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RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Nolimitz - 04-09-2020

@contrarian

I've stated before.

BTC can fail. It can also succeed.

The same could have been said for Amazon, apple, and many real estate deals. That is the case for many investments. You can insult my investment "acumen" all you want, but that itself illustrates the violation of an important investment skill-->not getting caught up in your emotions.

It seems like your arguments against BTC are largely emotional, aside from what you said regarding legal implications. There are many pieces of evidence that the framework for legal regulation is being laid for bitcoin. I posted something on that earlier in the thread.

In my opinion if you can't see the fundamental value of BTC in this environment (for christ sake the fed is buying junk bonds as of today) then just lol. You will never see the use case....and when you do the true opportunity for returns will have passed.

No one is arguing that real estate can provide you an income....in fact any "master" of finance could easily see the potential that digital collateral presents.

In your own words, "you can lead a horse to water...."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LnEik-n-yTM

"This interview was recorded on October 30th 2019 while shooting a documentary about Bitcoin entrepreneur Niklas Nikolajsen in Zug, Switzerland. The documentary was produced for the German TV program "Galileo" (famous science/entertainment magazine). Actually it was not planned to broadcast the whole interview but only to take some quotes from the interview and cut it into the 15-minute-piece (find it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2O7H...). While editing we recognized that there was so much more content inside the talk that needs to be shown - but it took a while to decide about how to upload it. "


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Contrarian Expatriate - 04-09-2020

(04-09-2020, 08:35 PM)Nolimitz Wrote: @contrarian

I've stated before.

BTC can fail. It can also succeed.

The same could have been said for Amazon, apple, and many real estate deals. That is the case for many investments. You can insult my investment "acumen" all you want, but that itself illustrates the violation of an important investment skill-->not getting caught up in your emotions.

It seems like your arguments against BTC are largely emotional, aside from what you said regarding legal implications. There are many pieces of evidence that the framework for legal regulation is being laid for bitcoin. I posted something on that earlier in the thread.

In my opinion if you can't see the fundamental value of BTC in this environment (for christ sake the fed is buying junk bonds as of today) then just lol. You will never see the use case....and when you do the true opportunity for returns will have passed.

No one is arguing that real estate can provide you an income....in fact any "master" of finance could easily see the potential that digital collateral presents.

In your own words, "you can lead a horse to water...."

You've made your feelings known previously.  But the proof will be in the pudding 10, 20 and 30 years from now when you've realized you've did not take those golden opportunities for compound growth worth extra hundreds of thousands of dollars for your net worth.

This is why the our system of wealth-building in the West rewards the few and penalizes the multitude of others.  Most simply can't or won't see opportunity when it stares them in the face.  Perhaps that is how it SHOULD be.

What Bitcoiners don't realize is that as soon as a competing cryptocurrency like Facebook's Libra, or central bank-sanctioned official digital currencies come onto the scene.   Bitcoin will be yesterday's stale toast and the value will likely tank beyond belief.

But please do go ahead with Bitcoin.  I take great pride in being proven right over time.  And my track record includes already having made into the top 10% in terms of wealth.  But sometimes guys dig their heels into something because they have emotionally invested in it without thinking things thru completely.  I see a lot of that in this thread but I wish you luck with it.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Nolimitz - 04-09-2020

@contrarian

How can anyone speak in certainties? Facebook's did something unique w/ Libra in the sense that It was similar to a basket of currencies and emulated many "features" of numerous alt coins. I agree 100% CB's will follow suit w/ their own currencies.

Congratulations on your track record....but past performance doesn't guarantee that you're 100% correct on everything. WB missed out on Amazon. I'm curious as to how you see Libra and gov. digital currencies as the same as bitcoin...they are not, nor can they ever be.

Am I emotionally biased towards bitcoin? You are correct I have strong bias towards this asset. However, I am aware enough to keep myself in check and acknowledge when fundamentals have changed...they haven't.

You very well could be right, and maybe I will look like a giant idiot in 20-30 years. I don't think so.

I see the value of poking holes in the BTC thesis here, but I don't believe you have pointed to any specific fundamental flaws that will be bitcoin's downfall. Government/Corporate competition....eh.

Here is the question: Short of BTC being banned (we talked about being very difficult to do) and competition what is the flaw you see in bitcoin that makes it completely worthless. I am curious to your answer.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Contrarian Expatriate - 04-10-2020

(04-09-2020, 10:43 PM)Nolimitz Wrote: @contrarian

How can anyone speak in certainties? Facebook's did something unique w/ Libra in the sense that It was similar to a basket of currencies and emulated many "features" of numerous alt coins. I agree 100% CB's will follow suit w/ their own currencies.

Congratulations on your track record....but past performance doesn't guarantee that you're 100% correct on everything. WB missed out on Amazon. I'm curious as to how you see Libra and gov. digital currencies as the same as bitcoin...they are not, nor can they ever be.

Am I emotionally biased towards bitcoin? You are correct I have strong bias towards this asset. However, I am aware enough to keep myself in check and acknowledge when fundamentals have changed...they haven't.

You very well could be right, and maybe I will look like a giant idiot in 20-30 years. I don't think so.

I see the value of poking holes in the BTC thesis here, but I don't believe you have pointed to any specific fundamental flaws that will be bitcoin's downfall. Government/Corporate competition....eh.

Here is the question: Short of BTC being banned (we talked about being very difficult to do) and competition what is the flaw you see in bitcoin that makes it completely worthless. I am curious to your answer.
Since I am detecting a veer into straw man territory ie. "You can't speak in certainties," my "Past performance doesn't guarantee that you're 100% correct on everything," I think the usefulness of discussing it with you has run its course.  If you're serious about the questions you are posing again, I ask you to re-read what I have already pointed out and you'll find that I have already addressed them. 

But as I mentioned before, please do continue with Bitcoin and I wish you luck with it.  As for myself, I am hoping for it to plunge beyond belief so I can bottom feed from the carnage.  I do this with other sectors, to include real estate, and Bitcoin is no different in this regard.  


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Nolimitz - 04-10-2020

Ok. Cop out with the straw man. "I hope it plunges beyond belief"...I hope so too b/c I'd love to continue to build my position.

My only request was to point out one fundamental flaw that would warrant that desired plunge....and you can't.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Contrarian Expatriate - 04-10-2020

(04-10-2020, 02:12 AM)Nolimitz Wrote: Ok. Cop out with the straw man. "I hope it plunges beyond belief"...I hope so too b/c I'd love to continue to build my position.

My only request was to point out one fundamental flaw that would warrant that desired plunge....and you can't.
Again, I think the usefulness of discussing it with you has run its course.  If you're serious about the questions you posed, I suggest that you to re-read what I have already pointed out and you'll find that I have already addressed them. 

As I mentioned before, please do continue to speculate with Bitcoin all you wish.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Obermarschall - 04-10-2020

Real estate is also speculation, as are stocks and everything else while we are at it. Real estate has also many costs that need to be covered, you need insurance, you need to find people who want to live in your apartments/houses (otherwise it stays empty). Real Estate doesn't always go up and can sometimes just be confiscated, as for Bitcoin, confiscation is not really a problem. I have vritually zero costs for holding Bitcoin for instance, while having an apartment, I need to pay taxes, insurance etc. Sure I could optimize it, but then I will sacrifice my own time or hire someone else and again pay for it. In Bulgaria the real estate prices stagnated for like 10 years and even went down. Same for Greece for instance. Also don't forget that some people will go back to their parents when they can't even afford to pay rent.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Contrarian Expatriate - 04-11-2020

(04-10-2020, 03:57 PM)Obermarschall Wrote: Real estate is also speculation, as are stocks and everything else while we are at it.  Real estate has also many costs that need to be covered, you need insurance, you need to find people who want to live in your apartments/houses (otherwise it stays empty). Real Estate doesn't always go up and can sometimes just be confiscated, as for Bitcoin, confiscation is not really a problem. I have vritually zero costs for holding Bitcoin for instance, while having an apartment, I need to pay taxes, insurance etc. Sure I could optimize it, but then I will sacrifice my own time or hire someone else and again pay for it. In Bulgaria the real estate prices stagnated for like 10 years and even went down. Same for Greece for instance. Also don't forget that some people will go back to their parents when they can't even afford to pay rent.
Not exactly.  If you are a dividend stock owner, that is not speculation.  Conversely, if you buy a home with the hope for the value to eventually go up, then that is indeed speculation.  But if you have been paying attention, that is not even close to the type real estate investment I have been recommending.  I recommend cash flow, dividend real estate investing ONLY.  There is a world of a difference if you understand what constitutes speculation.

Also, since when do we not have to pay taxes on Bitcoin?  You actually do in many countries, and you might find that evading taxes on Bitcoin gains will catch up with you because that can be a criminal offense.

History and the law of supply and demand show that recessions generally benefit rental demand (and pricing).  If folks have been on their own and have to move back to their parents, it is only a matter of time before they want to break out on their own as soon as they can.

But if you are a "ride or die" Bitcoiner, please do remain one.  Even if you end up regretting it in the future, you will have learned a very valuable lesson albeit the hard way.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - SC87 - 04-18-2020

So I guess JJG sold all his BTC because it's going to 0.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Nolimitz - 04-19-2020

https://open.spotify.com/episode/28dSgjK2ahFZfyka4n3zCZ

Podcast episode discussing the value prop of bitcoin as a protocol....comparison made to early internet protocols and how they may have been valued. Well worth a listen.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Nolimitz - 04-24-2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkO19SLaumQ

New four-year cycle video from Bob Loukas

-Position sizing
-COVID effects on Bitcoin
-Potential cycle top
-Halving

All discussed


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Triad - 05-03-2020

Anyone have experience with the Crypto.com platform and debit cards? Seems kinda neat.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Obermarschall - 05-14-2020

Bitcoin is doing really good, compared to most other assets. When looking at the daily chart it doesn't seem to be overbought and had a cross on the StochRSI. The MACD may get a cross as well. Overall it seems really good and the next major resistance is at around 9900-10000. Perhaps I wouldn't buy Bitcoin right now, but selling it right now would be really stupid in my opinion.

When checking the weekly charts, the StochRSI is coming close and a bearish cross could happen, but as long as it doesn't I guess we might be still safe...

As for the monthy, the wig goes bellow the 13-day MA, while the body of the candlestick is above the 13-day MA. Bullish! Moreover, the body is above January's and February's candlestick body. If the candlestick closes with a body above 9400 we might get a monthly resistance around 10100-10400.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Nolimitz - 05-14-2020

@Obermar Personally I am still seeing a lot of bearish calls across the web....the crypto fear greed index is "Fear".

"Buy when others are fearful....sell when others are greedy."

I've already stated in this thread that I am bullish on bitcoin in the long-term. I would be very happy to accumulate at lower prices....but so would the herd. It's my opinion that max pain for the herd is on the upside.

Paul Tudor Jones (hedge fund manager) recently came out stating his fund would be allocating at least 1% to Bitcoin. This lays the table for institutional FOMO. One of the most important factors for hedge funds is risk management. Now that a credible HF manager w/ a track record of success has publicly endorsed bitcoin as a potential store of value....it is just a matter of time before others fall in line.

How far the BTC ETF is away....who knows. But I expect fireworks by that point. That's about the time retail will get dumped on.

Scarcity + Demand =?

Simple economics.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 06-18-2020

(04-18-2020, 03:13 PM)SC87 Wrote: So I guess JJG sold all his BTC because it's going to 0.

Are you referring to the March 12 correction down to $3,850?

I though that was old news, but since I have not posted for a while, I will reiterate more or less what I had done, which is largely consistent with my position in bitcoin for the past 6.5 years-ish.

I bought on the way down to $3,850.   On the way down, I did have to reset some of my buy orders in the sub $6k arena because I had not expected the price to go down that far, so I wanted to at least be prepared for down to $3k, and if the price would have gone down to $3k, I would have run out of buy orders, and I would have had to manually buy down to about $2k-ish depending on how it would have played out.

In late March/early April, I did make a few adjustments in order to make sure that I had sell orders that went down to $3k and I would have been a bit more prepared for down to $2k-ish, in the event that it would have happened... and so far it hasn't. 

In about the last few weeks, I have had to make some further adjustments to my cashflow due to several of my revolving credit lines expiring, and I don't really feel like jumping through a bunch of nonsense hoops (in these weird gouging times), so I am just going to pay them all off, and pretty much I have moved my cash around in order to achieve paying back all of my revolving credit lines.  My bitcoin cashflow should not be affected unless the price goes below $4k... and sure, maybe it will and maybe it will not.  We will see.

By the way, we have also had the BTC halvening on May 11th, and as we likely know there had been three subsequent BTC difficulty adjustments of two down and one up, and largely BTC's hashing power is in a similar place as it had been prior to the halvening, and the difficulty adjustments seem to be within a range of showing normal and regular BTC functioning and adjusting, even if there is likely some gaming (with the miners) going on there... (three halvenings under BTC's belt... and all is well and going strong.... great...)

(04-19-2020, 05:30 PM)Nolimitz Wrote: https://open.spotify.com/episode/28dSgjK2ahFZfyka4n3zCZ

Podcast episode discussing the value prop of bitcoin as a protocol....comparison made to early internet protocols and how they may have been valued. Well worth a listen.

So far, I don't do Spotify, so I may not be able to see/hear such podcast, if it is not playing anywhere else.

(04-24-2020, 06:43 PM)Nolimitz Wrote: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkO19SLaumQ

New four-year cycle video from Bob Loukas 

-Position sizing
-COVID effects on Bitcoin
-Potential cycle top 
-Halving 

All discussed

I had seen that one last week or so.  Yes, I recommend it as being largely informative.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - SC87 - 06-18-2020

JJG I was joking because you hadn't posted about BTC in a while.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 06-18-2020

(06-18-2020, 05:01 AM)SC87 Wrote: JJG I was joking because you hadn't posted about BTC in a while.

Fair enough..

The BIG question has continued to be whether BTC is going to break above $10k-ish in any kind of meaningful way in the coming foreseeable future.. 

In recent times, I had been asserting that I was not going to get too excited if BTC prices stay within a kind of $8k to $10k range... yet we are getting upon a couple months in that same range, and maybe there can be some feelings of contentment with that or even boredom... whether the BTC price is going to go up or down and whether it is correlated with other assets such as equities or gold seems to be other kinds of misleading areas of assertion..... even though in the short term we are likely going to be witnessing some correlations, but with bitcoin, the longer you zoom out, the less likely that you are going to find meaningful correlations, and the lack of correlation is more likely to persist in the longer terms, even though I am not going to deny short term correlations. 

Anything else we need to discuss?

Is there a need for more updates to the thread?  Or are you happy seeing fewer posts?  There seems to be always some kind of bitcoin related news that can be posted... just going through the process of posting it and then sometimes being able to respond further, as needed.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - LeBeau - 06-18-2020

JJG we used to chat more on the RVF, but I've always enjoyed reading links and arguments both FOR and AGAINST Bitcoin appreciation.

You also mentioned the concept of ranges and breakouts. One of the areas that doesn't seem to get enough attention is exactly what catalysts are needed to see another huge increase (or decrease in price) in a short time frame.

Finally, anything related to small rigs or mining at home is always useful to keep up to date with new developments for retail participants.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 06-18-2020

(06-18-2020, 10:23 PM)LeBeau Wrote: JJG we used to chat more on the RVF, but I've always enjoyed reading links and arguments both FOR and AGAINST Bitcoin appreciation.

I personally have no problem with posts that attempt to predict BTC's short-term price direction or various discussions of BTC fundamentals that might go either direction.

One of the common problems of bitcoin naysayers tends to be that they tend to be both inadequate in knowledge about bitcoin and frequently pumping some kind of alt-coin or some other bitcoin attack vector talking point.

For sure, we will get more interesting talking points if bitcoin naysayers are able to back up their points, which as I suggest seems to be more of a rare event.

By the way, there does tend to be quite a bit of bitcoin bashing and the spouting out of nonsensical talking points in the mainstream media or even in altcoin pumpening threads, so if you are craving those bitcoin bashing conversations there are a lot of them out there. I personally find it much more interesting to try to share ideas with people who are actually knowledgeable about bitcoin, and surely there is no need to engage in a circle jerk or to feel reluctant to express some negative views about bitcoin, whether we are concerned about bitcoin's possible price direction or even negative macro influences on bitcoin, such as concerns about bitcoin's possible correlation to equities or to gold.

If you have some of those possible negative aspects that you want to discuss, LeBeau, then maybe you might want to bring them up.

Of course, there are some questions regarding whether any kind of altcoin investment is needed, and personally, I find some of those topics to be slippery slopes and maybe not really so great to bring up in this particular thread because they tend to devolve into off-topic alt coin pumpening which likely would be more appropriately presented in the crypto thread or some other thread.

We had some of those battles in RVF's bitcoin thread with some members wanting to talk about their various bullshit coins and not even attempting to make the discussion relevant to bitcoin, and in the end, largely a lot of those shitcoin pumping topics moved to other threads.. and I personally thought that a lot of those attempt to expand the subject matter of the Bitcoin thread to be a BIG ASS waste of time... which when creating this topic here (about a year ago, now) I tried to clarify in the OP of this thread regarding that we are not talking about bullshit vague ideas of "crypto" here, but instead bitcoin, more specifically.... so surely, the sneaking in of other related topics is a lot easier to stay on topic if at least trying to relate the topic to bitcoin beyond just saying "my coin is going to pump because it is bitcoin 2.0 because it is better for x, y or z reasons.. .. blah blah blah", and those of us who have been in bitcoin long enough have a heard too many of those kinds of superficial baloney claims.

(06-18-2020, 10:23 PM)LeBeau Wrote: You also mentioned the concept of ranges and breakouts. One of the areas that doesn't seem to get enough attention is exactly what catalysts are needed to see another huge increase (or decrease in price) in a short time frame.

I agree with you that guys are frequently interested in BTC price movements for a large number of reasons, and there tend to be a lot of theories regarding why BTC prices might be inclined to go one direction or another, and some of them deal with fundamentals and others deal with technical analysis, momentum, news events, macro forces, manipulation and other possible forces, including how much weight might be given to seemingly currently valid BTC
price prediction models such as 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractals and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on networking and metcalfe principles.

Guys have a variety of ways of discussing short, medium or longer-term price dynamics, and no doubt that we are not likely to agree on how much weight to give to the varying factors, which surely cause guys differing ideas in regard to whether and how to invest or trade BTC, if at all.

If you have some concerns about BTC's price direction, whether short, medium or long term, then surely you should feel free to bring up your concerns, and for sure in current times, there has been decent fears regarding how much BTC's prices might be correlated to a lot of uncertainties in macro circumstances, whether we are referring to money printing, the virus and/or other factors causing uncertainties in a lot of asset classes, and opinions vary quite a bit regarding these kinds of assessments, too.



(06-18-2020, 10:23 PM)LeBeau Wrote: Finally, anything related to small rigs or mining at home is always useful to keep up to date with new developments for retail participants.

Sure... if you are into mining, running a bitcoin node, aspects of lightning network and/or some other seemingly technical discussions that might include development questions then feel free to present some of your ideas here, if you believe that some guys might be able to relate to your presentation of the topic, even though there are likely some better threads that have more technical folks, even though I doubt that the pool of technical guys (at least in regards to mining and some of the other topics) would be very high in this forum, but surely if you have some ideas regarding mining, there might be some guys who are interested in talking about some of those mining related matters in this thread, even though I have my doubts regarding whether some of the more technical folks in bitcoin would be members of this forum (but never say never, remember the owner of alphabay (rawmeow I believe) was an RVF member and bitcoin thread participant before his purported "suicide" in the custody of Thailand police). So, sometimes there might be famous or even very experienced guys in our midst without our really knowing.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - billydingdong - 06-19-2020

(06-18-2020, 10:23 PM)LeBeau Wrote: JJG we used to chat more on the RVF, but I've always enjoyed reading links and arguments both FOR and AGAINST Bitcoin appreciation.

You also mentioned the concept of ranges and breakouts. One of the areas that doesn't seem to get enough attention is exactly what catalysts are needed to see another huge increase (or decrease in price) in a short time frame.

Finally, anything related to small rigs or mining at home is always useful to keep up to date with new developments for retail participants.

I have an AGAINST thesis...
  • I happen to think Bitcoin's long-term security model is fundamentally questionable — fixed supply of coins sounds good but how will miners/transaction signers be incentivized to verify transactions and secure the network as the mining reward decreases and if transaction fees + volume don't prove to be adequate?

  • Having so much mining concentration in China, a political wildcard, is not good — 65% of hashrate is in China

  • The proof of work consensus algorithm (which determines who mines the next block of transactions) is incredibly wasteful from an energy perspective and there are better alternatives.

  • At present, Bitcoin has a very slow 7 transactions /second. It's not scalable and nothing on the horizon to indicate that it will scale further. It's current solution, to the scaling problem, the Lightning Network, is highly questionable

  • Bitcoin doesn't have effective privacy features that allow for truly private transactions. Transactions are at-best anonymous but it's often too easy to trace the identity and transaction amounts of known addresses.

  • Innovation (and therefore ecosystem and infrastructure development) is very sluggish and not promising compared to other projects in the space that have a lot more devs.

  • Other cryptos have more actual usage and higher network demand as indicated by higher transaction transaction fees

Bitcoin rules the roost today and may for awhile but other but I don't think Bitcoin's current advantages (easy to understand, liquidity, name-recognition) are enough of a moat to overcome its disadvantages while also warding off other projects that have been gaining ground fast in several key areas. Bitcoin's first-mover advantage will be quickly eroded as people become comfortable with digital assets. 

It may have another pump and I hold some just in case, but when looking at the long horizon. I'm comparatively pessimistic

Basically, I think that Bitcoin looks more like AOL than Microsoft.