The Stock Market, Investments, and Investing Thread
(10-08-2020, 03:27 AM)El Dandy Wrote: Beginner "buy and forget" investor here. I have a 9-to-5 job now, but at some point I'd like to pivot to something more remote, and Day Trading is an option (risky, I know).

Dunno if this chick has been mentioned here, but I find her agreeable and honest, among a sea of oil snake salesmen (forex trading pseudo-coaches alike).





Her video of "A day in the life of a millenial trader" is good, too. Also, she has one where she trades live with her siblings, lol
I actively traded for many years and the although I actually finished ahead unlike most traders, the effort was not worth the payoff.   Far better to just swing trade the major indexes or buy and hold them.  You'll do MUCH better going that route.
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Hope everyone sold off a couple of weeks ago and are now sitting on cash, ready to buy.
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Whatever else happens, I'm pulling further back again. I'd gotten close to 33% bonds from new contributions, all my main accounts are 60% bonds as of today and will gradually buy back in with new contributions, or all at once if it takes a dump.

This Gamestop bullshit has all the trappings of a peak psychosis in the market and I feel like we're one piece of really bad news away from the wheels coming off. Been expecting that this can't be sustained but it's like a parody now.
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(01-25-2021, 06:05 PM)Jetset Wrote: Whatever else happens, I'm pulling further back again. I'd gotten close to 33% bonds from new contributions, all my main accounts are 60% bonds as of today and will gradually buy back in with new contributions, or all at once if it takes a dump.

This Gamestop bullshit has all the trappings of a peak psychosis in the market and I feel like we're one piece of really bad news away from the wheels coming off. Been expecting that this can't be sustained but it's like a parody now.

This type activity has been seen before in the late Nineties. Dot.com stocks were the hype back then. However, the mania lasted for awhile. Meaning I think this market gets to valuations even eclipsing the late nineties. The Nasdaq tripled in value from the low in late 1998 to the peak a few years later. Fast forward to today and the Nasdaq has only doubled from the lows from last March. This Market will absolutely go much, much higher. This is the mother of all bubbles fueled by the fed and the US government, thus this bubble will go beyond explanation. 

Bonds? That's not a smart investment, as real rates are rising and probably going much higher this year. I'd not want to be in Bonds or Gold atleast the first half of this year.

Bottomline- This is the easiest and the best time to put your money in the stock market as it's in it's final gasp higher. we are entering the Euphoria stage.
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(01-25-2021, 11:09 PM)akms76 Wrote: Bottomline- This is the easiest and the best time to put your money in the stock market as it's in it's final gasp higher. we are entering the Euphoria stage.

Under normal circumstances, I'd agree with you, but I see additional risk here in the pandemic and the political situation. There's absolutely a lot of pent-up demand, but I am extremely leery of new bad news this year.

Either approach is valid and has a narrative, but I made so much money in single-stock plays in the initial recovery and then in riding this last run-up that I'm more interested in protecting what I have for now. The bonds are a short-term fund (SWSBX) to minimize interest rate exposure, and I don't anticipate holding them for long. Will re-evaluate that in the autumn.

All of the calls I sold on single stocks in my taxable account at the new year are likely going to trigger in March, as well, so I'll probably hold cash there. Agree that gold is not a move right now at all, and think there's considerable downside risk if things stay on a positive track.
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(01-25-2021, 11:24 PM)Jetset Wrote:
(01-25-2021, 11:09 PM)akms76 Wrote: Bottomline- This is the easiest and the best time to put your money in the stock market as it's in it's final gasp higher. we are entering the Euphoria stage.

Under normal circumstances, I'd agree with you, but I see additional risk here in the pandemic and the political situation. There's absolutely a lot of pent-up demand, but I am extremely leery of new bad news this year.

Either approach is valid and has a narrative, but I made so much money in single-stock plays in the initial recovery and then in riding this last run-up that I'm more interested in protecting what I have for now. The bonds are a short-term fund (SWSBX) to minimize interest rate exposure, and I don't anticipate holding them for long. Will re-evaluate that in the autumn.

All of the calls I sold on single stocks in my taxable account at the new year are likely going to trigger in March, as well, so I'll probably hold cash there. Agree that gold is not a move right now at all, and think there's considerable downside risk if things stay on a positive track.

"but I see additional risk here in the pandemic and the political situation. There's absolutely a lot of pent-up demand, but I am extremely leery of new bad news this year" This is exactly why this epic bull market continues. So much fear out there regarding the pandemic/economy it's very telling. Of course the Stock market is NOT the economy. Euphoria is where we are at currently but it really has only just begun, it usual lasts for quite some time, this is my point. 

markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.

I understand your stance though. A nice profit is a nice profit, that's all that matters and protecting it makes sense. Can't fault that. 
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(10-08-2020, 08:25 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: I actively traded for many years and the although I actually finished ahead unlike most traders, the effort was not worth the payoff.   Far better to just swing trade the major indexes or buy and hold them.  You'll do MUCH better going that route.

Can you explain this a bit more?

What is the prep time needed to pick, make plays and close positions with swing trading indexes?

How much capital is needed to make a modest amount starting out?

What is the average amount made in one day?
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(01-26-2021, 05:46 AM)Dash Wrote:
(10-08-2020, 08:25 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: I actively traded for many years and the although I actually finished ahead unlike most traders, the effort was not worth the payoff.   Far better to just swing trade the major indexes or buy and hold them.  You'll do MUCH better going that route.

Can you explain this a bit more?

What is the prep time needed to pick, make plays and close positions with swing trading indexes?

How much capital is needed to make a modest amount starting out?

What is the average amount made in one day?
One of the benefits of working in Europe was going home after work and actively trading until about midnight.  I did that for years and took modest profits when I could.  My tax preparer once remarked that I was his only client who had capital gains that particular bear market year.  

In retrospect, had I simply held my index funds instead of trading them periodically to lock in gains, I would likely be thrice as wealthy today.  

Keep in mind that there is the rule of 90 that applies to day trading.  90% of traders lose 90% of their money in the first 90 days.  That might be a slight exaggeration but it is accurate.  

As to your specific questions, all that depends on the individual.  I had a pretty well oiled machine involving a predetermined set of divided paying stocks to monitor and trade so it was simple for me. I did not place trades each day.  I only did to lock in gains of $100 or more. 

You won’t get rich day trading, quite the contrary.  But you will likely get rich over the long term by buying and holding S&P based index funds.  

To be clear, I no longer recommend active trading.  There is a learning curve which could wipe you out before you even get started.
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I am always surprised when I read about people day trading how they simply can not control their emotions and impulsiveness. They don't stick to their enter and exit points. Or they don't stick to all their requirements for selecting what they want to trade.
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(01-26-2021, 06:16 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:  My tax preparer once remarked that I was his only client who had capital gains that particular bear market year.  

Seriously, how can anyone believe what this guy says?

Anyways, back on topic. I wouldn't recommend trading unless you have been in the stock market for years already. Right now we are at peak euphoria where people are gambling with options when they didn't even know what they were a few months back.

If you are looking 10+ years ahead like me I would just dollar cost average into VOO and QQQ depending on your risk tolerance.

I strongly advice to stay far away from robinhood unless you are managing a small amount of money. I recommend interactive brokers if you want something more serious and/or tastyworks if you want to trade options.

Also, anyone claiming they know where the market or a certain stock is heading with 100% certainty is full of shit, there are educated guesses but anyone claiming to have a crystal ball into the future is just selling you snake oil so beware.
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ive watched quite a bit of day trading, scalping, momentum, price action etc. etc

would love to give it a go with a manageable amount.

seems most people get into trouble either

1) not managing their money properly ie position sizes
2) making moves on emotion
3) not sticking to a proven gameplan

seems like the perfect job thats not passive that you can do remotely. few hours in the morning and done for the day (or evening if you are on the other side of the world)
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I wouldn't bother unless you have actively outperformed the market for years and probably 100k minimum to trade with.
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Anybody engaged in this Wall Street Bets stuff? Not my style, but crazy things going on like with Game Stop stock (GME) yesterday.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/

I went to 50% cash before the election, too early, but continue to think this insanity can't continue.
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It used to be good but nothing of value can be found there now, it's just people gambling, I saw some people who went into gamestop yesterday and they were down 50% in an hour lmao.

We are at a moment where a lot of dumb retail money is pouring in and a lot of these people will end up blowing their account even if they start with a big win.
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(01-26-2021, 09:03 AM)Dash Wrote: ive watched quite a bit of day trading, scalping, momentum, price action etc. etc

would love to give it a go with a manageable amount.

seems most people get into trouble either

1) not managing their money properly ie position sizes
2) making moves on emotion
3) not sticking to a proven gameplan

seems like the perfect job thats not passive that you can do remotely. few hours in the morning and done for the day (or evening if you are on the other side of the world)

Daytrading is a crap shoot. There is 100% a learning curve and odds are high you'd lose everything within months, even though you might have beginners luck at first. You are better off swing trading, where intraday news wont blow your position out of the water. In all honesty though, unless it's been a passion of yours since you were young(teen years), stay away from the stock market. It's not for the faint of heart or for those that are not in control of their mind.
Cheers,
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(01-26-2021, 12:00 PM)OldSojer Wrote: Anybody engaged in this Wall Street Bets stuff?   Not my style, but crazy things going on like with Game Stop stock (GME) yesterday.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/

I went to 50% cash before the election, too early, but continue to think this insanity can't continue.

So long as you locked in some profits for yourself, then good move.  No one can time the market perfectly.  You might want to spread those proceeds between gold, crypto, and cash as you wait for a correction.
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(01-26-2021, 02:15 PM)akms76 Wrote:
(01-26-2021, 09:03 AM)Dash Wrote: ive watched quite a bit of day trading, scalping, momentum, price action etc. etc

would love to give it a go with a manageable amount.

seems most people get into trouble either

1) not managing their money properly ie position sizes
2) making moves on emotion
3) not sticking to a proven gameplan

seems like the perfect job thats not passive that you can do remotely. few hours in the morning and done for the day (or evening if you are on the other side of the world)

Daytrading is a crap shoot. There is 100% a learning curve and odds are high you'd lose everything within months, even though you might have beginners luck at first. You are better off swing trading, where intraday news wont blow your position out of the water. In all honesty though, unless it's been a passion of yours since you were young(teen years), stay away from the stock market. It's not for the faint of heart or for those that are not in control of their mind.
Cheers,

I would like to scalp the opening. Buying and selling all within seconds and minutes. 

So there wouldnt be any intraday news to blow any position. 

I am super interested in it. As, it seems like the biggest thing that gets people into trouble is losing focus and acting on emotions / tilt.

Making moves on momentum, price/action, volume, lvl 2s, new highs, pull backs etc etc

Super cool. Love watching the dude from Warrior Trading. He is a machine. (assuming he is legit)
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You are not immune to acting on emotion, and that would be the only requirement to make money if there was actually a 100% reliable proven method to be profitable trading, but there isn't. Things can work until they don't. Jumping from not dealing with stocks at all to trying to daytrade as a job is a recipe for disaster.

Most trading youtubers are full of shit btw and even when they aren't, trying to replicate them or shadow trade is a bad idea.
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(01-26-2021, 03:47 PM)Shifty Wrote: You are not immune to acting on emotion, and that would be the only requirement to make money if there was actually a 100% reliable proven method to be profitable trading, but there isn't. Things can work until they don't. Jumping from not dealing with stocks at all to trying to daytrade as a job is a recipe for disaster.  

Most trading youtubers are full of shit btw and even when they aren't, trying to replicate them or shadow trade is a bad idea.

Of course no one is immune. 

Id recommend anyone to paper trade for awhile first to test out their strategy.

Then go live with small amounts you can afford to lose. 

I wouldn't quit my day job until I was able to consistently win (with real money) and be in the green for an extended amount of time. 

Most people can't control their emotions and or manage the size of their bets/positions and go bust in quick order. 

But for the few that can develop or find a successful trading strategy and control their emotions and know how to manage their money, day trading can be a viable means of making a living.
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If you want a good dose of Schadenfreude be sure to go to a gme thread on reddit and sort comments by new once the crash comes.
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