The Stock Market, Investments, and Investing Thread
#61
(09-27-2019, 12:10 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: Day trading is a fool's game as you point out, but SWING trading has been a good way for me to shave off profits after holding weeks and months.  Take profits and buy back when the price goes back down.

I would like to hear more about your SWING trading method. Well I did try something like it before, such as find an uptrending stock and try to buy the dips and sell into strength. But in reality after buying then the uptrending stock immediately stopped uptrending and kept going down. Well that has been my luck anyway. I would like to hear your insights.
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#62
(10-01-2019, 07:23 PM)Stretch Wrote:
(09-27-2019, 12:10 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: Day trading is a fool's game as you point out, but SWING trading has been a good way for me to shave off profits after holding weeks and months.  Take profits and buy back when the price goes back down.

I would like to hear more about your SWING trading method. Well I did try something like it before, such as find an uptrending stock and try to buy the dips and sell into strength. But in reality after buying then the uptrending stock immediately stopped uptrending and kept going down. Well that has been my luck anyway. I would like to hear your insights.

I also employ a kind of swing trading method, and personally, I believe that such method works best if the underlying asset has a tendency to go up in value in the long run, which is surely not guaranteed.  So either you have to continue to hold through such negative periods and continue to buy (with the presumption that the asset is going to continue to go up), or you have picked a lemon of an asset, which you might not realize that you picked a lemon until several years of continued downward price movement that never ends up recovering.

In other words, a swing trading method is not likely to work very well if either the underlying asset is not fundamentally strong and tending to go up or if you end up getting out of the asset too early (or fail to continue to buy) when the asset ends up going up in price at a date that is much later down the road and longer than you had anticipated for such recovery.
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#63
(10-01-2019, 07:23 PM)Stretch Wrote:
(09-27-2019, 12:10 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: Day trading is a fool's game as you point out, but SWING trading has been a good way for me to shave off profits after holding weeks and months.  Take profits and buy back when the price goes back down.

I would like to hear more about your SWING trading method. Well I did try something like it before, such as find an uptrending stock and try to buy the dips and sell into strength. But in reality after buying then the uptrending stock immediately stopped uptrending and kept going down. Well that has been my luck anyway. I would like to hear your insights.

I only deal with dividend paying stocks that pay MONTHLY.  That way, if I have to hold a stock for weeks and months, I still get paid continuously.  There are many times that I have a capital loss, but accumulated dividends enable me to cash out with more than I invested.  

The best advise here would be to wait for the next bear market, then pick dividend payers like NOBL, O, VNQ, LTC, GAIN, MAIN, etc all of which have long term upward trends in the graphs.  Whatever you do, DO NOT pick the highest dividend payers which often have downward trends long term.

The best video to impart this important fact is below:



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#64
(10-02-2019, 06:37 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: I only deal with dividend paying stocks that pay MONTHLY.  That way, if I have to hold a stock for weeks and months, I still get paid continuously.  There are many times that I have a capital loss, but accumulated dividends enable me to cash out with more than I invested.

Dividend vs. Total Return is a feud that will never die, but I think it goes back to that old saying about "if experts can't agree, it's because it doesn't really matter". Dividend payers, historically, are a little bit more resilient to downturns, probably because they tend to be in more conservative industries. I have a bucket I use as a sort of "super savings" that's about 80/20 bonds/equities, and the equities are focused on qualified dividends for that reason. The tax drag is a little bit of a hit but not nearly as much as if I found some other way to generate that income at full personal income tax rates.
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#65
(10-02-2019, 09:06 PM)Jetset Wrote:
(10-02-2019, 06:37 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: I only deal with dividend paying stocks that pay MONTHLY.  That way, if I have to hold a stock for weeks and months, I still get paid continuously.  There are many times that I have a capital loss, but accumulated dividends enable me to cash out with more than I invested.

Dividend vs. Total Return is a feud that will never die, but I think it goes back to that old saying about "if experts can't agree, it's because it doesn't really matter". 
Very good point and he makes a good argument for owning BOTH.


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#66
Next week I'm going to make another investment decision. Just have to pull up my copy of "Triangle Investing" and see what I want in my portfolio.

Other alternative assets I don't think you all discussed were offshore accounts and dual passports.
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#67
(10-18-2019, 03:22 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: Next week I'm going to make another investment decision. Just have to pull up my copy of "Triangle Investing" and see what I want in my portfolio.

Other alternative assets I don't think you all discussed were offshore accounts and dual passports.

Passports and offshore accounts strike me as internationalization strategies more so than investments. The reason I say that is those things don't have any kind of exchange value or potential for appreciation.

Worthy topics nonetheless and probably deserve their own thread.

If I remember right, Triangle Investing recommends a strategy of (1) equities, (2) crypto, and (3) income generating real estate, no? I've mentioned before that heavy crypto allocation makes me flinch, but if the asset class normalizes and legitimizes this advice could be prescient.
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#68
^ +1 across the board. Triangle has three different kinds of strategies: risk on, risk neutral, and risk adverse. The authors have acknowledged crypto's risk that it could go to 0 so don't invest in what you're afraid to lose. They also mention ways of making money off the space so there's that option if you don't want to stake money in a volatile asset.

What I applied from rereading:
I put in a fairly small amount of money into bitcoin today. Yes, I'm well aware that I've stated here before that I'm iffy on crypto. My plan is I will sell my crypto once I leave Illinois because the state will tax the crap out of my earnings should it skyrocket. We are BROKE. The other alternative was put that fund into the fundrise account which generates a laughable return (3-8%). More than my prosper return but still not something that will make me rich.

In the future if recession hits I will follow WSP's advice on purchasing stocks. IMO stocks are surging in Trump's America, just need it to die down before I make a grab and let time play its compounding role in my stocks.

I already have exposure to real estate but unfortunately don't have the time or resources to actively manage real estate. I also don't want to landlock myself to Illinois.

Ohhhh just came to mind:
Due to some pretty unique circumstances I can sell bottles of water at events. You can make a 500%+ ROI on a product that costs $10. You don't have to market it, you don't have to invent anything, it's so easy to do. Doesn't this sound a lot better than some paltry 10% stock return? Just had to make a quick note.
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#69
(10-19-2019, 03:08 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: ^ +1 across the board. Triangle has three different kinds of strategies: risk on, risk neutral, and risk adverse. The authors have acknowledged crypto's risk that it could go to 0 so don't invest in what you're afraid to lose. They also mention ways of making money off the space so there's that option if you don't want to stake money in a volatile asset.

What I applied from rereading:
I put in a fairly small amount of money into bitcoin today. Yes, I'm well aware that I've stated here before that I'm iffy on crypto. My plan is I will sell my crypto once I leave Illinois because the state will tax the crap out of my earnings should it skyrocket. We are BROKE. The other alternative was put that fund into the fundrise account which generates a laughable return (3-8%). More than my prosper return but still not something that will make me rich.

In the future if recession hits I will follow WSP's advice on purchasing stocks. IMO stocks are surging in Trump's America, just need it to die down before I make a grab and let time play its compounding role in my stocks.

I already have exposure to real estate but unfortunately don't have the time or resources to actively manage real estate. I also don't want to landlock myself to Illinois.

Ohhhh just came to mind:
Due to some pretty unique circumstances I can sell bottles of water at events. You can make a 500%+ ROI on a product that costs $10. You don't have to market it, you don't have to invent anything, it's so easy to do. Doesn't this sound a lot better than some paltry 10% stock return? Just had to make a quick note.

Yeah, I feel for those in high tax states. I worked a short-term assignment in South Carolina for a year and resented that 7% of my salary went to their state tax. In Texas, we don't have state income tax but we end up getting fucked on property taxes. If reducing tax liability is important Nevada seems like a good option for domiciling — no state income tax and property taxes are low due to the taxes they levy on tourist casino winnings.

Selling water at events may be a nice low-capital side hustle (as opposed to uber); not so much an investment. If it gets you out and about and making money I suppose it could be worthwhile. Especially if you don't have something else you're building toward (i.e. highly compensated skill/expertise or some business) anything is better than sitting at home.

One other thing worth noting... earning a 10% return year-over-year is nothing to sneeze at and if you're able to achieve those kinds of returns over decades you can turn a small fortune into a decent one. At some point for many, the name of the game becomes preservation.

You are right, however, to the extent that sweating a 10% return doesn't really matter if one don't have much in the way of investments to begin with. If that's the case efforts are better spent boosting income.
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#70
^^
I was reading around in reddit to get a gauge of what people think about certain things going on in my state right now. Funny how you mentioned Texas because that's the complaint over there that property taxes fuck you guys over. All I can say is no place is perfect but if things are about to become unbearable like in my situation maybe it's time to move!

Selling water is one of those events where I can make gains NOW instead of passively sit on my hands. My stock gains will historically gain x amount per year but due to my unique situation I can go and purchase a case of water and make some gains NOW.
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#71
Another day, another all-time-high for the S + P 500 and the Nasdaq. Prices are said to have gone up based on strong 3Q earnings and jobs report.

Portfolio still doing fantastic this year.
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#72
(11-01-2019, 10:20 PM)billydingdong Wrote: Another day, another all-time-high for the S + P 500 and the Nasdaq. Prices are said to have gone up based on strong 3Q earnings and jobs report.

Portfolio still doing fantastic this year.



It's a bubble dude!!!!!!!!!!



hahahahaha   I am just joking, because as you likely realize, billydingdong, I don't know much of anything regarding various market's or their short term direction, and of course, I have some stake in various funds that are either related to a 401k that i have and some other investments that are vary similar, but tend to be various kinds of index funds.

In about mid-2016, I was thinking the same thing...  "it's a bubble", and I ended up reallocating in a way that removed some of the value from my stock investments and placed that value into safer and more stable areas, such as bonds.  That reallocation has not worked out too well for me over the past 3.5 years or so, because the stock portion has continued to go up and up and up, and the bonds largely had remained flat (safe but flat... hahahahahaha).  

Now my BTC investment, that is a totally different story.  You can imagine how that has done since mid 2016, can't you?  If not, it pretty much out performed and dwarft any stagnant aspect of my mid-2016 reallocation in such a way that I hardly gave any shits about some of the performance that I did not get in the stock market.  In other words, my stock market allocation does remain pretty similar as it had been after my 2016 reallocation, and I can generally see the representation in the various funds that are contained in my 401k options and how they are performing from year to year.  They are at all time high levels, like you said, but for some reason, I still have some difficulties getting very excited about them, and just hope that they kind of continue to hold their own in the coming years.  We will see, won't we?  Are you considering any reallocation away from stocks based on recently past great performance, or are you just letting your current allocations ride, for now?
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#73
JayJuanGee Wrote:
(11-01-2019, 10:20 PM)billydingdong Wrote: Another day, another all-time-high for the S + P 500 and the Nasdaq. Prices are said to have gone up based on strong 3Q earnings and jobs report.

Portfolio still doing fantastic this year.



[1]It's a bubble dude!!!!!!!!!!



hahahahaha   I am just joking, because as you likely realize, billydingdong, I don't know much of anything regarding various market's or their short term direction, and of course, I have some stake in various funds that are either related to a 401k that i have and some other investments that are vary similar, but tend to be various kinds of index funds.

[2]
In about mid-2016, I was thinking the same thing...  "it's a bubble", and I ended up reallocating in a way that removed some of the value from my stock investments and placed that value into safer and more stable areas, such as bonds.  That reallocation has not worked out too well for me over the past 3.5 years or so, because the stock portion has continued to go up and up and up, and the bonds largely had remained flat (safe but flat... hahahahahaha).  

[3]
Now my BTC investment, that is a totally different story.  You can imagine how that has done since mid 2016, can't you?  If not, it pretty much out performed and dwarft any stagnant aspect of my mid-2016 reallocation in such a way that I hardly gave any shits about some of the performance that I did not get in the stock market.  In other words, my stock market allocation does remain pretty similar as it had been after my 2016 reallocation, and I can generally see the representation in the various funds that are contained in my 401k options and how they are performing from year to year.  They are at all time high levels, like you said, but for some reason, I still have some difficulties getting very excited about them, and just hope that they kind of continue to hold their own in the coming years.  We will see, won't we? [4] Are you considering any reallocation away from stocks based on recently past great performance, or are you just letting your current allocations ride, for now?


[1]

Believe me, I scratch my head as the markets continue to climb and new all time highs are reached. I've had a similar "it'll drop big any day now" hunch since around 2016 as well....but the market smirks, shakes its head, wags its finger, and marches upward.

I don't particulary love being in the market (although I love the gainz), but being out of the market and staying in cash, at least historically, has a way of rendering that decision foolish.


[2]

I suppose it depends on what stage of life you are. The later middle age folk in my family have gravitated toward bonds and fixed income. Can't say I blame them.


[3]

Been around the block on this topic! Hoping Bitcoin keeps going up because it drags my other crypto holdings with it, but as you know, I'm quite concerned about it long-term. Happy for those that have profited from it (including yours truly back in '17) and can easily imagine that Bitcoin gains over the last 3+ years would soothe any regrets of missing out on this stage of the stock market bull run.  Wink

[4]

No sir! I was mostly equities + cash when I started in 2008, but settled on what I call my 'Staircase Strategy' about 2 years ago. Since the 70's it has done reasonably well (~5% real returns) with exceedingly low volatility (13% drawdown, 3 year recovery).
I know I've mentioned the allocation before, but here it is again:

35% total US market equities
25% L/T US treasuries
20% Cash Equivalents + S/T Treasuries
15% Gold
5% US REITs.

I plan to flip the L/T treasury allocations for cash equivalents next month at rebalance time, and will stick to that allocation for the foreseeable future (at least 5 years).
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#74
(11-02-2019, 04:54 PM)billydingdong Wrote:
JayJuanGee Wrote:[edited out]

[2]

I suppose it depends on what stage of life you are. The later middle age folk in my family have gravitated toward bonds and fixed income. Can't say I blame them.

At that point, when I reallocated towards bonds and fixed income, I was doing it mostly based on speculation that the odds for down were greater than the odds for up, rather than any age-based attempt to preserve retirement income. Tentatively, I am expecting to begin drawing on my various investments in a kind of attempt to stop building any principle and to stop folding interest into those investments as a kind of retirement supplement and also living it up more in terms of increasing my own income from those sources in the next 5 years or so. Mostly I am thinking that I will just let my various 401k related index funds continue to ride at whatever levels they are at, and mostly I would just be planning to draw my additional income from the bitcoin portion of my holdings when I start to do that. I might start earlier, but at this point, my tentative timeline is around 5 years from now to make such increase of income towards myself from otherwise "long term" investments.

(11-02-2019, 04:54 PM)billydingdong Wrote: [3]
Been around the block on this topic! Hoping Bitcoin keeps going up because it drags my other crypto holdings with it, but as you know, I'm quite concerned about it long-term. Happy for those that have profited from it (including yours truly back in '17) and can easily imagine that Bitcoin gains over the last 3+ years would soothe any regrets of missing out on this stage of the stock market bull run.  Wink  

Well, surely an uncertainty aspect of hedges seems to be that none of us can be really sure about how the various assets that we choose to categorize as hedges are going to work out in terms of if they end up correlating to our other investments or if they don't, and of course, we kind of anticipate that all of them are not going to go up together, but we also hope that all of our chosen hedges do not go down together either, in the event that happens, so in that regard, each of us makes our bed a bit differently, and to some extent we have to lay in the bed that we had made - since we are not going to be able to go back and make it over 5 years down the road, or however long it takes to figure out if we had made reasonable choices in our allocations.

I have gotten a little more psychologically cocky (even if it is not any kind of sure bet) that I am going to have pretty decent odds of cashing out incremental portions of my BTC holdings whenever I want and based on need rather than based on price, including now if I want to because my cashing out threshold it $5k or higher. In other words, tentatively, I don't want to be cashing out any BTC at sub -$5k prices, if I am able to avoid it (which would of course exclude extreme emergency circumstances that might cause me to reconsider that sub $5k threshold).


(11-02-2019, 04:54 PM)billydingdong Wrote: [4]

No sir! I was mostly equities + cash when I started in 2008, but settled on what I call my 'Stair Case Strategy' about 2 years ago. I know I've mentioned it before, but here it is again:

35% total market equities
25% L/T treasuries
20% Cash Equivalents + S/T Treasuries
15% Gold
5% REITs.

I plan to flip the L/T treasury allocations for cash equivalents next month at rebalance time, and will stick to that allocation for the foreseeable future (at least 5 years).

I know. I might not always recall your allocation, and then sometimes the question might concern also some slightly different matter, including that I was a little stimulated by what appeared to be a bit of an excited utterance from you regarding our recently (including ATH) great performing equities. So, I was kind of curious if you might have been motivated to change your allocations or maybe to perform your allocations on a different timeframe than what you might have otherwise been planning.

Surely, I am not very rigid regarding my own reallocation strategies, and at least in regards to my total overall investment package, I consider my about mid-2016 reallocation to have been the last time that I engaged in any kind of overall and meaningful reallocation. Before mid-2016, I probably would engage in reallocation more frequently, maybe every one or two years, but I still kind of would play it by ear to some extent. I recall at one point in 2004 or so, I had looked at some of my investments, and I was kicking myself because I had thought that I had allocated both the internal amounts differently and also to the way that new money went into it differently, so I had been way too allocated in gov bonds and fixed bonds in that particular fund-set, so I had tried to pay a little bit better, yet I understand that sometimes each of us should really engage in a decent amount of reflection on our various investments from time to time and really consider if that is how we want them to be allocated. Of course, after the fact, it is much easier to say, I should have done x or y or z or to say, I am sure glad that I did a, b or c, but whatever ended up happening might have been more a product of luck rather than really considering if our allocations are invested in accordance with our individual circumstances: beliefs, cashflow, timeline, risk tolerance, etc.
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#75
I don't like market timing generally, but I'm backing way out on my index portfolios. I've made my money for the year and am rolling the equity/bond/cash ratio back from 80/20/0 to 40/40/20. There were major end-of-year/early year corrections in both 2018 and 2019. WSJ reports this morning that the world's largest hedge fund is positioning $1.5 billion in options for a correction by March.

I'm continuing to invest new money at my old ratios and will move the cash back in after a major drop, but probably retain the overallocation to bonds either until I'm confident the worst is over or until I've added enough new money that it doesn't matter anymore.
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#76
Great year for just about everything.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/02/in-2019-...orked.html

Quote:From stocks to government debt to corporate bonds to commodities, no matter where you went, you reaped a profit this year. The S&P 500 is up more than 25% and counting. Treasurys [sic], which tend to fall when risk assets rally, also gained in 2019. Oil, gold and corporate bonds all scored double-digit returns.

"Everybody is a genius in a bull market"
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#77
Stocks apparently have been down because of that virus. I've been waiting for a trigger event so I can swoop in for undervalued assets. Maybe I can put money in stocks but just been so busy lately to check on my investments.

Found out a couple days ago Goldmoney started implementing $10/month for their storage this year. By end of this month I'm either cashing in or converting to get physical gold. Goldmoney can kiss my ass with their nonsense. Everybody wants money from me lol.

Besides hard physical assets I have hard and soft skills so I'll always be able to make money. Like I said before investing is icing on the cake. Don't get me wrong, I am preparing for the day I'm old and my brain is shot but I want to make sure I take control of my day and my week.
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#78
(02-05-2020, 05:00 AM)ChicagoFire Wrote: Stocks apparently have been down because of that virus.

Stocks have been down for other reasons. High debts everywhere, be it form governments around the world or private people, negative interest rates are creeping in everywhere (I saw a bank in my country talking and advertising it and as you can imagine Luxembourg is THE financial place), FIAT money gets printed out like no tomorrow etc etc etc.

The Corona Virus might have triggered it, but the Corona Virus is not the reason!
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#79
(02-05-2020, 05:00 AM)ChicagoFire Wrote: Found out a couple days ago Goldmoney started implementing $10/month for their storage this year. By end of this month I'm either cashing in or converting to get physical gold. Goldmoney can kiss my ass with their nonsense. Everybody wants money from me lol.
Peter Schiff killed that company when he fused his company to it.  


First he abruptly stopped allowing crypto purchases on the platform, but he also imposed that fee.  

I cashed out of Goldmoney two days ago because of that.
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#80
I put some more money into bitcoin. I don't think this has been discussed in this thread but a tiny part of your investments should be having fun every now and then. The world could get hit by a comet and we're all dead.

As for my all time performing investments:
Stocks have been hit or miss. I have pulled off a return that hit 2x if my memory is correct. Historically this area returns 10%.
Fundrise is too early to tell but I've been hitting 8% all time.
Crypto is too early to tell but could be my all time leader. Fingers crossed but I'm still taking action everyday.

"Gurus"
Wall street playboys is okay in moderation. In real life you will see people working jobs that are doing fine. My buddy works as a paramedic and has been hitting me up to help him with his side business. He makes 100K+, owned a boat at one point, and has no debt.

Financial Samurai is garbage. His exit plan book sucks, his advice on prosper sucks (5%ish returns on my end?), his advice on betterment sucks (I lost money), his advice on driving for lyft is stupid.

30Days to X is cool. Unsexy site but advice is practical. Robert needs more love here.

Mr Money Moustache: okay FIRE advice. You can only talk about living below your means before you beat a dead horse. I can't help but wonder if that's why his wife divorced him since nobody could/would want to live like how MMM proposes for decades. Somebody on the Roosh forum raised a valid point about this site possibly being linked to the Illuminati.
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