The Stock Market, Investments, and Investing Thread
(06-02-2019, 09:12 PM)coffeedrinker Wrote: I have only been investing for 3 years but for me, passive investing has had the best reward to effort ratio.

This is exactly why I no longer actively trade. I'd rather chill with WSJ Weekend than actually think about it every day. I'm not convinced that if I did outperform, that it'd be by enough to justify the stress.

I do have some buy-and-hold "future technology" investments in my taxable accounts that I grab when I see a deal, and the exit strategy for those is probably for Lockheed to buy them out and turn them into space-based superweapons or something equally ridiculous. For that kind of speculation, I like things that have obvious "dual use" applications, both guns and butter, like EKSO. If I lose, I have a nice tax write-off against my personal income, and if I win and take a capital gains hit in some future year, I'll wipe my tears with the money.

Other than that, I have all my tax-sheltered long-term money in a low-fee four fund portfolio: bonds, total U.S., total developed international, and total emerging international. My only major market timing hypothesis is that U.S. returns vs. ROW returns are very cyclical, and that we've had a long cycle of high U.S. returns, so a heavier international allocation is a reasonable choice. I do occassionally make large defensive adjustments when there's a very sudden and very obvious risk, I went from 20% to 60% bonds in September 2018 and turned out to be right. I could have just as easily been wrong and missed out on some gains, but I was glad I did it and moved back to my regular AA immediately after the New Year once everybody's 2018 tax-positioning would be off the books.

Otherwise, the single most important thing is to keep stacking cash. Time in the market always beats timing the market.

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RE: The Stock Market, Investments, and Investing Thread - by Jetset - 06-03-2019, 01:19 PM

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