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RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 04-08-2020

It does not hurt to share another current article on bitcoin's works in progress.

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoins-future-exactly-how-a-coming-upgrade-could-improve-privacy-and-scaling

Quote:

>>>>>
"If the privacy and scaling upgrade Schnorr/Taproot makes it into bitcoin (BTC), it could pave the way for advanced and heretofore impossible projects. That is, as they say, good for bitcoin." <<<<


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - dingdongditch - 04-08-2020

That's a strange position for the Nobel Laureate to take. Cash wouldn't have that protection either. If the landlord or police found it, it would be confiscated. If he put it in a bank, laundering regulations would have popped him. Also you could just do cloud backup, even with a retail product.

My criticism of BTC is ACH fees are less than mining fees and BTC doesn't provide any interest in most use cases. Rigs are owned by Chinese hedge funds so it's just a less accountable World Bank.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Contrarian Expatriate - 04-08-2020

(04-08-2020, 05:08 AM)dingdongditch Wrote: That's a strange position for the Nobel Laureate to take. Cash wouldn't have that protection either. If the landlord or police found it, it would be confiscated. If he put it in a bank, laundering regulations would have popped him. Also you could just do cloud backup, even with a retail product.

My criticism of BTC is ACH fees are less than mining fees and BTC doesn't provide any interest in most use cases. Rigs are owned by Chinese hedge funds so it's just a less accountable World Bank.
Good point, but I guess his argument is premised on the fact that most people only hold de minimis amounts of physical cash relative to what Bitcoin holders maintain.  

The seizure of $500 or so in cash is nothing compared to the loss of $50,000 or more worth of Bitcoin.  Also, there is a growing set of examples of people losing Bitcoin fortunes for the most absent-minded of reasons.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 04-08-2020

Here's an interesting tweet of a graph of bitcoin returns on a calendar year basis for each calendar year between 2010 to 2019, even though 2010 only is half of that particular year, but you can see from the lines and the numbers that so far there have only been two negative years in 2014 and in 2018, and 2013 was the greatest returns within any particular calendar year, to date.  I doubt that we will ever see those kinds of levels of returns in any particular calendar year.  Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results, either.

https://twitter.com/yassineARK/status/1247601281813884928

[Image: EVBeuBqXsAEfXig?format=jpg&name=small]


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 04-08-2020

 
(04-07-2020, 09:41 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: Economist Nouriel Roubini is Right About Bitcoin’s Biggest Security Flaw.


 
Sometimes I wonder if you, Contrarian, even understand the content that you post, and sure you are striving to spread exaggerated bullshit about bitcoin.  Partly perhaps, you are attempting to spread such bullshit based on your own lack of understanding of what the fuck bitcoin is, yet probably more likely you are just purposefully bitcoin naysaying for some kind of troll/shilling comic relief motives that are more known to you rather than my attempting to find any kind of possible genuine motive or meaning in your largely grasping at straws and frequently misleading posts.
 
I watched the 3 minute dramatic video, so to some extent, at least it did not take away too much of my life, so at least there were NOT too many themes therein that were too distracting from reality.  How much could they fuck up in 3 minutes?
 
One theme of the video is to attempt to exaggeratedly highlight the personal responsibility that comes through bitcoin.  They seem to be blaming bitcoin for users failing and refusing to take responsibility for their security measures, and sloppy shit like failing refusing to adequately back up and/or purportedly keeping all backups (and all coins) in one location.
 
This particular video focuses on the recent Clifton Collins case, which was a guy who purportedly invested into bitcoin from his illegal drug-related business, but then when the court came after him for proceeds, he claims to have lost all of his bitcoin because the means upon which he stored his private keys was only in one location.  It is a ridiculous story, in and of itself, especially because it is far from plausible whether it is true that his private keys would only have been stored in one location, especially for something like 6,000 BTC, which would be around $43million dollars at today’s prices.  So, this is really NOT just a problem of bitcoin, if it is actually true, if someone is putting such low levels of precautionary measures for that quantity of value, when there are a lot of other options.  Nonetheless, down the road, if those coins end up moving, then it will be discovered that the coins were not “lost forever” as seems to be the implication in the video, but another interesting aspect of that particular Collins case is that the state had proclaimed those coins to be confiscated by the state through the court proceedings; however, all they happen to know are the public addresses, not the private keys, so if Collins were to move to some location that is outside of the reach of that state, then perhaps the coins might move, and then it would be discovered that the private keys to the coins had not been lost forever.  If Collins is within reach of the state when the coins are moved, he might proclaim that it was not him that moved the coins, so that would perhaps become a new case and still to be determined if those coins will ever move again.  If the keys to those coins are in fact lost forever, then it is merely a gift to the whole BTC community in the increasing of bitcoin scarcity by removing those coins from the system, even though there remains a decent amount of uncertainty whether if at some point in the future access to such coins ends up being restored, which would be through either someone finding the keys or Collins having the keys all along but just NOT being truthful about that.
 
Besides the purported lack of responsibility in securing value (which being able to store and secure your own value is a feature in bitcoin and not a bug), the Collins example also brings out the idea that bitcoin is used by thieves and that there is some kind of poetic justice in the event that a criminal loses his wealth, and both of these concepts are just playing into ignorance because first of all bitcoin is not only used by thieves, so that aspect is not true, and second, it is still unclear regarding whether Collins really does not have access to the private keys, as he proclaims to be the case.
 
Another aspect of the video is to attempt to put Roubini on some kind of pedestal.  Roubini is known in the bitcoin space as a kind of bitcoin naysaying goofball that attempts to bring his academic credentials and to spout out nearly pure nonsense, which he had been doing for at least a few years in the bitcoin space.  Citing Roubini as a purported expert does not really lend credibility to the content of the claims of the video.
 
 
 
(04-07-2020, 09:41 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: I'm sure our "friend" JJG will chime in with a rant of rationalizations and denials but that is par for the course from people hellbent on scamming you into poor financial decisions.
 
 Really, there is not much added value in this particular video example that you provided, Contrarian.  You are largely repeating nonsense from another video that you submitted earlier that showed something like 6 examples of bitcoin holders losing their coins, and this is another example of someone losing their coins, perhaps.  It is not exactly enlightening or even substantively engaging.
 
 
(04-07-2020, 09:41 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: If you want to speculate a small piece of your portfolio with Bitcoin, great.  But pouring your life savings into Bitcoin like JJG recommends is just ridiculous. 
 
Hardly my recommendation that guys start out by considering 1% to 10% of their quasi-liquid investment portfolio towards BTC should be considered as life savings, even though guys might come to differing conclusions.. while you are continuing to just make shit up about what is being said on a regular basis, which is also known as the creation of strawman arguments, one of your ongoing disingenuous troll/shill specialties.
 
 
(04-07-2020, 09:41 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: In fact, if you had done so at the beginning of the year as he was encouraging, you'd be substantially poorer right now.
 
More strawman bullshit attempting to speculate about when a guy might have gotten in and how much he would have put into BTC.  And, which guy(s) are we talking about exactly?
 
Before any STW guy even gets into BTC, he better figure the fuck out how he is going to get into it in the first place, including possibly setting up at least one onboarding account that is going to differ from jurisdiction to jurisdiction, unless he knows of some direct way to buy bitcoin, such as direct meet ups…. And some of those mechanisms of meeting people have seemed to have dried up, which local bitcoins used to be a very popular quick onboarding mechanism that is no longer available.  Maybe even more challenging to meet up, even if you find someone who might be willing to meet up to trade during these quarantining times?
 
Before this hypothetical STW BTC investing guy even gets started in bitcoin, we should be figuring out what is his budget.  How much is he going to allocate towards bitcoin, and is he allocating it now or is he spreading out such allocation over a period of time, which is what?  So really difficult, Contrarian, to create some kind of fictional guy who would have supposedly invested all in bitcoin in early 2020 when we don’t even have such hypothetical guy in front of us or the hypothetical question that might have been in front of us at the beginning of the year, which we cannot go back to that anyhow.  Right now, we have this moment, and any calculation would be made on conditions that exist at this moment and trying to project what to do based on what we might consider to be the case in the future.  Sure, looking at the past can be informative, and I am not opposed to that, but that is only part of what needs to be considered when making a current investment decision, in the event any any actual STW guy is actually considering such current investment decision.
 
Regarding yourself, specifically, Contrarian, are you contemplating anything?  Or just continuing to wait for $2k-ish?  Hardly seems like a sound strategy or even one that is going to realistically help but a small fraction of bitcoin naysaying guys regarding what to do.. and I am not even sure if you are helping those pie in the sky dweebs to the extent very many of them exist in these here parts…. By the way, even if you might seem to fit in the dweeb like category, like contrarian, I may be willing to help you to help yourself, and I might even be willing to help Contrarian to help himself too, in the event such fucktwat transitions into a more genuine poster, seems pretty unlikely, but hey.. never say never.  


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Contrarian Expatriate - 04-08-2020

Commodity trader Peter Brandt says that he places his bets on Bitcoin (BTC) plunging all the way to zero. 

The drop below $7,500 was an inflection point for the prominent chartist who was bullish on the orange coin just a few months ago.

Might be time to think about cashing most of your Bitcoin out before its cheerleaders like our "friend" JJG have you living in regret later. 

https://u.today/peter-brandt-says-zero-could-be-bitcoins-btc-ultimate-bottom


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 04-08-2020

(04-08-2020, 05:08 AM)dingdongditch Wrote: That's a strange position for the Nobel Laureate to take.

I would not get too caught up with providing credibility to that seeming diptwat Roubini based on his being a Nobel Laureate.

Over the past several years, he has been shown to be quite retarded and even seemingly angry about bitcoin, which tends to demonstrate that either he does not understand bitcoin or he has some kind of motive to naysay bitcoin on a regular basis and even become so irrationally passionate in expressing a lot of quite stupid ideas, which would seem to be below his stature as a professor. There have been quite a few other purported experts in the space, too that truly should not be taken seriously, especially if they start to try to use their real world status rather than really grappling with what kind of value that bitcoin has already added and remains poised to continue to add such value.

(04-08-2020, 05:08 AM)dingdongditch Wrote: Cash wouldn't have that protection either.

Well to some extent bitcoin has abilities to emulate cash, at least in terms of it being a bearer instrument. So when you have the asset (or keys to the asset) there remains some presumption to ownership and ability to transact in it, so with bitcoin your ability to transact with it becomes proven when you send the bitcoins to another person just like when you hand someone cash. With cash, maybe you might show someone a briefcase full of the cash, and then tell them that if they sign over the title to the lambo, and they give you the keys, then you are going to give them the briefcase full of cash.

Regarding bitcoin, you might show someone that you have access to a bitcoin address or you might provide a signature that shows that you have access to that wallet, and with that kind of evidence, they might know that you have access to the bitcoin before you even send them the bitcoin, but once you send the bitcoin, you cannot claw back the transaction, especially once a confirmation or two has happened.


(04-08-2020, 05:08 AM)dingdongditch Wrote: If the landlord or police found it, it would be confiscated.

Sure... very similar. With bitcoin they may need a bit more sophistication to make sure that they have the private keys


(04-08-2020, 05:08 AM)dingdongditch Wrote: If he put it in a bank, laundering regulations would have popped him.

Sure, sometimes you can transact in small amounts to not draw attention to yourself, but yeah, with 6,000 bitcoin it seems a bit careless to keep them in one spot (supposedly).


(04-08-2020, 05:08 AM)dingdongditch Wrote: Also you could just do cloud backup, even with a retail product.

I am not sure what you mean by "cloud backup" because sure the bitcoin are actually held on the blockchain and they are in the cloud across the whole network, and various kinds of wallets and protocols have differing ways to manage keys or to keep backups, and some wallets and interfaces are more user friendly than others, so for example, if a government seized someone's bitcoin private keys, they might need to move the bitcoin to a new bitcoin address which is under the control of a different wallet (in which they have the private keys) as soon feasible because otherwise, if someone else has a backup of those private keys, the bitcoins might get moved before the government agent truly has ensured that they have sole control over the bitcoins (through their own private keys or private keys that are made specifically for that particular transaction).



(04-08-2020, 05:08 AM)dingdongditch Wrote: My criticism of BTC is ACH fees are less than mining fees

ACH fees are not bitcoin.... they are fees that are used when interacting with bank transfers. So many times there are systems in place that allow for the ACH fees to be free between certain kinds of institutions and certain movement of your money will therefore be free, but you are still dealing with a third party that could interfere with your transaction or even require a lot of knowledge about you or your transaction before allowing it to go through.

Mining fees are going to vary according to how much the network is being used or spammed, and there could be some confusion regarding how to attempt to use the fees to your advantage or to attempt to get the best rates, and of course, if you are dealing with someone else, then you may need to negotiate the fees, especially since the fee set up will be controlled by the sender and can be manually adjusted depending how high of a priority that the sender gives to the transaction going through quickly.

So, yeah, there are on chain transactions and this is also the building of supplementary models, too, such as lightning network, liquid and other developmental second-layer projects that attempt to bring fees down but are still fairly cumbersome systems in terms of user interface and wallet options that are available to regular people and merchants and surely some of the development tools can be used by geeks, but is not so easy that grandma can easily figure it out or to even have a lot of options for using those kinds of second layer options, even if she could figure out the technicalities.


(04-08-2020, 05:08 AM)dingdongditch Wrote: and BTC doesn't provide any interest in most use cases.

Interest seems to be a ploy to trick you out of your money, so if you are getting obsessed about whether bitcoin earns interest or a dividend, then you likely do not sufficiently understand the value that bitcoin brings in terms of sound money, so it seems quite likely that bitcoin is going to appreciate in value way the fuck more than any "interest bearing" or "dividend bearing" asset, but if you want to get tricked out of your bitcoin because you are pursing those kinds of nonsense insecurities, then that is your choice.

On the other hand, there are some products that are in development in bitcoin land that allow you to lend your bitcoin without giving up private keys, and so there are some attempts at creative thinking in terms of some of those kinds of products that might come available in the future, but still I would not get too distracted and potentially tricked out of your bitcoin or end up investing in some kind of shitcoin or other project merely because you believe that bitcoin is inferior in the interest/dividend bearing department.

(04-08-2020, 05:08 AM)dingdongditch Wrote: Rigs are owned by Chinese hedge funds so it's just a less accountable World Bank.

I doubt that you really understand bitcoin if you are believing that either miners in china control bitcoin or that bitcoin can be fairly characterized as some kind of entity that is controlled by any kind of small group of people. You either are getting bitcoin mixed up with other cryptos (aka shitcoins) or you really don't understand what bitcoin is or how it works, even if you have some superficial ideas and you think that you know.

By the way, you are not related to billy ding dong, I presume? Your name is similar.. just a coincidence, perhaps?


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Nolimitz - 04-08-2020

@contrarian brandt is technical analyst...and having followed him for some time he has been wrong on BTC price action multiple times (as is the nature of technical analysis)

What is the alternative investment you suggest in the current macro environment? Gold? Good luck getting physical gold right now.

Cashing out and timing bottoms and tops is useless in all markets, why? Because a majority of people can't do it.

I disagree with you...now is the time to be accumulating bitcoin...when there is fear in the market. A drop lower presents an even better opportunity to accumulate.

Again, can you really match the risk/reward of bitcoin with another asset class?

No.

Higher returns, maybe...but relative to risk....bitcoin is the ultimate "asymmetric risk". Whether you like it or not BTC is supported by a stubborn minority of believers (like JJ who you are trashing above)..."the stubborn minority" is a powerful force. These are individuals that will not sell their BTC even in the event of large price drops as we saw in the middle of march....if you look at the data there are a large number of BTC wallets that saw no movement. This will eventually result in a favorable inflow to outflow ratio as retail jumps in (they will). Human behavior is predictable.

Institutional money is not even close to being fully involved in this space. Family offices, hedge funds, etc. To tell people to cash out now is just wrong in my opinion.

To each their own.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Contrarian Expatriate - 04-08-2020

(04-08-2020, 10:29 PM)Nolimitz Wrote: @contrarian brandt is technical analyst...and having followed him for some time he has been wrong on BTC price action multiple times (as is the nature of technical analysis)

What is the alternative investment you suggest in the current macro environment? Gold? Good luck getting physical gold right now.
I don't consider Bitcoin to be an investment.  It is speculation.
I have been posting about what actual investments guys should be loading up on ad nauseum.  No need to be the broken record here.  I just hate seeing JJG using this forum to repeat untruths to the point where some guys are beginning to believe it.
That old quote of, "If you repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth" is the purpose of this thread.  
There have been more losers in Bitcoin then winners.  What you have not yet cashed out does not count because it has not yet been realized.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Nolimitz - 04-09-2020

"More losers in bitcoin than winners"...sure, those focused on leverage trading, timing markets, and gambling their money on lowly liquid alt-coins will lose. However...it is plain to see that anyone who has held bitcoin for 4 years or more has been in profit, and I believe this will also be applicable to those who bought in late 2017 in the next couple of years (my view).

What is the "lie" you are referring to?

Bitcoin is speculative in the sense that it has not been mass adopted. It has however been around for a decade....and to call it a complete gamble at this point or comparing it to a casino is just not correct.

Bitcoin is here to stay. I have not read your recommendations on the investment thread...I'll check those out at some point. At a quick glance it appears you invest in real estate contrarian. Many have amassed wealth through real estate, so if that works for you cool.

When I first got into bitcoin I thought "bubble"....upon doing my own research, reading books, articles, and learning the fundamentals on bitcoin it is glaringly obvious that this is one of the most disruptive inventions of our time.

To dismiss it as complete "gambling" or "speculation" leads me to believe that you may not have the same grasp as some (that's ok). I just see the need to constantly attack something if you believe it's worthless.

It's like Peter Schiff....the guy tweets about how much of a Ponzi bitcoin is every other day. The guy sells gold....and upon watching one of his livestreams he did not have the technical know-how to open superchats on YT. Obviously, bitcoin isn't for everyone. But if it is such an obvious scam/ponzi/gamble.....then why the need to keep others out of its --->simple common sense will lead them to the same conclusion.

Seems to me like a lot of people want BTC to fail for one reason--> They missed the boat. They didn't jump on at "cheaper price"....and the pain seeing it go higher accumulates. Well, we are still early...and I believe the next year will present a nice opportunity for those who want to INVEST.

I believe in 10 years+ BTC will be a better investment than most real estate opportunities. Yes, I said investment.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Contrarian Expatriate - 04-09-2020

(04-09-2020, 01:44 AM)Nolimitz Wrote: "More losers in bitcoin than winners"...sure, those focused on leverage trading, timing markets, and gambling their money on lowly liquid alt-coins will lose. However...it is plain to see that anyone who has held bitcoin for 4 years or more has been in profit, and I believe this will also be applicable to those who bought in late 2017 in the next couple of years (my view).

What is the "lie" you are referring to?

Bitcoin is speculative in the sense that it has not been mass adopted. It has however been around for a decade....and to call it a complete gamble at this point or comparing it to a casino is just not correct.

Bitcoin is here to stay. I have not read your recommendations on the investment thread...I'll check those out at some point. At a quick glance it appears you invest in real estate contrarian. Many have amassed wealth through real estate, so if that works for you cool.

When I first got into bitcoin I thought "bubble"....upon doing my own research, reading books, articles, and learning the fundamentals on bitcoin it is glaringly obvious that this is one of the most disruptive inventions of our time.

To dismiss it as complete "gambling" or "speculation" leads me to believe that you may not have the same grasp as some (that's ok). I just see the need to constantly attack something if you believe it's worthless.

It's like Peter Schiff....the guy tweets about how much of a Ponzi bitcoin is every other day. The guy sells gold....and upon watching one of his livestreams he did not have the technical know-how to open superchats on YT. Obviously, bitcoin isn't for everyone. But if it is such an obvious scam/ponzi/gamble.....then why the need to keep others out of its --->simple common sense will lead them to the same conclusion.

Seems to me like a lot of people want BTC to fail for one reason--> They missed the boat. They didn't jump on at "cheaper price"....and the pain seeing it go higher accumulates. Well, we are still early...and I believe the next year will present a nice opportunity for those who want to INVEST.

I believe in 10 years+ BTC will be a better investment than most real estate opportunities. Yes, I said investment.
If you guys can't even determine the difference between investment and speculation, then the level of basic investment acumen here is even more novice than I thought.   That's a clue why basic axioms don't seem to sink in.


I would LOOOVE Bitcoin to fail, just as I love when other things tank so that I can bottom feed when others have perished so good call there.


But as for your BELIEF that in 10 plus years Bitcoin will have been a better financial move (not investment) than real estate, you just don't know what you're talking about.  How much income will have Bitcoin paid you each month after ten years?  Let me help you with that, NONE!  

In 10 plus years, my holdings will be paying me 5 and 6 figures each month from just rental proceeds (TAX DEFERRED INDEFINITELY) and the values will likely be close to quadruple my initial investment.  That is not to mention the built in raises from rental price increases.

But if you want to hold Bitcoin with the blind hope that it will make you rich one day (while getting nothing from it in the meantime), then go right ahead and take JJG's ridiculous advice and go all in on that "investment."

I am beginning to think that Bitcoin is designed for people too lazy to understand even basic investment finance concepts so they hold onto a cult-like devotion to it as their last-ditch effort to make it big.  Newsflash:  It won't work, but please keep hoping that each month I receive a huge electronic payment and you receive nothing, that you made the better decision with Bitcoin!

"You can lead a horse to water, but only a nutjob like JJG can prevent him from drinking it."


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 04-09-2020

(04-08-2020, 06:46 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(04-08-2020, 05:08 AM)dingdongditch Wrote: That's a strange position for the Nobel Laureate to take. Cash wouldn't have that protection either. If the landlord or police found it, it would be confiscated. If he put it in a bank, laundering regulations would have popped him. Also you could just do cloud backup, even with a retail product.

My criticism of BTC is ACH fees are less than mining fees and BTC doesn't provide any interest in most use cases. Rigs are owned by Chinese hedge funds so it's just a less accountable World Bank.
Good point, but I guess his argument is premised on the fact that most people only hold de minimis amounts of physical cash relative to what Bitcoin holders maintain.  

There are all kinds of ways that you can hold your bitcoin, including wallets that are more portable and easy to carry around, like maybe the amount that you might carry in a wallet or maybe a bit more if you are planning on a BIGGER transaction.

So, bitcoin does not have to be any different from cash, because sometimes someone might be carrying a lot of cash too, but most regular people do not walk around with thousands of dollars of cash on them on a daily basis.

By the way, I may have mentioned this before, but during 2017, I had lost track of the value of some of the coins that I had in one of my wallets, and when BTC had gone up 78x from late 2015 to late 2017, you can imagine that some people, including yours truly, were inadvertently carrying around way more value than they would have intended. So for example, maybe someone might have had 4 bitcoins in a wallet that was around $1,000 ($250 each); however, when BTC went to nearly $20k, all of a sudden the guy is carrying around $80k without having had realized how drastically those coins had gone up in value...and maybe his security of the coins had not gone up as much as it should have gone up based on that price appreciation, including sometimes just moving those coins to a more secure and less portable location.


(04-08-2020, 06:46 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: The seizure of $500 or so in cash is nothing compared to the loss of $50,000 or more worth of Bitcoin.  Also, there is a growing set of examples of people losing Bitcoin fortunes for the most absent-minded of reasons.

Of course, examples are going to increase with the passage of time, and surely some of the wallets are better than they were 6 years ago, and some of the options seem to be better too, and sure it is likely that some of the inadvertency of the problem can become very exacerbated by upwards price volatility, which really is not a bad problem to have, so long as you catch the problem before getting robbed because you are walking around with $49,500 more value than you thought that you had on your person.

Or maybe you create your wallet, and you put $500 on it, but you did not create a back up or you cannot really recall the back up, and if you fuck up by losing the password and you cannot figure out how to open it, you are going to be much more pissed off when you find out that the value had appreciated to $50k, and you were subconsciously thinking about securing $500. That is NOT completely a problem of bitcoin when people fail/refuse to take responsibility, and I suppose some of the examples of extreme losses can teach people (without having to experience the matter themselves) that they need to employ security measures and practices in regards to their bitcoins, and maybe even have plans in the event BTC prices go shooting up, which remains a continued possible dynamic.. even if the direction and degree of future volatility remains currently unknown and merely probabilities and theories regarding future behaviors, various market fundamentals and relationships of asset classes.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Contrarian Expatriate - 04-09-2020

(04-09-2020, 04:04 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(04-08-2020, 06:46 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(04-08-2020, 05:08 AM)dingdongditch Wrote: That's a strange position for the Nobel Laureate to take. Cash wouldn't have that protection either. If the landlord or police found it, it would be confiscated. If he put it in a bank, laundering regulations would have popped him. Also you could just do cloud backup, even with a retail product.

My criticism of BTC is ACH fees are less than mining fees and BTC doesn't provide any interest in most use cases. Rigs are owned by Chinese hedge funds so it's just a less accountable World Bank.
Good point, but I guess his argument is premised on the fact that most people only hold de minimis amounts of physical cash relative to what Bitcoin holders maintain.  

There are all kinds of ways that you can hold your bitcoin, including wallets that are more portable and easy to carry around, like maybe the amount that you might carry in a wallet or maybe a bit more if you are planning on a BIGGER transaction.

So, bitcoin does not have to be any different from cash, because sometimes someone might be carrying a lot of cash too, but most regular people do not walk around with thousands of dollars of cash on them on a daily basis.

By the way, I may have mentioned this before, but during 2017, I had lost track of the value of some of the coins that I had in one of my wallets, and when BTC had gone up 78x from late 2015 to late 2017, you can imagine that some people, including yours truly, were inadvertently carrying around way more value than they would have intended.  So for example, maybe someone might have had 4 bitcoins in a wallet that was around $1,000 ($250 each); however, when BTC went to nearly $20k, all of a sudden the guy is carrying around $80k without having had realized how drastically those coins had gone up in value...and maybe his security of the coins had not gone up as much as it should have gone up based on that price appreciation, including sometimes just moving those coins to a more secure and less portable location.


(04-08-2020, 06:46 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: The seizure of $500 or so in cash is nothing compared to the loss of $50,000 or more worth of Bitcoin.  Also, there is a growing set of examples of people losing Bitcoin fortunes for the most absent-minded of reasons.

Of course, examples are going to increase with the passage of time, and surely some of the wallets are better than they were 6 years ago, and some of the options seem to be better too, and sure it is likely that some of the inadvertency of the problem can become very exacerbated by upwards price volatility, which really is not a bad problem to have, so long as you catch the problem before getting robbed because you are walking around with $49,500 more value than you thought that you had on your person.

Or maybe you create your wallet, and you put $500 on it, but you did not create a back up or you cannot really recall the back up, and if you fuck up by losing the password and you cannot figure out how to open it, you are going to be much more pissed off when you find out that the value had appreciated to $50k, and you were subconsciously thinking about securing $500.  That is NOT completely a problem of bitcoin when people fail/refuse to take responsibility, and I suppose some of the examples of extreme losses can teach people (without having to experience the matter themselves) that they need to employ security measures and practices in regards to their bitcoins, and maybe even have plans in the event BTC prices go shooting up, which remains a continued possible dynamic.. even if the direction and degree of future volatility remains currently unknown and merely probabilities and theories regarding future behaviors, various market fundamentals and relationships of asset classes.
You just don't have a clue do you?  If you don't lose that bizarre Bitcoin Fetish you have, you'll pretty much stay as broke as you are over the long term.

Get a clue about personal finance and wealth-building and just you might have a chance yet (but I doubt it).


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 04-09-2020

(04-08-2020, 08:00 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: Commodity trader Peter Brandt says that he places his bets on Bitcoin (BTC) plunging all the way to zero. 

The drop below $7,500 was an inflection point for the prominent chartist who was bullish on the orange coin just a few months ago.

Might be time to think about cashing most of your Bitcoin out before its cheerleaders like our "friend" JJG have you living in regret later. 

https://u.today/peter-brandt-says-zero-could-be-bitcoins-btc-ultimate-bottom

Gosh, you do have a tendency to find the nutjobs and to cite them as if they know something about bitcoin or its price direction.

Brant talks a lot of nonsense, and nolimitz had already mentioned that.

Regarding whether my purported cheerleading of bitcoin is going to lead STW guys down the wrong path, such as holding too much BTC, they need to consider their positions, if any, and take responsibility for their own choice(s) including choosing whether to take a zero position or sitting on the fence waiting for lower prices or actually engaging in possibly dumb shit behavior of selling at a wrong time out of a belief that either they can buy back lower or that bitcoin is going to zero.



(04-09-2020, 02:40 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(04-09-2020, 01:44 AM)Nolimitz Wrote: [edited out]
If you guys can't even determine the difference between investment and speculation, then the level of basic investment acumen here is even more novice than I thought.   That's a clue why basic axioms don't seem to sink in.

You are so smart, Contrarian, so it sure is nice to have you here to teach us about these kinds of semantical distinctions.

You have been a great teacher, in terms of describing how to approach investments, and your knowledge about bitcoin has been superb too.

I really love your current BTC investment philosophy. Wait until $2k and then do something. That is a really helpful approach.


(04-08-2020, 08:00 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: I would LOOOVE Bitcoin to fail, just as I love when other things tank so that I can bottom feed when others have perished so good call there.

Seems that the odds are against you, but maybe you will get lucky. Never say never.


(04-08-2020, 08:00 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: But as for your BELIEF that in 10 plus years Bitcoin will have been a better financial move (not investment) than real estate, you just don't know what you're talking about. 

Maybe nolimitz was a bit hyperbolic, because I doubt that we really need to get into any kind of dick measuring contest, and surely real estate can have a role in any portfolio, whether you pick the actual property and managing way or paper versions of it. Real estate does tend to be less liquid and has potentials of involving a lot of parties that might screw things up, but it can have a lot of benefits too, including having a place to stay or places to stay if travel ever comes back.

So, yeah, there can be speculation regarding which assets are more suitable for any guy, including how liquid the guy might want to be and also if he believes that he is acquiring the asset in a way that is likely to pay off in the long run, including various risks and expenses.... and having ways to manage or to balance the risks.



(04-08-2020, 08:00 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: How much income will have Bitcoin paid you each month after ten years?  Let me help you with that, NONE!  

How you structure your income off of an asset or whether you need to have income off an asset is discretionary, and if an asset goes up 2x or 3x versus 100x, then it may be better to be in the asset that went up 100x, even if such 100x asset did not pay you any income or dividends.


(04-08-2020, 08:00 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: In 10 plus years, my holdings will be paying me 5 and 6 figures each month from just rental proceeds (TAX DEFERRED INDEFINITELY) and the values will likely be close to quadruple my initial investment.  That is not to mention the built in raises from rental price increases.

Good for you. Don't you have a thread about that topic, somewhere? You might want to start another thread about how much MOAR BIGGER your dick is as compared to the dicks of other STW guys, to the extent that any STW guys would be interested in participating in that topic.

(04-08-2020, 08:00 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: But if you want to hold Bitcoin with the blind hope that it will make you rich one day (while getting nothing from it in the meantime), then go right ahead and take JJG's ridiculous advice and go all in on that "investment."

My advice has been that guys tailor their own approach to their own financial and personal circumstances and at least consider taking some stake in bitcoin, starting out between 1% and 10% of quasi-liquid investment portfolio might be a good starting point for many guys. That is hardly even close to "all in."


(04-08-2020, 08:00 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: I am beginning to think that Bitcoin is designed for people too lazy to understand even basic investment finance concepts so they hold onto a cult-like devotion to it as their last-ditch effort to make it big.  Newsflash:  It won't work, but please keep hoping that each month I receive a huge electronic payment and you receive nothing, that you made the better decision with Bitcoin!

"You can lead a horse to water, but only a nutjob like JJG can prevent him from drinking it."

You are continuing to be repetitious here, Contrarian. No one is suggesting any guy go all into bitcoin, but if any guy wants to go all in that is his choice, and there surely are some guys who do choose to go in something close to that direction. I personally believe that it would be crazy, but some guys have made a lot of money by going in that direction at certain strategic points in bitcoin's history, and perhaps there will be some repeats of that, even though I surely would not recommend that kind of an approach.

You are correct that one good thing about bitcoin is that there can be some great approaches to investing that can pay off quite well without knowing much about investing, but I surely would advise guys to make sure that they are not investing more than they can afford to lose, but surely some guys have gotten rich as fuck by employing a kind of leveraged and more than all in approach... so each guy has to figure out what works for him in terms of his total circumstances including his cash flow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, risk tolerance, timeline and time and skills to research or manage and tweak his portfolio approach and/or trading.

(04-09-2020, 05:25 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(04-09-2020, 04:04 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote: [edited out]
You just don't have a clue do you?  If you don't lose that bizarre Bitcoin Fetish you have, you'll pretty much stay as broke as you are over the long term.

Get a clue about personal finance and wealth-building and just you might have a chance yet (but I doubt it).

Surely you like to just make up shit, and then argue about matters that you have made up as if they were actually facts. Why so desperate, Contrarian? You are desperate to save other guys from bitcoin? yeah right. Rolleyes Rolleyes


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Contrarian Expatriate - 04-09-2020

(04-09-2020, 05:44 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:   You are desperate to save other guys from bitcoin?  yeah right.  Rolleyes  Rolleyes
Quite the contrary.  I would encourage YOU to go all in on Bitcoin so you can serve as an example of what NOT to do.  As for the intelligent guys here, I simply want to provide them with a counterbalance to your foolish, sophomoric cheerleading for Bitcoin.  You come off like a scammer hell bent on pumping and dumping it for your personal benefit.  I'll never give guys of your ilk a pass on that.

What? You say you only support 1% to 10% now?  Ask yourself why you have backpedaled to such a low percentage.  It's because deep down you KNOW there are better ways to big wealth.  Not sure if you are bright enough to take advantage of them, but 10% or below lets me know even you can see some of the wealth-destroying potential of Bitcoin, your bizarre fetish for it notwithstanding.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 04-09-2020

(04-09-2020, 06:00 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(04-09-2020, 05:44 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:   You are desperate to save other guys from bitcoin?  yeah right.  Rolleyes  Rolleyes
Quite the contrary.  I would encourage YOU to go all in on Bitcoin so you can serve as an example of what NOT to do.  

You are fucking quasi-incoherent. Why the fuck would I do something so fucking stupid, when I have largely argued against such an approach for years and years. There are guys who put all their assets into bitcoin, and it is difficult to believe such a roller coaster of a ride, but there is also some aspect of earning money, whether that is earning in bitcoin and then having to convert a portion to dollars on a regular basis to pay for certain expenses that cannot be paid in bitcoin or just figuring out some kind of cashflow, but then just getting stuck when the volatility might become really high and cause the BTC price to dip 85%.

But if some guys have thousands of bitcoin because they bought a large portion of the bitcoin for less than $50 per bitcoin, then it might NOT matter a whole hell of a lot to such guy if he cashes out .2BTC at $20k or 1BTC at $4k... both result in $4k, and if he has several thousand bitcoin, it is not going to make any kind of meaningful difference to him at what price he gets the $4k of value to pay for monthly expenses.



(04-09-2020, 06:00 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: As for the intelligent guys here, I simply want to provide them with a counterbalance to your foolish, sophomoric, cheerleading for Bitcoin.  You come off like a scammer hell bent on pumping and dumping it for your personal benefit.  I'll never give guys of your ilk a pass on that.

Again.. just making shit up. I am sharing information here.. you fucking diptwat. I share information about bitcoin, about my strategy about my history in bitcoin and respond to other posts. At least I am on topic, and you are fucking talking about all kinds of bullshit that is not even this thread including your lame-ass bitcoin investment thesis, which, if even true, is far from even fleshed out or believable. You try to act like you are contributing, but it should be pretty obvious that you are not.. this thread is not even about various ways to invest, you dimwit.. so no one gives any shits about real estate or dividends or any of your other bullshit including your seeming ongoing inability to even describe basic personal investing preparations that might involve guys of differing situations.


(04-09-2020, 06:00 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: What? You say you only support 1% to 10% now? 

That is a starting point. Guys should tailor to their situation. If they don't want to invest in bitcoin, I could give less than two shits, but 1% to 10% remains a good starting point for any guy considering the matter. Furthermore, if a guy is about to die or he does not have his finances in order then he better get his finances in order before putting anything into bitcoin, but in the end guys are going to choose on their own regarding if they want to gamble with bitcoin, which again, I do not recommend gambling strategies, in any investing, including in bitcoin.

(04-09-2020, 06:00 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: Ask yourself why you have backpedaled to such a low percentage.  It's because deep down you KNOW there are better ways to big wealth.  Not sure if you are bright enough to take advantage of them, but 10% or below lets me know even you can see some of the wealth destroying potential of Bitcoin, your bizarre fetish for it notwithstanding.

I doubt I need to repeat myself here in your ongoing twisting of what I had said. I have all kinds of previous posts on the topic. Get a life. Rolleyes


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Contrarian Expatriate - 04-09-2020

(04-09-2020, 06:31 AM)DudeJayJuanGee Wrote:
(04-09-2020, 06:00 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(04-09-2020, 05:44 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:   You are desperate to save other guys from bitcoin?  yeah right.  Rolleyes  Rolleyes
Quite the contrary.  I would encourage YOU to go all in on Bitcoin so you can serve as an example of what NOT to do.  

You are fucking quasi-incoherent.  Why the fuck would I do something so fucking stupid, when I have largely argued against such an approach for years and years.  There are guys who put all their assets into bitcoin, and it is difficult to believe such a roller coaster of a ride, but there is also some aspect of earning money, whether that is earning in bitcoin and then having to convert a portion to dollars on a regular basis to pay for certain expenses that cannot be paid in bitcoin or just figuring out some kind of cashflow, but then just getting stuck when the volatility might become really high and cause the BTC price to dip 85%.

But if some guys have thousands of bitcoin because they bought a large portion of the bitcoin for less than $50 per bitcoin, then it might NOT matter a whole hell of a lot to such guy if he cashes out .2BTC at $20k or 1BTC at $4k... both result in $4k, and if he has several thousand bitcoin, it is not going to make any kind of meaningful difference to him at what price he gets the $4k of value to pay for monthly expenses.



(04-09-2020, 06:00 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: As for the intelligent guys here, I simply want to provide them with a counterbalance to your foolish, sophomoric, cheerleading for Bitcoin.  You come off like a scammer hell bent on pumping and dumping it for your personal benefit.  I'll never give guys of your ilk a pass on that.

Again.. just making shit up.  I am sharing information here.. you fucking diptwat.  I share information about bitcoin, about my strategy about my history in bitcoin and respond to other posts.  At least I am on topic, and you are fucking talking about all kinds of bullshit that is not even this thread including your lame-ass bitcoin investment thesis, which, if even true, is far from even fleshed out or believable.  You try to act like you are contributing, but it should be pretty obvious that you are not.. this thread is not even about various ways to invest, you dimwit.. so no one gives any shits about real estate or dividends or any of your other bullshit including your seeming ongoing inability to even describe basic personal investing preparations that might involve guys of differing situations.  


(04-09-2020, 06:00 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: What? You say you only support 1% to 10% now? 

That is a starting point.  Guys should tailor to their situation.  If they don't want to invest in bitcoin, I could give less than two shits, but 1% to 10% remains a good starting point for any guy considering the matter. Furthermore, if a guy is about to die or he does not have his finances in order then he better get his finances in order before putting anything into bitcoin, but in the end guys are going to choose on their own regarding if they want to gamble with bitcoin, which again, I do not recommend gambling strategies, in any investing, including in bitcoin.

(04-09-2020, 06:00 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: Ask yourself why you have backpedaled to such a low percentage.  It's because deep down you KNOW there are better ways to big wealth.  Not sure if you are bright enough to take advantage of them, but 10% or below lets me know even you can see some of the wealth destroying potential of Bitcoin, your bizarre fetish for it notwithstanding.

I doubt I need to repeat myself here in your ongoing twisting of what I had said.  I have all kinds of previous posts on the topic.  Get a life.   Rolleyes
A telltale sign of someone being “unwell” (in the interest of keeping it polite) is the ease with which he becomes unglued.  Dude, you’re not well and I’m not sure you should even be managing your own portfolio let alone giving advice to others!


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Foothunter - 04-09-2020

Bitcoin isn't there to give you some type of 'income', except if you plan trading with it. Bitcoin is not the same as real estate man and while real estate still can go up, what will happen if the interest rates will drop or if monetary policies will change? With some many unemployed people right now, people who get income from their real estate might not be in a good position. Bitcoin is as we discussed some messages before, a security. If the Euros, Dollars etc fail, Bitcoin is still there and it has potential to go up, because of its mechanics. Most currencies die off because of inflation and Bitcoin is the first system to combat this. Even gold can have inflation. Read about the King of Mali who went to Egypt and what happened with the gold price. There are still so many untouched gold mines, whereas Bitcoin has a clear number 21 million. Not more!


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Rottenapple - 04-09-2020

I've warned both JJG and Contrarian Expatriate as it became clear that a civil discussion is no longer possible between you two. Both made their points, I suggest JJG continues with the Crypto related information and Contrarian Expatriate can continue to suggest alternative investment strategies, both of which have been useful for other members. No reason for this to become a personal issue since we all know there are very few hard truths when it comes to investing strategies, time will tell what works and what doesn't. Or maybe both strategies will work or maybe neither, who knows.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Contrarian Expatriate - 04-09-2020

(04-09-2020, 09:47 AM)Obermarschall Wrote: Bitcoin isn't there to give you some type of 'income', except if you plan trading with it. Bitcoin is not the same as real estate man and while real estate still can go up, what will happen if the interest rates will drop or if monetary policies will change? With some many unemployed people right now, people who get income from their real estate might not be in a good position. Bitcoin is as we discussed some messages before, a security. If the Euros, Dollars etc fail, Bitcoin is still there and it has potential to go up, because of its mechanics. Most currencies die  off because of inflation and Bitcoin is the first system to combat this. Even gold can have inflation. Read about the King of Mali who went to Egypt and what happened with the gold price. There are still so many untouched gold mines, whereas Bitcoin has a clear number 21 million. Not more!

That is exactly my point; Bitcoin is not income so you are depriving yourself of YEARS of monthly ongoing income while you are hoping your Bitcoin goes up in value.  That is why Bitcoin is speculation not investment.  We agree there.

What you are not understanding is that when I say real estate, it is not as you are describing it.  If less people can buy homes now, that plays right into the hands of multi-family property owners, whether you own outright or you own as part of a syndication of pooled owners.  Why?  Because there will be more demand for apartments and rents can be increased to account for the increased demand.  As for higher unemployment, it means that less people will be buying houses and some will LOSE their homes thereby again increasing demand for apartments where rents can be increased.

With Bitcoin, all you have is something that goes up and goes down, period.  With multi-family properties, you have heaps of monthly rental income coming in but also the mostly ups of the building values which are yielding even more rents.  So a recession or a depression is the IDEAL time to be taking advantage of multi-family property investing.

The problem is that most people think real estate investment means buying a single home or single rental property.  No.  That is small potatoes.  You have to think on a macro level and put your money to work in ways Bitcoin cannot do for you.

Think of it this way, with Bitcoin, the value simply goes up and down and you sit by and watch it.  With Multifamily real estate, the property creeps mostly up (historically speaking), yet you are also getting paid handsomely each month because you own it or a piece of it.  

It is not even close, Multi-family real estate blows Bitcoin away to smithereens.  If you can't buy a building or afford to enter a syndication deal, avail yourself of the many real estate equity crowdfunding platforms that I talked about on my wealth thread so you can jump in on these opportunities with as little cash as you can afford.