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RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 01-28-2020

(01-28-2020, 03:20 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(01-25-2020, 03:30 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: [[edited out]
Becoming unglued over a simple discussion is not what healthy people do.  I do hope you get well soon.

You are showing your own ongoing level of patheticness if the most that you have concluded from my whole attempt to discuss any of these bitcoin related matters with you can be summarized as my "becoming unglued."

You have largely failed and/or refused to back up any of your purported nonsensical trolling points.... and you have been getting caught up or distracted with my personality rather than even attempting to understand that actual topic of the thread in which you posted.

The most fair conclusion is likely that you don't know shit about bitcoin, beyond some stupid-ass vague talking points that hardly even account for regulatory arbitrage that already has been taking place in bitcoin, and you are trying to spout out about bitcoin's supposedly dying status, even while bitcoin itself is struggling with all year high prices.

Last year bitcoin prices were up around 90% for the year, starting 2019 at about $3,800 and ending around $7,180), and just this calendar year, BTC prices are up about 25% ($2,000 from $7,180 to $9,080, as I type).

Difficulties to proclaim that bitcoin is dying, and instead of whining vague white knighting concerns about how guys are getting fucked by bitcoin or that I am misleading them.. yeah right... Rolleyes Rolleyes

You probably be better off if you were to attempt to learn a bit about the subject matter instead of getting distracted by personalities and seemingly butt hurt in the matter - and sure, you are likely only damaging yourself and losing out opportunities by discounting the importance of it, and failing/refusing to learn or even to take a small stake into bitcoin... You are only hurting yourself, but you have your free will to decide for yourself, and I could give less than two shits if you invest in bitcoin or not or even if you take some kind of investment strategy that differs from my own. You are the one who needs to live with and accept your own decisions - and hopefully not letting the personality (or your own stubborness in learning) of some persons on the interwebs to interfere with solid and personally tailorized investment strategies.

Come back a few years from now, and you will likely are not going to be able to get into bitcoin for nearly close to these kinds of prices (yeah nothing is guaranteed, and yeah, you might currently believe bitcoin is overly priced, but many people were spouting out the same nonsense in 2014-2016, when they could not even recognize that they had one of the best investments of their lifetime staring right in front of them... similar to right now.. nothing to say that bitcoin is still not a decently good investment). There continues to be a decent amount of information out there that should justify you or any other STW guy to consider bitcoin investment strategies and to take some stake(s) into bitcoin for their own financial good (which likely helps psychology, too)..and if they remain uncertain about the whole matter, to start out with a slow strategy and to study the topic while they are slowly building their stake in it over a 4-10 year timeframe.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Contrarian Expatriate - 01-28-2020

(01-28-2020, 05:03 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote: Last year bitcoin prices were up around 90% for the year, starting 2019 at about $3,800 and ending around $7,180), and just this calendar year, BTC prices are up about 25% ($2,000 from $7,180 to $9,080, as I type).  
Are you kidding?  Young man, picking and choosing years while ignoring the down years is downright deceptive.  Bitcoin was down in 2018 around 75%.  So if you bought in 2018, you are still well in the red even though it was up 90% in 2019.

Since mathematics don't seem to be your strong suit, when a Bitcoin investment goes down 75%, it needs a subsequent gain of 300% just to break even!  

Let me help you out:

100 - 75% = 25.   25 + 300% = 100

Study the below chart in case the math was too confusing for you:
[Image: percent-loss-gain-table.png?resize=507%2C356]
If you can't understand that, you have no business investing in ANYTHING, let alone coming on a forum to encourage others to lose money as you have been doing.

That same Bitcoin investment in an S&P 500 index fund would have had you up around 25% during the same period.

But to add insult to injury, I both bought and sold Bitcoin in 2019 at a handsome profit.  I just prefer to invest in things that pay me each month while I wait for the appreciation.  Bitcoin does not pay any dividends so it leads a lot of owners to do what you do which is obsessively pouring over graphs and charts hoping to eventually make their lost money back.

Buying Bitcoin is not a investment.  It is value speculation, nothing more.  While you are sitting around with your fingers crossed hoping to get lucky, actual investors are receiving dividend each month from investments that actually reliably go up over time.

But it's your money, so you are free to keep losing it and losing out on the power of years of compound growth. 

By the way, I sincerely do hope you get well soon.....


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 01-28-2020

(01-28-2020, 06:42 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(01-28-2020, 05:03 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote: Last year bitcoin prices were up around 90% for the year, starting 2019 at about $3,800 and ending around $7,180), and just this calendar year, BTC prices are up about 25% ($2,000 from $7,180 to $9,080, as I type).  
Are you kidding?  Young man, picking and choosing years while ignoring the down years is downright deceptive.  Bitcoin was down in 2018 around 75%.  So if you bought in 2018, you are still well in the red even though it was up 90% in 2019.

You are engaging in your own wishful thinking. If you zoom out a bit, you can understand the context a bit better, and any of us should be able to read charts to understand where the BTC price has been and how it has compared, as an investment, relative to other possible investments.

In other words, get the fuck out of here, if you want to select the top of the market, and to suggest that some hypothetical guy would be dumb enough to buy at the top of the market in late 2017 and then fail and refuse to act ever since.

In some of my earlier posts, I had even shown some dollar cost averaging posts that would show how a longer term BTC investment would have performed relative to other investments.

Here's a sample for investing for the past two years at $100 per week, currently showing 32.72% in profits.


Here's another example for the past three years at $100 per week showing 107.85% in profits.

Are these inaccurate?

How about this one that shows the last 7 years, from when I got involved, that shows 2,369.08% profits? Is that one inaccurate, too?



So no, I am not kidding, and I have not been suggesting either a short term BTC strategy or for guys to attempt to time the market... even though I understand that guys are going to do it, and they are responsible for their own choices even if bitcoin does continue to be a great long term investment... whether guys put between 1% and 10% or chooses some other allocation...and yeah, if they over allocate, then they are putting themselves at a higher risk position.

(01-28-2020, 06:42 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: Since mathematics don't seem to be your strong suit, when a Bitcoin investment goes down 75%, it needs a subsequent gain of 300% just to break even!  

Let me help you out:

100 - 75% = 25.   25 + 300% = 100

No one here needs your help with math, so instead of attempting to get distracted, why don't you attempt to focus ur lil selfie a bit more by zooming out and attempting to understand bitcoin dynamics a bit better, including responding to content that I have already posted in this thread rather than engaging in largely irrelevant made-up patronizing attempts, aka strawman attacks.... Do you understand what is a strawman attack? In essence, you just make up your own data and then attempt to show why you are right...

(01-28-2020, 06:42 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: Study the below chart in case the math was too confusing for you:
[Image: percent-loss-gain-table.png?resize=507%2C356]
If you can't understand that, you have no business investing in ANYTHING, let alone coming on a forum to encourage others to lose money as you have been doing.

Yes.. and you have rights to just make shit up? You are providing very helpful data here. Do happen to understand bitcoin, or you just want to get caught up in pie in the sky mathematic concepts that have not even been applied to actual on the ground representative facts.

(01-28-2020, 06:42 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: That same Bitcoin investment in an S&P 500 index fund would have had you up around 25% during the same period.

I don't think so. I have already been investing in S&P index funds for around 30 years, so I understand how index fund performance compares with bitcoin, including my own investment and including those earlier DCA sample charts that I linked above that shows comparative measures for 2 years, 3 years and 7 years (compares bitcoin to S&P and to gold). Bitcoin out performs on each of those assets in each of those timelines. So, quite difficult to determine from what pie in the sky location(s) you are getting your information.. perhaps in your fantasyland thinking re-rendition of the world?


(01-28-2020, 06:42 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: But to add insult to injury, I both bought and sold Bitcoin in 2019 at a handsome profit. 

Well, at least you cannot plead ignorance when you likely will get left behind in the coming years, if you choose to continue as a no coiner into the future.

(01-28-2020, 06:42 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: I just prefer to invest in things that pay me each month while I wait for the appreciation. 

Good for you. Maybe you should make a thread about how smart you are, and link it here? I will subscribe to your thread, to the extent that you are able to show any information that might be interesting.

(01-28-2020, 06:42 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: Bitcoin does not pay any dividends so it leads a lot of owners to do what you do which is obsessively pouring over graphs and charts hoping to eventually make their lost money back.

Bitcoin does not need to provide interest or to get scammed by bullshit lures of interest. I have already mentioned that there were a lot of these in the crypto space in which people got fucked out of their money. Bitcoin already has a design of scarcity and proof of work mining incentives that is likely going to cause enough ongoing price appreciation that it is not going to need to rely upon ploys like the ones you are suggesting to be better. No guarantees, of course, but the design of bitcoin is quite amazing, if you were to attempt to understand it, beyond superficial nonsense that you believe that does not seem to be connected with the real world.


(01-28-2020, 06:42 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: Buying Bitcoin is not a investment. 

Has worked out pretty good as an investment for quite a few people, so your denial of it as an investment seems to defy actual practice.


(01-28-2020, 06:42 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: It is value speculation, nothing more. 

Sure there is a speculative angle to bitcoin, and there are seven network effects that have been building during bitcoin's more than 11 years of existence. Maybe you might want to attempt to understand that bitcoin is a bit more than your conclusory blurbs about it?


(01-28-2020, 06:42 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: While you are sitting around with your fingers crossed hoping to get lucky, actual investors are receiving dividend each month from investments that actually reliably go up over time.

Yes... make a thread in order that you can tell us about this supposed superior investment and maybe some guys will want to allocate some of their portfolio value in that direction, perhaps? Perhaps?

(01-28-2020, 06:42 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: But it's your money, so you are free to keep losing it and losing out on the power of years of compound growth. 

Huh? You don't seem to have any clue about my particular investment or my strategy, and I doubt that you have provided much information that is helpful for guys, here.. at least, I am still waiting to see if you are able to actually contribute any valuable information in regards to actual investment strategies or whatever vague approach you are trying to promote.

(01-28-2020, 06:42 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: By the way, I sincerely do hope you get well soon.....

I did not know that I had any issues that would be relevant to this thread in terms of unwellness. Again, just seems that you are distracted and making shit up.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 01-29-2020

Here's an article that is discussing some recent proof of concept messaging features on bitcoin's lightning network.

https://www.bitcoinlightning.com/whatsat-send-private-messages-via-the-lightning-network/


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 01-29-2020

Here's a tweet suggesting that BTC prices have officially broken out of the downward channel.

https://twitter.com/MatiGreenspan/status/1222312079761133568


Whether such prediction is likely to be true or not is for you to decide.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 01-29-2020

Here's an article with lovely graphs that attempts to describe the number of "entities" that own bitcoin... whatever "entities" means.


https://medium.com/glassnode-insights/how-many-entities-hold-bitcoin-e945ecc5d0a1


[Image: 1*yrpSTEXnsOzncZzPrM0mSQ.png]


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 01-29-2020

Here's a nice little religious-like vision of bitcoin regarding when the "golden bull began his run"... 


Maybe will inspire some guys... like the true believers,  yet at minimum it should at least serve as a bit of taunting aimed in the direction of the bitcoin haters... no need to name any of them here...... because they are largely irrelevant in the whole scheme of things except perhaps keeping BTC prices down a bit lower in order that true believers can continue to accumulate BTC at lower prices... thanks haters...  Wink ... hahahahahahaha    Tongue Tongue

https://youtu.be/nJeddv1QbeQ


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 01-29-2020

Here's a nice little animated and fun website to monitor as we get closer to the halvening... I was kind of watching it the last time around in mid-2016... 

all kinds of funzies in bitcoin landia.. 

https://www.thehalvening.com/#1

[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FUX9KPBR.g...VKZi85AhIg]


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Contrarian Expatriate - 01-30-2020

Bitcoin is essentially 50% speculative gambling and 50% desperate hope.  Bitcoin fanatics frantically try to pump up interest in Bitcoin so as to encourage others to drive the price higher so they can capitalize on the higher price.

That is essentially what is going on in this thread.  Any deviation from Bitcoin fanatical groupthink is met with visceral emotion to squash the dissent.   

Yes, one can make money on Bitcoin but that has a lot mostly to do with timing and luck, than sound investing principles.  I myself made decent money on Bitcoin in 2019, but when I cashed out, I vowed never to return unless there is blood in the water with a price around $1500 per coin.

If you want to make money, put your money to work in a monthly-paying real estate syndication.  You can also dabble in things that pay you dividends monthly (certain stocks, certain ETFs, equity crowdfunding, etc.)  Those of us who have already made 7 figures can tell you that sound investing strategies are likely to pay you in spades while Bitcoin will leave you obsessed and waiting for price movement.

True, some people have made it to prosperity speculating in Bitcoin, but the proportion of successes to failures is woefully low.
Now that you understand the dynamic fueling the Bitcoin cheerleaders, be smart and put your money to work so that it pays YOU each month and makes you very wealthy more quickly than almost anything else.

Bitcoin is best for those who get adrenaline rushes from its upward movement and who rationalize the downward movements.  They will end up 80 years old, broke, and hoping to catch a monumental price rebound to recover all the losses they have taken over the years.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - churros - 01-30-2020

(01-30-2020, 03:14 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: ...

These strokes are broad. Bitcoin or some crypto equivalent is bound to pump a few times again before we're 80. And the risk is justifiable for those who are investing smaller amounts. Safer investing simply isn't worth it below a certain base level.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 01-30-2020

(01-30-2020, 03:14 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: Bitcoin is essentially 50% speculative gambling and 50% desperate hope. 

What precision. From where did you get those seemingly accurate approximations?

(01-30-2020, 03:14 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: Bitcoin fanatics frantically try to pump up interest in Bitcoin so as to encourage others to drive the price higher so they can capitalize on the higher price.

Sounds like you are a bit butt hurt. Why? Is there a need for your butt-hurtedness?

By the way, no one is trying to drive up anything. It just happens.. it is a kind of free market phenomenon that relates to a paradigm shifting asset class, but you would not understand that. I suppose. Unless you are just trolling.

(01-30-2020, 03:14 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: That is essentially what is going on in this thread. 

Apparently, you are a denier and a naysayer. You cannot seem to understand that there are attempts to share information here.. but apparently, you cannot accept that. Bitcoin could give less than two shits about desires to wish it away. It is going to do what is it is going to do, in terms of providing a variety of use cases, whether we are talking about controlling value, sending and receiving value, appreciation of value and or a variety of other use cases that you seem to either not understand or not willing to understand.. but you still want to come here and share your less than informed ideas that don't really amount to much of anything.. except for denying and naysaying... contrary to what appears to be actual facts and actual happenings in the space.

You don't engage with any of the actual facts including information that has been provided in this thread or even attempting to address the price prediction models that have also been mentioned, instead you just deny, deny and deny and wish that the whole bitcoin dynamic will go away or implode upon itself, but your wishes are quite improbable to be carried out, no matter how much you whine about it.. and because you are seeming to be so stubborn, even when presented with early adopter possibilities, the best case scenario seems to be that you will be chasing the train, like these guys... in the event that you ever figure out that you are getting left behind by your stubbornness.

[Image: source.gif]


(01-30-2020, 03:14 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: Any deviation from Bitcoin fanatical groupthink is met with visceral emotion to squash the dissent.   

Yeah right. Try to pump yourself up as some kind of hero. You are not even close to a hero.

You have hardly even deviated, but instead provide trite and non-substantive assertions, and you have hardly backed up anything that you said and you fail to even attempt to address matters discussed in this thread to show that you even understand what the fuck bitcoin is. So how could you be a hero or even a deviator in those kinds of circumstances. You are merely acting as a troll, denier and naysayer without any substance.

(01-30-2020, 03:14 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: Yes, one can make money on Bitcoin but that has a lot mostly to do with timing and luck, than sound investing principles. 

Huh? You can see into the future too? Guys have already made money on bitcoin with sound investing principles, and the main idea is just to have at least a 4-year investment timeline.... Of course, longer would likely be better, but you could have bought at anytime in bitcoin's history, and if you go 4 years later you would be profitable. Furthermore, I showed you the dollar cost averaging tool, but you don't want to talk about actual facts, you would just like to make made-up bullshit statements that are not backed by anything except for your willfully unenlightened proclamation.. That helps a lot, right?

(01-30-2020, 03:14 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: I myself made decent money on Bitcoin in 2019, but when I cashed out, I vowed never to return unless there is blood in the water with a price around $1500 per coin.

Well, if you are good for your word, we will not be seeing you around anymore.

These next couple of weeks might be your last chance to buy at 4 digits... just saying... but whatever, do what you like. Bitcoin does not need your weak-ass hands, anyhow. Tongue Tongue

But for some reason you want to spam this thread with your nonsense.. I suppose that you are merely attempting to talk the price down, but instead it is just coming off as butthurt because the price is moving against you, poor lil tingilie. Blush

(01-30-2020, 03:14 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: If you want to make money, put your money to work in a monthly-paying real estate syndication.  You can also dabble in things that pay you dividends monthly (certain stocks, certain ETFs, equity crowdfunding, etc.)  Those of us who have already made 7 figures can tell you that sound investing strategies are likely to pay you in spades while Bitcoin will leave you obsessed and waiting for price movement.

Like I said.. make a thread on your dumbass product... it is not relevant, in this thread... but nothing wrong with you providing a link so that guys will be able to gravitate in your direction... if they are that dumb.


(01-30-2020, 03:14 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: True, some people have made it to prosperity speculating in Bitcoin, but the proportion of successes to failures is woefully low.

There you go.. making shit up again.

(01-30-2020, 03:14 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: Now that you understand the dynamic fueling the Bitcoin cheerleaders, be smart and put your money to work so that it pays YOU each month and makes you very wealthy more quickly than almost anything else.

Sounds like a sure way to lose money to follow your irrelevant discussion.. so now, get the fuck out of here with that.. because no one cares.

[Image: tenor.gif]


(01-30-2020, 03:14 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: Bitcoin is best for those who get adrenaline rushes from its upward movement and who rationalize the downward movements.  They will end up 80 years old, broke, and hoping to catch a monumental price rebound to recover all the losses they have taken over the years.

Does not seem to be working out like that. NOT even close....

Now, bugger off with your nonsense... including your shilling of some vague ass product that you have failed and refused to provide information about.. . in another thread... bye bye.. diptwat.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Contrarian Expatriate - 01-30-2020

(01-30-2020, 03:26 AM)churros Wrote:
(01-30-2020, 03:14 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: ...

These strokes are broad. Bitcoin or some crypto equivalent is bound to pump a few times again before we're 80.

I don't deny that, but the precipitous drops are what Bitcoin investors need to be worried about.  I explained why (with a graphic) a few posts above.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - churros - 01-30-2020

(01-30-2020, 06:38 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(01-30-2020, 03:26 AM)churros Wrote:
(01-30-2020, 03:14 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: ...

These strokes are broad. Bitcoin or some crypto equivalent is bound to pump a few times again before we're 80.

I don't deny that, but the precipitous drops are what Bitcoin investors need to be worried about.  I explained why (with a graphic) a few posts above.

The stat you pose 300% gains to over x% losses I understand. But it's not as unlikely as the stat makes it sound given crypto's past volatility. You're looking at crypto from a normal stocks perspective, which it just isn't – as you yourself argue.

I don't disagree on gambling but I know the risks.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Contrarian Expatriate - 01-30-2020

(01-30-2020, 04:17 PM)churros Wrote:
(01-30-2020, 06:38 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(01-30-2020, 03:26 AM)churros Wrote:
(01-30-2020, 03:14 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: ...

These strokes are broad. Bitcoin or some crypto equivalent is bound to pump a few times again before we're 80.

I don't deny that, but the precipitous drops are what Bitcoin investors need to be worried about.  I explained why (with a graphic) a few posts above.

The stat you pose 300% gains to over x% losses I understand. But it's not as unlikely as the stat makes it sound given crypto's past volatility. You're looking at crypto from a normal stocks perspective, which it just isn't – as you yourself argue.

I don't disagree on gambling but I know the risks.
So long as guys understand that it IS akin to gambling, I have no issue with it.  In fact, if you catch the aftermath of a precipitous drop, by all means buy some Bitcoin!

What I have an issue with is the moronic notion that one should be primarily in Bitcoin and in it for protracted, long, wild rides hoping that it will be way up when you want to cash out.  That just will not end well for most Bitcoin speculators.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 01-30-2020

(01-30-2020, 06:38 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(01-30-2020, 03:26 AM)churros Wrote:
(01-30-2020, 03:14 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: ...

These strokes are broad. Bitcoin or some crypto equivalent is bound to pump a few times again before we're 80.

I don't deny that, but the precipitous drops are what Bitcoin investors need to be worried about.  I explained why (with a graphic) a few posts above.

If you invest like a gambler (or a drunken sailor), then of course you are going to need to worry about downward price movements, especially if BTC prices had just gone up by a whole hell of a lot.

So in the end, BTC's prices are precipitously going to go down because they had already been precipitously going up.  So, maybe you should be a bit more specific with whatever purported precipitous down that you are referring to when you are getting all excited in making your representations about bitcoin price dynamics, otherwise you are talking pure nonsense because it does not matter how much math you use if you are not even attempting to deal with realistic factual scenarios that are based on prudent strategies that guys might try to take in accordance with bitcoin.   

Sure, I would not be proclaiming that bitcoin is easy as an asset class, and if you had read or attempted to understand any of the posts of this thread, you should have recognized those kinds of ideas being presented in a variety of places in this thread.  I also recall some prior posts in which there had been measurements regarding how many days that a guy would need to be "in" his bitcoin investment in order to be profitable, and part of the message of those posts was that if a guy was out of bitcoin on just a small number of the high rising BTC price days, his whole BTC returns were largely fucked.  Part of the point could be understood that HODLers are going to do way the fuck better in their overall BTC price performance rather than guys who are trying to figure out when to get in and out of the market, because we are NOT really going to be able to determine exactly when we need to get back in, so that we do not fuck up our overall BTC price performance.

Yeah, there are some dumb fuck guys that try to play bitcoin like a gambler, and I certainly am not advocating that kind of an approach to bitcoin, and I frequently talk against that kind of an approach, while realizing as well that some guys (maybe even a lot of guys) are just prone towards gambling.. so in that sense, I frequently attempt to present more prudent ways of investing into bitcoin, including long term approaches rather than attempting to play the short-term which concededly can go all over the place..  I am NOT really trying to denigrate the tendency of guys to gamble (and it is not just guys either) because I think that there is some human inclination towards gambling, but I still believe that it is a practice that needs to be tempered in a lot of ways.. and don't be fucking around with your principle too much... because it can be quite more difficult to get back your principle after you lost it rather than preserving it... and even if you have a relatively small bank of capital, it still is not a prudent practice to be betting it all, even if it is a small amount.  It tends to take a long ass time to get rich, even if you have great and asymmetric assets with ongoing great potential such as bitcoin.

To the extent that you might have even been attempting to present a genuinely potential problem in one of your earlier posts, let's take your earlier pie in the sky hypothetical that guys might have invested at the top of the 2017 price rise, which was up to $19,666 in December 2017, and then BTC prices corrected all the way back down to $3,124 by the time we got to December 2018 (yeah, I know that there are some other possible examples too, but this is likely the most dramatic, and you have not really pointed out any more specifically than this one).

You presented this whole situation as if guys would buy at the top and just wait.  I am not saying that would not happen at all, but that approach would be so rare and so fucking dumb that you can hardly have any sympathy for that kind of guy.  

As you may recognize (maybe not you specifically, Contrarian Expatriate, because you seem to have a tendency to just make shit up to spin nonsense) , between December 2015 and December 2017, BTC prices had risen about 78x from $250 to that $19,666, and a lot of that exponential period came within the last 2-3 months from $4k to $19,666.  So any investor should have been able to see the recent exponential price rise by looking at the charts.  Accordingly, any investor would have been dumb as fuck to go all in, except for the gambling strategy that BTC prices would continue to go up, and sure that gambling strategy did work for some guys in that period, but sometimes difficult to get in and to get out again too, especially when prices are rising so much and even the drop back down to $10k had a lot of hopium that BTC prices would be able to stay above $10k.. but yeah, it dropped within about 6weeks from $19,666 to just above $6k and then toyed around with getting back above $10k between February and May 2018.. but was largely in a trajectory down... that got caught in the $6k arena for a decent amount of time in late 2018 which caused a lot of investors to believe that $6k was the bottom, which ended up not being the case in November 2018, we got a sudden drop to sub-$4k and stayed there for several months.

Part of my point remains that there are prudent ways to invest into BTC, which includes taking a long term approach and a long term strategy and to even tweak along the way.  Dollar cost averaging is one of those approaches, and I provided a web source in my earlier post that shows how your investment into BTC would have done in the last 2 years, 3 years, and 7 years.

Below is a snipit of my earlier post, in case you missed it (yeah, right...  Rolleyes  Rolleyes ):

(01-28-2020, 07:41 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: In some of my earlier posts, I had even shown some dollar cost averaging posts that would show how a longer term BTC investment would have performed relative to other investments.

Here's a sample for investing for the past two years at $100 per week, currently showing 32.72% in profits.


Here's another example for the past three years at $100 per week showing 107.85% in profits.

Are these inaccurate?

How about this one that shows the last 7 years, from when I got involved, that shows 2,369.08% profits?  Is that one inaccurate, too?

So no, I am not kidding, and I have not been suggesting either a short term BTC strategy or for guys to attempt to time the market... even though I understand that guys are going to do it, and they are responsible for their own choices even if bitcoin does continue to be a great long term investment... whether guys put between 1% and 10% or chooses some other allocation...and yeah, if they over allocate, then they are putting themselves at a higher risk position.

So, of course, you can use BTC as an investment, but if your style of investing is to fuck around with short term, then you are likely to get screwed because in the short term BTC prices will frequently move in unexpected directions and frequently move in unexpected directions for longer and farther than what seems reasonable.  

So, Contrarian Expatriate, why don't you give some specific example(s) of some kind(s) of precipitous BTC drop that would NOT have been remedied or largely addressed with a longer term and prudent approach, and by the way, I could give less than two shits, if you are playing bitcoin like a roulette wheel or some other gambling kind of strategy and then complaining about it.. Those kind of tactics seem to devolve into mostly irrelevancies in terms of this thread topic or even trying to actually understand bitcoin as an underlying asset, which is what largely has been the aims of the material, relevant and substantive discussions (presentations) in this thread.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Contrarian Expatriate - 01-30-2020

(01-30-2020, 04:57 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(01-30-2020, 06:38 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(01-30-2020, 03:26 AM)churros Wrote:
(01-30-2020, 03:14 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: ...

These strokes are broad. Bitcoin or some crypto equivalent is bound to pump a few times again before we're 80.

I don't deny that, but the precipitous drops are what Bitcoin investors need to be worried about.  I explained why (with a graphic) a few posts above.

If you invest like a gambler (or a drunken sailor), then of course you are going to need to worry about downward price movements, especially if BTC prices had just gone up by a whole hell of a lot.

So in the end, BTC's prices are precipitously going to go down because they had already been precipitously going up.  So, maybe you should be a bit more specific with whatever purported precipitous down that you are referring to when you are getting all excited in making your representations about bitcoin price dynamics, otherwise you are talking pure nonsense because it does not matter how much math you use if you are not even attempting to deal with realistic factual scenarios that are based on prudent strategies that guys might try to take in accordance with bitcoin.   

Sure, I would not be proclaiming that bitcoin is easy as an asset class, and if you had read or attempted to understand any of the posts of this thread, you should have recognized those kinds of ideas being presented in a variety of places in this thread.  I also recall some prior posts in which there had been measurements regarding how many days that a guy would need to be "in" his bitcoin investment in order to be profitable, and part of the message of those posts was that if a guy was out of bitcoin on just a small number of the high rising BTC price days, his whole BTC returns were largely fucked.  Part of the point could be understood that HODLers are going to do way the fuck better in their overall BTC price performance rather than guys who are trying to figure out when to get in and out of the market, because we are NOT really going to be able to determine exactly when we need to get back in, so that we do not fuck up our overall BTC price performance.

Yeah, there are some dumb fuck guys that try to play bitcoin like a gambler, and I certainly am not advocating that kind of an approach to bitcoin, and I frequently talk against that kind of an approach, while realizing as well that some guys (maybe even a lot of guys) are just prone towards gambling.. so in that sense, I frequently attempt to present more prudent ways of investing into bitcoin, including long term approaches rather than attempting to play the short-term which concededly can go all over the place..  I am NOT really trying to denigrate the tendency of guys to gamble (and it is not just guys either) because I think that there is some human inclination towards gambling, but I still believe that it is a practice that needs to be tempered in a lot of ways.. and don't be fucking around with your principle too much... because it can be quite more difficult to get back your principle after you lost it rather than preserving it... and even if you have a relatively small bank of capital, it still is not a prudent practice to be betting it all, even if it is a small amount.  It tends to take a long ass time to get rich, even if you have great and asymmetric assets with ongoing great potential such as bitcoin.

To the extent that you might have even been attempting to present a genuinely potential problem in one of your earlier posts, let's take your earlier pie in the sky hypothetical that guys might have invested at the top of the 2017 price rise, which was up to $19,666 in December 2017, and then BTC prices corrected all the way back down to $3,124 by the time we got to December 2018 (yeah, I know that there are some other possible examples too, but this is likely the most dramatic, and you have not really pointed out any more specifically than this one).

You presented this whole situation as if guys would buy at the top and just wait.  I am not saying that would not happen at all, but that approach would be so rare and so fucking dumb that you can hardly have any sympathy for that kind of guy.  

As you may recognize (maybe not you specifically, Contrarian Expatriate, because you seem to have a tendency to just make shit up to spin nonsense) , between December 2015 and December 2017, BTC prices had risen about 78x from $250 to that $19,666, and a lot of that exponential period came within the last 2-3 months from $4k to $19,666.  So any investor should have been able to see the recent exponential price rise by looking at the charts.  Accordingly, any investor would have been dumb as fuck to go all in, except for the gambling strategy that BTC prices would continue to go up, and sure that gambling strategy did work for some guys in that period, but sometimes difficult to get in and to get out again too, especially when prices are rising so much and even the drop back down to $10k had a lot of hopium that BTC prices would be able to stay above $10k.. but yeah, it dropped within about 6weeks from $19,666 to just above $6k and then toyed around with getting back above $10k between February and May 2018.. but was largely in a trajectory down... that got caught in the $6k arena for a decent amount of time in late 2018 which caused a lot of investors to believe that $6k was the bottom, which ended up not being the case in November 2018, we got a sudden drop to sub-$4k and stayed there for several months.

Part of my point remains that there are prudent ways to invest into BTC, which includes taking a long term approach and a long term strategy and to even tweak along the way.  Dollar cost averaging is one of those approaches, and I provided a web source in my earlier post that shows how your investment into BTC would have done in the last 2 years, 3 years, and 7 years.

Below is a snipit of my earlier post, in case you missed it (yeah, right...  Rolleyes  Rolleyes ):

(01-28-2020, 07:41 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: In some of my earlier posts, I had even shown some dollar cost averaging posts that would show how a longer term BTC investment would have performed relative to other investments.

Here's a sample for investing for the past two years at $100 per week, currently showing 32.72% in profits.


Here's another example for the past three years at $100 per week showing 107.85% in profits.

Are these inaccurate?

How about this one that shows the last 7 years, from when I got involved, that shows 2,369.08% profits?  Is that one inaccurate, too?

So no, I am not kidding, and I have not been suggesting either a short term BTC strategy or for guys to attempt to time the market... even though I understand that guys are going to do it, and they are responsible for their own choices even if bitcoin does continue to be a great long term investment... whether guys put between 1% and 10% or chooses some other allocation...and yeah, if they over allocate, then they are putting themselves at a higher risk position.

So, of course, you can use BTC as an investment, but if your style of investing is to fuck around with short term, then you are likely to get screwed because in the short term BTC prices will frequently move in unexpected directions and frequently move in unexpected directions for longer and farther than what seems reasonable.  

So, Contrarian Expatriate, why don't you give some specific example(s) of some kind(s) of precipitous BTC drop that would NOT have been remedied or largely addressed with a longer term and prudent approach, and by the way, I could give less than two shits, if you are playing bitcoin like a roulette wheel or some other gambling kind of strategy and then complaining about it.. Those kind of tactics seem to devolve into mostly irrelevancies in terms of this thread topic or even trying to actually understand bitcoin as an underlying asset, which is what largely has been the aims of the material, relevant and substantive discussions (presentations) in this thread.
Young man, you are far too emotional about Bitcoin to have a meaningful dialogue about it.  Some of the other posters on the thread are more objective and reasonable about it.  That being the case, I'd prefer to reserve the in-depth discussion with them.  

Your views on Bitcoin are on the record, and we get that you are all-in, for better or for worse.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 01-30-2020

(01-30-2020, 04:36 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(01-30-2020, 04:17 PM)churros Wrote:
(01-30-2020, 06:38 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(01-30-2020, 03:26 AM)churros Wrote:
(01-30-2020, 03:14 AM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote: ...

These strokes are broad. Bitcoin or some crypto equivalent is bound to pump a few times again before we're 80.

I don't deny that, but the precipitous drops are what Bitcoin investors need to be worried about.  I explained why (with a graphic) a few posts above.

The stat you pose 300% gains to over x% losses I understand. But it's not as unlikely as the stat makes it sound given crypto's past volatility. You're looking at crypto from a normal stocks perspective, which it just isn't – as you yourself argue.

I don't disagree on gambling but I know the risks.
So long as guys understand that it IS akin to gambling, I have no issue with it.  In fact, if you catch the aftermath of a precipitous drop, by all means buy some Bitcoin!

What I have an issue with is the moronic notion that one should be primarily in Bitcoin and in it for protracted, long, wild rides hoping that it will be way up when you want to cash out.  That just will not end well for most Bitcoin speculators.


Bitcoin is only akin to gambling if you approach bitcoin like that, so get the fuck out of here with trying to assert that bitcoin has some kind of intrinsic properties that are more gambling.

I will concede, if you were to make the point, that based on bitcoin's newness, and also that it is a paradigm shifting asset class, therefore there is a decent amount of risk that comes from being a new and a paradigm shifting asset class... disruptive too....   But the mere fact of risk does not mean that you cannot employ Bitcoin in investing ways, and a lot of financial folks are learning this as well as more and more tools coming available to the BIG investment firms.  

Don't get me wrong.  I am not asserting that Bitcoin needs to have a variety of financial tools in order to be considered an investment, but the more financial tools that are available, the more options that individuals and institutions have to get in and to get out of bitcoin, even while, relatively speaking, bitcoin should be considered as relatively immature in terms of its recognition as an investable asset class.

Sure, I have repeated the concept of how much to allocate to bitcoin a large number of times.  Of course, if a guys  is fresh out of high school and barely has an income, then his investible amount would likely be relatively smaller, and he may not really be able to diversify very much until he has a bit more capital built up, but generally speaking, I have frequently asserted that guys who might have more mature investment portfolios would consider between 1% and 10% allocated to bitcoin, and guys ultimately have to consider the matter for themselves and various factors that would move them higher or lower on the range or even to fall outside of the recommended consideration of a starting range.  

One of the main things is that guys get their own house in order and to figure out how much they have to invest on a periodic investment and surely that includes ongoing consideration of at least the following individual circumstances too:  cash flow, other investments and size of overall investment capital, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, risk tolerance, timeline, and skills and available time to research and/or manage portfolio.  Seems to me that it might not be easy to get all of these matters straight before even beginning to invest, and they are not stagnant considerations either so frequently along the way the strategy needs to be tweaked, but if a guy has a fairly solid strategy the tweaking might not be too frequent or too intense.

(01-30-2020, 05:09 PM)Contrarian Expatriate Wrote:
(01-30-2020, 04:57 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: [edited out]
Young man, you are far too emotional about Bitcoin to have a meaningful dialogue about it.  Some of the other posters on the thread are more objective and reasonable about it.  That being the case, I'd prefer to reserve the in-depth discussion with them.  

Your views on Bitcoin are on the record, and we get that you are all-in, for better or for worse.

Yeah right. Rolleyes You are free to PM other members to your lil heart's content if you want to have some privacy in your lack of presentation of anything substantive, meaningful or interactive and your ongoing demonstration of lack of knowledge on this particular topic.. while refusing or being unwilling to actually engage with actual substantive contributions.

In other words, your ongoing trite and conclusory assertions remain quite far from adding any value, at least so far.... I have been trying to give you some benefit of the doubt on the topic, but so far, you have not really been making it easy to give you much if any benefit of the doubt, since you continue to refuse to actually interact with actual meaningful and material matters in relation to actual points made about bitcoin specifically.

So you learned about bitcoin in 2019? Have you looked at any bitcoin charts or attempted to understand bitcoin beyond price performance in 2019 and 2020? I wonder why BTC's price keeps going up this year, even while you are typing your nonsense about its likely imminent death? Up to its all year high of $9,483.32 in the last 10 minutes while I type this message.

Yeah, if you keep predicting BTC prices to go down, you are bound to be correct, sooner or later. Troll shills like you, who have little to actually no actual contribution, love to come out during these kinds of periods, and maybe you will have to start chasing the train soon... remember the earlier pic? Too bad that you sold too much too early... right? What was your selling price? $7,500-ish? You might not even be able to buy back those coins at below the price that you sold them.. .. poor lil tinglie. Sucks to be you. Sad


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 01-30-2020

Here's a nice article with a few graphs, and one of them "eye popping" - demonstrated below.  hahahahaha

https://www.newsbtc.com/2020/01/30/bitcoin-screaming-massive-surge-factors-send-price-past-20000/

[Image: EPhIw5zWoAEfnvU?format=jpg&name=small]


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 01-30-2020

Here's a tweet with a nice little jingle video.


https://twitter.com/i/status/1222916411971948545

Quote from the song/jingle:

>>>>"Governments don't understand it. That's just how Satoshi planned it... Satoshi Nakamoto a real life superhero." - The Gift of Satoshi<<<<


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Nolimitz - 01-30-2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFz0n3KwyYw

Cool video from Renegade Investing on the potential bull case for 2020. Last time the guy made a video like this was prior to the run up in 2017.

Thought you guys might enjoy.