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The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Printable Version

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RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Lampwick - 02-25-2020

(02-25-2020, 06:22 AM)Rottenapple Wrote: Wonder what Corona might do with the Bitcoin price? Will it go down as the stockmarket or the opposite.

Same as other risk assets.  Except this one has the extra overhang of pending regulation, investigations, and a class action lawsuit.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 02-25-2020

(02-25-2020, 04:32 PM)Lampwick Wrote:
(02-25-2020, 06:22 AM)Rottenapple Wrote: Wonder what Corona might do with the Bitcoin price? Will it go down as the stockmarket or the opposite.

Same as other risk assets.  Except this one has the extra overhang of pending regulation, investigations, and a class action lawsuit.

Even with you adding a few more aspects of possible factors that influence bitcoin's possible future performance, Lampwick, you still did not really narrow in on an attempt at responding to Rottenapple's question.. but I do agree with the concept that bitcoin price correlation is multi-factored, and goes beyond the possible economic effects of Corona virus.

On the other hand, it also goes much beyond possible regulatory affects, too and especially as you seem to be focusing on a lot of fear-mongering ideas related to bitfinex and tether, which remains only a part of the whole bitcoin ecosystem, and there have been discussions for years about bitfinex/tether taking down bitcoin... blah blah blah, which ultimately adds up to a bunch of nothing.  Surely hopefully not too many guys are scared away by a few narrow concepts and articles that seem to exaggerate seemingly nonsensical points, and of course any myth is going to have some truth aspects to it.. but should these kinds of happenings stop guys from taking a meaningful stake in bitcoin?

And, the supposed threats that you listed are far from having any direct correlation on bitcoin, especially since bitcoin remains multi-jurisdictional and a lot of the threats that you mentioned are both exaggerated and don't have any kind of clear end game, in terms of how they are going to play out and even how they would play out if the more draconian aspects were to come to fruition.  In other words, there are both wacamole aspects of bitcoin and there are also incentives built into bitcoin that cause both governments and even financial institutions to NOT necessarily be incentivized to destroy bitcoin, even if some of their counter-parties might come to differing conclusions.  

Let's say for example the USA government could get its shit together and to act in some kind of unifying way to work against bitcoin (and that is a BIG ASS IF), then that surely would not mean that other countries and financial institutions are going to fall inline.  Do you think that they could just shut down bitcoin or to disincentivize people from using bitcoin to such an extent that the whole world is going to fall into place?  Do you really think that people are going to tolerate having their internet shut down in order to fight such a battle against bitcoin when there are actually aspects of bitcoin that work to peoples better interest, so why would people agree to such an attack on bitcoin?  Lot's of assumptions if you believe that bitcoin is on any kind of meaningful dying trajectory.

So, getting back to Rottenapple's original question concerning the extent to which economic impacts of corona virus are going to be correlated to bitcoin's performance in any kind of meaningful way or not, and I personally doubt that we can really know with any kind of certainty, and in my thinking, there continues to be a lot of competing considerations that remain much more important, even if many guys might not buy into the significance of such BTC price performance models..  

In other words, tentatively, I am thinking that bitcoin could give less than two ratt's asses to a variety of ongoing events, wether we are talking about the economic effects of corona virus, or regulatory behaviors or the behaviors of parties involved in exchanges or  lawsuits around such.  Sure in the short term, sometimes there are going to be impacts on the price, but there still remain pretty decently strong forces that are motivating BTC's price around price prediction models such as 1) stock to flow, 2) 4 year fractal and 3) network adoption affects that relate to s-curve exponential growth.  

Of course, there are going to be forces that try to both spread fud and engage in behaviors to either cause impressions that such price prediction models are  not true or even to attempt to have success to make the price prediction models to NOT be true.  I personally doubt that those efforts are going to be effective in the long term, even if in the short term they might be able to cause BTC's price performance to underperform what the models suggest should be the current price - even though currently, BTC prices seem to be a bit ahead and a bit above price levels that the models would suggest... so yeah there may be just some natural room for downward correction in the BTC price in the short term, but we are still seeming to be in a good place....


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Contrarian Expatriate - 02-25-2020

(02-25-2020, 06:22 AM)Rottenapple Wrote: Wonder what Corona might do with the Bitcoin price? Will it go down as the stockmarket or the opposite.

I was thinking it would go up since it is touted as a doomsday safehaven, but so much for that!

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoins-coronavirus-selloff-throws-cold-water-on-safe-haven-argument


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Contrarian Expatriate - 02-27-2020

While stocks are tanking of late, they are still not yet in correction territory (down 10%-19%)  However, Bitcoin is down 22% in February alone.

I turns out it is more correlated with stock market moves than I ever anticipated.  I do hope the bottom drops out on BTC because I still hope to bottom feed when it hits $2000 again.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Nolimitz - 02-27-2020

@Contrarian

Hear what you're saying. But zooming out bitcoin is still up over 100% year on year, so a 20-30% retracement is not that out of the ordinary.

Market sentiment is resetting towards fear at the moment. This is healthy considering the run up in early February.

I bought bitcoin today.

And while know one knows how far this retracement goes...the zone I am paying close attention to is 8100-8300. The approximate 20 week moving average is in that region. In BTC bull markets the 20 week has been a reliable support zone.

Of course I don't know what the near future holds for BTC...but zooming out this is still a nascent asset class. The addressable market for store of value is in the 100's of trillions.

In response to BTC and stocks moving in the same direction at this moment-->Fear. The great debate is whether BTC is a risk on or risk off asset...

Due to the recent drop in the face of coronavirus many are questioning BTC's function as a store of value and countering "uncorrelated". But few are pointing out that this could be a healthy retracement in a bull market.

My opinion is that in the long-run as adoption grows bitcoin will become a risk-off asset. Right now that is uncertain as there are still many hurdles bitcoin must overcome (that's the risk).

No risk, no reward.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Contrarian Expatriate - 02-27-2020

(02-27-2020, 06:38 AM)Nolimitz Wrote: @Contrarian

Hear what you're saying. But zooming out bitcoin is still up over 100% year on year, so a 20-30% retracement is not that out of the ordinary.

Market sentiment is resetting towards fear at the moment. This is healthy considering the run up in early February.

I bought bitcoin today.

And while know one knows how far this retracement goes...the zone I am paying close attention to is  8100-8300. The approximate 20 week moving average is in that region. In BTC bull markets the 20 week has been a reliable support zone.

Of course I don't know what the near future holds for BTC...but zooming out this is still a nascent asset class. The addressable market for store of value is in the 100's of trillions.

In response to BTC and stocks moving in the same direction at this moment-->Fear. The great debate is whether BTC is a risk on or risk off asset...

Due to the recent drop in the face of coronavirus many are questioning BTC's function as a store of value and countering "uncorrelated". But few are pointing out that this could be a healthy retracement in a bull market.  

My opinion is that in the long-run as adoption grows bitcoin will become a risk-off asset. Right now that is uncertain as there are still many hurdles bitcoin must overcome (that's the risk).

No risk, no reward.
Well doomsday fear is supposed to be what makes Bitcoin RISE, not fall.  Gold has been on the rise during this plummeting because it is considered a safe haven just as Bitcoin was said to be.  The fact that we are seeing Bitcoin FALL when the market falls does not bode well for it in my opinion.   Instead of fear, I think it is profit-taking to be able to jump back into the stock market at bargain prices.   

You mentioned that it's up 100% on the year, but that's deceptive because it's STILL down over 50% from its 2017 highs.

Again, if I see blood in the water again at around 2000, I might get back in at that level.  Short of that, I prefer to keep my bigger investments out of the public markets and in things that actually pay me each month instead of Bitcoin which is a purely speculative play that does not.

Yes, risk is important, but smartly-mitigated risk is of the essence here.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 03-05-2020

(02-25-2020, 07:55 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(02-25-2020, 06:22 AM)Rottenapple Wrote: Wonder what Corona might do with the Bitcoin price? Will it go down as the stockmarket or the opposite.

I was thinking it would go up since it is touted as a doomsday safehaven, but so much for that!

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoins-coronavirus-selloff-throws-cold-water-on-safe-haven-argument

You were not thinking that bitcoin was going to go up as a safe haven asset.  You have been a doom and gloom bitcoin naysayer from the start.  You seem inclined to identify anything that you can as a potential negative, and then make it out to be more than it is.  So there is that.   Tongue

(02-27-2020, 03:01 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: While stocks are tanking of late, they are still not yet in correction territory (down 10%-19%)  However, Bitcoin is down 22% in February alone.

I turns out it is more correlated with stock market moves than I ever anticipated.  I do hope the bottom drops out on BTC because I still hope to bottom feed when it hits $2000 again.

Good luck if you are attempting to describe any kind of meaningful correlation based on short term price moves. You are going to need it, because you are quite likely to be either wrong or get your ass handed to you if you are long-term investing based on those kinds of conclusions. Now, in the shorter term, on the other hand, you might get lucky here and there with those kinds of likely to be wrong assessments.

(02-27-2020, 06:38 AM)Nolimitz Wrote: @Contrarian

Hear what you're saying. But zooming out bitcoin is still up over 100% year on year, so a 20-30% retracement is not that out of the ordinary.

Market sentiment is resetting towards fear at the moment. This is healthy considering the run up in early February.

I bought bitcoin today.

And while know one knows how far this retracement goes...the zone I am paying close attention to is  8100-8300. The approximate 20 week moving average is in that region. In BTC bull markets the 20 week has been a reliable support zone.

I agree with everything you said, Nolimitz, except perhaps that you seem to be giving too much benefit of the doubt to Contrarian Expatriate.... hahahahaha

(02-27-2020, 06:38 AM)Nolimitz Wrote: Of course I don't know what the near future holds for BTC...but zooming out this is still a nascent asset class. The addressable market for store of value is in the 100's of trillions.

Exactamente! Zooming out is going to tell guys a whole hell of a lot more than focusing on short term moves. Maybe the zoom-out button does not function properly for some peeps.


(02-27-2020, 06:38 AM)Nolimitz Wrote: In response to BTC and stocks moving in the same direction at this moment-->Fear. The great debate is whether BTC is a risk on or risk off asset...

Due to the recent drop in the face of coronavirus many are questioning BTC's function as a store of value and countering "uncorrelated". But few are pointing out that this could be a healthy retracement in a bull market.  

Of course, there can be some short-term BTC price correlations with various other assets, and even with the economy overall (largely reflected in the value of the dollar and stocks), but what the fuck do people expect? BTC price to just go shooting off into the sunset in some kind of unsustainable direction?

Largely there have been ups and downs in various places, and various periods of price performance that can be looked at or zoomed into or out of, but a fairly significant BTC price move, recently, seems to be that we had about a 63% price appreciation between mid-December and mid February (from $6,425 to $10,500) in two months. So, after mid-February, we had some meaningful BTC price correction that could have gone down way the fuck further, even going down to somewhere near its $6,425 starting point, and still been bullish as fuck.

Yeah, we got down to about $8,410... and maybe we are going to go down more, yet I have difficulties trying to attribute too much premature assessments about those kinds of price moves justifying long term "correlation" even if there is likely to be some short term meaning in which opportunities exist for whales and or just various short term public sentiment to move the price a bit in the downward direction in the short term.

Of course, there are other things going on in bitcoin too, including the behavior of froth in the various shit coins that might be worthy of flushing out a bit, but short term BTC price moves are hardly even deviating from various longer term BTC prediction models that have already been described and are likely much more telling then the short term noise. If anything we are a bit a head of schedule and a bit more bullish than the models would suggest, but I doubt that any of that really justifies that either a large correction will come or that we are not capable of continuing up in the mid-term.

Although, I do tentatively believe that bitcoin is NOT quite ready to just jump into reserve currency status which would likely be the result if some bullish scenario were to occur, which seem to be the scenario that Contrarian Expatriate expects is necessary to occur in order for BTC to actually be or serve as a non-correlated asset, which seems to be a strawman assertion, at best.

Hardly anyone knows what the fuck bitcoin is, in terms of level of adoption, and we are still likely in need to fight several more regulatory attempt battles before certain status quo government and financial institutions are going to give up, so we seem to have a long way to go before bitcoin comes anywhere near reserve currency status or even slips too solidly into a picture of obvious non-correlated asset status.... Anyhow, we are likely to have a lot more ups and downs along the way and confusion about bitcoin's noncorrelated posture in this matter, and it's noncorrelated are not going to be too obvious to many folks, except perhaps to a few folks who study further into it, and whose ranks are inevitably increasing and continuing to increase in a kind of Lindy effect way.

In other words, DCA and buying on dips continues to be a solid long term strategy, and even valuing wealth in bitcoin in such a way that you are trying to continue to build your bitcoin stash...


(02-27-2020, 06:38 AM)Nolimitz Wrote: My opinion is that in the long-run as adoption grows bitcoin will become a risk-off asset. Right now that is uncertain as there are still many hurdles bitcoin must overcome (that's the risk).

No risk, no reward.

Yep. If people cannot recognize some of the opportunities in continuing to get into bitcoin, even during these kinds of seemingly confusing and uncertain times, they will likely be kicking themselves later with the realization that currently, we are experiencing bargain prices, and that as bitcoin grows, maybe 100x or even 1000x from now, the market cap and various other dominance aspects are likely going to cause bitcoin to be a much more obvious place to put your money, even though the future price appreciation is NOT likely to be as great, but there will certainly be a lot more confidence that will be present when bitcoin passes certain higher levels of adoption (which involves higher prices and higher market cap, too).

(02-27-2020, 07:15 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(02-27-2020, 06:38 AM)Nolimitz Wrote: [edited out]
Well doomsday fear is supposed to be what makes Bitcoin RISE, not fall.  Gold has been on the rise during this plummeting because it is considered a safe haven just as Bitcoin was said to be.  The fact that we are seeing Bitcoin FALL when the market falls does not bode well for it in my opinion.   Instead of fear, I think it is profit-taking to be able to jump back into the stock market at bargain prices.   

Good luck with that seemingly spin of a myopic perspective.

(02-27-2020, 07:15 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: You mentioned that it's up 100% on the year, but that's deceptive because it's STILL down over 50% from its 2017 highs.

Oh great. You know how to zoom, but you still are coming up with deluded nonsense because you are picking the "highs of 2017) as your self-serving and non-representative starting point. Wonder how that is going to work for you? Also, I wonder how you could be serious, if you are picking the high of a peak to assess bitcoin when that 2017 peak was the culmination of a 78x-ish price appreciation that had taken place over the previous 2 years, from late 2015 to late 2017..... but you would rather start from late 2017... that makes a lot of sense, right?

(02-27-2020, 07:15 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: Again, if I see blood in the water again at around 2000, I might get back in at that level. 

Report back and let us know how that goes for you.

Seems to me that guys are going to get quite lucky to be able to see prices below $6,425... so it is seeming quite likely, or at least greater than 50/50 that the bottom is in.... , so betting on even lower numbers seems to be quite pie in the sky, if not stupid. Frequently, guys need to consider that they are not betting on some kind of pie in the sky scenario and planning their long term finances around pie in the sky views, but instead considering more likely scenarios including the fact that bitcoin seems to present one of the best investments of a lifetime, and you don't even necessarily need to take a large stake or to engage in gambling behavior to have decent chances of being able to profit from bitcoin whether merely hedging or employing more aggressive investment tactics.

Also, bitcoin could give less than two shits about whether any guy here believes or is able to identify the value proposition, and surely there are a lot of people who have been investing into bitcoin over its 10 years that do not necessarily understand a lot of aspects of bitcoin (including yours truly), but as any guy begins his investing and/or hedging into bitcoin, he can study bitcoin to determine whether and how to tweak his plan as he is stacking sats (accumulating bitcoin) at a rate that is too his level of comfort, and abilities.


(02-27-2020, 07:15 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: Short of that, I prefer to keep my bigger investments out of the public markets and in things that actually pay me each month instead of Bitcoin which is a purely speculative play that does not.

Good for you.... but sounds like a dumb kind of thinking to me... especially if you are valuing your wealth in dollars.. which seems to also be a kind of short-term perspective that is not going to work out too well. But, hey, to each their own.

(02-27-2020, 07:15 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: Yes, risk is important, but smartly-mitigated risk is of the essence here.

Of course, no one is suggesting to put vast amounts of investment into bitcoin, but each guy is going to make his choice. I personally recommend 1% to 10% into bitcoin as a starting point, and for guys to tailor to their own situation.. and to study and to tweak their knowledge and approach along the way. Guys also might decide to go outside of that suggested starting out range and it even might make sense to go outside such suggested starting range, even prudent in their own circumstances.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 03-05-2020

Here's a nice little article from about a week ago about retail bitcoins bought through Square, and interesting quantity of bitcoins considering that square only entered the in about the past two years.


https://www.theblockcrypto.com/amp/post/57083/square-sold-over-half-a-billion-worth-of-bitcoin-in-2019-and-outpaced-broader-crypto-exchange-volume-growth-in-4q?__twitter_impression=true

[Image: sadfsadfsdaf.png]


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 03-05-2020

Here's an article from about one week ago to bolster the 1% to 10% investment in bitcoin idea.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/virgin-galactic-ceo-everyone-should-have-1-of-their-assets-in-bitcoin


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Nolimitz - 03-05-2020

A couple of podcast episodes I found interesting

First from Steven Livera's podcast. In this episode the stock to flow model is discussed (potential levels in which the SF model must reach in order to remain valid)

https://open.spotify.com/episode/6u5Z2U5L7B3zYdtNZAsWOQ?si=fp3vK9RTQIuNafpS98bihQ

Next from We Study Billionaires podcast. The legality of bitcoin discussed. Questions like "Can bitcoin be banned?" (Spoiler: It can't), "How will BTC be treated as a legal asset"...very interesting.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/3Bm46tVCaNfkrsT8Hl6O35?si=rSXkOGoUTb22cwo43KX_5Q


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 03-06-2020

Here's a pretty rainbow chart.

[Image: image-84.png]

I am not sure if i believe the placement of the lines, but it looks nice... It appears from the website that they periodically update this chart.

https://www.blockchaincenter.net/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - SC87 - 03-06-2020

JJG don’t you think 1-10% investment in BTC is pretty low? You seem to be one of the more confident people in BTC long term, at least on here.

I guess everyone is different but I’d be confident enough to “bet the farm” on BTC and various shitcoins as you call them.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 03-06-2020

(03-06-2020, 01:06 AM)SC87 Wrote: JJG don’t you think 1-10% investment in BTC is pretty low? You seem to be one of the more confident people in BTC long term, at least on here.

I am suggesting 1% to 10% as a generic kind of starting point, and I am also suggesting that people should try to have a 4-5 year minimum investment horizon.

Of course, individuals should tailor to their own circumstances, and as they start to invest it might end up being prudent for them to go beyond 10%, or to make some other tailored considerations.


(03-06-2020, 01:06 AM)SC87 Wrote: I guess everyone is different but I’d be confident enough to “bet the farm” on BTC and various shitcoins as you call them.

Betting the farm can be quite risky, especially if we are talking about putting new money into BTC. On the other hand, I would suggest that if any guy started out with a more modest investment of 1% to 10% and their BTC portion gained in value to 50% to 80%, I would not necessarily be suggesting to reallocate to come back down to the 1% to 10% investment range, especially if the guy got to the position through BTC appreciation and those other investments can likely sustain him in a kind of meaningful way, in case BTC were to go to zero or some close approximation of zero.

I have said this several times that in no fucking way would I suggest that guys place any kind of confidence in any of the other shitcoins to engage in similar kinds of assessments, because they are all shit coins and scams and do no have hardly any kind of future confidence value. So, shitcoins, to the extent to which they are invested in at all, need to be considered in other ways, and I don't really want to get into too much discussion about how those other ways might be in this thread, except to merely assert that each and any of them are likely short term rather than long term investments, but if some guys are already set in bitcoin, there could be ways to kind of dabble in them in both short term and long term ways... but why talk about those kinds of various different considerations here?

One other point regarding shitcoins is that despite some of the lame-ass and misleading representations that a lot or them make about some kind of investment thesis that might allow them to prosper or survive, even if bitcoin dies (or because bitcoin dies) likely damned close to every single one of them is dependent upon the survival and prosperity of bitcoin for them to even have a scintila of a chance to prosper.. so investing in shitcoins is adding risk upon already risky (ie. bitcoin is already risky).

Hopefully, that mostly explains my position, but if we eliminate shitcoins from the picture, and you want to get into your betting the farm thesis, I would not mind exploring that kind of an approach. As long as you are sufficiently accounting for your own situation such as other investments, cash flow, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, risk tolerance, timeline and skills and abilities to manage your portfolio and research/tweak. I really doubt that you are really "betting the [whole] farm" because that would likely mean that you are gambling rather than engaging in meaningful prudence, but if you have a reasonable thesis that involves "betting the farm" that ends up being sensible, then I would not mind hearing about what that is... or how it might play out in your own circumstances. Please keep in mind, SC87, that there are likely ways to describe your own particular approach without giving away too much (and hopefully none) OPsec type information.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 03-06-2020

Here's another nice looking graph that shows the prices and halvening stacked above each other.

https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1233435508438515712

[Image: ER4LDnfU4AMDW6n?format=jpg&name=small]


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Contrarian Expatriate - 03-06-2020

(03-05-2020, 03:28 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: I personally recommend 1% to 10% into bitcoin as a starting point.
As an Accredited Investor (do you even know what that is?), it is not a productive use of my time to explain basic wealth axioms to Bitcoin fanatics with an almost brainwashed view.  But since I actually care about the serious Swoopers here who actually want to join the ranks of the legitimately wealthy, I will say this.    

Your Bitcoin ride is going to be a roller coaster of emotional highs and lows till one day you'll realize you've wasted precious time and compound interest opportunities and you'll still be what I consider "BROKE."

Again, 10% of an investment portfolio in Bitcoin MIGHT be feasible when it hits 2000 again.  Right now, it is wasted time and opportunity when you could be living high on the hog on monthly passive income.  By the way, my monthly passive income is at the five figures level and growing.  If all I held were Bitcoin, my monthly passive income would be a big, fat ZERO.

You clearly need to get yourself some professional investment advice from a family office type advisor before you look back in 20 years and realize that your ill-advised Bitcoin obsession was a complete rip off and you have next to nothing to show for it.  But having to work for the rest of your life is a fitting penalty for sophomoric, narrow-mindedness about investing.  

If Bitcoin remains your primary investment choice, you're almost guaranteed to remain as bitter and broke as you are today young man.  

Smarten up if you want to get wealthy and retire young.  Some of us are living proof of that.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - churros - 03-06-2020

(03-06-2020, 07:40 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(03-05-2020, 03:28 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: I personally recommend 1% to 10% into bitcoin as a starting point.
As an Accredited Investor (do you even know what that is?), it is not a productive use of my time to explain basic wealth axioms to Bitcoin fanatics with an almost brainwashed view.  But since I actually care about the serious Swoopers here who actually want to join the ranks of the legitimately wealthy, I will say this.    

Your Bitcoin ride is going to be a roller coaster of emotional highs and lows till one day you'll realize you've wasted precious time and compound interest opportunities and you'll still be what I consider "BROKE."

Again, 10% of an investment portfolio in Bitcoin MIGHT be feasible when it hits 2000 again.  Right now, it is wasted time and opportunity when you could be living high on the hog on monthly passive income.  By the way, my monthly passive income is at the five figures level and growing.  If all I held were Bitcoin, my monthly passive income would be a big, fat ZERO.

You clearly need to get yourself some professional investment advice from a family office type advisor before you look back in 20 years and realize that your ill-advised Bitcoin obsession was a complete rip off and you have next to nothing to show for it.  But having to work for the rest of your life is a fitting penalty for sophomoric, narrow-mindedness about investing.  

If Bitcoin remains your primary investment choice, you're almost guaranteed to remain as bitter and broke as you are today young man.  

Smarten up if you want to get wealthy and retire young.  Some of us are living proof of that.

Why don't you bust out a datasheet on practical investing?


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Contrarian Expatriate - 03-06-2020

(03-06-2020, 07:46 AM)churros Wrote:
(03-06-2020, 07:40 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(03-05-2020, 03:28 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: I personally recommend 1% to 10% into bitcoin as a starting point.
As an Accredited Investor (do you even know what that is?), it is not a productive use of my time to explain basic wealth axioms to Bitcoin fanatics with an almost brainwashed view.  But since I actually care about the serious Swoopers here who actually want to join the ranks of the legitimately wealthy, I will say this.    

Your Bitcoin ride is going to be a roller coaster of emotional highs and lows till one day you'll realize you've wasted precious time and compound interest opportunities and you'll still be what I consider "BROKE."

Again, 10% of an investment portfolio in Bitcoin MIGHT be feasible when it hits 2000 again.  Right now, it is wasted time and opportunity when you could be living high on the hog on monthly passive income.  By the way, my monthly passive income is at the five figures level and growing.  If all I held were Bitcoin, my monthly passive income would be a big, fat ZERO.

You clearly need to get yourself some professional investment advice from a family office type advisor before you look back in 20 years and realize that your ill-advised Bitcoin obsession was a complete rip off and you have next to nothing to show for it.  But having to work for the rest of your life is a fitting penalty for sophomoric, narrow-mindedness about investing.  

If Bitcoin remains your primary investment choice, you're almost guaranteed to remain as bitter and broke as you are today young man.  

Smarten up if you want to get wealthy and retire young.  Some of us are living proof of that.

Why don't you bust out a datasheet on practical investing?
Not at all a bad idea actually.....


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Foothunter - 03-06-2020

(03-06-2020, 08:26 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(03-06-2020, 07:46 AM)churros Wrote:
(03-06-2020, 07:40 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(03-05-2020, 03:28 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: I personally recommend 1% to 10% into bitcoin as a starting point.
As an Accredited Investor (do you even know what that is?), it is not a productive use of my time to explain basic wealth axioms to Bitcoin fanatics with an almost brainwashed view.  But since I actually care about the serious Swoopers here who actually want to join the ranks of the legitimately wealthy, I will say this.    

Your Bitcoin ride is going to be a roller coaster of emotional highs and lows till one day you'll realize you've wasted precious time and compound interest opportunities and you'll still be what I consider "BROKE."

Again, 10% of an investment portfolio in Bitcoin MIGHT be feasible when it hits 2000 again.  Right now, it is wasted time and opportunity when you could be living high on the hog on monthly passive income.  By the way, my monthly passive income is at the five figures level and growing.  If all I held were Bitcoin, my monthly passive income would be a big, fat ZERO.

You clearly need to get yourself some professional investment advice from a family office type advisor before you look back in 20 years and realize that your ill-advised Bitcoin obsession was a complete rip off and you have next to nothing to show for it.  But having to work for the rest of your life is a fitting penalty for sophomoric, narrow-mindedness about investing.  

If Bitcoin remains your primary investment choice, you're almost guaranteed to remain as bitter and broke as you are today young man.  

Smarten up if you want to get wealthy and retire young.  Some of us are living proof of that.

Why don't you bust out a datasheet on practical investing?
Not at all a bad idea actually.....

The thing is that many people are in Bitcoin not exactly because of money, but because we believe that Bitcoin will replace money as we know one day. I mean, yes you can earn and get passive income, but inflation will eat up a huge portion of it, but I guess you know that.

In my opinion and from what I know about the banking system, the banks are flawed, debts from governments will never be paid off, we are entering a global Japanisation and with a few triggers here and there, money as we know, will be history. That's where Bitcoin will be interesting. Let's take a look at Venezuela or Zimbabwe, yes they use the Dollar too, but Bitcoin as well! Now if the Dollar and other escape currencies start getting worthless, they will use Bitcoin and so are we.

Sure, people win a lot by trading with Altcoins, shorting and longing Bitcoin, but at the end, Bitcoin will protect us from huge losses, once the whole banking system collapses. Sure you can have Gold and Silver as well, but how will you transport them? Electricity and Internet will get omnipresent and at one point it will be as normal as streets or the global post system.
And again, if I for instance would lose all my BTC, I would still be healthy, have food on the table and whatnot. Taking loans in order to buy Bitcoin or make any type of investment is silly.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 03-06-2020

(03-06-2020, 07:40 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(03-05-2020, 03:28 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: I personally recommend 1% to 10% into bitcoin as a starting point.
As an Accredited Investor (do you even know what that is?), 


Don't try to pull rank on me, you fucking pretentious asshole.

With bitcoin you can invest directly, and that is likely going to be one of its powerful attributes.  You do not need to meet wealth requirements or jump through loops in order to get into bitcoin.  Furthermore, a lot of the stuff you were saying in your earlier post is way too complicated for regular people in which they are likely to become confused by the whole process, when there are strategies, with bitcoin that are way more simple, including dollar cost averaging, buying on dips and HODLing through rough times that might last for decent amounts of time (which seem almost inevitable in an asset like bitcoin in which battles are occurring and likely to continue).  

One of the advantages of bitcoin is that regular people can get involved in it for whatever amount that they are comfortable.  $5 a week if they want.  Of course, I recommend a bit more than that, but sometimes regular people might not have access to capital or cash flow to invest beyond just putting aside some extra money here or there.. and maybe if they have no investments at all they would start by investing 100% of their extra money into bitcoin, which might only be something like $5 per week, but maybe some weeks they might come across some extra value $1,000 here or there which they can spread out or invest in lumps..(I usually recommend spreading out any extra cash that comes in), but their cashflow also might vary over time and their accumulated investment into bitcoin might really start to add up over time too as long as they can continue to stock bitcoin away and to not have to dig into their investment for 4-5 years or more (which is also a kind of practice that has to be learned and takes time to even employ simple techniques like cash flow management)... and sometimes it could take 20 to 30 years to build up decent wealth or a decent stash of value that can be reallocated and  merely just managed and attempted to use in prudent and responsible ways.... 

I have been engaging in personal investing tactics including dollar cost averaging and diversifying my investments for nearly 30 years before I got into bitcoin, so i had a decent amount of advantages over new investors when I got into bitcoin in late 2013 by having a decent amount of capital to allocate towards bitcoin and to still have decent wealth in my other investments.  So, surely, personal circumstances are going to vary, and even though my 2013 goal was to get to about 10% of my total investment capital into bitcoin over the coming year (with six month investing increments that I authorized each one and ended up largely complying with my plan through 2014), and I had reached my about 10% allocation goal in about late 2014, yet in the longer term, my investment percentage into BTC ended up with a bit over 13%, partly because the first nearly 10 months of 2015 was also a down or a flat year in bitcoin with BTC prices largely bouncing around in the mid $200 range, so by the time BTC prices had started to go up in late 2015 (first jumped from $250 to $500 and then corrected into the $370 to $440 range, I was a bit over invested into BTC, even in terms of my own goals to allocate 10%.


(03-06-2020, 07:40 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: it is not a productive use of my time to explain basic wealth axioms to Bitcoin fanatics with an almost brainwashed view. 

We do not need to hear complicated investment practices because they are not necessary in bitcoin.  Yeah, they might work for you but they are likely to fuck guys up too.  It takes a long fucking time to learn basics, like managing money and even attempting to apply such basic principles to bitcoin including personal tailoring, so there is no need to overly complicate matters when such overly complication is not necessary.

Think about it... if guys are tailoring their bitcoin investment to their personal situation, they already need to consider their cash flow, their other investments, their view about bitcoin as compared with other investments, their timeline, their risk tolerance and their time and skills to study bitcoin and tweak and manage their allocations.

  You already asserted that your proposed practice trying to earn passive income (when not necessary) works better in flat or downtrending BTC prices, so with both the complication of guys fucking up the specifics of employing complicated tools that gives money to exchanges, and even having to put their bitcoin with third parties (exchanges et al) and also the fact that bitcoin tends to be explosive upwardly, dollar cost averaging, buying on dips and HODLing tend to be quite sound practices in bitcoin without any kind of need to bet on down or flat (when bitcoin tends to go in both directions on a frequently changing basis)...

Sure, if some guys build a decent nest egg and they already establish a decent stash of BTC, then they might be ready, willing and able to take a portion of their stash (maybe 10% or less) and to gamble with using your proposed complicated methodology to try to increase their BTC stash. I believe it is far from necessary to engage in such complicated investment vehicles and also ONLY be able to employ such complicated investment vehicles through a few exchanges, when guys are going to be way the fuck better off directly buying bitcoin and learning how to hold and protect their own value and also stacking their value away and also learning a variety of ways in which they can manage their own keys and privacy and establishing a large amount of a bitcoin reserve fund that with the passage of time and persistence will have decent odds of transitioning into a kind of "fuck you" stash as they build it up and continue to build it up with the passage of time.  

So instead of taking nearly 30 years to build a decently large investment stash, like it did for me, it is quite likely with those normal direct buying methods of DCA, buying dips and HODLing, guys have decent chances of becoming rich much sooner, ...maybe in half the time as it took me.... perhaps?  Perhaps?  nothing is guaranteed and when guys begin to attempt to become rich too quick and risk their principle in complicated ways, they end up NOT achieving the goals that they had and it takes them longer or they are never able to achieve it.  Building and preservation of wealth is not an easy thing to accomplish, and over the years I have seen a whole hell of a lot of guys fuck it away, including guys who are still struggling the fuck in their 50s, 60s and 70s.. because they are never able to pull the "fuck you" lever...  and in the end, it tends to take a decent amount of time and persistence and preservation of value to build wealth, even with fairly aggressive strategies, and I am not opposed to some risk-taking and some aggressiveness, but such aggressiveness and risk taking and even complicated approaches should be built from a decently strong foundation rather than jumping into gambling techniques that might end up causing guys to become more poor rather than assuring passive income before they even have built up their principle, which seems to be inadequate and unnecessary risk-taking strategies for how you are suggesting that guys build their foundation... and even betting on odds that are against them while you are guaranteeing passive income from that nonsense.

And you yourself don't even really seem to understand the power and the asymmetric bet that bitcoin possesses.. which is its upwards explosiveness potential that is likely NOT to go away, and instead you want to bet on down and play around with principle and bet on sideways which seems to hardly happen in bitcoin and in the end your betting on down and sideways might NOT work out too well for you or any other guy that plays with that kind of approach, relative to guys who are attempting to prepare themselves psychological and financially for both up and down.... and preparing for up part is buying on BTC on  dips, DCAing and engaging in prudence by HODLing through bad periods or just continuing to buy.


(03-06-2020, 07:40 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: But since I actually care about the serious Swoopers here who actually want to join the ranks of the legitimately wealthy, I will say this.    

Oh you are concern trolling?  Your post is not about bitcoin?  Maybe you should start another thread about sound investing techniques?  This thread is supposed to be largely about bitcoin.  Haven't you read the OP?  

Of course, there is no problem to learn a variety of investment techniques and attempt to apply them to bitcoin, but this thread is not about "investing techniques", and guys need to be careful with attempting to apply some of the traditional investment techniques and traditional investing tools to bitcoin because bitcoin is a paradigm shifting asset that likely continues to possess a decent amount of non-traditional dynamics including s-curve exponential adoption (which also likely reflects in BTC price moves) and some of the traditional investment tools might not work as well or as much to the benefit of guys as compared with buying BTC directly and specifically attempting to learn about the power of bitcoin and the power of holding their own keys.. rather than engaging in gambling or entrusting too much of value management or storage to third parties (exchanges etc).

(03-06-2020, 07:40 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: Your Bitcoin ride is going to be a roller coaster of emotional highs and lows till one day you'll realize you've wasted precious time and compound interest opportunities and you'll still be what I consider "BROKE."

Yeah, of course there remains a lot of uncertainty with any investment, including BTC, and one of the most assured thing in bitcoin is that it is going to remain volatile into the foreseeable future, probably more than 10 years assuming that maybe it gains in market cap in such a way, like 100x or 1000x more in order to become a lot more difficult for BIG players to engage in manipulation practices and attempts to move prices as much... We have already seen some lessening of BTC volatility with the passage of time, but BTC still remains a quite small asset class, relative to other asset classes, so their are both incentives and abilities for BIGGER players to manipulate it and to continue to attempt to manipulate it, even if relatively BIGGER players might NOT end up being as successful as they would like to be in terms of keeping BTC down or whatever.

Sure, also, there are ways to attempt to take advantage of the likely nearly inevitable ongoing BTC volatility, and betting on downtrend or sideways with this asset class does not seem to be prudent, especially when we are more or less in line with stock to flow and four year fractal and other s-curve adoption price prediction models... maybe betting on down or sideways might be o.k after then next exponential run, but even then, it can be quite difficult to even recognize or to appreciate when the correction is going to happen and how far it will go, when it happens. .... 

Yet in the end, so far in bitcoin's history any guy who has invested in bitcoin and has accumulated bitcoin has been profitable on any of the bitcoin that he has bought more than 4 years earlier... even with the peaks and the troughs throughout bitcoin's history.  Of course, people could have fucked around with trading or with leveraging investment tools and ended up losing decent amounts of their investment too, but DCA, buying on dips and holding have proven to be sound and prudent techniques in bitcoin and likely going to continue to be sound and prudent BTC investing techniques.


(03-06-2020, 07:40 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: Again, 10% of an investment portfolio in Bitcoin MIGHT be feasible when it hits 2000 again.  

You are repeating yourself, and I already responded to this idea.  It is quite Pie in the sky if you are waiting for, expecting or planning for BTC prices to go to $2k-ish.  I am starting to think that odds are pretty damned good that the $6,424 bottom is in, and even though that bottom being in is not guaranteed, it is still quite a ways up from $2k.. god, you might even not be able to get sub-$8k bitcoins anymore.  Guys need to be preparing for both up and down, you dumb fuck, Contrarian Expatriate, but anyhow, we will see if your waiting for $2k prices is going to work out well for you, because betting on down in a bull market has usually not been too good for people, and I have seen a quite a few of them through out the years.  Yeah those betting on down folks did well during 2014 and they also did well during 2018, but they frequently got r3ckt during other periods or at least it was a lot more difficult to make their betting on down approach work, when stacking sats, DCAing, buying on dips and HODLing would have worked better in those other years (referring to 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2019).. which is also likely to be a more prudent approach in 2020, also.. And, hey buy the way, if people continued to follow DCA, buying on dips and hodling BTC in 2014 and 2018, they also would have done quite well in the long term, too.  and there seems to be no reason to get all fucked up with distracting strategies that are more like gambling (greedy attempts to get rich quick) rather than sound approaches to BTC accumulation.


(03-06-2020, 07:40 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: Right now, it is wasted time and opportunity when you could be living high on the hog on monthly passive income.  By the way, my monthly passive income is at the five figures level and growing.  If all I held were Bitcoin, my monthly passive income would be a big, fat ZERO.

Sounds like you are trying to sell something?  DCA works... did I not already provide a link several times?


We can take the last two years or the last three years and see that DCA investing would have been completely profitable in bitcoin, so I don't know what the fuck you are trying to sell some get rich quick bullshit about passive income.  Like I mentioned in my earlier post, if you reach a high enough level of principle in your investment, whether through stacking and accumulating or the price appreciation of the asset, then you can start to withdraw at about 4% per year without likely to be depleting into principle which is both passive income and even a better kind of passive income because you also have wealth to back it up rather than gambling.

Anyhow, here are links for performance of bitcoin as compared with gold and stocks for 2 years of DCA at $200 per week.

https://dcabtc.com?sd=2018-03-06&sda=2_years&f=weekly&d=2_years&ac=20000&c=true

In this one you have invested $21,000 and you are 54% ahead in bitcoin, but only 22.5% ahead in gold or 11.78% ahead in the stock market.

and 3 years of DCA at $200 per week.


https://dcabtc.com?sd=2017-03-06&sda=3_years&f=weekly&d=3_years&ac=20000&c=true

In this one you have invested $31,400 and you are over 118% ahead in bitcoin, but only 24.5% ahead in gold or 17.5% ahead in the stock market.

(03-06-2020, 07:40 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: You clearly need to get yourself some professional investment advice from a family office type advisor before you look back in 20 years and realize that your ill-advised Bitcoin obsession was a complete rip off and you have next to nothing to show for it.  But having to work for the rest of your life is a fitting penalty for sophomoric, narrow-mindedness about investing.  

Again.. all fine and dandy that you want to present various investing techniques, but this thread is more about bitcoin than it is about investing techniques, so it might be better use of your time to either start a thread on investing techniques or go to some other thread.  

Of course, you are purportedly attempting to apply your investment techniques to bitcoin with an overall presumption that bitcoin prices are going to trend down, which tends to NOT be the case with bitcoin, and anyone can zoom out on any chart to see that bitcoin does not tend to trend down over all, even if you might have some lucky shorter periods of trending down.

Of course, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance, but you do not seem to know diddly squat about bitcoin, so you are not really contributing to this thread in a kind of substantive way, especially if you are trying to pimp your investing techniques on an asset that you either do not understand and/or you presume to be trending down (when it really seems to be trending up, including that we are likely currently in a bull market, too - even if such bull market can sometimes feel a bit ambiguous while in it).


(03-06-2020, 07:40 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: If Bitcoin remains your primary investment choice, you're almost guaranteed to remain as bitter and broke as you are today young man.  

You are presuming a lot; however, yes, this thread is intended to be about bitcoin and also there can be investors of various ages and various levels of their investment life, and their personal timeline in terms of how they are planning on investing into bitcoin in terms of when they want to cash out or if they are planning to use bitcoin in a longer term and to cash out slowly can all be individualized factors that should be accounted in terms of how much to invest, how to invest and how to tweak along the way, if needed.


(03-06-2020, 07:40 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: Smarten up if you want to get wealthy and retire young.  Some of us are living proof of that.

Lot's of schemers try to sell bullshit by holding themself out as some kind of success story and to say:  "do what I do and you can be rich, like me" blah blah blah.  You hardly seem to be attempting to share information or brainstorm or attempt to allow for individual variation, but instead trying to sell some kind of complicated system that is NOT going to work for a lot of guys because it is way too complicated, presumes too much downside in an asset that is not likely to be down trending, and does not even seem to seek to understand bitcoin, which is the topic of this thread, by the way... have you read the thread title?  It is not "invest and get rich" or anything like that... you dumb fuck.... we are trying to share information about bitcoin, and sure of course, there is investing and strategies involved with that, too.

Edit:  (I ended up having to edit several parts of the above post... to attempt to make some of my responses flow better)


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 03-06-2020

Here's a nice contemporary assessment of bitcoin and gold as potential safe haven asset in an article from a few days ago and thereafter a tweet that was referenced in the article:





https://www.newsbtc.com/2020/03/02/bitcoin-jumps-alongside-gold-on-fiscal-stimulus-sentiment/

[Image: ESGbj1LWkAEqvm5?format=jpg&name=900x900]


https://twitter.com/javierbitcoin/status/1234438819124011008