Corona: data over drama
#1
Let's share some real information guys on this virus. All my social media accounts are spammed with drama and memes, so sometimes it's good to look at it from a rational point of view and see what the data really says. 

I found this article to be amazing and presenting a very clear image:
https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evi...4StzoS0MQY

It answered many questions I previously had on how it spreads, what are the odds, what factors mitigate spreading, how long it the virus lives on surfaces and so on. Also some solid recommendations on how to get over this crisis and when we can expect improvement to be seen.

If you have other data or science driven sources, feel free to share.
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#2
Cobra's post over at Roosh is very good:

https://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-74750...pid2070993

He shares my thoughts that there is something fishy about all this. And I liked his take that "not even right wingers wont risk their reputation". Thankfully, I like to think a lot of us are neither left or right wing America politic wise, but we are critical thinkers that don't fall to what a politician or group tells us without connecting the dots ourselves.

I am in the camp of this being a hoax. I seen us go through similar conditions with past flus and yet social media was not as strong as it is now. So I think this is just a big social test to see how well we comply or listen to global broadcasts.
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#3
I thought the official name was Sars-Cov-2 and not Corona Virus? It beats me why the media declares it Corona.

Travesty posted up the link to someone predicting this fallout from 4chan. That's the closest I got to "data". Someone with connections to health authorities and finance predicted China would lie about this, the WHO would be slow to react to this, Italy would be the epicenter of all this and the gravest prediction that may come true is there's a possibility that the virus can mutate with potential to kill within Brazilian bats. I think we will soon find out if this was much ado about nothing or it will come in waves with different strains. I think we can all agree the economy is damaged at the short term at the very least.

Various people like John Mark, Black Pigeon Speaks, and Tim Pool are saying this is the end of globalism. You then have the crazy no life losers like LDN spouting off hot air.

Here in Illinois our governor declared a stay at home order. I initially thought it meant nobody was allowed to leave their homes but all that meant was you can't leave unless for essential business. There's also reports of Baltimore being patrolled by the military.

I'm with Manbeline...I think it's a hoax but we might find out soon enough if this is Spanish Flu 2.
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#4
Calling this a hoax is exactly the opposite of what Rottenapples is talking about, I believe. The other day I browsed the thread over at rvf. I haven’t been there in months. What a bunch of retarded faggots. It’s almost unbelievable what’s happened to that forum. It used to be a wealth of truth!

There’s a bad flu sweeping across the world.
Most who get it experience mild symptoms, similar to the regular flu or a cold.
It may kill the very old or people with compromised immune systems/ underlying conditions.
The governments are taking drastic measures to try and avoid overwhelming the health care and support systems.

That is ALL that’s happening.
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#5
(03-21-2020, 04:43 PM)Rottenapple Wrote: Let's share some real information guys on this virus. All my social media accounts are spammed with drama and memes, so sometimes it's good to look at it from a rational point of view and see what the data really says. 

I found this article to be amazing and presenting a very clear image:
https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evi...4StzoS0MQY

It answered many questions I previously had on how it spreads, what are the odds, what factors mitigate spreading, how long it the virus lives on surfaces and so on. Also some solid recommendations on how to get over this crisis and when we can expect improvement to be seen.

If you have other data or science driven sources, feel free to share.

You deserve ten reps for posting this. I went to the trouble of reading the entire thing. Somebody is going to write a detailed rebuttal to this and it won't be me. Two things stand out. Based on the cruise ship evidence it appears that large crowds in a contained environment aren't the smartest thing these days. The author says as much. Regarding the death rates. The data in this article is disingenuous at best. It is extremely difficult to get a handle on the most accurate death rates. Totaling total cases and matching them up with deaths to date will not give anything close to an accurate count. Different countries are tabulating their cases in different ways. Here is an example. The latest USA data shows 22738 cases with 288 resulting in death, indicating a fatality rate of 1.27%. However this site   https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ gives a death rate of 63%, preposterous for sure as only 171 cases in the US are listed as "recovered." Hence the 288/171 ratio to deaths vs recovered computes to a 63% death rate. So either the US is slow to report those "recovered" or sick people here are very slow to get better or die. The point I'm trying to make is that it is still way too early to determine what percentage of people are getting very sick and what the true death rate is. In an otherwise highly detailed well written essay with all the bells and whistles this is a major omission.

I looked up the author. A young techie from Silicon Valley who is a staunch I'd say Republican with a strong Libertarian streak. Which makes him intellectually brave. I would place him on the one end of the spectrum regarding this world crisis. Unfortunately those on the other end of the spectrum are controlling both the information and the agenda. Yes we are in the process of ruining not only our own but the entire world economy. Enter Big Brother as never before and therefore I totally understand the conspiracy theories out there. Nobody trusts authority anymore with plenty of good reasons not to. 

Flu epidemics don't always cool down greatly in the heat of the summer. IIRC correctly Swine Flu did not do that in 2009, although it was more prevalent in the colder months. In the world wide influenza of 1918/19 it slowed down in the summer and came back with its biggest vengeance in the autumn/winter of 1918/19. I wish I could channel my gone but not forgotten maternal grandmother who survived the so called Spanish flu of a century ago. She told me detailed stories that were burned into her being during that difficult time.

I'm somewhere in the middle. I'm not totally with the author you linked, Aaron Ginn but also realize that these extreme measures being put forth today will be difficult to walk back when the virus recedes. All I can tell you is that I first became aware of this early in this winter and told some people close to me to watch out, I think this is going to get bad. My opinion was not well received. I am well known as an eccentric and I think I was coming across as a crank to those near me. Whether it's mainly due to hysteria or the virus this thing still has a ways to go. As for me I take all the stats now with a grain of salt. I do know that in some countries it has reached levels of catastrophe. Tell an Italian resident of Lombardy that this is no big deal.

One last thing. The author mentions the tiny island nation of Iceland. They have an infection rate worse than Italy as of today. The author is correct in mentioning that you should look at the infection rate rather than just the raw numbers.
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#6
(03-21-2020, 05:54 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: I thought the official name was Sars-Cov-2 and not Corona Virus? It beats me why the media declares it Corona.

Its a catchy name. Everyone knows the word Corona because of the beer so it sticks in your head just like hurricane names.

(03-21-2020, 06:36 PM)Smash Wrote: There’s a bad flu sweeping across the world.
Most who get it experience mild symptoms, similar to the regular flu or a cold.
It may kill the very old or people with compromised immune systems/ underlying conditions.
The governments are taking drastic measures to try and avoid overwhelming the health care and support systems.

That is ALL that’s happening.

Much more is happening. This is a plot to tank the global economy, cover the news with it and keep the Democratic candidates out of the news, and make the current US president look bad. This summer will be primetime for a flurry of mass shootings due to the lack of jobs and resources (also convenient) so be careful out in public.

In light of this forum having a positive vibe: After things settle in April this will be a perfect time to travel. Greaseball backpackers will probably be minimal, costs will be down and local girls DTF. I'm thinking of a Thailand dive trip during Songkran.
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#7
I have followed @AndyBiotech on twitter for 4 years now and he's one of the best scientific minds out there (despite being anonymous). He covers biotech companies and clinical data, but he's been following COVID-19 since January. Good commentary that's usually straight to the point. One example of a tweet on Italy recently and how to put the death rate in context.

   

Scientific paper published in Annals of Internal Medicine in early March showed that the median incubation period for patients with identifiable exposure to the virus was 5.1 days, with 97.5% of patients showing symptoms within 11.5 days. Based on 181 patients outside of Hubei province.

Link here: https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/27628...y-reported

Very important to know given all of the misinformation out there that keeps implying that 14 days is the "normal" time to start show symptoms. 14 days seems like the worst-case scenario.
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#8
(03-21-2020, 04:43 PM)Rottenapple Wrote: Let's share some real information guys on this virus. All my social media accounts are spammed with drama and memes, so sometimes it's good to look at it from a rational point of view and see what the data really says. 
I found this article to be amazing and presenting a very clear image:
https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evi...4StzoS0MQY

Thats a great article, thanks. Its hard to find good reading out there that isn't part of the media fear frenzy. One part of the article that stuck out to me, and that I have seen mentioned elsewhere, is this:

Quote:The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.

Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%).

This is the only mortality rate that is likely in any way accurate - because everyone was tested on the ship. As opposed to testing in Italy or elsewhere where the mortality rate seems sky high, because only people who're sick enough to get tested are getting tested.

And its also worth bearing in mind that the average age of the people on-board was 58 - much, much higher than in a normal country. So the mortality rate is likely higher than in country-wide population with a younger average age range.

For reference, the 'normal' seasonal flu has a death rate of 0.1%. So according to the above this would be at absolute worst about 6 times as bad, but possibly less, and likely about comparable.

I think after a month of lockdown its going to start becoming apparent to policy makers that the economic costs of this can far outstrip the infection costs in terms of lives lost/destroyed, and we'll see a complete turn around in the media narrative. It'll start to become "we've done everything we could do, now lets focus on rebuilding society" - though with increased emphasis on hand cleaning and encouragement of elderly (70+) quarantine.
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#9
As much as I think hes nuts I am tuning into Roosh's podcast and he is making some good points.
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#10
The Diamond Princess cruise ship final numbers are still unknown, so far of 712 infected, 8 have died, 551 have recovered, and 12 remain in serious condition. Obviously if you aren't in an advanced country like Japan, or you're in an advanced country where the medical system is overwhelmed, and don't have advanced medical care such as respirators, fewer will recover (https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200322_05/)

Other news, human to dog transmission confirmed. And we suspect this virus is a zoonoses that originated in bats. So I don't see why people insist it isn't passed through dogs. In Wuhan they were killing many dogs. This virus is just so out of control with so little known about it.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/19/second-dog...ronavirus/
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#11
This is not a hoax, this was an extremely likely occurrence. The extent that people do not care about funding this field is now represented as deferred cost.

Here's a number:

Some receptionist at a law firm is making more than a genetics post-doc, and that post-doc is only in the field because men have left it to die.

All the numbers are incorrect because of the genetic drift, let alone different measures, at least in the United States. No one knows.

It's possible the CCP released it because they knew the US would not be prepared for it, but that's brutal collateral damage from both a PR and economic perspective.
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#12
Fucking hell. Hoaxers back to RVF please.
lmk if you have any questions man
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#13
What I wanna know is - where's the news about Southern Italy and Sicily?

Supposedly the virus has ravaged the North of the country but has somehow miraculously spared the south?
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#14
(03-22-2020, 06:51 AM)TigerMandingo Wrote: What I wanna know is - where's the news about Southern Italy and Sicily?

Supposedly the virus has ravaged the North of the country but has somehow miraculously spared the south?

The virus seems to be hitting the economic hotspots first, no doubt due to the higher level of international air travel to such destinations. I believe in Italy the worst outbreak is centered near Milan. The southern part of Italy and Sicily are much poorer areas, geographically more isolated, and so have escaped the brunt of the outbreak so far.
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#15
(03-22-2020, 03:53 PM)Mister Happy Wrote:
(03-22-2020, 06:51 AM)TigerMandingo Wrote: What I wanna know is - where's the news about Southern Italy and Sicily?

Supposedly the virus has ravaged the North of the country but has somehow miraculously spared the south?

The virus seems to be hitting the economic hotspots first, no doubt due to the higher level of international air travel to such destinations. I believe in Italy the worst outbreak is centered near Milan. The southern part of Italy and Sicily are much poorer areas, geographically more isolated, and so have escaped the brunt of the outbreak so far.

This should help. https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORO...00B5K6421/
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#16
There are indeed still so many unknowns which complicate policy decisions at the moment. This article also details that further: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fi...tNc53rHrAI

In that sense, it seems the gap between scientists and policymakers is too big, they can't seem to communicate or translate their findings in a proper way. That and proper scientific research has probably been dealing with a lack of funding for a long time. Policymakers then respond based on emotion and media trends instead of proper research and advice, and the advice they do receive from scientists is probably not taking into account any possible damage of economic measures on a societal scale. Not enough people are able to see the bigger picture and understand several disciplinary fields since everyone is raised to be a specialist. The politician doesn't know anything about interpreting medical data, the scientists don't know anything about economics, the data scientists are trying to make sense of it all (as in the original article), but they get discredited because they are no experts, etc.
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#17
So that medium article in the OP seems to have been censored by medium. Visiting the page is now showing up this message:

Quote:410
This post is under investigation or was found in violation of the Medium Rules.
There are thousands of stories to read on Medium. Visit our homepage
to find one that’s right for you.

I'd be very curious to hear why, because it seemed fairly legit to me. It was citing lots of WHO / UN etc statistics, and making fairly reasonable conclusions. It didn't offer any insane conspiracy theories like "ITS ALL A DEMOCRAT PARTY HOAX" like you'd hear on Fox News.
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#18
Yeah I saw that. Luckily I saved a copy on MS Word (I had it open in a previous tab), happy to send to anybody who needs it. Ridiculous.

The new article making the rounds on Medium now is the one here. I think it has far more fear-mongering in it and a lot of it is based on one paper from Imperial College London. However, if you scroll to about the halfway point of the article, it does explain how it is possible to essentially contain the disease with the measures we are doing now (heavy testing + social distancing).

Positive note: The US tested 45,000 people yesterday, by far the most in the world. Hoping that testing capability continues to ramp up.
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#19
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-1...r-hysteria
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#20
From what I can see data wise:

340 Americans dead from COVID-19 (I'm not calling it the bullshit Coronavirus anymore - its a media drummed up name).

36,560 Americans die in motor vehicle accidents annually. That puts us at 1 COVID death per 930 accident deaths.

300,000 Americans die annually from obesity. That puts us at 1 COVID death per 11,000 fatasses.
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