The Stock Market, Investments, and Investing Thread
#41
(08-15-2019, 06:49 PM)billydingdong Wrote: After a volatile month in the financial markets, gold and treasuries are up big.  

Bitcoin not responding as 'store of value' at this moment in time. Maybe that changes as the year rolls on.

Here are some 1 month charts of total stock market, bitcoin, gold and long-term treasuries.

Total stock market

[Image: ADS6LNC.jpg]

Gold

[Image: mKch5xi.jpg]

Long-term Treasuries

[Image: TXXHE0B.jpg]

Bitcoin

[Image: Ux5AFoE.jpg]

Get the fuck out of here, billydingdong, with your short-term nonsense and assessment that bitcoin is not serving as a "store of value", recently.  You gotta look at the matter from more than a 1 month perspective.. not only in terms of historical performance but also in terms of thinking about what you are going to do now, if anything, in terms of your various investments.  

And, the "store of value" narrative is a longer-term descriptor regarding what is bitcoin is likely to be or to become rather than some kind of thing that you can count on with certainty in bitcoin - especially on shorter time horizons - even though the actual charts that you had provided above are showing BTC outperforming all of the other asset classes.

Anyhow, almost any kind of aberrations can happen in one month, and you have a story that you would like to tell about bitcoin not being a good investment, so it seems.  No?  I have asserted on a number of occasions, that one of the most certain things in bitcoin in the coming years is going to be its volatility, rather than its price direction, so I would suggest that any guy who buys into bitcoin, figures out ways to prepare himself psychologically and financially for ongoing and likely severe volatility in bitcoin.. and maybe figure out ways to profit from such a dynamic that is so likely to continue as a kind of close to certainty.

If you are so smart about the current market status of various asset classes, what are your recommendations regarding current allocations, in order to see performance of your portfolio one or two years down the road?    With those four asset classes, how are you going to allocate?  Tell us.  How much in each?  

Let's hypothesize a $12k budget with $6k that is available to spend now, and $6k cashflow over the next 6 months?   How are you going to invest your budget?  You can double your budget if you want, I was just trying to approximate something that is easily divisible by 6, and portray a budget that might feasibly be available to a possible guy who is living with a $20k or more annual budget.. and some savings.  

How are you going to propose allocate those hypothetical funds?  You going to put ethereum into the mix, since you had been so hot and heavy about ethereum [scam] projects in recent times?  You did not mention Ethereum, above.  Is that going to be included in your investment allocation recommendations?
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#42
(08-15-2019, 08:24 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(08-15-2019, 06:49 PM)billydingdong Wrote: ...

Bitcoin not responding as 'store of value' at this moment in time. Maybe that changes as the year rolls on.

...

Get the fuck out of here, billydingdong, with your short-term nonsense and assessment that bitcoin is not serving as a "store of value", recently.  You gotta look at the matter from more than a 1 month perspective.. not only in terms of historical performance but also in terms of thinking about what you are going to do now, if anything, in terms of your various investments.  

...

Settle down, JJG... You're reading comprehension is almost as mindless as your writing style.

Bitcoin not responding as 'store of value' at this moment in time. Maybe that changes as the year rolls on.

I wrote 'at this moment in time' so maybe it happens later...or maybe it doesn't. I'm not saying anything about it long-term although if I had to wager, I would bet that bitcoin does indeed increase at some point this year....

But if you can't acknowledge that investment capital is flowing into gold (conventional store of value) and treasuries (conventional safe haven asset) right now in a skittish market, then maybe you should take some time away from the screen and go get in touch with reality. Smile
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#43
(08-15-2019, 10:32 PM)billydingdong Wrote:
(08-15-2019, 08:24 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(08-15-2019, 06:49 PM)billydingdong Wrote: ...

Bitcoin not responding as 'store of value' at this moment in time. Maybe that changes as the year rolls on.

...

Get the fuck out of here, billydingdong, with your short-term nonsense and assessment that bitcoin is not serving as a "store of value", recently.  You gotta look at the matter from more than a 1 month perspective.. not only in terms of historical performance but also in terms of thinking about what you are going to do now, if anything, in terms of your various investments.  

...

Settle down, JJG... You're reading comprehension is almost as mindless as your writing style.

Speak for yourself in terms of any attempts at emotional assessments.

Of course, you are telling me that you would have chosen different words, and that remains your choice. Go to it, to the extent that you deem suitable to your purpose(s).

I give few fucks regarding your assessment of my word choice.

(08-15-2019, 10:32 PM)billydingdong Wrote: Bitcoin not responding as 'store of value' at this moment in time. Maybe that changes as the year rolls on.
I wrote 'at this moment in time' so maybe it happens later...or maybe it doesn't.

O.k. Then are you really saying anything?

(08-15-2019, 10:32 PM)billydingdong Wrote: I'm not saying anything about it long-term although if I had to wager, I would bet that bitcoin does indeed increase at some point this year....

Like I have mentioned several times, it is very difficult to make meaningful assessments of BTC price direction in the short term, but based on the upcoming halvening in May 2020, current upwards BTC price momentum and ongoing pressures, and ongoing positive developments in the BTC space, the next two years or more are likely to continue to have ongoing upwards BTC price pressures. I have few clues about the short term, such as pinning matters down to this calendar year because the price could go either way in the shorter-term, in spite of decently strong fundamentals and being in a seemingly bullish market, currently.

(08-15-2019, 10:32 PM)billydingdong Wrote: But if you can't acknowledge that investment capital is flowing into gold (conventional store of value) and treasuries (conventional safe haven asset) right now in a skittish market, then maybe you should take some time away from the screen and go get in touch with reality. Smile

Huh? Did I say anything about those other assets? Of course, finally after 10 years, gold has gone up 20%-ish.. holy moley fuck... . so do what you want... anyhow, I asked you a question regarding what to do with a hypothetical $12k budget, in order to clarify what you are saying or suggesting, rather than to elaborate on my criticism, which seemed to have been your wanting to get a dig in at BTC without even mentioning your lovey wuvy ETH....., which brings questions to your ability to really make any kind of meaningful or solid assessments regarding what guys should do, perhaps, based on your assessment of the price performance of various asset classes in the past month... One thing is to describe what they have done, and another thing is to make some kind of meaningful suggestion if any action should be taken based on such a short term assessment.

Are you saying to put more value in gold at this time, or has gold already had its run? Or are you trying to suggest to take profits in one or more of the asset categories or reallocate or just let them ride at current investment levels (whatever the fuck that might happen to be, perhaps something like you had already suggested about your holding percentages in your earlier post?). I am trying to get some kind of idea about what you are saying in terms of whether the performance of those assets of the last month are indicating about present of future action or just to HODL whatever position?
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#44
(08-15-2019, 08:24 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: [1]Anyhow, almost any kind of aberrations can happen in one month, and you have a story that you would like to tell about bitcoin not being a good investment, so it seems.  No? ...

[2]If you are so smart about the current market status of various asset classes, what are your recommendations regarding current allocations, in order to see performance of your portfolio one or two years down the road?    With those four asset classes, how are you going to allocate?  Tell us.  How much in each?  

Let's hypothesize a $12k budget with $6k that is available to spend now, and $6k cashflow over the next 6 months?   How are you going to invest your budget?

...

How are you going to propose allocate those hypothetical funds?  [3]You going to put ethereum into the mix, since you had been so hot and heavy about ethereum [scam] projects in recent times?  You did not mention Ethereum, above.  Is that going to be included in your investment allocation recommendations?

[1] Not really. I think Bitcoin is alright and better than most cryptos, especially in the short-term to next 3 or so years. Its store of value narrative as an investment case could really catch on and soon find favor with institutional investors. But I still think it's pretty risky, and if I'm going to take on the risk, I'd rather invest in other coins that could multiply even more as the space matures and when the next hype wave comes.


[2] Where did I indicate I knew anything about the current market or where it was going...? I'm observing what's happening right now at this moment. I don't know what the hell is going to happen.

I also won't tell anyone what to do -- everyone has to decide that on their own based on their own risk tolerance. For someone who took a lot of risk with their company and sold it for a lot and needs to put kids through school, short-term bonds may be okay. For someone with a steady job and a steady income, maybe a little more risk with equities and crypto is alright. For someone with a lot of capital or a windfall, maybe more real estate or a hedge fund.

Life circumstances and risk tolerance are highly individual. Personally, I wouldn't want to stomach a 40% drop in my overall portfolio, but in 2008, many did. Those who held on have been rewarded handsomely, but I think that's easier said than done.

For that reason, it's helped me to draw a line in the sand and distinguish between 2 portfolios: my permanent portfolio and variable portfolio.

My permanent portfolio is my long-term investment strategy. My variable portfolio is short term and medium term plays. Currently my variable portfolio is a little more than 3% of total value w/ Ethereum being around 70% of that 3% portion. I also have some other cryptos in there that I'm less optimistic about.

Permanent portfolio allocations as I've mentioned are:

35% US equities
25% Long-term US treasuries
20% cash
15% gold
5% REITs

My reasoning is simple: Equities + REITS for times of prosperity, treasuries for times of recession, gold + REITs for times of inflation, and cash (equivalents) for times of deflation when the other assets go on sale. Historically the economy tilts toward inflation + prosperity, so I want to weigh toward equities.

Performance-wise since the 70's, this portfolio has slightly lower returns, but much lower volatility and drawdown than the standard 60% equities / 40% bonds. Also worth mentioning that my goal is preservation and modest growth... I don't need to take on more risk by going 100% equities.

But these things are personal and to each their own. It's tough not to get FOMO in a bull market like in 2017 and the first half of this year, but it's times like now where I'm thankful I've diversified in the way that I have.


[3] At this point I consider all the cryptos to be pretty damn risky even though I'm obviously bullish on the space as a whole. If I were advising my brother who is in a similar situation as me and if he wanted to get into crypto, I would tell him to buy some mix of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, Monero, EOS, Cardano, Binance Coin, Chainlink, and Quantum with a heavier weighting on Bitcoin and Ethereum.

For me, I'm willing to take on the risk of individual crypto projects that I'm personally bullish on since my permanent portfolio is pretty conservative.
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#45
(08-15-2019, 11:53 PM)billydingdong Wrote:
(08-15-2019, 08:24 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: [edited out]

[1] Not really. I think it's alright and better than most cryptos, especially in the short-term to next 3 or so years. But I still think it's pretty risky,

Fair clarification, and I largely agree with this, except that I have my doubts about whether a BTC bull market would be able to persist for 3 years, without some kind of meaningful correction - but I am kind of modeling on a kind of fractal representation of earlier BTC price performance bubbles, which have tended to get a bit out of control towards the upside and results in downwards violence, too. Sure it is possible that such upwards exponential price growth could get drug out towards a three year timeline, but the current evidence seems to be supporting a tentative thesis that upwards BTC price runs might be front run, rather than longer term manipulated downwardly first.. which would be the 3 year scenario.... I am not really wedded to a shorter timeline, and I understand that BTC is filled with surprises, including the fact that there could be some longer dragging out of the upcoming exponential price spurts, to the extent that they might happen.


(08-15-2019, 11:53 PM)billydingdong Wrote: and if I'm going to take on the risk, I'd rather invest in other coins that could multiply even more as the space matures and when the next hype wave comes.

I have already largely responded to that point, and surely I believe that thinking to be based on widespread erroneously framing of shitcoins as having some kind of meaningful value. Of course, you are going to continue to support such thesis for your own investment rationale, and hopefully that works out for you.

Just to repeat, one more time, for the benefit of possible clarification. I have already suggested that the performance of any of the shit coins, whether you are talking about ethereum or some other shit coin is largely already correlated to the successful performance of bitcoin, so their mere success would fail if bitcoin does not succeed. Of course, since, overall, they have lower market caps, and they already are partly built upon a culture of pumping crapola, it is quite reasonable that any or all of them can be pumped beyond the performance of bitcoin, but personally, I am not going to allocate much if any of my resources in the direction of such pumpening or a kind of vaporware marketing hype machine, rather than substance...

In other words, I can actually understand that people are going to see the matter differently than me, and therefore, I could understand some kind of minority (even perhaps up to 30% or 40%) of a portfolio put into various shit coins that a guy assesses as potentially profitable, but I would think that anything beyond 10% or 15% is a bit reckless.

(08-15-2019, 11:53 PM)billydingdong Wrote: [2] Where did I indicate I knew anything about the current market or where it was going...? I'm observing what's happening right now at this moment. I don't know what the hell is going to happen.

Fair enough that I may have been largely responding to your seemingly quasi-subconscious dig at bitcoin, and a kind of gloating of Gold's mediocre performance that has been getting a lot of recent press. I still would like to know the meaning of such, and I have heard a lot of people elated by gold's recent performance, which still remains somewhat problematic with some tensions between paper representations and physical representations, so I don't know what happens when push comes to shove and the manipulation is attempted, but few people still hold the physical gold, and even if they do, their physical gold remains highly manipulated by paper representations, in part due to their cumbersome abilities to actually demand and to get physical possession - which is also highly impractical, especially relative to the new world of digital scarcity that more and more of us are learning about recently through bitcoin.

(08-15-2019, 11:53 PM)billydingdong Wrote: I also won't tell anyone what to do -- everyone has to decide that on their own based on their own risk tolerance. For some one who took a lot of risk with their company and sold it for a lot and needs to put kids through school, short-term bonds may be okay. For someone with a steady job and a steady income, maybe a little more risk with equities and crypto is alright. For someone with a lot of capital or a windfall, maybe more real estate or a hedge fund.

You seem to be fighting the hypothetical. The hypothetical already assumes a $12k investment budget over the next 6 months with $6k available to invest immediately. Of course, personal circumstances are going to vary including risk tolerance and even views of the various asset classes, and even timeline for investing, but I think that I even allowed for at least a 2 year timeline in my hypothetical, so I would think that you should be able to come up with some kind of reasonable investment strategy for such a person, and even plugging in your own views of risk tolerance and views on the various asset classes - any person would need to plug in their own views after seeing how you might suggest to approach such a hypothetical budget.


(08-15-2019, 11:53 PM)billydingdong Wrote: Life circumstances and risk tolerance are highly individual. Personally, I wouldn't want to stomach a 40% drop in my overall portfolio, but in 2008, many did and they've been rewarded handsomely since.

Well you could easily factor those kinds of expectations into your budget. You are already doing something, so why not just describe what you are doing and how to plug $12k into that? Should not be that difficult, even including some concern that maybe guys, including yourself, might choose to keep some of it in cash.

(08-15-2019, 11:53 PM)billydingdong Wrote: For that reason, it's helped me to draw a line in the sand and distinguish between 2 portfolios: my permanent portfolio and variable portfolio.

My permanent portfolio is my long-term investment strategy. My variable portfolio is short term and medium term plays. Currently my variable portfolio is a little more than 3% of total value w/ Ethereum being around 70% of that 3% portion. I also have some other cryptos in there that I'm less optimistic about.

Permanent portfolio allocations as I've mentioned are:

35% US equities
25% Long-term US treasuries
20% cash
15% gold
5% REITs


You are saying that your permanent portfolio is about 97% and your variable portfolio is 3%?

Then with a $12k budget, you would be suggesting that a guy just invests the $6k right away in the proportions that you are invested, and every month invest $1k more in the allocations of your portfolio, no?

(08-15-2019, 11:53 PM)billydingdong Wrote: My reasoning is simple: Equities + REITS for times of prosperity, treasuries for times of recession, gold + REITs for times of inflation, and cash (equivalents) for times of deflation when the other assets go on sale. Historically the economy tilts toward inflation + prosperity, so I want to weigh toward equities.

And therefore, you are anticipating a longer than 2 year timeline of staying invested in your allocations, and perhaps reallocating on a regular basis, annually? or based on significant changes in the percentages, due to relative performance ?


(08-15-2019, 11:53 PM)billydingdong Wrote: Performance-wise since the 70's, this portfolio has slightly lower returns, but much lower volatility and drawdown than the standard 60% equities / 40% bonds. Also worth mentioning that my goal is preservation and modest growth... I don't need to take on more risk by going 100% equities.

I don't really disagree with your allocations, but maybe just your variable portion and its direction towards, mostly ethereum. I doubt that you have been investing since the 70s.

Hey I started investing in the 80s, but it took me almost until the early 2000s before I had enough value to really consider my allocations and reallocations to attempt to have more stability, but then I did attempt to mostly invest into stock index funds, too (which you consider as equities).

(08-15-2019, 11:53 PM)billydingdong Wrote: But these things are personal and to each their own. It's tough not to get FOMO in a bull market like in 2017 and the first half of this year, but it's times like now where I'm thankful I've diversified in the way that I have.

I believe that anyone is less likely to fomo if they have actually thought out their plan and just to stick with it. Surely, sometimes guys could take some time to reassess and even take from a portion of their total investments in order to invest in a direction that is different from their historical investments, but of course, it is much better to attempt to accomplish such strategizing around a reinvestment plan during periods in which you are NOT emotional or FOMO-ing, and sometimes if a guy's plan is well thought out, then it could take 5 years or more for the plan to either settle or to start to show pay off.

For example, when I got into bitcoin in late 2013, I had already pretty much established the totality of my investments, and I had never had gold in my investment, therefore, I saw bitcoin as a kind of gold substitute. So I took from the overall percentages of all of my investments and largely aimed towards allocating 10% towards bitcoin, and that took me about a year to accomplish. So my point is that any time that a new asset class or a new way of considering an investment portfolio is entertained, it could take a while to diversify out of the current status and into the new status, and I surely would consider that as a means to lessen feelings of FOMO-ing.

By the way, with my BTC investment, it took me several years to battle my urges towards FOMO-ing, so I had some of those kinds of feelings that caused me to screw up my plan on a couple of occasions, and then I did force myself to go back to my plan and to attempt to learn from my mistakes regarding getting emotional. Another thing that helps emotions, is if the investment wildly exceeds expectations, so in that regard, the amount of equity that gets built up, can also contribute to a kind of settling down of FOMO-ing inclinations.

(08-15-2019, 11:53 PM)billydingdong Wrote: [3] At this point I consider all the cryptos to be pretty damn risky even though I'm obviously bullish on the space as a whole. If I were advising my brother who  is in a similar situation as me and if he wanted to get into crypto, I would tell him to buy some mix of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, Monero, EOS, Cardano, Binance Coin,  Chainlink, and Quantum with a heavier weighting on Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Even though I differ a bit in regards to your thinking about throwing so much out there, because that level of diversification does not seem to be necessary. Usually, diversification is among differing asset classes rather than within likely correlated asset classes, but hey whatever, if you are erroneously considering those other coins NOT to be already correlated to bitcoin, then so be it. I suppose that I could agree with something that would be 80% bitcoin, 10% ethereum and 10% remainder of shitcoins (or some variation of that), but I am kind of cringing at myself for even writing it - even while I know that guys are going to end up doing something like that anyhow, so at least if I put some kind of qualification on it, I am not really recommending it, but I am saying that I could understand how something like that might be somewhat within reasonable long term thinking, perhaps.

(08-15-2019, 11:53 PM)billydingdong Wrote: For me, I'm willing to take on the risk of individual projects since my  permanent portfolio is pretty conservative.

Actually, that part makes sense, especially if you are attempting to make some active engagements with the space, too, and if you feel some kind of joy, excitement or interest in studying certain projects - while recognizing some potential value in them for some kind of technical contributions that they could possibly end up making - so long, as well, that you are not losing sight of some of the BIG picture contributions of the one who actually brought you and your shit coin buddies to the dance - and that security model of king daddy has no way been undermined by the existence of a bunch of projects that put out a series of marketing efforts in which part of their success seems to be reliant upon some kind of supposed or exaggerated (and perhaps non-existent) defects in bitcoin.
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#46
As some from RvF may know, I'm also a big fan of passive investing. I'm currently roughly mimicking world capitalization:

50% S&P 500
50% MSCI EAFE

Some of it is with Schwab, and some of it is with Fidelity. I love those low expense ratio mutual funds. I've even got two of the Fidelity zero expense ratio ones (should be obvious which ones).

I've also got some cash on the side, in case I want to buy some real estate for personal use, or put it into the stock market when the next recession hits.

Crypto? I'll duck out of that debate.
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#47
(09-25-2019, 07:35 PM)262 Wrote: Some of it is with Schwab, and some of it is with Fidelity. I love those low expense ratio mutual funds. I've even got two of the Fidelity zero expense ratio ones (should be obvious which ones).

Yeah, at this point I'm firmly in the Schwab Til I Die gang. Really nice one stop option for a full suite of services including awesome checking that refunds all your ATM fees, whether it's a sketchy foreign bodega or a Vegas casino. Partnership with American Express. Nice selection of commission-free, low-fee funds and ETFs that keeps getting bigger. Their in-house short-term bond index fund, SWSBX, is also a pretty good place to keep cash you know you might need but are planning to set back for three-to-five years or more.

Only things I'm not crazy about is that you can't bring cash deposits into a Schwab branch, but that doesn't come up much in real life.
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#48
(09-25-2019, 07:35 PM)262 Wrote: As some from RvF may know, I'm also a big fan of passive investing. I'm currently roughly mimicking world capitalization:

50% S&P 500
50% MSCI EAFE

Some of it is with Schwab, and some of it is with Fidelity. I love those low expense ratio mutual funds. I've even got two of the Fidelity zero expense ratio ones (should be obvious which ones).

I've also got some cash on the side, in case I want to buy some real estate for personal use, or put it into the stock market when the next recession hits.

Crypto? I'll duck out of that debate.

Seems sensible enough.

Fidelity is a nice online brokerage, and I've been happy with my experience there.

Their index funds are great in terms of expense fees and capitalization, their trading fees are very competitive ($4.95 / online trade), and trading iShares ETFs on their platform is free. The online experience and UI at Fidelity is the best I've come across — at least when compared to Merrill Edge and Vanguard.

EAFE index stocks have gotten buttfucked by the S&P 500 this decade, but it wasn't always this way. They very well could be in line for their own bull run.

[Image: MW-HK779_spx_ea_20190604130032_ZH.jpg?uu...8e992d421e]

...

On crypto... probably a good time to echo that after a good ~25% tumble this week, the asset class is highly speculative: a lot has to break right for it to appreciate in the long-term. Even under the best scenario with solid tech (i.e. a truly scalable, decentralized, permissionless, reliable ledger that can execute smart contracts) and proven responsible governance, it might not even gain sufficient adoption if the current systems in place we use every day are still seen as good enough. It's intriguing, but a true wildcard.
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#49
Best investment is yourself. Invest in good food, safe neighborhood, get a library card, etc.

I can admit one of the worst investments I made was peer to peer lending (prosper). Highest return I hit was about 5%. When I checked my account today the return was at 2%. Yeah....inflation is killing my gains.

This is my investment strategy:
* Dollar cost average into the market.
* Have some exposure in risky assets like crypto. Not arguing with anybody but I frankly think crypto is a libertarian's wet dream. I'm still trying to sell my assets while minimizing my tax gains. Samseau persuaded me to buy monero and I wonder how that coin is doing since I don't have as much time to look into crypto.
* Have exposure to real estate through fundrise and gold through goldmoney. Both are time tested assets.
* Sock away 10% of your paycheck into investments.
* If there really is recession I'll be buying up whatever is dipping.
* No day trading as I'm not smart enough to outsmart the market.
* No 401Ks or pensions, never understood the whole work for a company for 20 years with matching only to enjoy the money when you're too old to do it. Today, tomorrow, and yesterday were great days to work on your own business. Everybody has 1 hour to spare to work on their project.
* Have fun! Life is too short to worry about economic doomsday. Just don't be caught with your pants down.
* Do this for 20 years.

In process: Research putting money in offshore accounts.

That's what I do and obviously open to refining my method.
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#50
(09-26-2019, 06:13 PM)Jetset Wrote:
(09-25-2019, 07:35 PM)262 Wrote: Some of it is with Schwab, and some of it is with Fidelity. I love those low expense ratio mutual funds. I've even got two of the Fidelity zero expense ratio ones (should be obvious which ones).

Yeah, at this point I'm firmly in the Schwab Til I Die gang. Really nice one stop option for a full suite of services including awesome checking that refunds all your ATM fees, whether it's a sketchy foreign bodega or a Vegas casino. Partnership with American Express. Nice selection of commission-free, low-fee funds and ETFs that keeps getting bigger. Their in-house short-term bond index fund, SWSBX, is also a pretty good place to keep cash you know you might need but are planning to set back for three-to-five years or more.

Only things I'm not crazy about is that you can't bring cash deposits into a Schwab branch, but that doesn't come up much in real life.

Yes, I too bank with Schwab. I love how they refund all your ATM fees - WORLDWIDE - and let you use said ATMs at near market exchange rates.

Schwab and Fidelity also have branches all over the US (as opposed to being regional or having none), which can definitely speed up certain transactions, such as paper check deposits too big to be deposited by mobile app.
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#51
(09-26-2019, 09:57 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: Best investment is yourself. Invest in good food, safe neighborhood, get a library card, etc.

I can admit one of the worst investments I made was peer to peer lending (prosper). Highest return I hit was about 5%. When I checked my account today the return was at 2%. Yeah....inflation is killing my gains.

This is my investment strategy:
* Dollar cost average into the market.
* Have some exposure in risky assets like crypto. Not arguing with anybody but I frankly think crypto is a libertarian's wet dream. I'm still trying to sell my assets while minimizing my tax gains. Samseau persuaded me to buy monero and I wonder how that coin is doing since I don't have as much time to look into crypto.
* Have exposure to real estate through fundrise and gold through goldmoney. Both are time tested assets.  
* Sock away 10% of your paycheck into investments.
* If there really is recession I'll be buying up whatever is dipping.
* No day trading as I'm not smart enough to outsmart the market.
* No 401Ks or pensions, never understood the whole work for a company for 20 years with matching only to enjoy the money when you're too old to do it. Today, tomorrow, and yesterday were great days to work on your own business. Everybody has 1 hour to spare to work on their project.
* Have fun! Life is too short to worry about economic doomsday. Just don't be caught with your pants down.
* Do this for 20 years.

In process: Research putting money in offshore accounts.

That's what I do and obviously open to refining my method.

I like your overall strategy.  Some things to consider:

Since there is major dispute regarding whether lump sum investing is better than dollar cost averaging,  consider doing both by lump summing half and averaging in the second half.

Your Fundrise and Goldmoney recommendations are on point, however I am not as high on Goldmoney because they charge 3% of your investment at purchase time.  That is too steep in my estimation, but the service they provide is a good one.

Day trading is a fool's game as you point out, but SWING trading has been a good way for me to shave off profits after holding weeks and months.  Take profits and buy back when the price goes back down.

You are correct about 401k's so long as your employer does not provide matching for your contributions.  Forgoing matching contributions would be forgoing free money.

But you clearly have a sophisticated understanding of asset allocation and you could very well eclipse my own investing performance.
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#52
(09-26-2019, 09:57 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: * Have exposure to real estate through fundrise and gold through goldmoney. Both are time tested assets.

I think I've vented my doubts about gold on RVF enough in the past, but I'm curious what your experience with Fundrise has been like. I'm not crazy about tilting any of my existing portfolios to big REIT index funds and don't have a lot of free energy to get involved in individual properties, but am interested in real estate generally.
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#53
@CC
For 401Ks I've worked enough terrible jobs that I'm jaded about working for an employer unless they make my work experience worth it. Just my "journey" and if others are cool with the so called free money that's fine. Employers have to sell job security and the glitzy title but they're quick to replace you if they can find a cheaper option. At the end of the day I want to own my own business and not deal with HR tattletales or my boss' midlife crisis. To each their own.

One benefit to goldmoney is you can charge up your credit cards for airmiles AND invest into your future. I haven't invested in Goldmoney in a while so if there really is a fee now or before that's a way to offset it. Obviously pay off the balance unless you want to get socked for interest. I've had that happen a couple times but fortunately I nipped it in the bud fast. Thanks for the information, I thought I ought to give some more.

@Jetset:
My Fundrise portfolio is about 8 months old. With that out of the way on the moderate investing setting I have gotten some dividends. Nothing life changing but it's sort of paying off. I should report back 3-5 years from now with Fundrise. I don't like dealing with people and don't have the money to take out a mortgage so that's why I picked Fundrise.

I just want exposure to assets that provide money so that will include gold, real estate, P2P lending, stock motifs, etc. There's risks in everything (North Korea could EMP America and there goes your crypto) but that's why you diversify.
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#54
(09-27-2019, 05:16 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: @CC
For 401Ks I've worked enough terrible jobs that I'm jaded about working for an employer unless they make my work experience worth it. Just my "journey" and if others are cool with the so called free money that's fine. Employers have to sell job security and the glitzy title but they're quick to replace you if they can find a cheaper option. At the end of the day I want to own my own business and not deal with HR tattletales or my boss' midlife crisis. To each their own.

Your skepticism and even jadedness about getting involved with employers is not necessarily a bad thing, and I suppose you might be reflecting a broader and broader mindset for a variety of people, guys especially.   

Surely you are likely already familiar with what I have to say, but I will say it anyhow.  Historically, there had been some decent abilities in the West for guys to provide for their families and even to accomplish such one income family.  Those traditional jobs had pensions, yet the 401k has become a substitute for the pension... and many would argue an inferior substitute, but if your job has a 401k that has matching funds, then that would be one of the smartest first things to do with your money.  Of course, those 401k options are not as much available even, and surely they only become available when guys chose to have such jobs that have 401k options.  Furthermore, you don't necessarily have to work "for the man" for your whole life, but you likely have to contribute to the 401k (and thus be employed for that employer) for a certain amount of time before your benefits will vest, and usually that is 3-5 years, and will vary from one 401k plan to another.

I do personally believe that if a 401k is available to guys then it is generally a good idea to contribute at least to the matching portion of the Employer's contributions, and sometimes it could cause a decent amount of accumulation of wealth that would not have otherwise been within a guy's self-discipline to have had caused on his own.  But, yeah, if guys never have such options or they feel that they are selling out to the man too much in order to take such a tie-me-down job, then that could be an option that you have just limited yourself from.  There is a saying to make your money in the west and then retire in the east, so in that regard, it would just mean attempting to earn your money in areas that pay way more and then go to areas (and presumably take your value) in which the cost of living is way less.

Just food for thought rather than really trying to argue any point with you, CF.. because in the end, guys will make differing choices regarding how much they might feel is prudent to sell out to the man in order to build a nest egg that might cause them more options in terms of future wealth or even building their wealth more quickly rather than working until they collapse (and some guys believe that working gives them meaning too, and personally, I would rather have goals to graduate from working to the extent that I am able to).
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#55
(09-26-2019, 09:57 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: Best investment is yourself. Invest in good food, safe neighborhood, get a library card, etc.

I can admit one of the worst investments I made was peer to peer lending (prosper). Highest return I hit was about 5%. When I checked my account today the return was at 2%. Yeah....inflation is killing my gains.

This is my investment strategy:
* Dollar cost average into the market.
* [1] Have some exposure in risky assets like crypto. Not arguing with anybody but I frankly think crypto is a libertarian's wet dream. I'm still trying to sell my assets while minimizing my tax gains.  Samseau persuaded me to buy monero and I wonder how that coin is doing since I don't have as much time to look into crypto.
* [2] Have exposure to real estate through fundrise and gold through goldmoney. Both are time tested assets.  
* Sock away 10% of your paycheck into investments.
*  If there really is recession I'll be buying up whatever is dipping.
* No day trading as I'm not smart enough to outsmart the market.
* [3] No 401Ks or pensions, never understood the whole work for a company for 20 years with matching only to enjoy the money when you're too old to do it. Today, tomorrow, and yesterday were great days to work on your own business. Everybody has 1 hour to spare to work on their project.
* Have fun! Life is too short to worry about economic doomsday. Just don't be caught with your pants down.
* Do this for 20 years.

In process: Research putting money in offshore accounts.

That's what I do and obviously open to refining my method.

Interesting strategy thanks for sharing.

[1] If you want to enjoy your weekend, I'd recommend you not check the crypto price charts Smile 

[2] Never heard of fundrise, but I'd be interested to know why you prefer it over REITs. Looks cool, but I wonder if there's a catch — high % expense fees or transaction fees (entering/exiting a position)... I'll check it out over the weekend.

[3] Not to hammer on you, but you may want to strongly reconsider this.

As Contrarian and JJG have mentioned, a company is literally giving you 'free', additional money if you contribute to a 401k matching plan.
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#56
(09-27-2019, 03:21 PM)Jetset Wrote:
(09-26-2019, 09:57 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: * Have exposure to real estate through fundrise and gold through goldmoney. Both are time tested assets.

I think I've vented my doubts about gold on RVF enough in the past, but I'm curious what your experience with Fundrise has been like. I'm not crazy about tilting any of my existing portfolios to big REIT index funds and don't have a lot of free energy to get involved in individual properties, but am interested in real estate generally.

@Jetset

Below is a great link to each of the Fundrise eReits and eFunds.  Some are quite new and have yet to pay any dividends.  Also, keep in mind that the Growth-oriented eReits also pay appreciation in addition to the dividends so that is not reflected in the dividend rates cited.

I like Fundrise because it is a quarterly paycheck even if it is somewhat modestly in the 8% to 9% range.  For me, the steady paycheck when the stock market plummets is a valuable one to have. 

https://fundrise.com/offerings
Favorite Countries:  Finland, Latvia, Ukraine, Serbia, Montenegro, Georgia, Japan, Argentina.

Countries For Future Travel:  Norway, Sweden, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bosnia, Macedonia, Moldova, Uzbekistan.
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#57
(09-27-2019, 09:23 PM)billydingdong Wrote: Interesting strategy thanks for sharing.

[1] If you want to enjoy your weekend, I'd recommend you not check the crypto price charts Smile 

[2] Never heard of fundrise, but I'd be interested to know why you prefer it over REITs. Looks cool, but I wonder if there's a catch — high % expense fees or transaction fees (entering/exiting a position)...  I'll check it out over the weekend.

[3] Not to hammer on you, but you may want to strongly reconsider this.

As Contrarian and JJG have mentioned, a company is literally giving you 'free', additional money if you contribute to a 401k matching plan.

1) I haven't checked crypto price charts in a while. I also don't care about the new updates, news, etc. You have to be a certain addictive personality that likes to day trade (and probably play around drugs) but that's not me. I wouldn't be surprised if there's crypto kiddies that drive around in Rolls Royces and flash Rolexes (great way to attract negative attention). Not my lifestyle and after all the years working terrible jobs I'd like to think I don't throw away money. We all hit rock bottom, I think that's part of being a man. Even if I do sell I want to keep a tiny amount. If crypto is really going to the stars at least I make even more. 

2) I don't prefer fundrise over REITs. I just wanted exposure to real estate and there were other companies that required barriers like being a registered investor. All I remember is WallStreetPlayboys mentioned getting involved in real estate. I'll look into REITs, thanks. 

3) Made my position clear on 401Ks, might as well add a point against pensions. I currently live in Illinois and we have a pension crisis...I don't want to make this political but the articles are out there. I'm pretty sure I bitched about Illinois on Rooshv and wanting to move, I might make it happen late next year. If I trust you I can let you in on details.
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#58
(09-28-2019, 05:18 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: I haven't checked crypto price charts in a while. I also don't care about the new updates, news, etc. You have to be a certain addictive personality that likes to day trade (and probably play around drugs) but that's not me.

Your first response, CF, about not really being too interested in crypto did not really cause me to feel that I should respond, and even billydingdong's assertion that there is some kind of scary situation currently going on in crypto, merely because there is a bit of a price correction going on.

I actually believe that there is considerable fuzzy thinking going on if you attempt to understand crypto as a general phenomenon without really having a decent idea what bitcoin's role within that whole space is. So yeah, in that regard, getting to really have a decent grasp of what bitcoin is could be a quite extended process to try to figure out, but your conceptually lumping the whole space together is likely going to lead you to all kinds of wrong conclusions in terms of getting anywhere even close to understanding what is actually going on in bitcoin and how the rest of crypto relates to that.

Regarding day trading, I don't consider myself to be one of those, even though I did adopt a swing trading approach that I am attempting to employ with bitcoin that sometimes had ended up having to be acted upon more frequently when the BTC price swings are in phases of greater radicalness. I understand that some guys might argue that there is really no difference between a day trader and a swing trader, yet I believe that there is in
terms of both purpose and hopefully how the whole matter ends up playing out. A swing trader might be more concerned about playing broad swings in order to provide some downside insurance and not necessarily aimed at making short term profits, even if the overall swing trading practice is likely to result in profits - and that is largely where I consider myself to be, currently in regards to my bitcoin practices.

(09-28-2019, 05:18 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: I wouldn't be surprised if there's crypto kiddies that drive around in Rolls Royces and flash Rolexes (great way to attract negative attention).

The image that you are painting again seems to conflate crypto and bitcoin, and to even assume that there is only get rich quick in all of this, even though the get rich quick does have a decent amount of factual truth to considerable wide-spread occurrence - including some instance of get poor quick too by not playing the situation very well.

(09-28-2019, 05:18 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: Not my lifestyle and after all the years working terrible jobs I'd like to think I don't throw away money.

For sure there seems to be large advantages to exercising prudence and thinking through any of your investments.

(09-28-2019, 05:18 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: We all hit rock bottom, I think that's part of being a man. Even if I do sell I want to keep a tiny amount. If crypto is really going to the stars at least I make even more. 

You are implying that you do own some crypto, and I sense part of the problem is that you are possibly failing and refusing to look into how bitcoin is the king daddy of the space, and maybe that is part of the reason that a distraction with Monero (as you previously mentioned) might have led you into wrong thinking about what is actually going on and what most likely brings value to the space - including foundational principles of bitcoin's sound money contribution.

Of course, billydingdong and I have already gone around the block quite a bit regarding his various beliefs in ethereum, and we have largely agreed to disagree regarding either what he perceives as ethereum's value proposition, and his assertion that I don't know what is going on in ethereum enough in order that I can recognize ethereum's value proposition (which of course, several times, I have already denied that assessment of my view on the ethereum matter).

(09-28-2019, 05:18 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: I'm pretty sure I bitched about Illinois on Rooshv and wanting to move, I might make it happen late next year. If I trust you I can let you in on details.

Surely moving can take a whole hell of a long time, depending also regarding whether you have to change professions or wrap up business matters in an old jurisdiction to either move it to a new location or just to change businesses. I have been transitioning for several years, now, and surely I keep saying that I am going to go into a traveling status, rather than specific move to another jurisdiction to change quality of life. But, yeah, traveling could get old, so then a change of base (which I also recently did, and it has definite tax benefits) could cause me to end up spending more time than I wished to have done at the new location that has the tax benefits, but I like some of the excitement of other locations, too.

Sometimes, I, also, am quite disinclined to reveal too many details about my geographical location, even though from time to time, geographical location is quite relevant to points that are being made, whether talking about taxes or even about banging opportunities, which seems to be a declining interest in RVF - in recent days, my RVF rank did turn into a Crow.. rather than an Innovative Cassanova... not that I really care that much about titles, but Jesus, the sexual innuendos are becoming nearly completely white washed off of the acceptable ways of thinking in regards to guy motivations (which I would hate to lose my desire to seek out the banging of chicks... which might be part of the reason that a certain number of guys are motivated to reach comfortable financial status... attempting to relate the matter back to the investment thesis of this thread).
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#59
(09-27-2019, 09:23 PM)billydingdong Wrote: [2] Never heard of fundrise, but I'd be interested to know why you prefer it over REITs. Looks cool, but I wonder if there's a catch — high % expense fees or transaction fees (entering/exiting a position)...  I'll check it out over the weekend.

I won't speak for anybody else, but my main issue with publicly-traded REITs is that they're correlated to and exposed to public market fluctuations. One flaw of market-weight indexing is that it necessarily fails to represent the share of the economy that is privately traded, and I'm pretty sure real estate is disproportionately private, although I could be imagining that.

The other side of that coin is liquidity and transparency, but that's the risk-return ratio for you. My thinking is that once you've gotten to a point where your essential long-term investing goals - growing old on something other than Whiskas - are provided for, you can start looking at riskier strategies with shorter windows and higher expected returns. The management fees do look a little higher than I'm used to at Fundrise and aren't necessarily in line with my larger passive strategy, but a basket of private real estate projects is, at least, interesting to think about.

The secondary issue is that I'm in a position where I need more taxable income like I need a stab wound. That I can do Fundrise in incremental amounts via a Roth IRA and eliminate taxation on the returns entirely while still "withdrawing" dividends up to my original contribution tax-free in a pinch is also interesting. With the highest expected return of anything in my portfolio, dropping the marginal tax rate on the eventual withdrawal of the gains from 30% to 0% is a big deal, and whatever portion of my current Roth portfolio I shifted out to taxable would still be taxed as long-term capital gains/qualified dividends instead of regular income.

The downside is that if Fundrise's structure turns out to be a bagholder scam or simply grossly mismanaged, I can't write off the losses. That's something for me to look much more closely at and part of the risk you dilute by choosing a REIT index fund.
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#60
^
I have the book Wolf of Wall Street on my desk. Jordan Belfort can really tell a story. Nothing is ever what it seems and yes Fundrise may very well be a complex ponzi scheme. Then again just holding on to cash is stupid since inflation eats away at it. As always, diversify your assets. Point still remains to work on yourself, your relationships, etc. Life is just a test to see how self sufficient you are.

Thanks for the reply JJG. Added it to my list of items to read and ponder. Yeah, no idea why Roosh changed the forum titles to birds. Pretty weird. Like I've said I am open to suggestions as I don't think my approach is the end all be all. So much stuff to do nowadays...
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