The Stock Market, Investments, and Investing Thread
JayJuanGee Wrote:
(11-01-2019, 10:20 PM)billydingdong Wrote: Another day, another all-time-high for the S + P 500 and the Nasdaq. Prices are said to have gone up based on strong 3Q earnings and jobs report.

Portfolio still doing fantastic this year.

[1]It's a bubble dude!!!!!!!!!!

hahahahaha   I am just joking, because as you likely realize, billydingdong, I don't know much of anything regarding various market's or their short term direction, and of course, I have some stake in various funds that are either related to a 401k that i have and some other investments that are vary similar, but tend to be various kinds of index funds.

In about mid-2016, I was thinking the same thing...  "it's a bubble", and I ended up reallocating in a way that removed some of the value from my stock investments and placed that value into safer and more stable areas, such as bonds.  That reallocation has not worked out too well for me over the past 3.5 years or so, because the stock portion has continued to go up and up and up, and the bonds largely had remained flat (safe but flat... hahahahahaha).  

Now my BTC investment, that is a totally different story.  You can imagine how that has done since mid 2016, can't you?  If not, it pretty much out performed and dwarft any stagnant aspect of my mid-2016 reallocation in such a way that I hardly gave any shits about some of the performance that I did not get in the stock market.  In other words, my stock market allocation does remain pretty similar as it had been after my 2016 reallocation, and I can generally see the representation in the various funds that are contained in my 401k options and how they are performing from year to year.  They are at all time high levels, like you said, but for some reason, I still have some difficulties getting very excited about them, and just hope that they kind of continue to hold their own in the coming years.  We will see, won't we? [4] Are you considering any reallocation away from stocks based on recently past great performance, or are you just letting your current allocations ride, for now?


Believe me, I scratch my head as the markets continue to climb and new all time highs are reached. I've had a similar "it'll drop big any day now" hunch since around 2016 as well....but the market smirks, shakes its head, wags its finger, and marches upward.

I don't particulary love being in the market (although I love the gainz), but being out of the market and staying in cash, at least historically, has a way of rendering that decision foolish.


I suppose it depends on what stage of life you are. The later middle age folk in my family have gravitated toward bonds and fixed income. Can't say I blame them.


Been around the block on this topic! Hoping Bitcoin keeps going up because it drags my other crypto holdings with it, but as you know, I'm quite concerned about it long-term. Happy for those that have profited from it (including yours truly back in '17) and can easily imagine that Bitcoin gains over the last 3+ years would soothe any regrets of missing out on this stage of the stock market bull run.  Wink


No sir! I was mostly equities + cash when I started in 2008, but settled on what I call my 'Staircase Strategy' about 2 years ago. Since the 70's it has done reasonably well (~5% real returns) with exceedingly low volatility (13% drawdown, 3 year recovery).
I know I've mentioned the allocation before, but here it is again:

35% total US market equities
25% L/T US treasuries
20% Cash Equivalents + S/T Treasuries
15% Gold
5% US REITs.

I plan to flip the L/T treasury allocations for cash equivalents next month at rebalance time, and will stick to that allocation for the foreseeable future (at least 5 years).

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RE: The Stock Market, Investments, and Investing Thread - by billydingdong - 11-02-2019, 04:54 PM

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