The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics)
(01-08-2020, 09:46 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(01-08-2020, 03:35 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(01-08-2020, 09:03 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: Orange coin good

That sums it up, Swordfish.  Number go up, recently, and SpecialEd correctly pointed out (the obvious) that when number go up, HODLers of Orange coin become more excited.... Wink  especially more excited than those diptwats holding shitcoins and their number does not go up.... because go figure, what is going to happen (sooner or later) with shitcoins, anyhow?   Tongue

The drastic bull and bear markets bring in new comers, and only the true believers stay through the bears. Satoshi really understood human psychology. Hodl on comrade, we are just getting started. This is going to be a crazy year.

Even though Satoshi might not have anticipated a lot of the particulars of the various ways that bitcoin might be attacked or the market prices manipulated, I believe that there have been incorporated a lot of free market type incentives in terms of mining and also game theory that really cause for a decently large amount of incentives for acting in your self interest ends up increasing bitcoin's security and resilience.. whether we are talking about individual self interest or institutional self interest.... so good luck to the governments and banks that start to mine bitcoin and to run nodes.. or otherwise to be left chasing the bitcoin train, like these guys:

[Image: source.gif]

Is that SpecialEd in the middle?  Maybe billy ding dong in the rear?  Even looks like the USA govt is smarter than those other peeps because he was the first of the ones getting on the train, even though he did have to drop his bags. hahahahaha  Smile Smile
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(01-08-2020, 09:58 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(01-08-2020, 09:46 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(01-08-2020, 03:35 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(01-08-2020, 09:03 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: Orange coin good

That sums it up, Swordfish.  Number go up, recently, and SpecialEd correctly pointed out (the obvious) that when number go up, HODLers of Orange coin become more excited.... Wink  especially more excited than those diptwats holding shitcoins and their number does not go up.... because go figure, what is going to happen (sooner or later) with shitcoins, anyhow?   Tongue

The drastic bull and bear markets bring in new comers, and only the true believers stay through the bears. Satoshi really understood human psychology. Hodl on comrade, we are just getting started. This is going to be a crazy year.

Even though Satoshi might not have anticipated a lot of the particulars of the various ways that bitcoin might be attacked or the market prices manipulated, I believe that there have been incorporated a lot of free market type incentives in terms of mining and also game theory that really cause for a decently large amount of incentives for acting in your self interest ends up increasing bitcoin's security and resilience.. whether we are talking about individual self interest or institutional self interest.... so good luck to the governments and banks that start to mine bitcoin and to run nodes.. or otherwise to be left chasing the bitcoin train, like these guys:

[Image: source.gif]

Is that SpecialEd in the middle?  Maybe billy ding dong in the rear?  Even looks like the USA govt is smarter than those other peeps because he was the first of the ones getting on the train, even though he did have to drop his bags. hahahahaha  Smile Smile

Lol don’t even bother engaging the trolls, they will learn just like we did. Everyone’s path is different.
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(01-08-2020, 10:10 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(01-08-2020, 09:58 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: ....... whether we are talking about individual self interest or institutional self interest.... so good luck to the governments and banks that start to mine bitcoin and to run nodes.. or otherwise to be left chasing the bitcoin train, like these guys:
[Image: source.gif]
.......

Lol don’t even bother engaging the trolls, they will learn just like we did. Everyone’s path is different.

The break has done you a lot of good, Swordfish.

You come back so kind-heartedly gentle towards the troll/shills.   Smile

In the meantime, here is something to ponder too... regarding your "true level" of fishiness:

https://twitter.com/CryptoWelson/status/...4616504321

 [Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F6uNAxh7.p...v_u2Z9_Ejg]
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(01-08-2020, 10:15 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(01-08-2020, 10:10 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(01-08-2020, 09:58 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: ....... whether we are talking about individual self interest or institutional self interest.... so good luck to the governments and banks that start to mine bitcoin and to run nodes.. or otherwise to be left chasing the bitcoin train, like these guys:
[Image: source.gif]
.......

Lol don’t even bother engaging the trolls, they will learn just like we did. Everyone’s path is different.

The break has done you a lot of good, Swordfish.

You come back so kind-heartedly gentle towards the troll/shills.   Smile

In the meantime, here is something to ponder too... regarding your "true level" of fishiness:

https://twitter.com/CryptoWelson/status/...4616504321

 [Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F6uNAxh7.p...v_u2Z9_Ejg]

Killing my ego brah  Big Grin
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It is my belief that 2020 will be a good accumulation year.

Current strategy:
-average in weekly
-don't pay attention to the noise
-If BTC touches 200 week MA or below allocate position I am comfortable with.

Yes, tensions with Iran came down today...but the fed and central banks are still playing their games with QE. There is a correlation with the feds balance sheet and the movements in S&P.

Bitcoin proved yesterday that it is a hedge against geopolitical risk. Perhaps the central banks can keep the charade going for a long period of time...but not in perpetuity.
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Here's a nice series of tweets on the concept of economic reflexivity in order to attempt to describe some of the price dynamics in BTC.  Not necessarily new ideas, but complementary to other bullish BTC storage of value/scarcity concepts.

https://twitter.com/Rewkang/status/12149...99488?s=20

[Image: ENx8wyaVAAYAMGB?format=png&name=900x900]
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(01-09-2020, 01:01 AM)Nolimitz Wrote: It is my belief that 2020 will be a good accumulation year.

Current strategy:
-average in weekly
-don't pay attention to the noise
-If BTC touches 200 week MA or below allocate position I am comfortable with.

Yes, tensions with Iran came down today...but the fed and central banks are still playing their games with QE. There is a correlation with the feds balance sheet and the movements in S&P.

Bitcoin proved yesterday that it is a hedge against geopolitical risk. Perhaps the central banks can keep the charade going for a long period of time...but not in perpetuity.

You could be correct that 2020 might be a good year for accumulating BTC... but you seem to be implying flat or slightly down, even if there seem to be plenty of indications that the inclinations of BTC prices in 2020 might be more towards the upside rather than either flat or down.

I surely don't proclaim to be any kind of short-term BTC price soothsayer..

Here are some recent ideas from willywoo indicating his believe that there might be some front running and suggesting to acumulate early, rather than diddly daddling around too much... but hey, each guy has his cashflow limitations, too.

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1214...81536?s=20


Quote:

>>>>>>>
On-chain momentum is crossing into bullish. Prep for halvening front running here on in. Can't say what this indicator is, as it's proprietary to @AdaptiveFund, but it tracks investor momentum. The bottom is mostly likely in, anything lower will be just a wick in the macro view.<<<<<<<
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(01-08-2020, 10:28 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(01-08-2020, 10:15 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(01-08-2020, 10:10 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(01-08-2020, 09:58 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: ....... whether we are talking about individual self interest or institutional self interest.... so good luck to the governments and banks that start to mine bitcoin and to run nodes.. or otherwise to be left chasing the bitcoin train, like these guys:
[Image: source.gif]
.......

Lol don’t even bother engaging the trolls, they will learn just like we did. Everyone’s path is different.

The break has done you a lot of good, Swordfish.

You come back so kind-heartedly gentle towards the troll/shills.   Smile

In the meantime, here is something to ponder too... regarding your "true level" of fishiness:

https://twitter.com/CryptoWelson/status/...4616504321

 [Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F6uNAxh7.p...v_u2Z9_Ejg]

Killing my ego brah  Big Grin

Yeah... this level of fish topic can be an interesting one, and surely we take a snapshot of "level of fish" today, but soon down the road, we are likely to have different concepts regarding "level of fish"

I am tentatively anticipating that lots of regular peeps are going to be having considerable difficulties getting 10-50 BTC... .. and we might have some of those peeps involved in this forum who seem to be distracted into other projects and confused about the value of establishing a BTC holdings, even when they already kind of know about BTC...   On the other hand, there are a lot of normies who might have heard the word "bitcoin" but they hardly have a clue about what it is, so in that regard, some of those normies are going to be disadvantaged by their current lack of knowledge, but they are likely to be more than willing (in the future, when they find out what bitcoin is) to actually put a decent amount of their savings (investment) value into BTC.

So maybe even today's shrimps might have evolved into pretty decent territories, and we are soon going to need to start referring to satoshis in order to distinguish our various "levels of fish."

TLDR:  Don't be worrying too much about your current "level of fish," because I am sure that whatever it happens to be, even if some variation of shrimp, it will be sufficiently fine in the coming 4-6 years (or if you have a longer timeline of a few halvenings into 12 years or more), especially if you feel that you have already largely accumulated BTC/satoshis and/or have already created BTC/satoshis accumulation plans.
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Here's a nice orientation map, within the below-linked RobertSpigler article in Medium from today(yesterday)

[Image: 1*MrFD2dgfMb599kN8P9U--g.png]


https://medium.com/@robertspigler/bitcoi...cfd800d66a


Quote:

>>>>>>>In Conclusion:
I believe that most evidence points to the end of the bear market, and the beginning of the bull market. I believe we are most likely in the reaccumulation phase currently. There is a slight chance we could see one more dip before a bull run seriously starts, but it would be small in magnitude and quick in time.
For the long run, I feel very safe conservatively predicting $50,000/bitcoin by mid-2021.
@RobertSpigler<<<<<<
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Here's a great update article on the block that describes an ongoing discussion of Taproot /schnorr signatures that is anticipated to be attempted in soft fork upgrade of the bitcoin software in mid-2020 - ish... 

https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/5240...back-phase

Here's a relevant snippet from the article:

>>>>>>>Taproot is expected to be bundled together with Schnorr, a related upgrade that seeks to enable signature aggregation and make Taproot’s implementation possible.
Right now, the Taproot/Schnorr soft fork – proposed in May by Bitcoin Core developer Pieter Wuille – is moving through the ecosystem feedback phase as developers recommend and review possible changes to the draft. 
On Dec. 17, Wuille put out an update on the project during the final scheduled meeting of the Taproot review group, where he revealed that developers were finishing addressing all comments from the review and that the Taproot proposal was “nearly ready.”
The proposal moving forward is designed to save 30% to 75% in fee use and accelerate block validation by up to 2.5 times, Square Crypto product manager Steve Lee predicted during a presentation from last summer.<<<<<<
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Look at this little 13 second bitcoin loop advertisement, which is essentially imagining that:  "It is not too late to be early."

https://imgur.com/a/hm9BP50
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Here's a link to a bitcoin fee estimation dashboard that just came out through bitmex, can compare and average and see how the bitcoin fee amounts change over time.  


https://txstats.com/dashboard/db/fee-estimation?orgId=1
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Here's a link to a little blub of an article regarding bitcoin's correlation to gold and other storages of value during periods of volatility.. and I would suspect that bitcoin is going to greatly outperform many of the other storages of value because there remains so much room for moving bitcoin's market.. which is likely to have a snowballing effect, even if the current theoretical discussions about correlation remain wait and see kind of questionings.



https://paulcrypto.com/2020/01/10/how-bi...h-for-btc/
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The 35-second audio/video clip from the below-linked tweet has an audio and visual overlay of Peter Schiff talking about gold versus bitcoin in 2011 and at the same time showing what would have happened to the value of the investment if an investor had bought $10k of gold and $10k of bitcoin at around the time of the Schiff commentary.  

Gold has barely held its value in comparison to the dollar (which has not exactly held its value either), and bitcoin was up magnitudes of value.... I would partially agree that 2011 might not be a great comparison starting point, especially with Bitcoin as a very new asset class at that time, but maybe 2013 would have been a more fair starting point for attempting to make a price performance comparison of bitcoin/gold.


https://twitter.com/CryptoBull/status/12...22247?s=20
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You can use the below linked website to plug in numbers and to see what a Dollar cost averaging investing approach into BTC would have done for you with specific amounts and timelines and compare that to investing in gold or dow jones industrial index funds.

https://dcabtc.com/

 I would not proclaim that my method of investing is ONLY DCA, but I do like that website in order to assist with considering and brainstorming how dollar cost averaging into bitcoin would have brought varying returns depending on how much you invested and when you started. 

I would have liked the website to allow the importation of more than one method, and for example changing strategies part way through.  So for example with me, I front loaded my investment into BTC early on, and then the amount that I invested slowly became less and less especially after the first year, and in that site, I am not able to input my changed strategy.

My own investing differs a bit from what is capable of being seen, because I largely did most of my initial DCA in my first three years between late 2013 and late 2016... and maybe even a quite a bit of front loading and attempts to buy on dips that kind of scaled down as my stake in BTC had largely gotten established in my first year or so.. and a more modest DCA the next two years, and then later, starting in about late 2015 starting to sell small amounts of BTC on the way up and using those proceeds to buy back when BTC's price dipped.... so DCA has only been one component of my overall approach to BTC investing...  though I am a strong advocate of DCA.. especially as a starting off approach for anyone who is either just getting in or just too overwhelmed to study too much into any more complicated timing attempts, which timing approaches (in contrast to DCA) have tendencies to screw people who don't stay vigilant and systematic about their approach.
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Even though the below-linked article is a few days old, I don't recall sharing it here.  Maybe my memory is going bad?  Nice analysis and makes many decent points regarding bitcoin's ongoing dominance and likely continuation of dominance.


https://medium.com/@FidelityDigitalAsset...cad69460d9
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Here's a nice series of tweets that attempt to compare cultures of disclosure regarding stacking sats as compared with other asset class discussions.

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1216024933014347778

Stemming from this seemingly provocative tweet that is likely wrong and shit-stirring, so is successful in stirring discussion:

Quote: 
>>>>>Is the desire for newcomers to share their bitcoin ownership a unique phenomenon? You never see folks on other asset specific forums posting things like:
"I finally own X ounces of gold!"
"I finally own Y shares of
$AAPL!"
"I finally own Z dollars!"<<<<<
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Benjamin Cowen: (Time between market cycle bottoms) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwLAZAOX554

Bob Loukas: (Bitcoin 2020 cycle) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2p0G3XAccM

Two youtubers I very much enjoy watching as it pertains to the long term fundamentals of BTC.

Benjamin takes an analytical/machine learning approach while Bob focuses more on macro cycles. Both are worth watching if you are a long term investor in BTC.
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I don't know if the news of FTX (never heard of it) has much if any significance, but it is worth mentioning their announcement about enabling/launching BTC options trading on their platform.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-de...ns-trading
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(01-12-2020, 06:47 PM)Nolimitz Wrote: Benjamin Cowen: (Time between market cycle bottoms) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwLAZAOX554

Bob Loukas: (Bitcoin 2020 cycle)  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2p0G3XAccM

Two youtubers I very much enjoy watching as it pertains to the long term fundamentals of BTC.

Benjamin takes an analytical/machine learning approach while Bob focuses more on macro cycles. Both are worth watching if you are a long term investor in BTC.

Thanks for those YouTube links, Nolimitz.  I just watched each of them.. 9 minutes and 50 minutes respectively.. , and surely I have no real disagreement with the analysis or approach of either of them.

I am pretty sure that I have seen previous videos of each of those two YouTubers, and surely each of them have reasonable approaches to their bitcoin analyses.  I seem to recall seeing some kind earlier video of bear assertions of Ben Cowen... that I found to be a bit too much expecting of "down before up" as if  down before up were some kind of condition precedent for bitcoin to be able to move up.... and bitcoin does not work like that.. .at least in terms of there having to be absolutes... - even though he may have not been making his assertions as 100% absolute, I am just suggesting that I thought that he was expressing a bit too much certainty in his proclamations about what is supposedly necessary to happen.

I appreciate the style of Bob Loukas a bit better than Cowen, at least in terms of Loukas's proclamations/admissions that anything can happen in bitcoin price movements, and he continues to qualify his statements that we are referring to probabilities in BTC's price direction, while at the same time asserting that the four-year cycles are meaningful guidelines regarding the most likely price directions of bitcoin, even though continuing to be based on probabilities that could end up playing out in a different direction than expected.  

So, yeah in that sense, Loukas seems to be suggesting that investors into bitcoin have to come to their own conclusions while attempting to be reasonable about the BTC price direction probabilities...  by suggesting that investors prepare for both the up and the down possibilities in both psychological and financial ways, and also I like his little denigration of getting involved in alt coins and the seeming futilities of attempting to time such alt coin markets in order to attempt to gain more bitcoin.

Loukas does seem to have some nonsense assertions, too.. including his downplaying of the significance of the "coincidental" halvening.... so yeah, take those assertions/representations of Loukas with a decently-sized grain of salt.
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