The Stock Market, Investments, and Investing Thread
(09-16-2020, 02:05 PM)Kentemo Wrote:
(09-14-2020, 10:52 AM)OldSojer Wrote: It's not that tough to time the market.   When price/earnings ratios get below 10 in strong businesses, when commodities drop to five or ten year lows, when an adverse but temporary event depresses share prices, you can safely bet.  You just have to have a horizon of months rather  than hours or days.

I'm happy to take a 10 or 20% return in a year.

Everything is now pointing to a plunge in the next months.  Sit on that cash

Care to explain why you think it'll plunge?
Looking to get into some tech stocks, but they've been on a crazy run lately.

Three things

1.  So many stocks are wildly overvalued relative to revenue.  People buying things like NKLA, TSLA bidding them to insane valuations.  NKLA got savaged, called a fraud by Hindenburg Research and there are still buyers.  You're telling me Tesla is worth more than Toyota?  That Daimler-Benz won't produce quality electric vehicles?  Snowflake IPO yesterday - it's now worth more than GM or Dell, and people don't even know what it does- "data storage?"  Peloton, who are their customers and what's their prospect for growth beyond a small segment of upper-middle class Americans to justify their valuation?

2.  The Federal Reserve can keep pumping money but eventually the cost of coronavirus will catch up with the real economy as we see bankruptcies on Main Street and depressed demand.

3.  The election is looking to be a shitshow.  Whatever your point of view is, it's easy to see that there is a good chance of chaos, violence, and a crisis destabilizing the USA in scary ways.  That would cause a market plunge.  Americans are used to a stable constitutional order

All three factors are operating simultaneously.  The countervailing possibilities are a safe and effective vaccine soon, and a blowout election which leaves no possibility for doubt and dispute the day after on Nov. 4. 

Seems prudent to have a lot in cash or equivalents.
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RE: The Stock Market, Investments, and Investing Thread - by OldSojer - 09-17-2020, 10:57 AM

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