The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics)
#41
(07-01-2019, 06:41 PM)whiteknightrises Wrote: Not looking good

Can you elaborate?

Of course, you seem to be talking about short term, so of course, we are going through a bit of a BTC price correction, currently.

Did you see how the fuck far and fast we flew past $10k...? 

Holy fucking shit.  You cannot expect something that explosively rises like that to NOT correct at some point, and so whatever is going on now, including the battle at $10k does not seem to be out of the ordinary, given the recent context of flying past $10k and also the context of going up more than 3x in less than three months, largely starting at the breaking above of $4,200 on April 1.

So, in other words, I am not sure what you are considering to be "not looking good" at the moment, because Jesus fucking christ, I am feeling pretty damned good about having had been in a decently already staked investment as of April 1 and beyond and to be sitting fairly pretty, at the moment, relative to the April 1, $4,200 starting point.

So maybe looking good or not, is a kind of perspective based on context?
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#42
Here's the announcement of another BTC futures license approval from the CFTC

https://www.coindesk.com/td-ameritrade-b...in-bitcoin

I don't know how significant this one is, in terms of increased finanicaliation tools... so surely overall it should be more bullish than bearish, even if it can be used for bearish purposes.
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#43
Feel like it might be a while before we get back to 13k.

Bearish sentiment seems to be growing not that this would mean a greater decline necessarily but im walking back on buying more until the dust clears a bit.
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#44
(07-02-2019, 01:39 AM)SpecialEd Wrote: Feel like it might be a while before we get back to 13k.

Bearish sentiment seems to be growing not that this would mean a greater decline necessarily but im walking back on buying more until the dust clears a bit.

Oh, Ok.

In recent years, I don't usually change my buy/sell plans very much, merely based on a bit of BTC price consolidation (which seems to be what is happening now), but you could be correct about waiting to see if there might be a lower price buying opportunity.

My system for several years has been to sell approximately 1% of the value of my stash for every 10% that the price goes up, so I am regularly buying back BTC with those same proceeds on the way down, and maybe, from time to time tweaking what I do in the selling direction or in the buying direction, yet the tweaks tend to only be slight in the whole scheme of things.    

Also, let's say for example, I were to receive some kind of extra income of let's say $6,000 or something like that.  I may end up making a decision about that $6,000 to divide it into three portions (of $2k each).  1 portion might be invested right away, a second portion might be dollar cost average bought over the next 2-4 months (or some other predetermined interval), and a third portion might be scheduled to buy BTC on dips at price intervals that I set from the beginning but I might decide to tweak those intervals along the way, in the event that my opinion/views may end up changing with the passage of time (or before I have actually used all of the buy on dip portion at the previously established price intervals).
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#45
9807 right now. My gut has been pretty reliable lately.
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#46
(07-02-2019, 11:15 AM)SpecialEd Wrote: 9807 right now. My gut has been pretty reliable lately.

Oh, at prices above $10k, I would have also said that the odds are greater than 50/50 that the bottom was not in, even though it was looking pretty good for a while when we approached $10k but bounced back above $12k.... So the most clear observation in this recent price range has been that there has been a whole hell of a lot of volatility.

Nonetheless, timing or catching anything near the bottom in bitcoin tends to a bit of a fools errand in that the odds might not become too great for one direction or another, and that seems to be one of the reason that setting your bitcoin buys in increments will allow you to not get left out when the damned thing finally does reverse back towards going up.

I will admit that one of the disadvantages of buying in increments is that even if you end up getting close to the bottom in your buys, you end up having a lot of buys that are way above the bottom, too.... while at the same time always being in the game... which is one of my main objectives, to remain decently in the game - even if also one of my going forward goals have been to increasingly spread out my buy and sell spreads in order that my orders in either direction are not triggered so easily on small BTC price swings.

However, yeah, here there does seem to be a decent amount of justification based on the extent of the recent amount of UP for the BTC price to keep correcting for a while, and surely there is a tendency to take advantage of momentum once it has been created, which seems to be down for the moment, even with a decent amount of uncertainty of knowing exactly when the down momentum is going to be drying up.

So, my punchline point would be that if I had to put a number on it, even a gut feeling is likely not going to be much better than 50/50 in figuring out if the bottom is in yet, or where the bottom is going to be exactly.. only rarely is the sign somewhat clear, such as a decent amount of correction and then a bottom that is accompanied by a large amount of trade volume, a spike down and a hard and clear bounce back.. Those kinds of clear bottoms are not always clear while they are happening, but they might become clear after the price has bounced back 5% or 10% after such an intense volume filled price battle happens.. hahahaha.
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#47
The below linked article asserts that UK regulators approved Prime Factor Capital as the first cryptocurrency hedge fund, which will allow it to custody more than 100 million Euro in crypto currencies.  Since the article was not explicit regarding what assets were considered as eligible for the company to custody, it remains a bit unclear the extent to which such company might be finding value in crypto assets, besides bitcoin.... Would be ironic if they held low percentages of bitcoin, when bitcoin remains king.. but who knows? sometimes there can be strange thinking that leads to strange practices in traditional financial circles.

https://www.coindesk.com/u-k-regulators-...hedge-fund
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#48
I don't know how good this guy is, but like all TA in crypto who knows eh

https://external-preview.redd.it/QRjrfDG...2cd2f450e8
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#49
(07-02-2019, 09:51 PM)SC87 Wrote: I don't know how good this guy is, but like all TA in crypto who knows eh

https://external-preview.redd.it/QRjrfDG...2cd2f450e8


It's not too good. 

Yes.  The BTC price flew above $10k with a kind of ridiculous speed, and it took a couple of attempts at breaking $10k buy support before it was able to achieve breaking such $10k buy support.

Nonetheless, today BTC prices have bounced back above $10k with a decent amount of vigor.

Yeah, the jury is still out because going back below $10k is surely within reasonable reach, yet in the past, frequently guys miss out when they fail to act and they expect the price to go down and it ends up going up.

So, in the end, it is good to prepare yourself psychologically and financially for either price direction, and especially being able to benefit by bitcoin's asymmetric bet proposition, which should largely mean buying and accumulating in a way that you are not overtaxed financially or psychologically.
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#50
(07-02-2019, 11:15 AM)SpecialEd Wrote: 9807 right now. My gut has been pretty reliable lately.

How do we all become an expert trader like yourself? Clearly you must have made $$$$$ with that gut feeling. Rolleyes
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#51
(07-03-2019, 07:08 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(07-02-2019, 11:15 AM)SpecialEd Wrote: 9807 right now. My gut has been pretty reliable lately.

How do we all become an expert trader like yourself? Clearly you must have made $$$$$ with that gut feeling. Rolleyes

hahahahaha

It's not fair to pick on other guys because it would be nice to encourage guys to post about their ongoing BTC strategies, including whether any of us might be able to learn from the sharing of thoughts about possible strategies.

Although, I also do tend to razz any guys who either make gambling like moves or when they try to suggest the direction of the BTC price with any kind of implication that resembles certainty.... 

Frequently, I get feelings that one BTC price direction is more likely than another, but I rarely will make any kind of major changes to my already existing employment of strategies, except maybe moving an order up or down a little bit or perhaps changing its size a little bit, which I consider to be very minor tweaks in the whole scheme of things - due to each of my orders constituting a pretty damned small percentage of my value.. usually not even .5% for any one  buy/sell order that I tend to have outstanding.  

By the way, when the BTC price moves a lot in one direction or another, the multitude of several small orders will definitely add up, but having had gone through these kinds of outrageous price moves in one direction or another on a kind of repeated basis, I have learned how to tweak the whole bunch of them in a way that largely makes me comfortable - even if the price were to never, ever, ever reverse - which would also be a kind of outrageous situation that I would not put past the realm of possibilities in regards to what bitcoin might do or is capable of doing.

Accordingly, I still get the sense that an ongoing conservative approach has a tendency to win the day in bitcoin, even if there are periods in which less money is made, and I do encounter some folks (largely on interwebs' bitcoin forums) that do seem to be making a bit more money than me in the short term by employing strategies that are a bit more risk-taking than mine... yet I largely remain too chicken-shit to be gambling much of my BTC holdings on feelings that cause me to get a sense of BTC price direction beyond 50/50 in any direction that I might get from time to time.

Hopefully, SpecialEd can provide us with a bit of an updated regarding where he is at regarding his bitcoin feelings, and whether he has either taken some actions or made some changes to his BTC buy/sell action plan based on a level of BTC price bounce back that seems to have gone a bit above any of our more pessimistic (including yours truly) expectations from a mere few days ago.
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#52
Below is a link to an interesting tweet announcing (and further linking information) from casahodl regarding a new lightning attempt at ease of use product that they just released/announced today.

https://twitter.com/CasaHODL/status/1146...61952?s=20
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#53
(07-03-2019, 07:08 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(07-02-2019, 11:15 AM)SpecialEd Wrote: 9807 right now. My gut has been pretty reliable lately.

How do we all become an expert trader like yourself? Clearly you must have made $$$$$ with that gut feeling. Rolleyes

With that snark, clearly you need to get your testosterone levels checked. Get that sorted and then i'll drop some pearls of investment wisdom for ya.Wink
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#54
(07-04-2019, 03:19 AM)SpecialEd Wrote:
(07-03-2019, 07:08 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(07-02-2019, 11:15 AM)SpecialEd Wrote: 9807 right now. My gut has been pretty reliable lately.

How do we all become an expert trader like yourself? Clearly you must have made $$$$$ with that gut feeling. Rolleyes

With that snark, clearly you need to get your testosterone levels checked. Get that sorted and then i'll drop some pearls of investment wisdom for ya.Wink

I would like to hear a status update, SpecialEd..... there was a bit of a mystery regarding your plan because you mentioned that you were going to buy at a certain point, which I believe was below $10,500, but then it seemed that you had not yet bought in the upper $9ks.. and I believe the lowest that the BTC price got this time around, was $9,614-ish.  Sure, I would admit that no one knows for sure, but even $9,614 is a bit over a 30% correction from the so far top of $13,880.... so sometimes it can be difficult to really expect more of a correction, even if whatever the fuck we have going on right now is NOT too likely to be over, yet.

I had a buy order that was a few dollars lower than the so far $9,614 bottom, so the lowest that I bought on this particular cycle was a bit more than $9,800..... I actually try not to care too much if my orders get filled or not, but when they come within a few dollars of filling, then I tend to make a few frustration grunts about those kinds of "close calls." (a kind of luck of the draw thing, in my thinking)...   But so far in this cycle, I had several buy orders fill, and in the past couple of days I also had sell orders fill too, in the  upper $10,000s, mid $11,000s and also in the upper $11,000.. so I am already back to selling.. of course, after I sold, then I am able to reset my buy orders for higher numbers, so I will begin buying again in the lower $11,000s, if BTC prices go back down to those levels, which surely seems possible, but even though I have a preference for up, I understand that there are a lot of forces pushing for down too, that may or may not happen, so I try to structure in order that I don't care too much either way.
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#55
You're not entitled to my investment strategies. Im not a professional investor anyhow so I dont see the value of advice from an internet anon. That goes for you too.

As Ive said before, I have income streams in btc. So any appreciation is icing on the cake for me. From my perspective, its a currency.
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#56
(07-04-2019, 06:48 AM)SpecialEd Wrote: You're not entitled to my investment strategies. I not a professional investor anyhow so I dont see the value of advice from an internet anon. That goes for you too.

I don't see how you go down such an adversarial suggestion about who is entitled to what.  We are merely brainstorming information.  So, yeah, if you are still working things out then that is fine, and I suppose if you believe that you have some kind of trade secret, that could be possible, too, yet I have found that usually something else is going on when guys start to suggest that they have some kind of trading secret.

By the way, I don't give advice and I don't seek advice, so I think that we are considering the advice concept with different kinds of framings.... with you seeming to advise me not to take advise, but I did not need that advise, because I am not looking for advise, but I do appreciate brainstorming discussions about topics that are of interest to me, and bitcoin investing and related topics continue to fall within my areas of interest.

(07-04-2019, 06:48 AM)SpecialEd Wrote: As Ive said before, I have income streams in btc. So any appreciation is icing on the cake for me. From my perspective, its a currency.

I suppose that is fair enough, even though it is a bit vague, if other guys might want to attempt to profit from sharing information with you, but if you are kind of vague about it, then maybe some other guys might not be clear about what you are doing exactly and whether there are ways that they might attempt to improve their own methods by learning from your approach - if that's possible?

By the way, part of your last sentence reminds me of my salsa dancing days, which were well over 16 years of experience. Sometimes, I would teach, and then sometimes I would discuss teaching techniques with other dancers, and sometimes they would be dissing my method of teaching including asserting that teaching by using numbers and counting the beat was too artificial in terms of dancing, and the best way to dance was to just move your body and to just practice in that direction. I frequently found those kinds of objections to teaching and suggestions to better ways of learning to be impractical, even though I do understand that people learn in differing ways. However, sometimes when you are teaching something, such as dance, using numbers gives a common framework in order to communicate what you are teaching and timing regarding when to do it, otherwise, if the teacher would just say do this, this and this, without providing some common references, the whole matter might just be way too confusing for the student trying to learn.

Anyhow, I think that a similar thing might exist in discussions about bitcoin, including discussions about bitcoin investment strategies, and whether you want to share or not, that is up to you, because I personally believe that a purpose of this thread and participating in this thread is to attempt to learn through others and also to share information regarding various techniques, strategies and views regarding what is happening in bitcoin, while hoping that we might be able to speak in terms of some common references, too. Of course, guys are going to have differing approaches and purposes, but if we are participating in this thread, we should still be able to try to figure out some common references in order that other guys will be able to learn or even to interact about whatever bitcoin related threads of discussion evolve through the back and forth sharing of points.
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#57
I never said I have a trade secret lol. Guess i'll have to spell this out for you again. I'm interested in btc as a currency and as a political instrument. Its appreciation vs. the dollar is really irrelevant as the dollar has no inherent value anyways. Talking about which way way the wind is blowing is an amusing use of idle time, but its not anything to scrutinize too seriously. I dont feel the need to update you all with every buy/sell order. And my choice to not do so is not adversarial. Nor does it somehow undermine my credibility as you seem to hint at. I've never offered anyone investment advice here. I merely bragged about my uncanny gut which swordfish found irritating for some reason unbeknownst to me.
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#58
(07-04-2019, 08:24 AM)SpecialEd Wrote: I never said I have a trade secret lol. Guess i'll have to spell this out for you again. I'm interested in btc as a currency and as a political instrument. Its appreciation vs. the dollar is really irrelevant as the dollar has no inherent value anyways. Talking about which way way the wind is blowing is an amusing use of idle time, but its not anything to scrutinize too seriously. I dont feel the need to update you all with every buy/sell order. And my choice to not do so is not adversarial. Nor does it somehow undermine my credibility as you seem to hint at. I've never offered anyone investment advice here. I merely bragged about my uncanny gut which swordfish found irritating for some reason unbeknownst to me.

I don't feel any dire need to battle, and I suppose that each of us said what we are going to say on the topic for the moment.  Perhaps our views are not as different as they might seem, but just catching the topic from a weird angle...  Bragging might come off from a weird angle too, but none of us are really immuned to bragging especially if we are able to make some decent plays that we believe to be profitable to ourselves.  Regarding the topic of bitcoin, I believe that if investors engage in a bitcoin accumulation strategy and bitcoin prices go up, then those are moments for bitcoin holders to be bragging about the advantages of holding and accumulating bitcoin - which has been something that I have been doing for more than 5.5 years, so I supposed that I brag about it from time to time, too. 

Yesterday, I also came across the below tweet, which I found to be interesting and amusing.


https://twitter.com/WhiteRabbitBTC/statu...5057286144


[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.twimg.com%2Fmedia%2...QDmQ30_sjw]
Largely, the tweet is showing that currently, bitcoin is greatly outperforming the vast majority of shitcoins, and accordingly, I suppose that I am bragging about that because I invest very little into shitcoins, and I get a little irritated when people try to suggest that some of them are either equal to bitcoin or that the shitcoin is serving some kind of meaningful purpose because bitcoin is deficient in some way, and so I suppose I am engaging in backhanded bragging when I am pointing out that currently, bitcoin is performing much better than shitcoins. .. and in that regard, I consider bitcoin to be a much better stable long term investment, even though some guys believe that it can be profitable to invest in shitcoins on the short term, to the extent that they are able to gamble and/or time their investment(s) into shitcoin with any kind of accuracy and/or luck.
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#59
The only alt coin which I think has genuine advantages over btc, at least on the privacy front, is monero. Hasnt performed nearly as well as btc but its still early stages. The people who arent happy with semi anonymity will flock to it eventually.
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#60
(07-04-2019, 11:23 AM)SpecialEd Wrote: The only alt coin which I think has genuine advantages over btc, at least on the privacy front, is monero. Hasnt performed nearly as well as btc but its still early stages. The people who arent happy with semi anonymity will flock to it eventually.

The purpose of me mentioning shitcoins was not really to provide an opening to discuss your favorite shitcoin or to go down the path of discussing which aspects of which shit coins are less shitty than others.

Frequently, shitcoin topics are used by trolls, shills, bitcoin naysayers and no coiners to drag us off topic, yet sometimes, it might be interesting to mention some shitcoins from time to time.  

For example, I believe that the only coin that 1) dollar cost averaging investing, 2) focusing on accumulating bitcoin and 3) presuming that the long term value is going to be UP is through bitcoin, and no other crypto project has independently created a name for itself in terms of long term value beyond attaching itself to bitcoin in some kind of way, so yeah, some of those other coins are going to perform along with bitcoin and even perhaps financially outperform bitcoin during various short term periods, but they are still clinging to the foundational security, decentralization, immutability, credibility and networking effects of bitcoin.

Segwit has likely helped a lot in this regard too, including causing an ability to turn almost every other alt into a sidechain... but of course it will take time to play out... and even privacy on bitcoin might be better developed on secondary levels, whether that ended up being a purposeful design or not for bitcoin, it may well end up being a kind of preferable approach.. so in that regard, monero (aka shitcoin) might not have nuttin on bitcoin in terms of supposed meaningful and practical claims to privacy.
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