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RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 01-30-2020

(01-30-2020, 08:15 PM)Nolimitz Wrote: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFz0n3KwyYw

Cool video from Renegade Investing on the potential bull case for 2020. Last time the guy made a video like this was prior to the run up in 2017.

Thought you guys might enjoy.

Listening to/watching that video right now, Nolimitz...   I am about 5 minutes into it, and it seems good and accurate, so far.... and it seems like I have heard this guy before.. maybe it was the earlier video.. perhaps?


Here's another article about Strike from Zap on, which is a way to use lightning network through your debit card.

https://medium.com/@JimmyMow/announcing-strike-by-zap-4f578c7c8984


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 01-30-2020

(01-30-2020, 08:15 PM)Nolimitz Wrote: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFz0n3KwyYw

Cool video from Renegade Investing on the potential bull case for 2020. Last time the guy made a video like this was prior to the run up in 2017.

Thought you guys might enjoy.

Finished listening/watching - 50 minutes.. and well worth it.  Renegade Investor has a lot of good bitcoin information and current charts in there and synthesizing of various overall market and bitcoin dynamics, including discussion of governmental forces/limitations, too.

Probably we should get what's his name, Contrarian Expatriate, to listen/watch... hahhaahaha but Contrarian Expatriate does not seem inclined to account for actual information.. He would rather just make up conclusory and baseless assertions that revolves around hardly any facts at all, or merely just taking a few select information points that he would wish to be important (even if they are not) to help him to spin nonsensical conclusory remarks.

Anyhow, yes, that video provides decently bullish context.. .,. I think that Renegade Investor titled the video as 9 reasons for an upcoming BIG TIME bullish bitcoin market.... and some of his predictions might even be too modest... a trillion dollar market cap for bitcoin would be less than a $60k price, which is seems to be quite reachable and less than a 6x price appreciation from here... .. we will see, we will see.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 01-31-2020

This article seems to suggest that using pass phrases and keeping trezor devices physically secure are preventative measures for some new hacking attack vectors that have been found by a Kraken hack team for when someone nefarious (and technically sophisticated) gets physical possession of your trezor device, if you use that method for securing some of your bitcoin.


https://www.newsbtc.com/2020/01/31/bitcoin-investors-be-aware-kraken-finds-way-to-hack-into-trezor-hardware-wallets/


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 02-01-2020

I don't use any kinds of options or financial instruments like that, and I suppose it is mainly a tool for institutional players who are using those kinds of tools for hedging for maybe if they are taking margin positions.  

Here's an article about derbit's addition of some daily options to its platform.  

https://www.coindesk.com/deribit-to-launch-daily-btc-options-as-regulated-competition-heats-up


Seems that the addition of daily options is just to make the period shorter.. and most of the options on the market have longer periods, and derbit is already dominant in the bitcoin options market according to the below chart, that I got from the above-linked article.

[Image: skew_btc_options__volumes_prev_day-1-545x287.png]


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 02-01-2020

Here's a nice little article suggesting that we might be coiling up for an upwards break to $12k.. 

You never know.   

Even though I might feel more richie.. if such an upward break were to happen, I would not be surprised, either way.. 

https://cryptosyringe.com/this-eerily-accurate-fractal-suggests-bitcoin-will-soon-explode-to-12000/7629/


Here's a tweet and a highlighted graph that seems to argue similar points in regards to an UPPITY BTC price inclination:

https://twitter.com/galaxyBTC/status/1223236420451684354

Quote:

>>>>Today & May-June '19 similarities are interesting to watch.

By looking at this fractal, we are now in a consolidation before entering the next bull move & break the $10K barrier.

RSI also bounced in the exact same area as it did back then.<<<<


[Image: EPnPCcJW4AA1-ck?format=png&name=small]


I tend to be a bit skeptical of arguments that are made from these kind of charts.... but I still remain prepared for either up or down... so I am not really bothered if they end up come true or NOT, even if I feel better with more up.... The more up, the better.     Cool


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 02-01-2020

Here's our monthly update from Wall observer thread... 

And, yeah, January looking pretty good, and all of 2019.. looking pretty good.. but of course there had been some downs in there too to balance matters out.
 

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg53748785#msg53748785

[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FTc67g4o.p...g14mbDvtyA]


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 02-02-2020

(02-01-2020, 04:55 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote: I don't use any kinds of options or financial instruments like that, and I suppose it is mainly a tool for institutional players who are using those kinds of tools for hedging for maybe if they are taking margin positions.  

Here's an article about derbit's addition of some daily options to its platform.  

https://www.coindesk.com/deribit-to-launch-daily-btc-options-as-regulated-competition-heats-up


Seems that the addition of daily options is just to make the period shorter.. and most of the options on the market have longer periods, and derbit is already dominant in the bitcoin options market according to the below chart, that I got from the above-linked article.

[Image: skew_btc_options__volumes_prev_day-1-545x287.png]



Maybe a futures graph can be considered similar information to information about options?

They are means of financialization, even though used for differing purposes, too..and I suppose futures might give some general ideas about what seems to be trending price direction (predictions, perhaps?)


Check out the comparative BTC futures graph (with apparently 14 exchanges (services) that offer such futures instruments):

https://austeritysucks.com/premiumcatcher


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 02-02-2020

Here's an interesting article that came out about a week ago.

https://unchained-capital.com/blog/bitcoin-obsoletes-all-other-money/


Lot's of interesting arguments and interesting graphs... including this one that shows average holdings of BTC per person is around .2 BTC today, and surely going down in the coming years, which seems to imply a greater price, too.. .(well the whole article implies an ongoing higher BTC price)


[Image: Average-bitcoin-holding-1.png]
Surely, the geographical distribution of bitcoin nodes is largely in major cities in Europe, in the USA, and Asia too.

[Image: bitcoin-node-map.png]


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Contrarian Expatriate - 02-02-2020

The best, most well-reasoned opinion on Bitcoin I have seen:




Best to listen to a guy like this instead of our sometimes unglued friend who seeks to hype up the BTC price so he can eventually cash out in positive territory.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 02-02-2020

(02-02-2020, 07:47 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: The best, most well-reasoned opinion on Bitcoin I have seen:




Best to listen to a guy like this instead of our sometimes unglued friend who seeks to hype up the BTC price so he can eventually cash out in positive territory.

Yes.... Listen to him.  At least the video is ONLY 7 minutes, and he might persuade some dumb fucks to NOT think for themselves and not look into the bitcoin matter... not to figure out their finances and not to consider how to allocate their finances in terms of various personal considerations... .. Is the guy selling a product about passive income? Does he have another thread that he wants to point us to in order that we can figure out what to invest in and how to allocate our investment considering risk versus reward potential?

In essence, the guy is saying NOT to buy bitcoin. The guy is about as baseless in his providing of actual information and logic connections in relation to bitcoin as you, Contrarian Expatriate. He gives several conclusory assertions that seem to show that he does not really understand the investment thesis of bitcoin or the idea of the paradigm shifting aspects of bitcoin or sound money. Yes, he mentions some buzz words, like decentralization but only to suggest that decentralization is inefficient, which that is true... decentralization is a lot less efficient, in some ways because you do not have a third party, like he said... that is if you are actually holding your own keys.. which does require some additional responsibilities, including remembering your passwords and things like that.. if you loose them, you are fucked..

For example, he asserts several inaccurate aspects of that bitcoin is like a currency, but NOT like a currency.. so you would not want to invest in a currency... then he says that it is like gold, but it is not like gold, therefore, you would not want to buy bitcoin.

He might be right when he says that the size of bitcoin's market cap is only about the size of 1/3 of a percent of the size of stocks, and so the logical conclusion from that that your investment into bitcoin, if any, should be about that small.... or probably a more fair conclusion from the rest that he says, would be not to buy bitcoin.

What else do you need to know about bitcoin than the nonsense of that guy?  Well, you are not going to learn too much about bitcoin if you rely on the kinds of superficial conclusory information that guys like that provide, and there have been quite a few of those kinds of superficial "don't buy bitcoin" discussions in the past 6+ years that I have been in bitcoin and they have largely been wrong, especially about the price and especially about the fact that bitcoin has not died yet.. even though they keep saying that it is going to die, it is not going to go up in price, but if it does go up in price it is just a fluke... blah blah blah.. just think about it? Non informed people like that advising about a topic that they seem to keep getting wrong.. but they still want to act like they know something. Go figure?


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 02-04-2020

Here's an article that announces a US marshall's auction of 4,040.54069820 bitcoins - divided into 26 lots that is taking pace on the 18th... The lots are more detailledly specified in the below chart.

Will be interesting to see how that auction goes.  Likely will not have any affect on BTC prices, just an interesting happening.

https://www.coindesk.com/us-marshals-will-auction-40m-in-bitcoin-this-month


[Image: US-Marshals-Feb-18-Auction-545x293.png]


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 02-04-2020

Bitcoin halvening is coming any time between May 7th and May 11th.... according to the estimates of the below chart.

https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1224359650260176896

[Image: EP3MnPEUYAAZiq1?format=png&name=small]


Also, let me throw in this little not very long 20-minute YouTube video of Saifedean Ammous that came out today- in which he talks about his book, The Bitcoin Standard, sound money, why he left academia, the carnivore diet and a couple other things.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75v6zaZjhGY&feature=youtu.be






RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 02-05-2020

Here's another chart... maybe similar to others, but hey.. nothing wrong with a little overlappening.

https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1224717525172117504

[Image: EP8SGO4UUAEuZS-?format=png&name=small]


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 02-05-2020

Here's a tweet of a graph that was included in a presentation about historical benefits of adding between .5% and 3% BTC to your portfolio between 2012 and 2019.

Of course, historical performance is no guarantee of future results, but if you have an 8-year investment timeline, it would seem prudent to have some BTC in there (of course, I am sticking with my recommendation of 1% to 10% - even though guys surely can come to their own conclusions based on their own circumstances about investment levels they believe to be reasonable, feasible and prudent).

https://twitter.com/gaborgurbacs/status/1224708731650412547

[Image: EP8KGT5X4AITeRi?format=jpg&name=small]


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 02-06-2020

Here's a nice article to help with feelings of FOMO...  .. racing to own a full bitcoin.. good luck, boyz.... especially no coiners, fence-sitters, bitcoin naysayers, altcoin distracted and precoiners.

https://medium.com/in-bitcoin-we-trust/the-race-to-own-1-full-bitcoin-has-begun-4c32dabefed0


Other articles by the same author, Sylvain Saurel here:

https://medium.com/in-bitcoin-we-trust


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Nolimitz - 02-06-2020

https://unchained-capital.com/blog/bitcoin-cannot-be-banned/

https://unchained-capital.com/blog/bitcoin-obsoletes-all-other-money/

A couple of decent articles from the blog Unchained Capital.

I notice some cynicism on the thread. Welcoming arguments for why bitcoin could fail is necessary....there are risks with every investment. Some of those risks with bitcoin include:

-Network failure (highly doubtful as hash rate grows)
-Government bans (see article above)
-Quantum Computing obsoletes BTC (although BTC is a protocol and many other protocols will have to adjust to quantum....BTC could as well)
-Dumping by whales (not so much a risk to BTC's viability, but volatility risk)

Bitcoin is here to stay. I truly believe that anyone who takes the time to jump down the BTC rabbit hole will understand this fact.

Even as a store of value...BTC trumps gold in many ways.

-More scare
-More divisible
-Easily transported

We live in a digital age. It only makes sense that a digital money will be adopted.

"But I can send US dollars on the internet"

You can....but notice the demonetization trend going on over the past year. If a central authority (PayPal, youtube, amazon) doesn't agree with your content....they can cut off your source of income.

With bitcoin that can't happen. Censorship resistant.

Market cap for Gold is around 8 Trillion....BTC isn't even $1 trillion yet. The market cap for broad money is around $90 trillion.

It's easy to write off bitcoin as a pie in the sky Ponzi....but if one digs a little deeper it's clear that this is a truly revolutionary technology.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 02-06-2020

Securing $10 million in funding for lightning labs, does not seem to be a lot, but I am sure that it helps for development.


https://cointelegraph.com/news/lightning-labs-secures-10m-in-investments-releasesbeta-of-its-first-paid-product


https://medium.com/@lightning_labs/entering-the-decade-of-lightning-8c4a4d31167f


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 02-06-2020

Here's an interesting observation by PlanB regarding the 200 day weekly average , and asserting that it has never gone down, in bitcoin... which seems to be true... 

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1225094482867236870

Quote:
>>>>#bitcoin[Image: Bitcoin_2020.png]
[url=https://twitter.com/hashtag/bitcoin?src=hashtag_click][/url] 200 week moving average has never gone down, currently increasing at $200 (4%) per month<<<<<<<

[Image: EQBo7jOWkAA1Hqq?format=png&name=small]


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 02-06-2020

(02-06-2020, 03:08 AM)Nolimitz Wrote: https://unchained-capital.com/blog/bitcoin-cannot-be-banned/

https://unchained-capital.com/blog/bitcoin-obsoletes-all-other-money/

A couple of decent articles from the blog Unchained Capital.

Those are both great articles, Nolimitz, which kind of demonstrates that there is so much great information out there and analysis ....  Surely the information is out there for guys willing to do a little looking, then a little thinking about his own situation in order to consider the extent to which bitcoin can reasonably be incorporated into his investment approach.


(02-06-2020, 03:08 AM)Nolimitz Wrote: I notice some cynicism on the thread. Welcoming arguments for why bitcoin could fail is necessary....there are risks with every investment. Some of those risks with bitcoin include:

-Network failure (highly doubtful as hash rate grows)
-Government bans (see article above)
-Quantum Computing obsoletes BTC (although BTC is a protocol and many other protocols will have to adjust to quantum....BTC could as well)
-Dumping by whales (not so much a risk to BTC's viability, but volatility risk)

Surely, there is a need to attempt to understand the various risks, which also needs to be balanced with needs to understand the upside potential, too.  I doubt that you even listed all of the risks, and surely part of the reason why bitcoin might not be an 18 year old guy's first investment is because he might want to establish the size of his investment capital a little bit before going straight into bitcoin..  I remember when I first left home, it took me about a year to kind of get an emergency fund together... but I started investing right away, a portion of my then income into US gov bonds because they were safe and easy.  These days US bonds seem like a pretty dumb choice, and that seems to be a product of an ongoing policy gravitation that continues to lower interest rates to such a degree that seems to discourage that kind of investing.... So yeah times have changed, and the kinds of investment choices have changed, and even the ongoing irresponsible monetary policy of the US government (as well as other governments printing/producing money as if it were grown on trees) does seem to cause bitcoin to almost become a "safe" investment... but whatever, it is still understandable that some guys might be hesitant to start out with bitcoin and want to find something that they feel is more likely to hold its value as a starting investment,  and surely, I am not referring to investing in other cryptos when I suggest to build capital into an investment portfolio, before starting to weave in risk...   So, yeah, there would be decent risk in starting out with BTC, but there are also some counter-forces and ways of considering the whole monetary policy matters that could suggest that bitcoin is not as risky as many of the cautious investment theses might suggest to assign to such asset class, and each guy has to start somewhere, and has to decide where and how to start and how to make sure that he is not having to dig into his investments at some inopportune time because he overdid his investment and does not even adequately have his living expenses covered, including emergencies (that are going to happen from time to time), so once a guy gets his cashflow figured out, then he can figure out how much of a budget that he has to invest and how much to put into bitcoin.


(02-06-2020, 03:08 AM)Nolimitz Wrote: Bitcoin is here to stay. I truly believe that anyone who takes the time to jump down the BTC rabbit hole will understand this fact.

Even as a store of value...BTC trumps gold in many ways.

-More scare
-More divisible
-Easily transported

We live in a digital age. It only makes sense that a digital money will be adopted.

Yep.. there seems to be enough information to establish that bitcoin might not be as risky an investment as is made out to be... and compared to gold, bitcoin definitely has a lot of advantages, and even the fact that bitcoin has been designed to be a kind of gold 2.0 has been showing that there might be some disadvantages in having gold both in terms of its physicality but also in terms of it having other use cases that are NOT more focused on monetary aspects, like bitcoin is, yet only time is going to really be able to show us how it all develops...and how one asset class ends up performing and ends up being used (and adopted) relative to other asset classes.


(02-06-2020, 03:08 AM)Nolimitz Wrote: "But I can send US dollars on the internet"

You can....but notice the demonetization trend going on over the past year. If a central authority (PayPal, youtube, amazon) doesn't agree with your content....they can cut off your source of income.

With bitcoin that can't happen. Censorship resistant.

Surely payment system is only one of the use cases of bitcoin, and surely if you keep your bitcoin on coinbase or some other exchange, and then attempt to use bitcoin as a payment mechanism from there, then you might be treating bitcoin almost the same as if it were dollars in a bank.  So, yeah, with bitcoin there remains these uncensorable or difficult to censor aspects that come more into play when guys use those features.. or at least are prepared to use those features - which would not likely be the case if a third party is holding your coins and it if comes time to send the coins, you are somehow prevented or delayed from sending by that third party.

So, yeah, it can be a bit cumbersome to hold the keys to your own coins, and you gotta be careful NOT to lose your coins and to figure out strategies to make sure that you do not end up losing your coins, but with great power comes great responsibility (to steal a quote from spiderman)

There is really nothing wrong with continuing to use the various dollar sending and spending systems to the extent that any guys have access to such systems, but such guys can also have some back up systems in place too.  I really suggest that guys should be using both systems.  If a guy is attempting to get by with only bitcoin systems, he might be o.k. if he does not need to use legacy systems, but completely going off the radar might be a bit premature and even unnecessary if a guy has access to those legacy dollar systems that are working for him.  

Even if a guy has a lot of access to legacy systems, it may also be a good thing to both have and to attempt to use and even to build parallel systems in bitcoin.. and each guy has to decide how much to get involved in ongoing bitcoin transactions, even while part of bitcoin's value proposition does seem to involve giving greater power and flexibility to people who might not have access to dollar legacy systems, and even the existence and the seemingly inevitable strengthening (through usage, development and increasing value going into the system) of bitcoin with the passage of time is likely going to keep legacy systems in check, and maybe even cause some of the legacy systems to be more responsive and responsible in terms of their ongoing efforts and attempts to disenfranchise folks by either not letting them join the legacy system, to limit their access or to cut them off.

We have rights to have these kinds of financial options, and even government and financial officials recognize these kinds of people matters that make it much more difficult to paint the whole bitcoin system as if it were not an advancing, evolving and likely inevitably available tool for regular people.



(02-06-2020, 03:08 AM)Nolimitz Wrote: Market cap for Gold is around 8 Trillion....BTC isn't even $1 trillion yet. The market cap for broad money is around $90 trillion.

Yep.. still early days.. showing a lot of room for adoption.. and bitcoin is currently only in the less than $200 billion range.. of course there are other cryptos that could be considered to add to that, but who gives too many shits about other cryptos.. we are focusing on bitcoin, here.. and anyhow, bitcoin has about 40x just to catch up with gold and another 10x after that to come close to the size of broader money.... and, yeah, maybe it is a bit impractical to consider bitcoin coming to the value of broader money, but it would not be impractical for bitcoin to become 2x the size of gold, but bitcoin does not even need to do all of that in order to be successful.

If bitcoin merely grows on average of 10% per year, it is likely going to be outperforming a whole hell of a lot of regular investments, even while it has potential to continue to grow much beyond that 10% per year.. and part of the rationale of considering bitcoin as an asymmetric bet.


(02-06-2020, 03:08 AM)Nolimitz Wrote: It's easy to write off bitcoin as a pie in the sky Ponzi....but if one digs a little deeper it's clear that this is a truly revolutionary technology.

Information is there for any guy to see... and that seems to be why a 1% to 10% allocation into bitcoin remains decently prudent.  By the way, I would not get too much caught up in the "technology" concept because it can end up dragging guys down the shitcoin rabbit hole.. The technology aspect of bitcoin is surely curious, but the whole systematic network is an even better way of considering bitcoin in terms of the solving of the double spend problem, but thereafter putting a no one in charge system in place that continues to build on itself through network effects that cause incentives for even greedy people to end up building the bitcoin system and making it stronger.  Of course, we can look at bitcoin's hashing power and consider that such hashing power could go away, but it continues to build beyond expectations and continues to support the security of the coins and the transactions through world-wide competition that also likely includes some governments and financial institutions wanting to get in on the game (even if they are merely covertly engaged in such support of the bitcoin system.. because they figure out that fighting bitcoin has not been effective, even while they might continue to try to fight it, going along with it, seems to be a better approach to king daddy.. Wink ).


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 02-06-2020

Supposedly bitcoin's market is bullish, currently.

I don't really know.. but I see that the price has been going up, since about mid-December without too much meaningful correction(s).

https://www.newsbtc.com/2020/02/06/bitcoin-explodes-as-rare-bull-signal-flashes-for-the-first-time-in-10-months/

[Image: bitcoin-price-06022020-1-860x374.png]