Buying property in the US right now
#41
(10-16-2020, 11:16 PM)Wintermute Wrote: Outsourcing low level development work is simple, but when you hire a data scientist you're not just paying them to bash out code. You're paying for their domain knowledge and experience. The more complex your product the harder it is to outsource.

Early on I worked for a company that had its entire development team in a third world country. Know what happens when you do that? You end up with a buggy product that breaks down for reasons nobody understands.

I don't think working from home will become standard but we may see growing flexibility in the way people work.

To be perfectly blunt with you, I don't think this is accurate anymore mang.

Everyone in tech now is holding on and saying that it "can't possibly be outsourced." I don't think that these companies even need in house data scientists, they can simply use Engineers.

That's exactly my point. They can't code. Engineers can do their job, and my unpopular opinion here on those Engineers is many of them will be outsourced too.

In fact I know a F500 that did just that this year to Eastern Europeans and they actually did a better job.

I just don't think the stereotype of India or Ukraine stuck 10 years behind us is true anymore. This is all coming from real life situations, mainly from Accenture which I have a connect working on government contracting.

Government contracting should be the SAFEST thing from outsourcing. But now it's literally not, and that's what changed my opinion.

The engineers will say I'm wrong but let's wait and see mang. Let reality and the market do the fucking talking.

(10-17-2020, 12:29 AM)el_hefe Wrote: Here's further proof to fuel your theory:

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/14/923428794...ile-zoom-c

"Now members of the C-suite have gone full boomerang on Zoom meetings. After finding them awesome and productive at first, they're now questioning how much they really achieve and are suggesting they lead to a sterile work culture lacking in imagination"

It seems that a few CEOs of large companies are pulling a 180 and suggesting that work from home, although convenient during a global pandemic, is bad for business in the long run as it puts a hamper on both productivity and creativity.  I see this as fantastic news to be honest.  I'm hoping that with the passing of the pandemic a lot of these companies will start requiring people to get back in the office and away from working remotely in places like Florida and Texas.  Best case scenario...a lot of our new South Florida residents could end up dumping their places to get back up to NY.  Otherwise South Florida will turn into the next California/Manhattan with an impressively high COL and state taxes to boot. 

I'm biased and say this mostly because I live in South Florida and full on loath people from the NE on a cellular level. They should all pick up their ball and go back to where they came from.  Also I can clear a quarter mil on a good year and even with that I'm gonna have a hard time buying a house going forward if I choose to do so.  It's absolutely mind blowing what is going on down here with regard to the housing market.  It's almost too late if you haven't already bought in already.

I'm not going to lie and say I can buy a house in South Beach. Exactly, if you're not bought in it's really too late unless you wanna spend 20 million.

I also loathe these fucking Yankees, who come in here acting like they own the damn place. You're definitely ahead of me Investment wise. I'm looking at getting into stuff like Fundrise or Cadre, which are two RE investing platforms (like crowdfunding etc.)

The Chief Diversity cockroaches are lying and do nothing but fucking lie.

So when they tell me we are working home forever, I know they're full of shit.

Don't worry about the permanent richies coming down here because they know the rules. Most of those guys actually fly from Lauderdale to La Guardia all the time anyway.
But when the time comes, I know for a fact most of these rats are going back to YankeeLand.

NYC isn't gonna "disappear" either like the Kooks on RVF seem to think. Wall Street ain't moving to Miami. The guys who are done are getting out now, and the ones taking permanent remote jobs are fools.
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#42
(10-17-2020, 12:51 AM)SunnyFL Wrote: To be perfectly blunt with you, I don't think this is accurate anymore mang.

Everyone in tech now is holding on and saying that it "can't possibly be outsourced." I don't think that these companies even need in house data scientists, they can simply use Engineers.

That's exactly my point. They can't code. Engineers can do their job, and my unpopular opinion here on those Engineers is many of them will be outsourced too.

...

The engineers will say I'm wrong but let's wait and see mang. Let reality and the market do the fucking talking.

Engineer here. I'm going to suggest that you're partially right, but discounting other moving pieces in the market. Yes, there are highly skilled Indian and Ukrainian engineers, although I do think businesses are having more success offshoring in higher-conscientiousness societies like Argentina and Poland. The problem is that offshoring efforts in tech have been going on for twenty years and WFH for Americans was, itself, a response to hitting the bottom of the barrel. The highly-skilled are mostly already in the market rather than waiting to be discovered.

The horror stories about projects handed off to a team of Vladajeets who stop responding after they break everything can be boiled down to an economic cost, and a lot of lowball companies found that this actually cost them far more. The highly-skilled people, on the other hand, know what they're worth to Western businesses and demand competitive pay. A lot of them came to NYC, and they're now shopping for llama farms upstate with everyone else rather than looking at going back.

Even those that do, they're still beneficiaries of the limited supply and won't accept merely being paid well in Indian terms now that they're competing directly with Americans working from home. Early research is suggesting that most employees consider 10% nominal (number of dollars) salary reductions appropriate trade-offs for working from home, even though it's very possible to reduce cost-of-living by 50% or more. This goes back to what Suits was saying: employees who were willing to accept a lower standard of living in exchange for the status of living in NYC when the nightlife was open do still expect to be compensated for not having access to that. Employers will reduce their pay in nominal terms, which is cream for the employer (along with getting rid of some of the most expensive office space in on Earth), but the skilled candidates won't accept mere parity in real (buying power) terms. If they have to live in Mumbai, they'll expect to live an extraordinary lifestyle in Mumbai - competitive with a highly-paid American engineer who decided to expatriate.

There's also the issue that this isn't a static market. Demand for tech workers continues to grow in the United States, but it's also growing internationally. India and Ukraine catching up with the United States will reflect more domestic competition, and that domestic competition will likely be susceptible to the same forces as smaller American companies were when they started going WFH in the first place: if Amazon and Facebook start poaching highly-skilled tech workers in Mumbai, Mumbai employers will be forced to start hiring remote candidates in every town and village with broadband. We're nowhere near equilibrium on this.

Personally, my view is that WFH was already baked in to tech and isn't going anywhere. I haven't worked in an office for a decade unless they flew me in for a party, and my comp has increased an average of 10% year-over-year during that time, without a relevant degree. I'm negotiating a 20% bump with equity to replace a bunch of Eastern European contractors right now. (Far from solving an expensive American problem by hiring cheap foreigners, the company is solving their cheap foreigner problem with an expensive American.)

I agree with the bigger picture, though, that the exodus from the cities isn't permanent. It's human nature for people to gather and socialize wherever the action is. Some business functions can perform very well remotely, but others, not as much, and I think a more realistic result is people expecting to spend more of their work-weeks in their own homes, but living in areas where they can easily get together for face-to-face meetings. Exurbs of NYC, for example, will probably prosper in the longer-term, where commercial real estate in Manhattan might take a longer-lasting hit and be redeveloped for more suitable uses.

EDIT: As for Zoom meetings, the problem, as with face-to-face meetings, is people scheduling too fucking many of them. In my experience, it's a huge red flag about someone's skillset if something that can be answered quickly in writing requires a 40-minute conversation for them to get their point across. If companies that aren't experienced at WFH are trying to use Zoom to simulate in-office conversations instead of using new tools, yeah, they're going to have a bad time with this. It doesn't work.
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#43
That is absolutely fascinating insight. Thanks for taking the time to write that.

This topic is falling victim to every other topic that gets discussed online: people see it as a binary issue. Either everyone is going to start working from home in the new digital utopia, or we're going to have to become scavengers after the job apocalypse.

The nature of work will change as the world does, I think that's very healthy.
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#44
Not sure if this is relevant now, but IIRC, Best Buy HQ tried WFH back around 2005, but then walked it back.
If you haven't met anyone, I'll assume you're lying (h/t to Teedub from the old forum)
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#45
(10-16-2020, 03:02 PM)SunnyFL Wrote: Why pay a SoyBoy to be a "Data Scientist" for 200k remotely when they can use a Indian guy for the Indian equivalent of 200k? Or even a very skilled Ukranian dude?

IP theft, customer demand, national security concerns, the Ukrainian dude can only do so much. There's a reason why innovation comes out of SF, NYC, HTX (oil), and Austin. You can't teach that to those third world mongoloids even if you skull fuck them. 

All these niggas preach about outsourcing jobs, they might as well start outsourcing their customers instead of having Americans buy their products. If anything, those execs should be hung from a wall.

The market speaks, and it's willing to pay a lot of money for good engineers.
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#46
(10-18-2020, 11:53 PM)Cattle Rustler Wrote:
(10-16-2020, 03:02 PM)SunnyFL Wrote: Why pay a SoyBoy to be a "Data Scientist" for 200k remotely when they can use a Indian guy for the Indian equivalent of 200k? Or even a very skilled Ukranian dude?

IP theft, customer demand, national security concerns, the Ukrainian dude can only do so much. There's a reason why innovation comes out of SF, NYC, HTX (oil), and Austin. You can't teach that to those third world mongoloids even if you skull fuck them. 

All these niggas preach about outsourcing jobs, they might as well start outsourcing their customers instead of having Americans buy their products. If anything, those execs should be hung from a wall.

The market speaks, and it's willing to pay a lot of money for good engineers.

I hope you're right. We'll know a lot more after the new administration settles in. In the meantime in NYC.

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W74ocWJny28&t=2s
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#47
(10-17-2020, 12:51 AM)SunnyFL Wrote: I'm looking at getting into stuff like Fundrise or Cadre, which are two RE investing platforms (like crowdfunding etc.)

That is an awesome idea and I hope more guys go this route instead of purchasing actual properties.  Fundrise and Cadre are two of the better known platforms, but there are so many more.  The biggest downside to them is the fact that they pay dividends quarterly.  I tend to opt for platforms that pay monthly.  

This page is a great resource:

https://www.therealestatecrowdfundingreview.com/
Have you ever noticed it is your haters who obsessively read your every post, comment on them with the most emotion, and expend so much energy desperately trying to engage you?  It's because haters are your greatest, most loyal, and dedicated fans; they just have not come to terms with it yet.  Enjoy them because they are the surest sign that you're slaying it in life!  Big Grin
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#48
(11-16-2020, 08:56 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: This page is a great resource:

https://www.therealestatecrowdfundingreview.com/

I agree.  That's why I posted this site about six months ago, which you dismissed at the time as me fomenting "irrational fears" about the ponzi scheme you recommended.

Word to the wise: take any investment advice from Contrarian Expatriate with a grain of salt.  He recommended Cardone Capital.  Just take a quick look at this video, and it will tell you all you need to know about that.

The reality is that there are many bigger potential downsides to investing in specific real estate crowdfunding sites besides getting paid quarterly vs. monthly.  It is especially challenging in the current environment as competition for deals has increased.  Doing due diligence and choosing your investments carefully in this asset class has never been more important.

Don't even listen to me, listen to Ian who runs therealestatecrowdfundingreview.com, and knows what the hell he's talking about.
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