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The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Printable Version

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RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 01-13-2020

Here's a nice tweet showing BTC predictions and asserting that they tend to be too low (or at least they had been in the past).

Some messy chart, upon which to ponder... if so inclined.

https://twitter.com/BitcoinEcon/status/1216708857168265216

[Image: EOKePokX4AAxyrC?format=jpg&name=small]


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - SC87 - 01-14-2020

So if it turns out that Craig Wright is the real Satoshi what would that do to BTC price? BSV is mooning right now.

https://www.coindesk.com/judge-reopens-questions-in-ongoing-1-1m-bitcoin-wright-trial


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 01-14-2020

(01-14-2020, 09:37 PM)SC87 Wrote: So if it turns out that Craig Wright is the real Satoshi what would that do to BTC price? BSV is mooning right now.

https://www.coindesk.com/judge-reopens-questions-in-ongoing-1-1m-bitcoin-wright-trial

Seems pretty idiotic to bet or even speculate upon representations of a proven liar, even if he and his casino buddy have means to pump their project and to spread disinformation to such levels as to cause a bunch of other dumb fucks to follow.

You are asking to speculate here about something that is NOT true, but just assume, for the case of the hypothetical that it is true?  

That is part of the reason that the scam coin project that is also known as bcash sv (or BSV) is pumping, currently.

Probably, the more important question should concern what is going to happen once the scam/sham is found out or the momentum changes?  Where do you want to be at that time? 

Where are you at right now, and where do you want to be when the most likely scenario plays out?

Are you buying BSV, SC87?  how about other coins?  how about the coin relevant to this thread, Bitcoin?  Do you plan to sell your bitcoin based on this current information?

If we are talking about bitcoin specifically, there are a lot of scenarios, and like usual there remains a necessity to be prepared for both down and up.  So in that regard, with bitcoin are you prepared for both down and up, or are you merely betting on one possible direction?  or you don't have any bitcoin (or hardly any) but you are just wondering about a crash that you expect to come that might or might not come based on current happenings, including the craig wright baloney?


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 01-15-2020

(01-14-2020, 09:37 PM)SC87 Wrote: So if it turns out that Craig Wright is the real Satoshi what would that do to BTC price? BSV is mooning right now.

https://www.coindesk.com/judge-reopens-questions-in-ongoing-1-1m-bitcoin-wright-trial

Dude.... just no. It's been proven he lied and forged documents. It's a pump and dump exit scam. Please don't post about shitcoins in this thread, stick to the crypto thread.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 01-15-2020

(01-15-2020, 03:57 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(01-14-2020, 09:37 PM)SC87 Wrote: So if it turns out that Craig Wright is the real Satoshi what would that do to BTC price? BSV is mooning right now.

https://www.coindesk.com/judge-reopens-questions-in-ongoing-1-1m-bitcoin-wright-trial

Dude.... just no. It's been proven he lied and forged documents. It's a pump and dump exit scam. Please don't post about shitcoins in this thread, stick to the crypto thread.

It does seem a bit strange how guys can get so caught up into hype around bullshit, in spite of the ongoing attempts that are made in this thread to provide quality information regarding the long term value propositions of king daddy.

Surely, the ability to get distracted into baloney fake stuff or short term pump and dump nonsense is not exclusive to guys on this forum, and the same was true at RVF.  Guys tended to NOT be much different than the mainstream in their getting distracted into nonsense, and the appeal of the get-rich-quick propositions.  One thing that I always thought about RVF guys (which should similarly apply to STW guys) is that they should be more sophisticated in their considerations of the long term value propositions of bitcoin, largely based on the mobility considerations and surely there has been attraction of young guys wanting to travel which should involve some value placed on mobility of value, too.

I am NOT going to assert that I am immuned to get-rich-quick thinking, and surely there is a bit of common sense in considering that any guy should want to place a decent amount of value into investing into the asset that is going to appreciate most in value in the shortest period of time. So, the lure of seeing an asset appreciate quickly historically has been a common ploy in the crypto space that has had a tendency to trick guys out of their bitcoin, and only the rare ones would not end up getting trapped into some kind of other (non-bitcoin) pump and dump asset that ends up dumping more than it pumps (in terms of timing or treating that other (non-bitcoin) as a long term investment when it is not).

Of course, my own common assertion remains considering why any guy would want to add more risk to an already risky asset, such as bitcoin.  Bitcoin is already risky, why add more risk to that when the other crypto space assets are largely correlated to bitcoin anyhow?  Furthermore, bitcoin also has a decently large asymmetric upwards proposition, so why add more risk onto that?  In other words, you can buy and hold bitcoin, and likely do quite well with a very simple strategy, so why play around more?  except maybe with a small portion of your funds - which might be a bit more acceptable as long as you have the vast majority of your crypto allocated value into bitcoin.

Sure, I cannot really know which asset is going to perform better in the short term and whether there might be some decent short term trades, but historically, we had seen that bitcoin might end up pumping simultaneously to some of the other shitcoins, and it may NOT matter too much about the appearance of which pumpening was the leader of the movement, but there could end up coming some BIG ass dump, while still a best practice strategy to stay focused on the A game (referring to staying focused on king daddy rather than getting distracted).   

Currently, the odds are looking pretty decent that $3,124 in December 2018 was the bottom of the longer term cycle and $6,425 in December 2019 may have been the low for the current correction cycle.  Of course, we are still only about a month removed from that December 2019 $6,425 low so that one seems less certain than the December 2018 low.  

It feels good when we experience any kind of BTC pump, so currently we have about a 35% BTC price appreciation from that mid December 2018 low with BTC prices currently bouncing between $8,700 and $8,900.

Of course, we cannot completely ignore the various shitcoins that are out there including the bitcoin forks that have halvenings coming up that are likely going to happen before bitcoin's May 2020 halvening.  The three bitcoin forks that have been pumping in the past week or so have been bcash, bsv and bgold.  I am pretty sure that the halvenings of all of those shitcoins come before bitcoin's anticipated May 2020 halvening, and there is some rationale that pumping of those coins might be better to attempt before their halvenings and that likely mining power will divert off of those coins after their halvenings.  

Bitcoin is a bit the other way in terms of when the "real pump" is expected.  Of course, there are a lot of bullshit theories regarding disincentives to mine bitcoin after the halvening, but historically we have NOT seen those kinds of dynamics play out in bitcoin to any material and significant degree, but we have heard the theories about it.   What tends to happen in bitcoin, and likely going to happen again, is a kind of ongoing manipulation to try to keep the price from exploding upwards, and somewhere down the road, 6 to 18 months after the halvening, it becomes harder and harder to keep the BTC price down in part due to limited supply pressures.  

This time around there could be some front running of the anticipated dynamics, but no matter what, I cannot expect any kind of straight line upwards in bitcoin prices.  Accordingly, in this halvening, also there are a lot more BIGGER players with more powerful shorting tools in bitcoin, but that does not necessarily mean that they are going to be in successful in their attempts to actually keep bitcoin prices from going up in accordance with the stock to flow model, the four year fractal model and other networking effects models.  So, even though we should anticipate BIG battles and BIG FUD spreading attempts and even a lot of drama and intensive volatility, with attempts of BIG players to either deviate from the price models or to cause them to be wrong, the end results are likely still going to play out with BTC playing out as a strong and good long term investment as long as you do not get shaken out of your coins and employ decently prudent BTC accumulation strategies (even if you don't believe in dollar cost averaging - like swordfish).


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 01-15-2020

PS - let's not forget how when we were at 6.5k everyone here was saying we were going down to 3k and I said that it was the bottom. Everyone laughed. What's the price now? Thought so.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 01-15-2020

(01-15-2020, 06:44 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: PS - let's not forget how when we were at 6.5k everyone here was saying we were going down to 3k and I said that it was the bottom. Everyone laughed. What's the price now? Thought so.

Fair enough point.

You might recall my ongoing state of asserted uncertainty in the 50/50 range though I may have been giving greater than 50/50 odds to revisiting sub $6.5k...   I am too lazy to go back, and i could give less than two shits about whether I am correct or not, since I largely set my strategy without any kind of meaningful attempt at short term predictions - even while I tend to have my inclinations, including tentatively being inclined to believe that we have largely reverted to being in a bull market since about May 2019, and even while we remain in the midst of a decently long correction within that bull market reversion - after having a few spikes and back and forths and really just a kind of larger consolidation that most likely is going to be inclined towards up... that is the hopening.

Regarding our current status, it would be nice to witness bitcoin take advantage of the considerable shitcoin hypening in the last week or so... whether that involves shitcoins correcting from here or not.  Just seems hard to believe that shitcoins are going to continue to pump, but who knows.  Sometimes the pumping opportunities exist in the locations with the least liquidity but mere pumping and dumping can cost a lot of money if there is not any there there.. hardly any fundamentals, and that is why they are generally referred to as shitcoins.

Interesting times in the short term, and doubtful that a bunch of hype is just going to immediately die down with at least a bit more hype, but again, difficult to know for sure.  Traders love volatility and they like to cause it to happen or to exacerbate it once it starts happening, so currently there seems to be a bit of incentive to continue to dramatize the space, to the extent feasible.  Popcorn, anyone?  NOT a time for sleeping, seems to me.

Edit:   Ps.. by the way, a bunch of diptwats putting their value (including value that should be in BTC) into various shitcoins at this time (or in recent times), including the various BTC forks such as BCH, BSV, BGold or any of the others or into Ethereum might be a prudent time to purge/separate them from their bitcoins.  hahahahahaha.. good luck to dumb fucks investing in those other projects (they are going to need it), currently based on recent seeming pumpenings.  Sure they could pump again, or pump some more, but NO guarantees in these parts, and this is where the BIG boys play in terms of making sure that they don't fuck around too much with their BTC holdings.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 01-15-2020

(01-15-2020, 08:53 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(01-15-2020, 06:44 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: PS - let's not forget how when we were at 6.5k everyone here was saying we were going down to 3k and I said that it was the bottom. Everyone laughed. What's the price now? Thought so.

Fair enough point.

You might recall my ongoing state of asserted uncertainty in the 50/50 range though I may have been giving greater than 50/50 odds to revisiting sub $6.5k...   I am too lazy to go back, and i could give less than two shits about whether I am correct or not, since I largely set my strategy without any kind of meaningful attempt at short term predictions - even while I tend to have my inclinations, including tentatively being inclined to believe that we have largely reverted to being in a bull market since about May 2019, and even while we remain in the midst of a decently long correction within that bull market reversion - after having a few spikes and back and forths and really just a kind of larger consolidation that most likely is going to be inclined towards up... that is the hopening.

Regarding our current status, it would be nice to witness bitcoin take advantage of the considerable shitcoin hypening in the last week or so... whether that involves shitcoins correcting from here or not.  Just seems hard to believe that shitcoins are going to continue to pump, but who knows.  Sometimes the pumping opportunities exist in the locations with the least liquidity but mere pumping and dumping can cost a lot of money if there is not any there there.. hardly any fundamentals, and that is why they are generally referred to as shitcoins.

Interesting times in the short term, and doubtful that a bunch of hype is just going to immediately die down with at least a bit more hype, but again, difficult to know for sure.  Traders love volatility and they like to cause it to happen or to exacerbate it once it starts happening, so currently there seems to be a bit of incentive to continue to dramatize the space, to the extent feasible.  Popcorn, anyone?  NOT a time for sleeping, seems to me.

Edit:   Ps.. by the way, a bunch of diptwats putting their value (including value that should be in BTC) into various shitcoins at this time (or in recent times), including the various BTC forks such as BCH, BSV, BGold or any of the others or into Ethereum might be a prudent time to purge/separate them from their bitcoins.  hahahahahaha.. good luck to dumb fucks investing in those other projects (they are going to need it), currently based on recent seeming pumpenings.  Sure they could pump again, or pump some more, but NO guarantees in these parts, and this is where the BIG boys play in terms of making sure that they don't fuck around too much with their BTC holdings.

Lol you always say it can go up or down bro. 

Everyone wants it cheap but when it is, they get greedy and fearful. It's still cheap. Halving in months away.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 01-15-2020

(01-15-2020, 09:10 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(01-15-2020, 08:53 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: [edited out]

Lol you always say it can go up or down bro. 

Everyone wants it cheap but when it is, they get greedy and fearful. It's still cheap. Halving in months away.

It could go down, up or sideways.... that's my prediction for the short and medium term.  I hope that helps for your BTC accumulation strategizing.  Wink


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 01-15-2020

(01-15-2020, 09:39 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(01-15-2020, 09:10 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(01-15-2020, 08:53 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: [edited out]

Lol you always say it can go up or down bro. 

Everyone wants it cheap but when it is, they get greedy and fearful. It's still cheap. Halving in months away.

It could go down, up or sideways.... that's my prediction for the short and medium term.  I hope that helps for your BTC accumulation strategizing.  Wink

Mine is disregard all TA, and do the opposite of herd.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 01-16-2020

(01-15-2020, 11:06 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(01-15-2020, 09:39 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(01-15-2020, 09:10 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(01-15-2020, 08:53 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: [edited out]

Lol you always say it can go up or down bro. 

Everyone wants it cheap but when it is, they get greedy and fearful. It's still cheap. Halving in months away.

It could go down, up or sideways.... that's my prediction for the short and medium term.  I hope that helps for your BTC accumulation strategizing.  Wink

Mine is disregard all TA, and do the opposite of herd.

I suppose that if such BTC accumulation strategies or working for you, then who would I be to attempt to dissuade you.... Angel



On a related or maybe not so related note, below is a linked 12 minute YouTube clip from That Martini Guy who is discussing some blocking of bcash SV addresses in terms of depositing into exchanges, which suggests manipulation of BSV liquidation.. not allowing such BSV sales.

The earlier part of the linked video talks about bitcoin price dynamics (and maybe even some TA).

I started the video at 8 minutes 55 seconds, which is where his discussion of the BSV liquidation manipulation begins.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48iZBT0gK34&feature=youtu.be&t=535


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 01-16-2020

Nice little announcement article linked below regarding the integration of BTCPay Server into Liquid.  Giving more options to bitcoiners, one step at a time....  Big Grin

https://www.coindesk.com/btcpay-server-now-processing-blockstreams-liquid-assets?amp=1&__twitter_impression=true


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 01-16-2020

Here's an interesting article that just came out today and an interesting chart from Grayscale, and they are proclaiming that 2019 was a very good investment year for them.

From the chart, you will notice that the bitcoin trust far exceeds the value size of the various shitcoin trusts that they also carry.

[Image: EORkzCyXkAAqiKz?format=png&name=4096x4096]


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 01-16-2020

Here's a link to an interesting article that proclaims that exchanges hold about 2.2 million bitcoin... I am not sure if that is true, but it seems to be a reasonably plausible number.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/no-it-wasnt-craig-wright-bitfinex-moves-1b-in-bitcoin-for-48-cents


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 01-16-2020

Here's a link to a recent survey from Bitewise of asset managers, including asking them about their views of crypto...  and also their personal holdings in crypto.. 

My main criticism of the whole survey and approach would be its failure/refusal to distinguish bitcoin from crypto or at least define what the fuck is "crypto"


https://static.bitwiseinvestments.com/Research/Bitwise-Research-ETF-Trends-2020.pdf


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 01-17-2020

Here's a link to a Medium article from today/yesterday that provides some financialization techniques in dealing with bitcoin options, but also has a very inspiring opening statement regarding the likely historical significance of bitcoin.

Here's the opening statement:

>>>>>>Eleven years and more than six hundred thousand blocks ago… Satoshi bestowed upon us a financial revolution unlike anything in the history of humankind. Few realized it at the time, but now, with each passing block, Bitcoin gets stronger, and more and more naysayers become Bitcoiners.

Scholars will look back on this era and fill pages upon pages with their thoughts and analyses, but they will not characterize this time as “The Death of Fiat.” Rather, they will hail it as the “Rise of Bitcoin.”<<<<<<<<


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 01-17-2020

Here's another nice article that discusses the likelihood that BTC prices will continue to go up, so long as support at $8,600 holds.



Essentially the article is saying:
https://twitter.com/Josh_Rager/status/1217908906439184390
Quote:
>>>>>>>>
When price holds during aggressive selling

It's typically a bullish sign for
$BTC<<<<<<


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 01-17-2020

https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/efficient-market-hypothesis-and-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model-db17f40e6107

Plan b with his second article released today bulllllish


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Nolimitz - 01-18-2020

It is easy to see the large change in sentiment over the past week.

That being said I like to try and maintain discipline during these times. Rather than FOMO I simply averaged in....it is easy to lose rational judgement in the emotion of the crowd.

Until bitcoin hits $9500 we are yet to form a higher low. Although $9200-300 being hit could also point to bullish structure.

The point is no one knows. And as Jay has suggested, best to prepare for both directions.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 01-18-2020

Faketoshi was proven in court today to not have the keys to satoshis fortune. Big surprise

We are all satoshi, except Craig Wright