The Stock Market, Investments, and Investing Thread
(11-02-2019, 04:54 PM)billydingdong Wrote:
JayJuanGee Wrote:[edited out]


I suppose it depends on what stage of life you are. The later middle age folk in my family have gravitated toward bonds and fixed income. Can't say I blame them.

At that point, when I reallocated towards bonds and fixed income, I was doing it mostly based on speculation that the odds for down were greater than the odds for up, rather than any age-based attempt to preserve retirement income. Tentatively, I am expecting to begin drawing on my various investments in a kind of attempt to stop building any principle and to stop folding interest into those investments as a kind of retirement supplement and also living it up more in terms of increasing my own income from those sources in the next 5 years or so. Mostly I am thinking that I will just let my various 401k related index funds continue to ride at whatever levels they are at, and mostly I would just be planning to draw my additional income from the bitcoin portion of my holdings when I start to do that. I might start earlier, but at this point, my tentative timeline is around 5 years from now to make such increase of income towards myself from otherwise "long term" investments.

(11-02-2019, 04:54 PM)billydingdong Wrote: [3]
Been around the block on this topic! Hoping Bitcoin keeps going up because it drags my other crypto holdings with it, but as you know, I'm quite concerned about it long-term. Happy for those that have profited from it (including yours truly back in '17) and can easily imagine that Bitcoin gains over the last 3+ years would soothe any regrets of missing out on this stage of the stock market bull run.  Wink  

Well, surely an uncertainty aspect of hedges seems to be that none of us can be really sure about how the various assets that we choose to categorize as hedges are going to work out in terms of if they end up correlating to our other investments or if they don't, and of course, we kind of anticipate that all of them are not going to go up together, but we also hope that all of our chosen hedges do not go down together either, in the event that happens, so in that regard, each of us makes our bed a bit differently, and to some extent we have to lay in the bed that we had made - since we are not going to be able to go back and make it over 5 years down the road, or however long it takes to figure out if we had made reasonable choices in our allocations.

I have gotten a little more psychologically cocky (even if it is not any kind of sure bet) that I am going to have pretty decent odds of cashing out incremental portions of my BTC holdings whenever I want and based on need rather than based on price, including now if I want to because my cashing out threshold it $5k or higher. In other words, tentatively, I don't want to be cashing out any BTC at sub -$5k prices, if I am able to avoid it (which would of course exclude extreme emergency circumstances that might cause me to reconsider that sub $5k threshold).

(11-02-2019, 04:54 PM)billydingdong Wrote: [4]

No sir! I was mostly equities + cash when I started in 2008, but settled on what I call my 'Stair Case Strategy' about 2 years ago. I know I've mentioned it before, but here it is again:

35% total market equities
25% L/T treasuries
20% Cash Equivalents + S/T Treasuries
15% Gold
5% REITs.

I plan to flip the L/T treasury allocations for cash equivalents next month at rebalance time, and will stick to that allocation for the foreseeable future (at least 5 years).

I know. I might not always recall your allocation, and then sometimes the question might concern also some slightly different matter, including that I was a little stimulated by what appeared to be a bit of an excited utterance from you regarding our recently (including ATH) great performing equities. So, I was kind of curious if you might have been motivated to change your allocations or maybe to perform your allocations on a different timeframe than what you might have otherwise been planning.

Surely, I am not very rigid regarding my own reallocation strategies, and at least in regards to my total overall investment package, I consider my about mid-2016 reallocation to have been the last time that I engaged in any kind of overall and meaningful reallocation. Before mid-2016, I probably would engage in reallocation more frequently, maybe every one or two years, but I still kind of would play it by ear to some extent. I recall at one point in 2004 or so, I had looked at some of my investments, and I was kicking myself because I had thought that I had allocated both the internal amounts differently and also to the way that new money went into it differently, so I had been way too allocated in gov bonds and fixed bonds in that particular fund-set, so I had tried to pay a little bit better, yet I understand that sometimes each of us should really engage in a decent amount of reflection on our various investments from time to time and really consider if that is how we want them to be allocated. Of course, after the fact, it is much easier to say, I should have done x or y or z or to say, I am sure glad that I did a, b or c, but whatever ended up happening might have been more a product of luck rather than really considering if our allocations are invested in accordance with our individual circumstances: beliefs, cashflow, timeline, risk tolerance, etc.

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RE: The Stock Market, Investments, and Investing Thread - by JayJuanGee - 11-02-2019, 06:06 PM

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