The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics)
I bought some more BTC yesterday JJG. Everybody should be bracing for a financial meltdown. Have also stocked up on dry goods and will be opening up a new credit card tomorrow. Hyper inflation will devalue cash. It still won't hurt to have some cash on hand if an event caused a bank run. Today I admitted to people I know that I own BTC. Use common sense, don't walk around advertising that you have resources.

Best case scenario I look stupid, worst case scenario a lot of us are in deep shit. There's already reports of looting, 3 million filling out unemployment, and police standing down.
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(03-26-2020, 09:35 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: I bought some more BTC yesterday JJG. Everybody should be bracing for a financial meltdown. Have also stocked up on dry goods and will be opening up a new credit card tomorrow. Hyper inflation will devalue cash. It still won't hurt to have some cash on hand if an event caused a bank run. Today I admitted to people I know that I own BTC. Use common sense, don't walk around advertising that you have resources.

Best case scenario I look stupid, worst case scenario a lot of us are in deep shit. There's already reports of looting, 3 million filling out unemployment, and police standing down.

In the very short term, the dollar is gaining in value so much because people dump out of various other assets in order to avoid their crash, and even though most equities are green in the past few days, with 5-10% price increases per day, there still may be some questions regarding whether the stimulus money is going to be enough to prop matters up, while businesses are still shut down and many people are not working and a lot of businesses that are likely to get bail outs are getting rewarded for irresponsible past behavior so it might be questionable whether their getting money is going to be enough to reverse a kind of current downtrend.

So, yeah, I am not really disagreeing with you overall, and ultimately the extent to which bitcoin is NOT correlated or even if it is somewhat anti-correlated remains a question that will likely be seen with the passage of time.  Of course, we have some other sound money principles (such as the hardcoded halvening) that are NOT getting changed and is largely on course to happen in less than two months.  

There still can be decent amount of FUD spreading with bitcoin and even purposeful dumping that could take some time to play out regarding seeing whether it is more profitable to stay in bitcoin for several years, versus investing in other assets.

I do let some people, in real life, know my bitcoin interests without necessarily letting them know too many specifics about my holdings, and surely many people in real life are not going to engage in nefarious activities to rob you of your coins, but at the same time, you don't necessarily want to leave your passwords on your desk, either... so surely the amount of personal OPsec will vary from guy to guy, and some cautionary measures are likely to be a prudent course of action... including frequently, you will NOT provide as much information to someone who you know to be a gossiper, because the lack of OPsec or discretion of those kinds of people can sometimes screw up your own OPsec.

By the way, I do have buy plans and outstanding buy orders for BTC dips to decently low levels, even sub $3k, but I am hoping that we do not experience sub $5k again.. even though surely there are no guarantees regarding price drags and dumpenings that can occur in the short term and based on seemingly shitty short term macro circumstances.
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(03-26-2020, 10:43 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(03-26-2020, 09:35 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: I bought some more BTC yesterday JJG. Everybody should be bracing for a financial meltdown. Have also stocked up on dry goods and will be opening up a new credit card tomorrow. Hyper inflation will devalue cash. It still won't hurt to have some cash on hand if an event caused a bank run. Today I admitted to people I know that I own BTC. Use common sense, don't walk around advertising that you have resources.

Best case scenario I look stupid, worst case scenario a lot of us are in deep shit. There's already reports of looting, 3 million filling out unemployment, and police standing down.

In the very short term, the dollar is gaining in value so much because people dump out of various other assets in order to avoid their crash, and even though most equities are green in the past few days, with 5-10% price increases per day, there still may be some questions regarding whether the stimulus money is going to be enough to prop matters up, while businesses are still shut down and many people are not working and a lot of businesses that are likely to get bail outs are getting rewarded for irresponsible past behavior so it might be questionable whether their getting money is going to be enough to reverse a kind of current downtrend.

So, yeah, I am not really disagreeing with you overall, and ultimately the extent to which bitcoin is NOT correlated or even if it is somewhat anti-correlated remains a question that will likely be seen with the passage of time.  Of course, we have some other sound money principles (such as the hardcoded halvening) that are NOT getting changed and is largely on course to happen in less than two months.  

There still can be decent amount of FUD spreading with bitcoin and even purposeful dumping that could take some time to play out regarding seeing whether it is more profitable to stay in bitcoin for several years, versus investing in other assets.

I do let some people, in real life, know my bitcoin interests without necessarily letting them know too many specifics about my holdings, and surely many people in real life are not going to engage in nefarious activities to rob you of your coins, but at the same time, you don't necessarily want to leave your passwords on your desk, either... so surely the amount of personal OPsec will vary from guy to guy, and some cautionary measures are likely to be a prudent course of action... including frequently, you will NOT provide as much information to someone who you know to be a gossiper, because the lack of OPsec or discretion of those kinds of people can sometimes screw up your own OPsec.

By the way, I do have buy plans and outstanding buy orders for BTC dips to decently low levels, even sub $3k, but I am hoping that we do not experience sub $5k again.. even though surely there are no guarantees regarding price drags and dumpenings that can occur in the short term and based on seemingly shitty short term macro circumstances.

As a supplement to my earlier response, I was thinking that I should have asked you a few questions regarding what you are doing now in terms of your reallocating or injecting new money or a combination of both, ChicagoFire.

Do you feel that you have already established your BTC position and you are buying on dips or DCAing with an attempt to buy BTC on dips?  Are you investing in other assets, too?  

Sometimes it can become a bit crazy to figure out how much to allocate to each asset when you are still establishing positions and DCA'ing in, versus if you are reallocating, which might also end up screwing you if you allocate too much on one asset and cause yourself to be thin on something else (whether an asset or the dollar).  

Each of us only has so many dollars during times like this, and surely some revenue sources could either be drying up or perceived to be on the edge of drying up if we project them into the future.  Some businesses are still doing well, such as Amazon and Costco (so far) even though other businesses are getting affected, but even Amazon had some large number of employees who had gotten infected, even though, from my understanding, many of their employees do not tend to have benefits if they do end up getting sick.... 

Even this chart of bitcon as a business... its hashrate, shows that bitcoin hashrate has been dropping off considerably over the past couple of months and maybe even more since the beginning of March. Seems kind of weird to consider either attribution, and even to suggest that bitcoin might NOT be correlated to overall markets when hashrate seems to correlate somewhat with the market crash.. at least on the short term.  We also get difficulty adjustments in bitcoin too, so sometimes a dropping of the hashrate will merely allow those who are mining to stay profitable, and I suppose if the hashrate shoots up during lower BTC prices or more difficult times for miners, then that could be a way to weed out some less efficient miners, too.

Here's a link to a recent article that continues to argue that bitcoin is in a class by itself, and in that regard, I am not sure if the article is telling us anything that we did not already know.
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Here's a link to a tweet thread and an article that kind of overviews some of the regrouping that seems to be taking place, and may well add up quite decently for a BTC pumpening in late 2020.  Who knows for sure, but we will see.



https://twitter.com/dan_pantera/status/1...8317878272


https://medium.com/@PanteraCapital/crypt...73af3aaaf7

Interesting quote from the article:

>>>>
IMPACT ON CRYPTO

Quote:Bitcoin was born in a financial crisis. It will come of age in this one.

......................................

The price of bitcoin may set a new record in the next twelve months. It’s not going to happen overnight. My best guess is that it will take institutional investors 2–3 months to triage their current portfolio issues. Another 3–6 months to research new opportunities like distressed debt, special situations, crypto, etc. Then, as they begin making allocations, those markets will really begin to rise.<<<<<<
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Here's a tweet thread that focuses on current status of bitcoin's hashing rate.

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/statu...9616829441

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JJG

BTC is all I'm buying at the moment. I will sound like a broken record but I do have cash as well as have dry goods.

I agree with your general sentiment, just stay flexible. Corona Virus has suddenly thrown wrenches into any plan you or anyone else may have laid out. It doesn't mean live day by day but realize planning for 5 years may require several contingencies and ignoring the news like I previously did may not be feasible.
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(03-27-2020, 09:05 AM)ChicagoFire Wrote: JJG

BTC is all I'm buying at the moment. I will sound like a broken record but I do have cash as well as have dry goods.

In recent times, I am neither buying nor moving around any other assets, either. My BTC plan has a built in methodology of buying on the way down and selling on the way up, so I suppose in some sense what I am doing on any kind of active basis might be similar to you in terms of BTC is the only one that I am buying, and it is a kind of trade off between the extent of being in dollars versus being in BTC.

I have some investments that do produce a regular and fairly consistent revenue stream, and I had already set them up in that way many years ago.

I have a 401k that is just riding the market waves, and I just logged in to look at how it had been fairing during these troubling times, and really it has only been fluctuating between down levels of 10% and 15%, so I am not feeling like I am even getting killed in those allocations, yet. Maybe it is the way that I have it set up that has some levels of mixing of government bonds, fixed income and various stock indexes?

Though I am not adding to it, I am NOT planning to withdraw from any of my 401k investments for quite a long time, so there is that kind of letting it ride component.

I don't really consider my timeline to be long anymore, so I surely could start withdrawing more from any of my investments, and I believe that there is a sufficient amount of profit cushion in there that I have already accounted for bottoms, or even being able to withdraw if they drop down 50%. Of course, it is preferable to make withdrawals when they are up, if withdrawals are anticipated.

If you are not even thinking about any likelihood of withdrawal for many years, then you just keep injecting into the various systems, of course, if one or another system way the hell out performs others, then at that point withdrawing some from there or reallocating might be a great idea, but still likely it seems less of a prudent idea to be engaging in vast withdrawal until the overall package of investments have reached a seemingly sufficient high level of income generating potential......


(03-27-2020, 09:05 AM)ChicagoFire Wrote: I agree with your general sentiment, just stay flexible. Corona Virus has suddenly thrown wrenches into any plan you or anyone else may have laid out.

Let's say for example, you have a goal to be able to live off of $6k per month of passive income, so we realize that at a 4% per year withdrawal rate, you would have to have $2million in capital built up in order to be able to generate $6k on a 4% per year withdrawal rate. If you are really nervous about meeting the sufficient level, then you might not pull the fuck you lever until you have reached $4million or something like that because you want to have a sufficient cushion. Of course, if you pull the fuck you lever at $2million, and you think that you have $6k per month of passive income, then if your capital is reduced by half, all of a sudden you can only withdraw $3k per month without risking unduly depleting your principle. At some point, you will be sufficiently old and maybe don't really care if you are depleting your principle because maybe you can kind of anticipate your timeline - and the level of your expenses.


(03-27-2020, 09:05 AM)ChicagoFire Wrote: It doesn't mean live day by day but realize planning for 5 years may require several contingencies and ignoring the news like I previously did may not be feasible.

Of course, if you are in revenue generating years of your life, then surely you might be considering ways to keep on generating revenue, and the virus situation and the shut down of a multitude of jobs, then could create squeezes on your own revenue generating potential, including if other people are not working, they may be attempting to get into your line of work and screwing up your abilities to generate income from your already established skills or specialty area.
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Here's a nice two part article from Giacomo Zucco that talks about bitcoin's privacy that came out in the past week.  Lots of good stuff in there.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/a-t...whitepaper

Quote:

>>>>>
"In Part One of this treatise, we examined the fundamental relationship between Bitcoin and privacy by going back to the beginning with the whitepaper. In spite of some excellent privacy preserving options  that have been available to users since those early days, we seem to have taken a few wrong turns. But to fix it, in order to make Bitcoin’s privacy “great again,” we must be able to distinguish between real privacy and red herrings that can only lead us further off the path."
<<<<<<



https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/a-t...d-herrings


Another quote:

>>>>>>>
"Decentralized Exchanges
Another hope comes from the idea of decentralized exchanges (DEXes). So far, they suffer from liquidity limitations and their security remains tricky: While the Bitcoin “leg” of any trade can be easily trust-minimized, the fiat leg remains ultimately trust-based, making complex and expensive escrow mechanisms necessary. (In turn, escrow mechanisms tend to prove very difficult to decentralize effectively.)
Your privacy is in your hands — just keep calm and be diligent. Don’t submit to dangerous privacy violations. Don’t reuse addresses. Use CoinJoin. Close your shutters when you’re at home. Pull the shower curtains when you’re naked. Put a lock on your personal journal. Use HTTPS when surfing the web.
In the end, Bitcoin fixes this."
<<<<<<<
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Here's looking at the bitcoin halvening dynamics from another angle, which is largely showing the price drawdowns before the halvening... Interesting kind of overlap, and sure some variance, too.

https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/124...0434948096
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Here's a tweet of some bitcoin humor.... 


at least it made me smile.

https://twitter.com/hodlonaut/status/124...86529?s=21

Quote:

>>>>>
"If authoritarians could, they would implement martial law in Bitcoin and implement emergency big block measures, and change 21M into brrrr.

Thank you Bitcoin, for being the one constant in the world. The one thing they can't fuck with.

Bitcoin gives me hope!"

<<<<<<
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Gold bugs, including Peter Schiff have been gloating a lot in recent times, and they are spouting out some nonsense regarding how well gold is doing and making little seemingly selective digs at bitcoin.

if we zoom out a bit, we will see that bitcoin has done quite well in comparison to gold.. even zooming out 7 years, or so.. 


https://twitter.com/BitcoinMemeHub/statu...1768552454


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It appears that a bit more than 50 bitcoin developers receive funding from about 14 organizations.


[Image: chart-2.png]

There's some additional discussion about developers in the linked article:

https://blog.bitmex.com/who-funds-bitcoin-development/
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Here's another way to possibly get scammed out of some bitcoin.  Apparently there are fake QR-code generators out there.

[/url][url=https://cointelegraph.com/news/network-of-fake-bitcoin-qr-code-generators-stole-45-000-in-march]https://cointelegraph.com/news/network-o...0-in-march

Here's a quote from the article:

>>>>>>
"At least nine fake Bitcoin-to-QR code generators have been spotted in recent weeks, with security researcher, Harry Denley, first tweeting that he had identified two domains hosting fake QR code applications on March 22.
Denley later identified seven other domains sharing the same interface — suggesting that they are all created by the same developer.

Fake Bitcoin QR code generators steal over 7 BTC
The malicious programs promise to convert a user’s Bitcoin address into a QR code, claiming to eliminate the risk of the user losing their funds as a result of typos when entering or sharing their address — a service offered by every popular block explorer and most mobile wallet applications.
However, the QR code generated by the programs is always the same address — diverting the victims’ funds to the malicious program’s developers. The supposed QR generators correspond to five different wallets, which have absorbed more than seven BTC, likely from the apps’ victims. 
The malicious websites are 
bitcoin-barcode-generator.com, 
bitcoinaddresstoqrcode.com, 
bitcoins-qr-code.com, 
btc-to-qr.com, 
create-bitcoin-qr-code.com, 
free-bitcoin-qr-codes.com, 
freebitcoinqrcodes.com, 
qr-code-bitcoin.com, and 
qrcodebtc.com."
<<<<<<<
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Below is a link to a nice article from a few days ago that largely hits upon bitcoin basics.


Bitcoin HODLERS Have an Essential Advantage Over Bitcoin Traders

You must absolutely choose to adopt the right strategy with Bitcoin.




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In my opinion the macro narrative for BTC could not be any better....

-Fed printing trillions/interest rates at zero or below (globally)

-Halving in May (supply shock) at the same time as QE (the contrast)

-Helicopter money for the masses (although most won't be driving that into BTC, some will)

-Price of Oil almost under $20-->some of these oil companies will start to see BTC mining as a profitable/necessary venture as oil is low.

-FDIC posting ad telling people not to withdraw from their banks


You couldn't write it better. This is why Bitcoin was made.

As to BTC price... in my opinion these levels and below are gifts from God.

The cost of production (see below) is right at these levels and will increase significantly in May...that is value investing if I've ever seen it. People are sleeping on the value of owning hard assets like bitcoin in this fragile shit show of a debt based system.

https://www.newsbtc.com/2020/03/16/bitco...ff-buying/

The public is not interested in crypto at all right now...after the latest shakeout and if prices go lower congratulations are in order...the diehard believers are the ones that remain.

Keep HODLing.
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Monthly/quarterly update by  Dunkelheit667 not looking the greatest, but we did kind of get off to a strong start of the year, and last year overall had closed up 90%. so there is that.

[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FZ32ndLR.p...0GTcvZjuOQ]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.529840
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Here's a nice recent bullish article that could help to make some guys feel better during these seemingly uncertain times, including the value of patience... that is at least if you have some meaningful stake in bitcoin.

Now if you do not have any stake in bitcoin, then that might be another story.   Tongue

https://www.coindesk.com/how-financial-m...he-halving
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Bitcoin shows signs of weakness as death cross takes hold!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-s...03790.html
Have you ever noticed it is your haters who obsessively read your every post, comment on them with the most emotion, and expend so much energy desperately trying to engage you?  It's because haters are your greatest, most loyal, and dedicated fans; they just have not come to terms with it yet.  Enjoy them because they are the surest sign that you're slaying it in life!  Big Grin
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(04-02-2020, 05:23 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: Bitcoin shows signs of weakness as death cross takes hold!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-s...03790.html


Gosh that article seems to have a bit of down hopium, even though it is suggesting that we may be seeing consolidation for the remainder of the week, whatever the fuck that means?

I am not sure if it would be accurate to suggest that bitcoin is failing to break up, but I suppose that anything can be asserted in a kind of wishing for down waffling way, which is difficult also to bet against bitcoin in a likely ongoing bull market (yes opinions likely vary, but I don't even believe that there is conclusive evidence that BTC has been knocked out of the bull market that started in April 2019, yet).

Of course, you, contrarian, are still likely waiting for $2k-ish even though I had seen some quasi-sympathetic statements in the direction of bitcoin coming out of your keyboard, in recent times...  Tongue Tongue Tongue

By the way, we had some lower $6k challenges, and then we also had a recent move up to $6,766 within the past 6 hours, and there has been a correction back down to $6,600-ish, which is hardly even any kind of short-term giving up upon testing resistance in the $6,766 range and beyond or even getting back to $7,100 resistance testing from a bit over a week ago.

So, yeah, we have back and forth and maybe even some questioning about how these various short-term BTC price dynamic matters play out in terms of what is happening in the macro environment too... Even though honey badger, king daddy bitcoin likely gives less than two shits about some of the various macro matters, but at the same time, in the short term, these kinds of dynamics can be both manipulated and played upon in surprising ways that are NOT just ending up in ongoing short term consolidation but instead possible breakouts that happen because it does not take a lot of capital to move BTC in either price direction if some BIGGER players want to attempt to use BTC as their little short-term play thing.
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(04-02-2020, 05:45 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(04-02-2020, 05:23 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: Bitcoin shows signs of weakness as death cross takes hold!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-s...03790.html

By the way, we had some lower $6k challenges, and then we also had a recent move up to $6,766 within the past 6 hours, and there has been a correction back down to $6,600-ish....
Keep in mind that a correction means down 10% from its all time highs (as opposed to a bear market which means down 20% or more from the highs).  Bitcoin is still well within correction territory and may very well still be in bear territory.  Neither is anything to be giddy about.
Have you ever noticed it is your haters who obsessively read your every post, comment on them with the most emotion, and expend so much energy desperately trying to engage you?  It's because haters are your greatest, most loyal, and dedicated fans; they just have not come to terms with it yet.  Enjoy them because they are the surest sign that you're slaying it in life!  Big Grin
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