The Stock Market, Investments, and Investing Thread
#37
(08-06-2019, 08:56 PM)billydingdong Wrote: Market took a huge shit yesterday (Aug 5) with the S+P 500 plunging 3% on news of Trump tariffs and then China's currency devaluation.

It's recovered about 1/2 of that today, but based on what I'm reading and listening to, the consensus seems to be that we're on the precipice of a bear market. The Federal Reserve also cut the fed funds rate about a week ago, the first time since 2008. Gold and treasuries, traditional safe haven assets, have been going up.

What are y'all's strategies? Anyone revising plans with the changing economic winds?

Mine is the same as always:

35% US equities
25% Long-term US treasuries
20% cash
15% gold
5% REITs

And when, anything spikes or plunges 1/3 of it's value, I'll rebalance.

Regarding the first part of your question regarding reason for the partial market rebound, of course, many times a market overreacts to some news or events such as the negative performance that seemed to have been caused by the little spat between china and the usa, including the Fed's last week's announcement to reduce interest rates, and then none of us is able to determine if the market correction is really going to be a longer term play or if it is just a fake out.

Your strategy and your diversification seems decent, and maybe I am a bit more cocky on the inside because the last week has been good for me.  I mean the stock market went down 7% or 8%, but my BTC holdings went up a bit more than double that amount.  

Where is your crypto (ETH assertedly from another of your posts) in your overall holdings, billydingdong?  Is ETH/Crypto less than 1% of your total holdings or is considered to be part of your cash allocation?

I don't want to necessarily get into too many details of my total holdings, but maybe for the purposes of this post, my current overall distribution would be something like:

20% income generating physical property

20% 401k that has some diversification within it but largely a variety of index funds that are correlated to stock and fiat performance.

56% bitcoin fund that is sub diversified currently about 95.5% bitcoin, 3.5% cash, 1% variety of shitcoins

4% variety of other property that is not very liquid (most of which was part of an old business that so far I have chosen just to keep in storage, but might liquidate it at some point).

Before 2014, I used to reallocate the 401k from time to time, but I have not been adding to that since 2014. Since late 2013, my BTC has served as a kind of reallocation of some of my total holdings into something that I thought might not be correlated to the dollar (kind of a gold substitute), but I have not really felt any need to reallocate since, but just to attempt to manage my BTC.  

Of course, many guys might consider my BTC part to be a bit reckless,  but in about 2016, I had come to a tentative conclusion that I don't really need to engage in any more reallocating of my BTC than is contained within the fund and just how it frees off the pressures from my other assets that are largely sufficient to maintain me, if need be.  

In other words, between 2013 and 2015, I had a goal to build up the BTC portion of my portfolio to around 10%, but the ongoing suppression of the BTC market during that time caused me to allocate close to 14%, which ended up being an o.k. decision, but admittedly it was a bit beyond my original intention, yet its relative value mostly just grew from late 2015 to its current status.  

From time to time, I do come back to reflect on whether I need to consider any need to reallocate my BTC, but I don't really see any need to reallocate it or even to really react too much to current market conditions (or even BTC's 85% correction in 2018) because there may be some non-correlation going on, or even anti-correlation... It surely is not clear with any seemingly new asset class, and surely time will tell, so in that regard, I consider that the BTC portion will probably hold its own for a large number of years into the future.
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RE: The Stock Market, Investments, and Investing Thread - by JayJuanGee - 08-07-2019, 12:18 AM

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