talking about what I would spend money on if BTC hits the stars.

The point of my post is to start thinking about what happens if BTC does not hit the stars and the opposite happens. 

Of course, we should be preparing for either up or down.

Part of a dollar cost averaging plan should end up that you are not investing more than you can afford to lose, so you can afford to still have everything covered, even if BTC were to go to zero.

(03-08-2020, 08:07 PM)Lampwick Wrote: There are a lot of others who are holding and also fantasizing about what they will do with their hypothetical gains. 

Yep.. .nothing is guaranteed, and guys better realize that. By the way, they are not just holding, but they are also continuing to DCA, buying on dips and some of us are selling small amounts of BTC when the price goes up... If you engage in such practices long enough, then you are likely to be in a decent place 6-20 years down the road from when you started. Of course, the starting point of every guy is going to be different, and it is likely to be quite foolish to believe that getting rich quick is guaranteed, and for me it took about 30 years to get to a point that I had accumulated a decently large amount of wealth, and bitcoin has made that better, at least for me and at least so far.

Seems to me that if guys are reasonable and responsible with their bitcoin investment and attempt to stay somewhat persistent and prudent with their bitcoin approach, then they have decent chances of reaching a decent wealth point in a shorter amount of time.. maybe 15 to 20 years, rather than 30 years, and maybe some will get lucky to be able to do it shorter, and maybe some will still end up having to take close to 30 years.

Getting rich quick should be far from guaranteed, and it might not be a good idea to get out of an investment too soon, but if some guys end up being able to retire early, then that could be a good thing, even though I don't believe in employing very much leveraging, even though a little bit of leveraging could be prudent, if that leveraging is strategically employed in such a way that guys are surely able to pay back the leverage even if their bitcoin does not perform as well as they are anticipating.


(03-08-2020, 08:07 PM)Lampwick Wrote: What happens if the price continues to drop and they stop believing the dream?  If you are overallocated to BTC and this happens, then it can be quite painful.

Don't overallocate, and prepare for the price to go down. If the price goes down, you can continue to buy.. or just hold but that is a personal choice how to play those kinds of dynamics which are surely possible. Prepare for both up and down, and preparing for down means having cash available to buy.

(03-08-2020, 08:07 PM)Lampwick Wrote: Remember in times like these, liquidity is very important, and people are looking to sell assets to get it.  Prices can move quite drastically in an illiquid asset like crypto.

Yep... exactly. I am going to assume that you are talking about bitcoin.. this thread is about bitcoin....

So, sure, Bitcoin does not have a long history, so in many circumstances it could end up being way too damned correlated to other assets, yet in the longer run, we are going to find out whether it might be somewhat less correlated than conventional wisdom might believe it to be and also to see if any of the most prominent BTC price prediction models of 1) stock to flow, 2) 4 year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential growth based on Metcalfe networking affects end up playing out.

(03-08-2020, 08:07 PM)Lampwick Wrote: If you believe in it, great.  Allocate a percentage of your portfolio that won't be ruinous if things go south.  Protect your downside as well as your upside.

that's right... 1% to 10% is prudent... and the more skeptical guys might end up gravitating more towards 1% rather than 10%. but better get the fuck off of zero... that would be prudent, too.

There are likely some guys that seem to go way too crazy and end up going way beyond 10%, and that may seem crazy from the practical perspective, yet do we know who those guys are? or are we just concern trolling in regards to guys that really do not exist or guys that we could give less than two shits about because they are gambling fanatics and are going to gamble no matter what, anyhow? Sometimes cannot save certain guys from themselves if they engage in martingale betting like practices in their real life behaviors.
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Here's a zoom-in on the stock to flow model, and the current BTC price does not seem to be too far deviated from the price prediction... which should show that any fear about bouncing around a few thousand in this range should be considered as largely noise... even  if there seems to be a decent amount of doom and gloom shouting out there... and recall, stock to flow is about bitcoin.. not about the large number of shitcoins that are likely in ongoing frothy territory to the extent that they might not be able to continue to hang onto bitcoin's coattails (which only time is going to tell about the ability of various shitcoins to continue to be able to do that).


https://twitter.com/bitstein/status/1198020672389361669

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With the four-year fractal theory, the BTC price is not even  behind schedule, but instead meeting expectations.

Surely the BTC price was a bit ahead of schedule at various points in the past, but currently, very close to on spot, at least under the four-year fractal theory.



[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FCWEpF7f.p...XvfdESvdfQ]


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=...sg53994038
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