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The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Printable Version

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RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-18-2019

There certainly are claims that bitcoin is skewed towards the younger side, but we have to really question what appears to be sloppy-ass research.  Where the fuck in the world, besides some bad sampling is going to get BTC overall adoption rates anywhere near 9%... Get fucking real.   Here's the apparent website of the organization/team that conducted the likely spin-ladened (what you want to hear) study.

https://twitter.com/BxeCapital/status/1207333268175179776

[Image: EMFPMzEW4AE6Pj4?format=png&name=small]

Here's an article with the same above graph, too... from a month ago.

https://steemleo.com/cryptocurrency/@taskmaster4450/millennials-will-guarantee-cryptocurrency-success


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - SC87 - 12-19-2019

https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1206967461016326144?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1206967461016326144&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fu.today%2Ftrading-legend-peter-brandt-expects-btc-price-to-be-at-5500-after-bitcoin-halvening


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-19-2019

(12-19-2019, 01:06 AM)SC87 Wrote: https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1206967461016326144?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1206967461016326144&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fu.today%2Ftrading-legend-peter-brandt-expects-btc-price-to-be-at-5500-after-bitcoin-halvening

Not more of that goofball.   Rolleyes

We going to take him with a grain of salt or are you holding back regarding how much BTC you buy (or even selling or shorting BTC) based such predictions?

In other words, are you prepared for both down and up?

Do you have a plan that involves setting a target BTC accumulation level and then a maintenance plan, once you have achieved your target BTC accumulation level?

Otherwise, are you just playing around with BTC in a kind of minor way and as a kind of gambling vehicle in which you take your profits in dollars and have little to no longer term strategy(ies)?


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - SC87 - 12-19-2019

I prefer to gamble with shit coins or scam coins, whatever you prefer to call them.

Even if I believed in what he tweeted, Bitcoin will go up and down in price many times before then, as you know BTC could easily pump or dump out of nowhere. Whoever can accurately predict that must be very rich.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-19-2019

(12-19-2019, 01:32 AM)SC87 Wrote: I prefer to gamble with shit coins or scam coins, whatever you prefer to call them.

I prefer to call the vast majority of the cryptocurrencies that are not bitcoin as shitcoins when referring to them generally, but I suppose that sometimes there may be needs for better descriptors, especially if we are attempting to get into specifics regarding what any one of them might be doing at a particular time.

(12-19-2019, 01:32 AM)SC87 Wrote: Even if I believed in what he tweeted, Bitcoin will go up and down in price many times before then, as you know BTC could easily pump or dump out of nowhere. Whoever can accurately predict that must be very rich.

O.k., so you might buy his idea about a general downward trajectory that is needed, even if there is likely going to be oscillation along the way that is NOT easily to predict in advance.

Surely, it remains far from clear regarding whether his price point of $5,500 by mid-2020 is even close to reasonable, even though anything is probable, some trajectories are more probable than others.

I don't make any exact claims, and surely I would not really be REKKT by such an outcome, if it were to occur, because surely I attempt to practice what I preach in terms of attempting to prepare for both directions and even to prepare for extremes in either direction, and maybe in my thinking $5,500 is a bit of a stretch or an extreme rather than being a realistic scenario, but surely lots can happen in the next 6-8 months to potentially cause that outcome to end up happening -even if diptwat Brandt does not really have too many clues except for perhaps plotting out some waves on a piece of paper... and attempting to assign way more certitude to such possible BTC price direction than it seems to deserve.

You still did not answer my question in terms of your decisions to possibly accumulate BTC. How does your believe in the overall picture of the Brandt prediction affect your own personal BTC strategy? Does it cause you to sell a bit? Wait to buy? Short? Buy less than what you would, otherwise?


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - SC87 - 12-19-2019

I don't have a significant amount to invest in BTC or alts at the moment so it doesn't really matter to me either way what he says, most peoples predictions seem to be 50% at best anyway.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-19-2019

Here's an interesting article from a couple of days ago about blockchain audibility and bitcoin is within the "easiest to audit" class.

https://coinmetrics.substack.com/p/coin-metrics-state-of-the-network-37f


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-19-2019

(12-19-2019, 03:37 AM)SC87 Wrote: I don't have a significant amount to invest in BTC or alts at the moment so it doesn't really matter to me either way what he says, most peoples predictions seem to be 50% at best anyway.

Well, even though I doubt that you can assign 50/50 values to any prediction, since some predictions have higher/lower odds than others depending on their timeline and their severity, and of course, the further out that they get, the more difficult it gets to be to assign a high probability to it.

Anyhow, I am going to take your rendition of a hypothetical scenario that bitcoin might (50/50 ) drop to $5,500 by mid-2020.

Let's say that your current expectation of your total budget that you can allocate to BTC is $1,200 and you are otherwise accounting for your various other investments, including your cashflow and other personal factors.

I frequently suggest that guys consider three aspects of their investment that would involve possibly dividing your $1,200 into three (which would be $400 each segment).  1/3 you invest right away.  1/3 you DCA schedule over the next 6 months, which surely does not end up being very much - only $15 per week for the next 26 months, approximately.  The final 1/3 would be set up as buy orders for various levels of BTC drop.  So maybe you would create orders to buy $80 at 5 intervals that go down to $5,500.  If you started those buy orders at $6,500, then your buy orders would be $200 apart and get you down to $5,500.

Of course, none of us has perfect information, so we attempt to do our best to figure out what is going to work best for us in order to attempt to match our individual situation with our investment.  We would not want to allocate more funds than we know that we are going to have available; however, if some extra funds that you want to allocate towards your BTC investment come in within your already established 6 month period (perhaps $600 shows up in February), then you can take those funds and allocate the same way that I had already described by dividing into 3 ($200 each), and of course, you can create some other more acceptable individualized variation of what I had described in order to attempt to better match your sentiments, projections and budget.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-19-2019

I am pretty sure that I had provided a link to 4-year BTC candles previously in this thread, but it does not seem to be problematic to provide an update that had been tweeted out today on ChartsBTC.

https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1207681320547241984

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RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-20-2019

Surely sometimes we have some weird things happening in bitcoin land, and I was of the impression that Circle and some other earlier businesses had really made it easy to send bitcoins to people who did not have them by sending them an email... but apparently Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has been granted a Patent on some kind of bitcoin sending e-mail technology...   Who knows how something like this is going to play out?   Of course, patents can cause a lot of issues in terms of restricting competition and even causing litigation, and with something that is meant to be open source, like bitcoin, patents are going to sometimes seem out of sync with the spirit of bitcoin and how bitcoin has continued to be developed in a largely open source kind of way.

https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-ceo-armstrong-wins-patent-for-tech-allowing-users-to-email-bitcoin


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-20-2019

Here's a nice 28 minute youtube video of a presentation that was given at "The Value of Bitcoin Conference" on December 11, and just published today.  

Largely talking about various modes of statistical analysis in bitcoin in order to attempt to figure out statistical strengths of different BTC price prediction models...., also giving a decent amount of attention to suggesting that the stock to flow model seems quite strong in bitcoin but really does not work with other crypto currencies.

https://youtu.be/R6k5cmdscfg

Also tweeted here, so you can look through some additional comments, if wanted.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - ChicagoFire - 12-20-2019

I bought some more BTC. I've been slacking on putting up articles, just been so busy. I read the few past posts. My next investment dump will be in real estate shares through Fundrise.

I'm reading some articles that say the world and even America will be heading for hard times. I can elaborate over PM if anybody is interested in why (politics isn't allowed here).


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-20-2019

(12-20-2019, 10:20 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: I bought some more BTC. I've been slacking on putting up articles, just been so busy. I read the few past posts. My next investment dump will be in real estate shares through Fundrise.

I'm reading some articles that say the world and even America will be heading for hard times. I can elaborate over PM if anybody is interested in why (politics isn't allowed here).

I think that politics in the contribution of finances or economics ends up being economics related rather than politics related.  So, as long as you are not pushing agendas but instead just attmepting to describe what you believe to be likely directions of economics or finances, then those are the kinds of things that we do when we are attempting to figure out how to invest in something like bitcoin.

I might be more worried if your topic or way of presenting might NOT be so much making any kind of connection with bitcoin rather than if it seems to have some political discussion that happens to be kinds of macro-economics thinking.

By the way, there has been a lot of assertions that the dollar is fucked or going to get fucked for a long time, and the dollar has been relatively strong for the whole existence of bitcoin.

Sometimes people will make proclamations regarding certain politicians, including the president, and who gives any shits about whether you support him or not, but there still can be objective ways of attempting to describe how some of the current events, including impeachment, might or might not affect bitcoin.  Sometimes, I get a bit irritated because bitcoin has some cycles that might not exactly be connected to short term political issues, but I could understand that there could be some claims that short term politics could affect bitcoin on the margins and we might begin to have disagreement about how much of an affect those kinds of things would have in regards to price rather than asserting them as hoping for a certain political outcome.

By the way, in bitcoin, some politics can sometimes come out as BIG block or small block camps, and sometimes I get a bit worked up about the facts that some of these conversations devolve into prescriptions about how one person or camp or another wants bitcoin to develop rather than being descriptive statements about both how bitcoin is developing and the most likely directions that bitcoin could develop (which could affect price too).

Some of that does kind of devolve into some coin politics, too, including some of the arguments between bitcoiners and altcoiner, and questions about how much of a status some of the various shitcoins might have that might be more irritating as conversations when they end up being blanket politics rather than facts, but there are still ways of describing price predictions and financial strategies without getting as much caught up in those areas.

By the way, there are also arguments regarding how much BTC's price performance might be correlated with macro price performances, and surely sometimes bitcoin HODLers seem to be wishing for Armageddon-like scenarios out of the belief that that kind of scenario would be good for bitcoin, but if you argue out the theory a bit, a lot of even those kinds of folks would come around in recognizing those kinds of scenarios might not even be good for bitcoin, no matter how unlikely those kinds of scenarios would be, and maybe those could be some of the only scenarios in which physical PMs would evolve into a more prominent role, but even those kinds of speculations are NOT easily justified and may not even really matter so much when in the end each of us do have to figure out our own circumstances in such a way to understand our own levels of comfort in terms of our investment allocations, including how or if we choose to include bitcoin in those kinds of allocation preparations.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-20-2019

Here's a nice tweet from Trace Mayer, in which he presents a visual regarding the total size of the Assets under management for institutional investment at about $100 trillion.. and to show that bitcoin is only a tiny fraction of a percent of the amount of assets that they have under management... and even the total market cap of bitcoin is much smaller than the assets that institutions have under management.

https://twitter.com/TraceMayer/status/1082504802247102464

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RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-21-2019

Below is a link to another very interesting and informative video from the Value of Bitcoin Conference (40 minutes) from August of this year.

This video presentation is a panel of four (and a moderator) with two traditional financial persons and two bitcoinists, and also Saifedean Ammous jumping into the conversation from the audience.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DY_lb-K1Jrs

Seems to me that the traditional financial persons are a lot more rigid in their arguments and their lack of creative thinking about what is actually going on with what bitcoin brings to the table.  Giacomo Zucco does show that he is the most able to really put bitcoin into a kind of a meaningful and understandable context while even being very accepting and agreeable with the various (seemingly less convincing) analyzing points of the traditional financial analysts.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - New Ice Age - 12-21-2019

(12-20-2019, 10:20 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: I bought some more BTC. I've been slacking on putting up articles, just been so busy. I read the few past posts. My next investment dump will be in real estate shares through Fundrise.

I'm reading some articles that say the world and even America will be heading for hard times. I can elaborate over PM if anybody is interested in why (politics isn't allowed here).

Yeah I would be interested to hear your rationale for why the world might be headed for hard times. I think you can post here though, if it's part of the discussion why BTC could be a good investment. If you think there is reason to believe that other assets (stocks etc.) might be a bad investment and BTC might profit from it, it's absolutely valid to post about it here.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-21-2019

(12-21-2019, 08:08 PM)New Ice Age Wrote:
(12-20-2019, 10:20 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: I bought some more BTC. I've been slacking on putting up articles, just been so busy. I read the few past posts. My next investment dump will be in real estate shares through Fundrise.

I'm reading some articles that say the world and even America will be heading for hard times. I can elaborate over PM if anybody is interested in why (politics isn't allowed here).

Yeah I would be interested to hear your rationale for why the world might be headed for hard times. I think you can post here though, if it's part of the discussion why BTC could be a good investment. If you think there is reason to believe that other assets (stocks etc.) might be a bad investment and BTC might profit from it, it's absolutely valid to post about it here.

I agree.  Just attempt to make a connection with bitcoin if you post here (bullish or bearish about bitcoin does not matter).  

If you want to discuss financial implications without attempting to make a connection about bitcoin, then that might be better in a different thread.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-21-2019

Can be BIG news and maybe even BIG battles and controversy when some countries (Iran and Malaysia and perhaps involving Turkey as a witness to the discussions) start to discuss using "crypto" currencies as a trading vehicle that could better skirt some of the USA controls and impositions that are a part of using the USD as a trading currency.

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/12/20/614144/Malaysian-PM-welcomes-Rouhani's-cryptocurrency-proposal


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-22-2019

Of course, the new trending randsomeware phenomenon provides a bitcoin use case that is not a very comfortable one.

https://laptopcapri.com/how-ransomware-exploded-in-the-age-of-bitcoin/

No one wants criminals/shady individuals to be taking value from others through shady means, even though it seems to be a kind of lucrative business direction for some of the criminal element....


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - ChicagoFire - 12-22-2019

^^ Monero has that privacy feature for private criminal activities. Just checked the price and it's a whopping $46. Go figure. I remembered Samseau going gaga over this coin.

If you all think America is going to get back up on its feet I got bad news for you. The upcoming grand solar minimum will lead to the earth cooling down for the next few decades. There's already crop failures. This will make the Middle East volatile once again. Cue in America to the rescue. America's enemies could come in and strike. Maybe Gen Z will turn things around, maybe they won't. I am keeping this short so I can move to my point:

Crypto benefits from disorder. I think crypto will gain acceptance from the mainstream or even a country adopting it as its currency once America collapses. There's been discussions that Etherum smart contracts can be used for this exact purpose to deal with foreign governments so individuals that are fed up with how our system is run can seek asylum.

With all that being said, I could be wrong about America collapsing (doubt it though). I won't back down on investing in general. Crypto, real estate, gold, etc has its benefits.