The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics)
#21
(06-27-2019, 05:58 PM)JayRothschild Wrote: Sorry, I'm not interested in discussing technical information with some brain dead GED dropout. Do you see tech CEOs having substantial talks with taxi drivers and garbage men? Lol, get real. I spent 6 years digging into all formal programming methods, math set theory to db theory to CS languages to cpu architectures, and studied their flaws for why the future was not happening or at least the one I saw should have been happening. Everytime, it was always the same blindness. People start programming and they don't anticipate or generalize or even rationalize the architecture of the system to all anything dynamic and worse it is never checked for dynamic consistency... leading to a trapped "format" or "version" of data and protocols and lots of flaws.

Ok.  First of all, are you saying that you are a no coiner?  And you are a no coiner because you are so supposedly smart?

Was it dumb to make a lot of money off of bitcoin in the past 8 years or so?

I have only been in bitcoin for a little more than 5.5 years, but I made a lot of money. That is dumb, too?

For much of the time that I have been in bitcoin, I have suggested that guys attempt to tailor their BTC investment strategy to their own situations, and dollar cost averaging has tended to serve as a good means into any investment in which a guy feels confident about the fundamentals and long term price direction.   Are you suggesting dollar cost averaging is dumb?  individually tailoring investments is dumb?

Of course, you are attempting to suggest that there is something flawed about BTC fundamentals, but all of your supposed smarts on the topic is far from convincing.  It is possible that you know a lot of things, but you are missing something in terms of your assessment of bitcoin in terms of facts, logic and/or the conclusions that you have reached from such facts and logic.

Probably you are a lost cause.  Part of the start of having any kind of a meaningful dialogue is to actually attempt to grapple with actual facts and logic rather than spouting out a bunch of baseless conclusions, including your attempt to employ logical fallacies into the argument (ie your insertion of supposed status, about which no one here, besides you, likely gives any fucks).
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#22
(06-27-2019, 05:58 PM)JayRothschild Wrote: Sorry, I'm not interested in discussing technical information with some brain dead GED dropout. Do you see tech CEOs having substantial talks with taxi drivers and garbage men do you? Lol, get real. I spent 6 years digging into all formal programming methods, math set theory to db theory to CS languages to cpu architectures, and studied their flaws for why the future was not happening or at least the one I saw should have been happening. Everytime, it was always the same blindness. People start programming and they don't anticipate or generalize or even rationalize the architecture of the system to all anything dynamic and worse it is never checked for dynamic consistency... leading to a trapped "format" or "version" of data and protocols and lots of flaws.

See, this  why you don't talk with low level people. They only see what is right in front of them... 




[Image: 795.gif]
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#23
Quote:Bitcoin is for autistic retards and gamblers. Any "currency" not tied directly to either some unit of energy or time-work unit or some basis of exchange that is universally in demand is and always will be a bankers scheme/Ponzi scheme (same thing if you know the history). 

It is universally in demand. If the soaring prices over the last few years hasn't been enough of a clue for you lol. 

But by your own reckoning, you're an autistic retard. You've been posting your stacks of paper all over the place. Fiat has no fundamentals whatsoever backing it.

The greenback wont be the global reserve currency in the near future. Nor will the reminbi or euro. It will be bitcoin. You're like a telegraph operator in 1920 clinging to a way of life which is soon to be defunct. It's hilarious.
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#24
BTC is getting hammered right now though. Probably good time to buy back in.
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#25
(06-28-2019, 04:30 AM)SpecialEd Wrote: BTC is getting hammered right now though. Probably good time to buy back in.

Yes.  We had a price rise that amounted to nearly 2.5x, if we count from April 1, and a decent amount of that price rise came in the past week with a kind of mini-blow off top.... after getting within striking distance of $10k and surpassing it.. 

Even though some folks are feeling negative about the so far 25% price correction, I would not exactly label it as a hammering because the amount of the most recent part of the price rise was a bit outrageous in the past few days.

But, no one really knew when the pause was going to trigger and even whether there is more correction to go.. Of course, it does kind of feel as if more correction would be warranted based on the extreme nature of the recent up.

My sell orders were being filled at various increments all the way up, so when there is a reversal like this its not too likely that they will hit at the exact top, which would be the best scenario in terms of profitability.

I began buying back in about the $12,200 arena and so far my lowest buy back order was in the $10,400 arena.

I have buy back orders all the way down to about $3,600, but I am thinking that I am going to have to restructure my buy back orders if BTC's price starts to approach $7k which could cause me to contemplate that it might go lower than $6k and even that I might run out of money if the price were to go down to attempt to test the low of $3,122 (which to me seems like a less than 25% probability currently, but the lower that the price goes and breaks support, then the higher the odds become for going even lower).

Even though I come up with various theories about which way the price is going and what are the odds, I do NOT tend to tweak my strategies very much in terms of figuring out when to buy back, but currently, I would put $9k as having at least a 50% chance of hitting, but I certainly would NOT sell based on something that I consider to be somewhat greater than a 50% chance of happening, because frequently bitcoin surprises us.

So, if guys have already gotten in bitcoin, but did not sell any during this run, then there might only be marginal value to buy more, even though I would recommend just continuing with dollar cost averaging.

If guys do not have any bitcoin at all then that is a different story, and just getting set up with some kind of an account can take a bit of time, just to get started.... But no one is really presenting that scenario in this thread, at the moment, so might not need to address such a scenario in the abstract. 

If anyone is interested, we can discuss various probabilities for down and up, both short term and even medium term, and of course, there are likely to be differing views, and that is part of the reason why the price has been moving around so much, there are different views about both present value and future value of bitcoin, and when the BTC price is moving a lot, like it is in recent weeks, it becomes more apparent that the battle about price and the differences of opinion being played out in the market is going to continue, at least in the short to medium term.
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#26
^You're honestly going to complain about btc transaction times compared to ach or wire transfers lol? I can send $20k to the other side of the world without a single signature, phone call or bureaucrat balking within the span of an hour. One cant do that with fiat.

Eventually a "good faith" system will come into play just like credit card or debit card payments. These can be reversed via charge backs but that's just part of the cost of doing business. Same with 0 confirmation btc transfers. It is possible to reverse them. But the big bitcoin payment processors like Bitpay are already accepting them as payment.



Quote:SOLD MY BITCOIN A FEW WEEKS AGO

Now we're getting to the bottom of this. Big Grin Somebody is pissed that they lost out on the best performing asset this year.
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#27
(06-28-2019, 08:53 AM)SpecialEd Wrote: ^You're honestly going to complain about btc transaction times compared to ach or wire transfers lol? I can send $20k to the other side of the world without a single signature, phone call or bureaucrat balking within the span of an hour. One cant do that with fiat.

Eventually a "good faith" system will come into play just like credit card or debit card payments. These can be reversed via charge backs but that's just part of the cost of doing business. Same with 0 confirmation btc transfers. It is possible to reverse them. But the big bitcoin payment processors like Bitpay are already accepting them as payment.



Quote:SOLD MY BITCOIN A FEW WEEKS AGO

Now we're getting to the bottom of this. Big Grin Somebody is pissed that they lost out on the best performing asset this year.

1. Right, a network analysis is complaining lol

2. Then it wouldn’t be a peer-to-peer blockchain but rather a traditional client–server architecture. Second, clients would then have to trust servers. Remember, “not trusting anyone” is one of the foundations of blockchain. Moreover, good faith system is what OTHER coins are all about. They try to solve the problem bitcoin has

3. I only had one and I make 10x more from other investing. Gambling is fun for a little bit
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#28
1. Your network analysis is irrational as the existing alternatives have similar flaws, and are actually far worse in most respects.

2. Not trusting central banks is the core of blockchain. If businesses want to use middlemen to facilitate btc payments, thats their prerogative.

3. You would have made far more if you had put it all in btc. You're sour grapes, admit it.Big Grin
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#29
(06-28-2019, 07:59 AM)JayRothschild Wrote: 1. In universal demand? For what? Anyone who has ever tried to use a locally stored wallet for cryptocurrency discovered with amazement and dismay that he or she could not make or receive payments until the entire download and verification process was complete — a few days if you were lucky. The Bitcoin network is capable of processing a maximum of seven transactions per second — for the millions of users worldwide.

Seems that you are spouting out an old talking point with your attempt to suggest that bitcoin cannot be used for spending, or that bitcoin is not scaling fast enough to keep up with demand.. not really clear what you are saying or if you have any facts to back up your phoney baloney.

I think that the essence of the matter remains that bitcoin's network is open source and it will be growing with the passage of time. One of the main concerns with bitcoin is security and immutability, so in that regard, any changes to the actual online system is going to be slow. Segregated witness was passed and implemented in August 2017, and there have been second layer solution developments getting built on top of that.

Bitcoin is not going to be an out of the gate running system, but it does not have to be either, in part because adoption still remains less than 1% of the world's population, yet on chain transactions have been cheap and fast through bitcoin's history, except for a few periods in which there are spam attacks and other purposeful clogging of the network, but bitcoin has continued to evolve and to grow.



(06-28-2019, 07:59 AM)JayRothschild Wrote: Aside from that, Bitcoin-blockchain transactions are recorded only once every 10 minutes. To increase payments security, it is standard practice to wait 50 minutes more after each new record appears because the records regularly roll back. Now imagine trying to buy a snack using bitcoins. It’s no big deal to stand in line for an hour at the store, right?

When bitcoin was new, there were hardly anyone using it, so transactions were fast and cheap (almost free)... a fee market has developed in order to prioritize transactions. Second layer may be better for buying a snack or a coffee, but bitcoin remains very powerful for sending millions of dollars anywhere without asking permission or going through an intermediary. I think that part of the reason that bitcoin's price growth is so amazing is because there are very powerful use cases beyond small quick transactions that currently are probably better done in cash or with a credit card... In the future, maybe 20 years, bitcoin will likely take some of that smaller transactions market too, and lightning network has shown a lot of development in the possibilities of smaller transactions. There are other second layer solutions too that are being worked on, so we may not really know of all the possibilities that will result in 20years... but what is making bitcoin valuable now is the permissionless and censorship resistance aspects which are quite amazing in themselves.. try transporting millions of dollars in another way without asking permission.

(06-28-2019, 07:59 AM)JayRothschild Wrote: You may ask: If it’s all the same thing, perhaps we shouldn’t store it on every network node? Sure, it would be more efficient. But, first of all, then it wouldn’t be a peer-to-peer blockchain but rather a traditional client–server architecture. Second, clients would then have to trust servers. Remember, “not trusting anyone” is one of the foundations of blockchain.

You seem to be making a strawman argument here. bitcoin is whatever the fuck it is. You can either find a use case or you don't. I believe the market (and way smarter money than you) are figuring out some use cases that is going to continue to cause bitcoin's price to go up, inspite your attempting to find made up contradictions.

(06-28-2019, 07:59 AM)JayRothschild Wrote: If you consider the entire world, that sounds ludicrous even now, when Bitcoin is used by just one in every thousand people on the planet. And given the transaction-processing speed, significantly increasing the number of active users simply isn’t possible. For comparison, Visa processes thousands of transactions per second and, if required, can easily increase its bandwidth. After all, classic banking technologies are scalable.

At least you seem to be kind of grappling with the issue, yet these processes are going to take time to build. Bitcoin is not going straight into competing with centralized payment processors, and decentralized is less efficient in part because it empowers in other ways including the security, immutability and sound money aspects.

(06-28-2019, 07:59 AM)JayRothschild Wrote: 2. The risk of a 51% attack applies to bitcoin as well. If someone controls more than half of the computing power currently being used for mining, then that person can surreptitiously write an alternative financial history.

Good luck mustering up that much mining power or getting the mining power to go along with you. Furthermore, we learned that miners don't really control everything, so nodes may not follow the miners if they become too outrageous in any attempt to kill the golden goose.

(06-28-2019, 07:59 AM)JayRothschild Wrote: That version then becomes reality. Thus, it becomes possible to spend the same money more than once. Traditional payment systems are immune to such an attack.

The version becomes reality in your fantasy thinking.

(06-28-2019, 07:59 AM)JayRothschild Wrote: It may seem that if a blockchain is stored on each network node, then special services or authorities can’t shut down Bitcoin on a whim, inasmuch as there is no centralized server or something similar — they have no one to go to if they want to shut it all down.

Largely that is correct. Shutting down likely results in a game of wackamole.

(06-28-2019, 07:59 AM)JayRothschild Wrote: That is just an illusion, however.

Actually, all “independent” miners are merged into pools (technically, they’re cartels). They have to merge on the assumption that it’s better to have a small but stable income than a huge payoff maybe every thousand years (and even that isn’t guaranteed if you on your own).

Yes.. your theory sounds all fine and dandy, even though bitcoin is more open to entrants and free market competition than you are attempting to make it out to be.

(06-28-2019, 07:59 AM)JayRothschild Wrote: As it turns out, Bitcoin has become a prisoner of its own ideology. “Excessive” miners cannot stop mining; that would dramatically increase the probability of a single person controlling more than half of the remaining computing power

Summary: bitcoin WAS useful for hiding large amounts of cash like how rich rich Chinese buy real estate all over the world

The more you type, the more your thoughts appear to devolve into baseless nonsense.

(06-28-2019, 07:59 AM)JayRothschild Wrote: 2. You do not know how the system works (which is why you're poor). See: https://culturewhiz.org/forum/topic/how-...mies-works

Bitcoin is likely making a lot of people rich, in spite of their not knowing nuttin.

(06-28-2019, 07:59 AM)JayRothschild Wrote: The reason we have a currency is the same reason we have a government – to create, protect, and develop a society within our national borders. Countries desire to develop and improve their quality of life and the currency is their primary tool to do so.

Bitcoin is not inherently anti-government, even though it seems likely an instrument that is going to inspire governments and governmental actors to be more honest in how they are treating money, money systems and other systems of value that should be in the public sphere.

(06-28-2019, 07:59 AM)JayRothschild Wrote: The U.S. doesn’t actually “borrow” dollars from China (or anyone else). Countries save the currencies of nations that buy their goods. China saves dollars (because it sells more to the U.S. than the U.S) and then uses US dollars as collateral to make more money. Currency-issuing nations can’t “borrow” the currency they, alone, create. What we call the “National Debt” is not a debt in any normal sense; government bonds are there for savers, not as a form of government borrowing.

Bitcoin is borderless and will inspire honest dealings within governments and between governments.

(06-28-2019, 07:59 AM)JayRothschild Wrote: If Argentina borrows U.S. dollars, it has a real debt since it doesn’t issue U.S. dollars. But if China saves dollars gained from trade in U.S. Treasury bonds, what does the U.S. really owe China that it can’t “pay” using a computer? No amount of prior government deficits or future government promises to retirees or medical patients can prevent the U.S. government from being able to make every single payment that comes due in U.S. dollars. A nation that issues its own currency can never go bankrupt or be unable to pay its bills, as long as those bills are due in the money they create. That includes promises to bond holders to pay interest, promises to retirees to pay them a decent income in retirement, or promises to veterans or the general public to pay for their medical care. The availability of the real resources that can be obtained with the national currency is where limits lie.

Bitcoin is borderless and will inspire honest dealings within governments and between governments.

(06-28-2019, 07:59 AM)JayRothschild Wrote: Summary: You're telling me countries are going to give up their currency for some shit like bitcoin? You have NO idea what you're talking about at ALL. If anything, countries will produce their own coins and we'll just have a repeat of what we currently have.

Bitcoin is borderless and will inspire honest dealings within governments and between governments.

(06-28-2019, 07:59 AM)JayRothschild Wrote: Lol, bitcoin is controlled by cartels who are working together like central banks to stabilize the currency. 25% price correction? Ahah. They are pumping money into the system. Same thing governments do. 

Seems that you are living in a fantasy with that little talking point.

(06-28-2019, 07:59 AM)JayRothschild Wrote: The Chinese renminbi fell to 6.9342 to the U.S. dollar a few months ago, a fall of 8.77% this year alone. With U.S. tariffs at 10% on $200 billion in Chinese imports, the falling currency almost wipes out the effect of the price increase on Chinese exporters. As the renminbi gets close to the psychologically important 7.0 to the U.S. dollar mark, the question is whether or not Chinese authorities will allow the currency to depreciate that far. While such a decline helps exporters, it could trigger currency outflows from China (bitcoin) as businesses seek to stabilize their assets. But foreign currency analysts at Deutsche Bank said that concern over outflows had diminished (SOLD MY BITCOIN A FEW WEEKS AGO). As the trade war escalates, the Chinese central bank can either sell down foreign exchange reserves or raise interest rates or both, but that could have serious economic consequences at home.

Bitcoin is borderless and will inspire honest dealings within governments and between governments.

(06-28-2019, 07:59 AM)JayRothschild Wrote: And as I said before: China is going down because their energy demands are so high that they will be paying the USA for oil and gas for the next few decades, which means the USA keeps their top dog status until oil runs out in twenty to thirty years. Large populations have a propensity to demand the energy they can't live without, so I guess that isn't too much speculation. Luckily, solar efficiency has already created enough alternative energy sources to be reasonably replacement and is only getting better, e.g. solarcity's 22percent efficient cells with 30-40percent more energy per panel news yesterday. So no real doom scenarios for the future.

Bitcoin is borderless and will inspire honest dealings within governments and between governments.

(06-28-2019, 07:59 AM)JayRothschild Wrote: Thanks for playing guys. Maybe next time you'll have a chance lol

You can bet and allocate your investments however you want. You can choose zero bitcoins (which seems a bit short sighted) or 1% to 10% allocation of bitcoin which seems reasonable or some higher amount.. which also might be taking too much risk. Individual guys have their own abilities to choose their level of investment into bitcoin.
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#30
(06-28-2019, 08:48 PM)JayRothschild Wrote: Lol, you're clearly retarded and technologically illiterate. Which is why you don't understand bitcoin

"I think that the essence of the matter remains that bitcoin's network is open source and it will be growing with the passage of time."

As I said before, I spent 6 years digging into all formal programming methods, math set theory to db theory to CS languages to cpu architectures.

Ok. So you are smarter than everyone here, and you don't own any bitcoin because you know something that we don't know. Fine. Fine. So now you want to edumacate us about what you know in order to enlighten us about bitcoin?

Bitcoin is more than just solving programming puzzles.

There are networking effects too. Are you familiar with the concept of s-curve adoption? Yes. I forgot, you know everything... Of course, you are familiar, but you still don't own any bitcoin because it's going down, supposedly.

Right... Rolleyes Rolleyes Rolleyes



(06-28-2019, 08:48 PM)JayRothschild Wrote: And just like I fucking said:  Everytime, it was always the same blindness. People start programming and they don't anticipate or generalize or even rationalize the architecture of the system to all anything dynamic and worse it is never checked for dynamic consistency... leading to a trapped "format" or "version" of data and protocols and lots of flaws.

I believe some of the smartest people in the world, including programmers and cypherpunks are working on bitcoin.

Yes, of course, there are people who know other things, but still, they have a lot of smart folks on their team, and part of the philosophy involves reviewing the work of others and also conservative releases of changes to the software.

(06-28-2019, 08:48 PM)JayRothschild Wrote: Geez, just shut the fuck up already. You don't know what you're talking about at all.

You are the one clogging this thread with nonsense and off-topicness. I am sure most guys here would prefer to not have to sort through you bullshit. Most guys reading this thread are interested in bitcoin, not your phoney baloney non-substantiated "bitcoin is dead" assertions.

(06-28-2019, 08:48 PM)JayRothschild ' Wrote: You didn't address any of the tech problems just saying it's "open source" like that is going to solve all the technical problems LOLLOLL.

I don't need to address any of your assertions of what are supposed problems in bitcoin... If you want to convince people, then provide the evidence. People are still buying bitcoin, and there is no need to address your nonsense.

Of course, closed source and centralized is going to be more efficient, but bitcoin is not that. Sound money is based on unchangeable code rather than having an ability’s to change bitcoin to the whims of supposedly smart people like you who want to point out supposed problems.

If you do not like bitcoin, then don't buy any.. and stop bothering us here... Go save the world, somewhere else.



(06-28-2019, 08:48 PM)JayRothschild Wrote: Again, in order for Bitcoin to be a real currency, it needs several things:

Bitcoin already is what it is, and it is not strictly currency, as you are trying to peg it as if it were only one thing. Bitcoin does not need anything and it is not broken. Either you choose to use it or you don't. If you don't believe in it or you have no use case for it, then don't buy it. Bitcoin gives no shits about whether you approve it or not.

(06-28-2019, 08:48 PM)JayRothschild Wrote: a) easy and frictionless trading between people

Already exists.
(06-28-2019, 08:48 PM)JayRothschild Wrote: b) to be widely accepted as legal tender for all debts, public and private

Might happen some day, but does not need that in order to still be useful to people. Look at the price and you will see that people are interested in bitcoin.

(06-28-2019, 08:48 PM)JayRothschild Wrote: c) a stable value that does not fluctuate (otherwise it’s impossible to set prices)

Might happen after bitcoin goes up another 100x or 1000x...

Bitcoin is in an s-curve exponential adoption phase, currently, so might not exactly stablize for a while. You can invest into bitcoin if you like and you will experience a decently sized asymmetrical expectation about profit returns. No guarantees, of course.

(06-28-2019, 08:48 PM)JayRothschild Wrote: Bitcoin has none of these things, and even safely storing it is difficult (see Mt. Gox, Bitfinex, and the various wallets and exchanges that have been hacked).

Those are third party wallets, you dipshit. Actually, the example you provided is just giving your bitcoin to a third party, so maybe you need to study a bit more about bitcoin's actual security.

(06-28-2019, 08:48 PM)JayRothschild Wrote: The second point is also critical: Bitcoin is only valuable if it truly becomes a critical world currency.

Bitcoin is valuable right now.

(06-28-2019, 08:48 PM)JayRothschild Wrote: In other words, if you truly need it to buy stuff, and thus you need to buy coins from some other person in order to conduct important bits of world commerce that you can’t do any other way.

Bitcoin is pretty valuable if I want to move millions of dollars across the world without asking for permission. And, other use cases as well that have to do with privately storing wealth.

(06-28-2019, 08:48 PM)JayRothschild Wrote: Right now, the only people driving up the price are other speculators.
That's your baseless theory.

(06-28-2019, 08:48 PM)JayRothschild Wrote: The bitcoin price isn’t rising because people are buying the coins to conduct real business.
That's your baseless theory.

(06-28-2019, 08:48 PM)JayRothschild Wrote: It’s rising because people are buying it up, hoping someone else will buy it at an even higher price later.

Nonsense.

(06-28-2019, 08:48 PM)JayRothschild Wrote: It’s only valuable when you cash it out to a real currency again, like the US dollar, and use it to buy something useful like a nice house or a business.
fair enough... bitcoin is very liquid, so I can exchange it for dollars or I can exchange it for some goods or services. Some of my coins I bought for $200 in 2015, now today, if I cash them in, I can get more than $12k for them. That does not seem to be worthless to me. The same money that was $200 is now worth more than 60x more. Sounds like a sham? How could it be? I can get the money in my bank within an hour, just depending on my avenue of liquidation.

(06-28-2019, 08:48 PM)JayRothschild Wrote: When the supply of foolish speculators dries up, the value evaporates – often very quickly.

sure, in theory. Let's see how it plays out. You keep $1,200 in dollars, and I will keep .1BTC, let's see how the values play out in 5 years - not that I have to lock up my value.. I can move in and out, if I want. Of course, when the price recently went up a lot, then there is a bit of difficulty to expect that it might not go down first.

I can also compare the 1 bitcoin that I bought in 2015, and I can say that I am feeling pretty comfortable with the price at $12,000, and even if the price falls to $5,000, I still feel pretty good about my investment because I had a plan and I kept up with that plan over many years.. and the plan is paying off decently, inspite of your naysaying and poo pooing the whole thing.

(06-28-2019, 08:48 PM)JayRothschild Wrote: "a fee market has developed in order to prioritize transactions."

LOLLOLOLL.  Just like I said before: Any "currency" not tied directly to either some unit of energy or time-work unit or some basis of exchange that is universally in demand is and always will be a bankers scheme/Ponzi scheme.

You really like to go on a tangent. What I am saying is that if you want to send your funds quickly then you might want to pay more fees to get that assurance, and if you are sending millions of dollars of transactions, you might not mind spending $100 on fees. The fees vary depending on traffic on the network.

(06-28-2019, 08:48 PM)JayRothschild Wrote: Your posts are clearly self-serving hype, obfuscation and bullshit. Save your BS for someone who doesn't have an 180IQ

Good day.

Probably you are in this thread to just clutter the topic with your random stream of consciousness and resorting to personal attacks and attempts to employ real world status, if it were even relevant... so I don't really see how you are providing value or insight, exactly.

Guys can do what they want in terms of figuring out their BTC investment approach. If they want to talk about investing in bitcoin, then let's talk. If they want to put out bullshit talking points like you do, then that just seems to be a BIG ASS major distraction, full of confusion that you seem to have purposefully created.
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#31
Just IL this troll already like I did.

Back over 12k again yay.
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#32
(06-28-2019, 11:38 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: Just IL this troll already like I did.

Back over 12k again yay.

The trade volume is certainly up in recent days, and that is indicating a bit of a battle in this $10k to $14k arena.

Sure we could get caught here for a while, but $10k to $14k is surely a BIG price range... so could take a bit of time to figure out which way the price is going and the extent to which buying support is able to catch up and to keep the price above $10k.  

Yesterday, I was fairly confident that prices were going to break below $10k but after another 24 hours of trading and a bit of ongoing disagreement and perhaps unwillingness to break below $10k very easily, I am starting to have second thoughts regarding why I was thinking that $10k was going to be fairly easy to break below.. and now, not looking so easy... at least for the time being.  Let's see how the rest of the weekend plays out.

By the way, it looks like this week's candle will have to close above about $10,900 in order for the weekly candle to close in the green, which surely seems doable at the moment, as I type, with the price still bouncing quite a bit above and below $12k...and $11,750 as I type.   The weekly candle closes in about 41 hours (again from the time that I am typing this).
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#33
Our BTC price consolidation of the past few days in the $11k to $12,500 range seems to be bringing some interesting stacking up of the coins.

Accordingly, I just glanced at the Bitstamp order book, and I noticed that the buy orders have a fairly high level of thinness and while the sell orders seem to be stacking up in a decently high level of thickness.

In other words, there seem to be way more sell orders stacking up than buy orders, which I have frequently noticed to be a misleading indicator.  Normally, people would conclude that the BTC price must be going to go down because so many sell orders are stacking up; however, frequently the opposite occurs.

Of course, I am not really changing my own behavior, but I still remain curious to watch and see what happens this time around.. Is the BTC price going to go up or down from here?  Even though a few days ago, I was quite convinced that the BTC price was going to go further down and to break below $10k and even skeptical that $9k was going to be safe.. and whether $7,500 to $8,500 might be a potentially reasonable target range for buying.  But, now the percentages for down seem to be getting lower and lower and lower, which means the same thing as the percentages for UP are going up.  Go figure!!!  Big Grin
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#34
If BTC goes down to <10.5k I think I'd buy back in. Seems stuck at 11k though.
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#35
(06-30-2019, 06:14 PM)SpecialEd Wrote: If BTC goes down to <10.5k I think I'd buy back in. Seems stuck at 11k though.

Yeah?  But how much you buying back in? Don't tell me that you are trading your whole stash hoping to increase it that way?

There have been a lot of folks selling too much and too early all the way up from $4,200, and regretting that they sold too much and waiting for the price to go down... 

Now, in this circumstance, if you happen to have sold at a higher price than the current price, then at least you are currently on the right side of the trade, which ca is not go sour if you try to play too BIG while trying to figure out which way it is going to go.

By the way, the price earlier today had dipped down to $10,933, which ultimately is not much different than $10,500 - yet devil is in the details, and if you are trading somewhere between 1% and 10% of your stash, then your sale might be serving as a kind of hedge, versus trading a much larger portion - when bitcoin seems to be a asymmetric trade to the upside, and she has been punishing a lot of folks in recent months, especially those selling too much too early and those shorting her.
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#36
I do always like when this monthly chart comes out, and recent months have been quite green

https://imgur.com/DZz2PvT


[Image: DZz2PvT.png]
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#37
By buy back in, I meant buy MORE. I never sell more than 10% of my holdings as I'm very bullish on the long term value. But there are short term fluctuations which are profitable to play on.

I also get a sizeable percentage of my income in btc (albeit denominated in USD) so the temporary ups and downs don't really trouble me too much. For me it's a currency more than an investment.
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#38
(07-01-2019, 07:45 AM)SpecialEd Wrote: By buy back in, I meant buy MORE. I never sell more than 10% of my holdings as I'm very bullish on the long term value. But there are short term fluctuations which are profitable to play on.

I also get a sizeable percentage of my income in btc (albeit denominated in USD) so the temporary ups and downs don't really trouble me too much. For me it's a currency more than an investment.

O.k.  That sounds reasonable.  Mostly, I don't get any income or payment in BTC, except every once in a blue moon, but I have some history when I did receive some income/payments in BTC, which would cause me to sell more than I otherwise would have at certain price points, but either way I would hedge with my BTC stash to kind of keep in mind that my percentage allocations in BTC as compared to dollars were staying in a certain range and also that my dollars cashflow would be covered for a certain number of months into the future.

For many years, I have also systematically overinvested a little bit into BTC in order that I would feel comfortable selling small amounts of BTC on the way up, and even in the bull run in late 2017, the most that I had ever sold /or allocated in the dollar direction was to have my ratios to be about 88%/12% BTC/dollars (that is within my the funds that I had already allocated to BTC).  Of course, I have other investments, too... and I suppose there could be times in which a guy might feel that the BTC price is overexuberant or that the overall allocation towards BTC has become too risky based on how much the BTC price has gone up and caused overall wealth to be way too highly allocated towards BTC.  I will play around a little bit with my allocations, perhaps attempting to sell a bit more BTC on heights and buy back on dips, but that playing around is usually only small percentages overall.

Anyhow, looks like the BTC price is starting to meander into your target buying range, so yeah might not hurt to start buying.  Furthermore, it also looks like we might be giving a decently sized test to $10k in the coming days.  I never really know, but it is kind of looking like the current BTC price is coming sufficiently close to the $10k range, and therefore, there is going to be an increased incentive for bearwhales to attempt to dump some BTC and to test $10k.  Pretty much I have been buying back since lower $12ks so my strategy is not really changing, just continuing to buy back and let's see how far down this might go and/or if $10k will stand.  

I probably won't start to get too anxious until we reach the $7.5k arena, if such were to happen, then I have to have to start making plans to restructure my buy back orders down the priceline... so then I would have decently sized amount of money to cover quite a ways down, just in case.
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#39
Here's a nice little tweet that gives average daily BTC return percentages for each of the years going back to 2010.. Pretty high daily average return percentages overall, even though 2014 and 2018 were negative average daily return years.

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1145681113500782598

Bitcoin average DAILY value change during:
2010: +0.82%
2011: +0.76%
2012: +0.26%
2013: +1.11%
2014: -0.25%
2015: +0.09%
2016: +0.22%
2017: +0.78%
2018: -0.33%
2019 YTD: +0.58%
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#40
Not looking good
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