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The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Printable Version

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RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 07-22-2019

(07-20-2019, 04:19 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: BAKKT is a physically settled daily futures product for institutional investors into bitcoin and ethereum.

Last year Bakkt had announced that it was delaying its launch, and then earlier this year it announced that it was launching a test platform on July 22, and now it is announcing that its real product is going to launch within this quarter, sometime after its July 22 launching of its test platform

https://twitter.com/fundstratQuant/status/1152321087360917504

It does seem to be interesting to attempt to keep our eyes on this BAKKT testing and likely launch that will be coming within about the next two months, according to their ongoing representations of their plans... 

So, yeah, the testing seems to have begun today.

https://www.ccn.com/news/bakkts-moonshot-bitcoin-platform-begin-testing-today/2019/07/22/

We should also attempt to see if there is any effect on the price.  One of the more widespread theories would be that something like this could create some additional significant and meaningful pressures on Bitcoin's supply-side, which would thereby cause BTC's price to go up.  However, sometimes, we can also experience some purposeful manipulation around an actual launch, which would mean down before up, with thoughts that the "down" part is a kind of fake, and an attempt to shake some weak hands/dumb money... 

I certainly would NOT assert to have any strong feelings either way regarding the one factor of this kind of a BAKKT launch, but we have been hearing quite a lot (if true) that more and more institutions seem to be getting into bitcoin, perhaps on the down low... but at the same time, we have our upcoming halvening in May 2020.  Even though the last two halvenings have experienced the most exponential portions of their price bubbles 6-18 months after the actual halvenings, there are some theories that the effects of halvenings are becoming more understood, which could cause a kind of front-running of a possible future BTC price bubble.  I don't proclaim to have any kind of strong hypotheses about those things either, but merely just mentioning what seem to be decently well-reasoned theories regarding directions that our near-term BTC price future could play out.

TLDR:  hang on boys.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 07-22-2019

(07-21-2019, 04:17 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(07-21-2019, 03:55 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(07-17-2019, 05:08 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: Here's a hilarious post of an interview with U.S Republican congressman  Patrick McHenry, saying:

"Even the Chinese with their firewall and their extreme intervention in society could not kill #bitcoin.....You can't kill bitcoin"

https://twitter.com/MediumSqueeze/status/1151470299327733760

He also says that even though you cannot kill bitcoin, you can do a variety of things in terms of regulation regarding a number of reiterations of bitcoin that are trying to mimic bitcoin (such as facebook coin).

China can't stop VPNs either. Cypherpunks already won.

I agree with you that we have a decent amount of solidness in the foundations of bitcoin, and there have been some locations, such as China that have attempted fairly strong measures to control bitcoin, but then they have been left with both a kind of wack-a-mole situation and they also kind of got left out of a decent part of the 2017 BTC pump with some of their bigger BTC investors having their funds locked up on exchanges while china regulars were attempting to figure out what to do in terms of trying to keep track of bitcoin related funds and also seemingly trying to keep the bitcoin from growing further; however, we saw what happened 2017, the BTC price shot up throughout the whole without hardly giving any shits at all about whatever china was attempting to do in regards to trying to control bitcoin in their country.  Likely some of those BIGGER chinese BTC holders, who were not able to bypass Chinese attempts at controls, and who got screwed in the whole process of having their funds locked up were not very happy with chinese officials either.
Regarding your earlier reference to Cypherpunks, I came accross what seems to be a decent, but long, background article (linked below) regarding several of the back and forth battles that various Cypherpunks entertained in the 80s and 90s, which seems to provide some of the foundational thinking behind bitcoin, even though I, personally, don't proclaim to be too in tune with being able to sort through the accuracy of some of the factual representations or if any material and significant points are being left out of the article's discussion of that period.

http://projects.csmonitor.com/cypherpunk


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 07-22-2019

The below-linked article talks about Barry Silbert's bullish prediction about bitcoin.

https://bitcoinist.com/trillions-of-dollars-could-flow-into-bitcoin-over-next-25-years-grayscale/

Of course, Barry Silbert is a manager of Grayscale investments, which is also the manger of the GBTC fund, which tends to run a decent premium over regular bitcoin prices.  Recently, Grayscale had run a "drop gold" campaign, and so surely take their representations with a grain of salt - yet he is asserting that americans of boomers generation and earlier have $68 trillion of value that is invested in various products, including gold and that the new generation is NOT likely going to be investing in gold, but instead into bitcoin.   

Surely, we have to see how those kinds of projections play out in the coming years.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 07-23-2019

Here's a nice little article from yesterday that points out that bitcoin's current hash rate is 8 times more than it was when bitcoin's price was at $20k.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-network-now-8-times-more-powerful-than-it-was-at-20k-price

Surely, capital has been flowing into bitcoin mining, and really has been for the longest time.  Ever since I have been in bitcoin, there has been ongoing bullish news about bitcoin's hash rate, which continues to amaze on an ongoing basis.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 07-23-2019

Here's an interesting article from today that includes a decent discussion  of BTC supply, including its untouched supply... meaning some of the BTC are not moving for relatively long periods of time.... which of course leaves the remaining coins as the liquidity.. which also likely pushes BTC price pressures in the upwards direction.

https://coinmetrics.substack.com/p/coin-metrics-state-of-the-network-cf2


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 07-23-2019

Here's another nice little article from today describing three stages of the world's "waking up to bitcoin"

https://medium.com/bull-bitcoin/the-world-is-waking-up-to-bitcoin-5d532a1188ce


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 07-23-2019

(07-22-2019, 05:37 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(07-21-2019, 04:17 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(07-21-2019, 03:55 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(07-17-2019, 05:08 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: Here's a hilarious post of an interview with U.S Republican congressman  Patrick McHenry, saying:

"Even the Chinese with their firewall and their extreme intervention in society could not kill #bitcoin.....You can't kill bitcoin"

https://twitter.com/MediumSqueeze/status/1151470299327733760

He also says that even though you cannot kill bitcoin, you can do a variety of things in terms of regulation regarding a number of reiterations of bitcoin that are trying to mimic bitcoin (such as facebook coin).

China can't stop VPNs either. Cypherpunks already won.

I agree with you that we have a decent amount of solidness in the foundations of bitcoin, and there have been some locations, such as China that have attempted fairly strong measures to control bitcoin, but then they have been left with both a kind of wack-a-mole situation and they also kind of got left out of a decent part of the 2017 BTC pump with some of their bigger BTC investors having their funds locked up on exchanges while china regulars were attempting to figure out what to do in terms of trying to keep track of bitcoin related funds and also seemingly trying to keep the bitcoin from growing further; however, we saw what happened 2017, the BTC price shot up throughout the whole without hardly giving any shits at all about whatever china was attempting to do in regards to trying to control bitcoin in their country.  Likely some of those BIGGER chinese BTC holders, who were not able to bypass Chinese attempts at controls, and who got screwed in the whole process of having their funds locked up were not very happy with chinese officials either.
Regarding your earlier reference to Cypherpunks, I came accross what seems to be a decent, but long, background article (linked below) regarding several of the back and forth battles that various Cypherpunks entertained in the 80s and 90s, which seems to provide some of the foundational thinking behind bitcoin, even though I, personally, don't proclaim to be too in tune with being able to sort through the accuracy of some of the factual representations or if any material and significant points are being left out of the article's discussion of that period.

http://projects.csmonitor.com/cypherpunk

Check out the crypto anarchist manifesto.

https://www.activism.net/cypherpunk/crypto-anarchy.html


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 07-23-2019

(07-23-2019, 10:34 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(07-22-2019, 05:37 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(07-21-2019, 04:17 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(07-21-2019, 03:55 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(07-17-2019, 05:08 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: Here's a hilarious post of an interview with U.S Republican congressman  Patrick McHenry, saying:

"Even the Chinese with their firewall and their extreme intervention in society could not kill #bitcoin.....You can't kill bitcoin"

https://twitter.com/MediumSqueeze/status/1151470299327733760

He also says that even though you cannot kill bitcoin, you can do a variety of things in terms of regulation regarding a number of reiterations of bitcoin that are trying to mimic bitcoin (such as facebook coin).

China can't stop VPNs either. Cypherpunks already won.

I agree with you that we have a decent amount of solidness in the foundations of bitcoin, and there have been some locations, such as China that have attempted fairly strong measures to control bitcoin, but then they have been left with both a kind of wack-a-mole situation and they also kind of got left out of a decent part of the 2017 BTC pump with some of their bigger BTC investors having their funds locked up on exchanges while china regulars were attempting to figure out what to do in terms of trying to keep track of bitcoin related funds and also seemingly trying to keep the bitcoin from growing further; however, we saw what happened 2017, the BTC price shot up throughout the whole without hardly giving any shits at all about whatever china was attempting to do in regards to trying to control bitcoin in their country.  Likely some of those BIGGER chinese BTC holders, who were not able to bypass Chinese attempts at controls, and who got screwed in the whole process of having their funds locked up were not very happy with chinese officials either.
Regarding your earlier reference to Cypherpunks, I came accross what seems to be a decent, but long, background article (linked below) regarding several of the back and forth battles that various Cypherpunks entertained in the 80s and 90s, which seems to provide some of the foundational thinking behind bitcoin, even though I, personally, don't proclaim to be too in tune with being able to sort through the accuracy of some of the factual representations or if any material and significant points are being left out of the article's discussion of that period.

http://projects.csmonitor.com/cypherpunk

Check out the crypto anarchist manifesto.

https://www.activism.net/cypherpunk/crypto-anarchy.html

Yes.  Nice and short for a manifesto with only four paragraphs and has a lot of decent concepts that seems to have some fittingness in bitcoin or playing out in bitcoin in terms of empowering some of the preferred tools of the cypherpunks.  It appears that draft was circulated in 1992 in which the internet was in its very early stages of adoption.  Lots of the minority of people who started to use internet in 1992, were beginning their internet exposures through AOL as their port of entry.  

Earlier today, I had come across another article about David Chaum's contributions in the late 70s at Berkeley.. and sure a lot of these developments are related and even overlapping with cypherpunks coming out with various concepts that seem to be later stringed together in bitcoin.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 07-24-2019

(07-23-2019, 11:31 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(07-23-2019, 10:34 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(07-22-2019, 05:37 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(07-21-2019, 04:17 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(07-21-2019, 03:55 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: China can't stop VPNs either. Cypherpunks already won.

I agree with you that we have a decent amount of solidness in the foundations of bitcoin, and there have been some locations, such as China that have attempted fairly strong measures to control bitcoin, but then they have been left with both a kind of wack-a-mole situation and they also kind of got left out of a decent part of the 2017 BTC pump with some of their bigger BTC investors having their funds locked up on exchanges while china regulars were attempting to figure out what to do in terms of trying to keep track of bitcoin related funds and also seemingly trying to keep the bitcoin from growing further; however, we saw what happened 2017, the BTC price shot up throughout the whole without hardly giving any shits at all about whatever china was attempting to do in regards to trying to control bitcoin in their country.  Likely some of those BIGGER chinese BTC holders, who were not able to bypass Chinese attempts at controls, and who got screwed in the whole process of having their funds locked up were not very happy with chinese officials either.
Regarding your earlier reference to Cypherpunks, I came accross what seems to be a decent, but long, background article (linked below) regarding several of the back and forth battles that various Cypherpunks entertained in the 80s and 90s, which seems to provide some of the foundational thinking behind bitcoin, even though I, personally, don't proclaim to be too in tune with being able to sort through the accuracy of some of the factual representations or if any material and significant points are being left out of the article's discussion of that period.

http://projects.csmonitor.com/cypherpunk

Check out the crypto anarchist manifesto.

https://www.activism.net/cypherpunk/crypto-anarchy.html

Yes.  Nice and short for a manifesto with only four paragraphs and has a lot of decent concepts that seems to have some fittingness in bitcoin or playing out in bitcoin in terms of empowering some of the preferred tools of the cypherpunks.  It appears that draft was circulated in 1992 in which the internet was in its very early stages of adoption.  Lots of the minority of people who started to use internet in 1992, were beginning their internet exposures through AOL as their port of entry.  

Earlier today, I had come across another article about David Chaum's contributions in the late 70s at Berkeley.. and sure a lot of these developments are related and even overlapping with cypherpunks coming out with various concepts that seem to be later stringed together in bitcoin.

Yeah I think it was originally written in 1988 but basically this has been going on for a while. The government tried to stop cryptography already, but they can't. Which is why I am so bullish on bitcoin. It is the internet's money, and like jack Dorsey said, it is of the internet, made on the internet. Cool link I'll check it out now.

Yeah David Chaum was definitely a pioneer. He got really close.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 07-24-2019

According to the below attached article, apparently next week on thursday the senate banking committee is starting some kind of investigation into regulatory parameters including digital currencies and blockchain, whatever that means.

https://www.coindesk.com/senate-banking-committee-to-hold-hearing-on-crypto-regulation-next-week


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 07-26-2019

Below linked article suggests that there is no need for you to panic if you own BTC and you receive IRS letter 6174.



https://www.forbes.com/sites/tysoncross/2019/07/26/crypto-investors-receiving-irs-letter-6174-a-dont-need-to-panic-heres-why/#148be1fc2111


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 07-27-2019

As a reminder during these tough times, here's a nice little list of the extreme BTC price corrections that we suffered during the 2015-2107 bull market.  Many of them did not feel good while they were happening, and many  of them felt like they could be the beginning of the end of the bull run.

[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.twimg.com%2Fmedia%2...AVmqrc3vrg]


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 07-28-2019

Below is linked a nice little bullish bitcoin article from PlanB from a couple of days that has a few nice charts in there, too.

https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/07/26/bitcoin-price-looking-at-a-hundredfold-jump-analyst/


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 07-28-2019

Some guys who are following bitcoin, may have heard of Tyler Jenks, who was 70 years old and passed away a few days ago.  He had only been in the bitcoin space for less than 2 years but he made some important contributions and impressions, even though criticized a lot lately for the short term bearishness of his hyperwave theory.. while proclaiming to be long term bullish about bitcoin.

There are some tweets about him, and a video from earlier today, too.

Tone Vays and Leah Wald YouTube video discussion


Topical twitter posts of:

Old ugly goat   (I believe this was one of the first tweets about the topic)

Tone Vays


Leah Wald

LucidInvestments


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - SC87 - 07-28-2019

You are predicting the bull market will last until 2107?


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 07-28-2019

(07-28-2019, 09:55 PM)SC87 Wrote: You are predicting the bull market will last until 2107?


I am not sure from where you would be getting anything from me predicting a BTC bull market so far into the future, and I am not even sure if any of the informative links that I posted were suggesting such a thing - but even if any of them were, those kinds of predictions would not necessarily be attributable to me, right?

Another thing, 2107 is so far into the future so I am not really sure how much it matters, even though of course people can describe such BTC projections for that kind of time line to suggest that there is a vision for that many years into the future.  

Of course, the current BTC mining reward algorithm plans approximately that far into the future in terms of mining rewards going out to 2140, so even though such a decently solid future plan could give some solace regarding having a plan, I am a bit unsure how something like that would actually contribute towards shorter term investment plans.

Like I had mentioned earlier, initially, I was only planning at minimum to attempt to stay in bitcoin for at least 1 year in terms of at least attempting to fall in long-term rather than short-term capital gains tax, which would be applicable to any USA tax purposes.

Even though guys should be quite capable of attempting to change their investment plans at any time that reasonable information is available to them, I also believe that it should be possible for guys to attempt to come at bitcoin with a 5 year plus vision, and maybe even bitcoin has been around long enough to bring some comfort in such an attempt at a decently longer term plan, even though for sure a guy would not be locked into such a plan if facts or logic evolved in such a way to cause him to need to significantly change such plan or even to abandon his investment into bitcoin completely.

By the way, regarding length of bull runs and bear runs, I have no reason to conclude that any tentative bitcoin investing plan that attempts to use bitcoin's price performance history as a model would not be a bad starting point in terms of attempting to figure out where bitcoin is going and how it might perform, even though several of the variables might change in the future, including percentage of price changes, absolute quantities of price changes, frequency between price bubbles and even duration of any price bubble whether bullish or bearish.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 07-29-2019

[Image: EAhUClKUwAUY2LE?format=png&name=large]

This is what bitcoin's monetary policy looks like all the way up to 2100. We don't even know what central banks monetary policies will be a day in advance.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 07-29-2019

This below-linked twitter thread seems to contain some decent discussion regarding how it is prudent for various users around the world to be attempting to protect public repository information, including information about bitcoin.

 https://twitter.com/orionwl/status/1155058225299042304


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - SC87 - 07-29-2019

JJG it was a joke from an obvious typo in one of your earlier posts, post #119


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 07-29-2019

(07-29-2019, 04:04 AM)SC87 Wrote: JJG it was a joke from an obvious typo in one of your earlier posts, post #119

Ah ha... Now, I see it.

Joke or not, I was able to respond to your question... hahahahahaha

I was also able to bring up some of my recent thoughts about currently coming into bitcoin with more or less a five year plan.

It seems to me that previously, a decent number of people who were getting into bitcoin were reluctant to formulate plans that lasted any longer than a year or two and would just consider to "see how it goes" sort of approach, but currently, it seems as if having a 5 year bitcoin plan is a lot more feasible than it had been previously.  

Surely, one of the problems with market price performance history is that you cannot really rely on it completely in order to figure out what your investment plan for the future should be; however, we have seen several arguments made that historically any buy and accumulation of BTC plan that had lasted 3.5 years or longer would end up being profitable, so long as the coins were never sold and they were held at least 3.5 years.  

It seems quite possible that we will continue to see similar BTC price dynamics into the future, even if the price percentage changes might become different, buy there are arguments that the reduction of the halvening of the supply could cause for less severe cycles based on stock to flow ratios, so in that regard the actual fixed supply might become more important than the changes in the supply.