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RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-12-2019

(12-12-2019, 05:01 PM)Docardio Wrote:
(12-11-2019, 05:16 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: [edited out]

Oh dude. I don't even want to argue with you.  

Why would you want to argue with me?  Your points are largely lame, anyhow, and I am not really saying anything controversial beyond guys need to make their own choices with a recommendation of investing 1% to 10% of their investable portfolio into BTC. Of course, if they are on the more skeptical or hesitancy side then they would invest lower in that range or even choose to go lower than the range, and if they are a bit more bullish, they would go above the range.

(12-12-2019, 05:01 PM)Docardio Wrote: Just remember me when you get all fucked by dealing with BTC.

The only way that I get fucked is if bitcoin slowly spirals to zero and I believe that it is going to rebound at some point and it just continues to spiral to zero.  That is a risk that I have been willing to take because I invested a relatively small portion of my overall investment portfolio into BTC.  Of course, BTC has way the fuck over appreciated, so that relatively small overall investment has become a much larger portion of my investment portfolio value, but that does not mean that the remaining portion of my investments were not going to sustain me, because I did not invest more than I could afford to lose because I had all my expenses covered even if bitcoin were to go to zero.

Seems a lot more difficult to assert that bitcoin is going to zero, these days as it did during 2015, when the prices were much lower (in the $200s) for almost the whole year.  There are more and more avenues of liquidation and development in BTC and there are also a lot more financialization and adoption, so sure, it is possible that the whole network could stagnate, but that surely seems like the much less likely scenario.

In other words, bitcoin still remains a kind of asymmetric bet to the upside, which means that you could lose 100% if it goes down (so long as you do not margin bet or leverage, which I surely do not recommend), but on the upside there still remains BIG ASS potential that any guy should be considering in terms of his decisions about what investments to make and how to allocate them.  There is also the value transfer and safekeeping aspects of bitcoin, too that are utilitarian in nature.

(12-12-2019, 05:01 PM)Docardio Wrote: You can even write me a PM to hear inevitable "I told you so"

You may need to provide your personal information or an outside way of contacting you, because based on your already demonstration of troll/shill and lack of contribution behaviors, you might not have a STW account by the time that I need to PM you, if such necessity were to happen.  I doubt that I would be contacting you anyhow, even in the best of scenarios that would favor your purported prediction because you have not really said anything of meaning or value, anyhow. So there is that.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-12-2019

Here is a tweet from a conference attendee who is largely asserting that bitcoin is coming more and more and more into mainstream financial discussions, which he evidences with a screenshot of one of the presenters.

https://twitter.com/MarkValek/status/1204854454312415232?s=20

[Image: ELiAvHYW4AARgV1?format=jpg&name=small]


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-13-2019

Here's an interesting article that is talking about some of the side chain developments going on through bitcoin, including de-fi type applications that are done through rootstock, apparently and similar to what ethereum proposes to be offering.

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoiners-are-building-a-sidechain-version-of-ethereums-makerdao


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-13-2019

I am not going to say that I don't like this one:

https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1205149798644346880


[Image: ELmNWpLU8AE85x4?format=png&name=small]


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-13-2019

(12-12-2019, 07:47 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: https://www.500headlinesaboutbitcoin.com

Not sure if you saw this JJ, but thought I'd share. Epic quotes.

That is interesting.  First time that I had seen that link (or that list of bitcoin quotes), and surely 500 quotes is a lot to read through.  NOT saying that I read through them, yet.

And, here is what seems to be the opposite of those positive quotes:  a quote from Mark cuban showing how willfully dumb he seems to be in regards to bitcoin.  Angel

https://twitter.com/ForbesCrypto/status/1204440642845315072?s=19

Quote:

>>>>>>[/url]Forbes Crypto

@ForbesCrypto

[url=https://twitter.com/ForbesCrypto]




"Too difficult to use, too easy to hack, way too easy to lose"—Mark Cuban says there is "no chance" bitcoin becomes a reliable currency: http://on.forbes.com/60111pHyH by
@BenjaminPirus<<<<<<<<<



RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-13-2019

Here's a news letter announcement out of blockstream regarding plans for future expansion of lightning network transactional capacities, but the date of the expansion of lightning network transactional capacities has not been established.

https://decrypt.co/14480/lightning-strikes-new-milestone-for-bitcoin-payments?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sm


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-13-2019

I am not sure whether the below chart from a tweet from today is redundant (in terms of charts that were shown previously), but it does have a different set of lines and colors, so could be worthy of consideration in itself, including looking at any comments within the tweet thread.

https://twitter.com/CryptoWallStre1/status/1205519331129323526

[Image: ELrdcCCVAAAxDcC?format=jpg&name=small]


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-14-2019

Here's a PDF link to an interesting current article from Blockchain Capital.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vc-DGG0iqEBQqNlsr5x6vxGxWUAEdgV3/view

I did not like that it is difficult to figure out the date of the article, and I am thinking that the date should be listed on each page of the article.

I did like that there are a lot of interesting graphs in the article, which represents interesting current dynamics in finances (and bitcoin), and I liked that at the end of the article it gives 12 - 2020 BOLD predictions:

>>>>>>Blockchain Capital’s bold 2020 predictions:

1) A crypto company is acquired for more than $500m
2) Value locked in DeFi hits $5B
3) In the face of competition from China, Libra will receive the green light for a dollar-backed stablecoin
4) A federal judge rules against the SEC in a crypto case
5) Not a single 2020 L1 network launch achieves “top 10” status as defined network value
6) USDC sees 300%+ growth (as measured by transaction value, issuance, market cap and trading volume)
7) Demand for Bitcoin transactions drives fees to exceed $100, catalyzing scaling up the stack
8) FinCEN/FATF hold stablecoins to a stricter standard than paper cash by requiring broad application of the travel rule
9) McAfee loses his bet and eats his…..
10) KYC/AML becomes the primary regulatory battleground for DeFi
11) Privacy coins are de-listed from major exchanges
12) Bitcoin price blows past all-time high<<<<<<<<


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Lampwick - 12-15-2019

Quite a nasty slide recently, and about to get worse.  Huobi US just recently shut down suddenly and unexpectedly.  Binance US, and Binance.com (which is pretending not to service US customers, but actually is) will be soon to follow.  Also coming soon, and possibly related, is a regulatory review from the Finance Stability Board, with their consultative report on stablecoins due April 2020.  It will likely not be kind to these KYC lax outfits that are servicing US customers with pretend US dollars (tethers).

Once Binance is actually cut off for US customers, the majority of altcoins will be officially worthless because they will have no volume.  When this happens, I predict a big pump back into BTC like we saw in May, as holders again exit altcoins.  Only this time, BTC dominance will go to much higher levels.  Then BTC will slowly bleed out again as its only purpose, buying altcoins, will be gone.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-16-2019

(12-15-2019, 01:52 AM)Lampwick Wrote: Quite a nasty slide recently, and about to get worse. 


Welcome to the thread and the forum, Lampwick.

When you are referring to a "nasty slide," I suppose that since you used the word "recently," you are referring to the slide from $10k to $7k over the past two months? Although you remember that we had gone from $7.3k to $10.3k in about 12 hours, so correcting down to $6,500 and then bouncing back to $7k or so in a couple of months does not seem really as bad as you seem to be suggesting that it is.

But, you seem to be making some implication about knowing the future price direction of BTC?

I have my doubts when anyone really proclaims with any kind of certainty to know the future price direction of BTC.

(12-15-2019, 01:52 AM)Lampwick Wrote: Huobi US just recently shut down suddenly and unexpectedly. 

Does king daddy care?


(12-15-2019, 01:52 AM)Lampwick Wrote: Binance US, and Binance.com (which is pretending not to service US customers, but actually is) will be soon to follow. 

Well, King daddy might care, if Binance were to shut down, perhaps? Binance is a pretty large exchange, and they are really only a few years old. They came into the space quite quickly and took a lot of trading liquidity share quite quickly. I am sure bitcoin will adapt to any such changes in the liquidity avenues, and I have my doubts if you really know anything about any kind of purported perils of Binance, at least in terms of their abilities to continue operations in the short term. You might need to explain a bit more about what you mean, here.


(12-15-2019, 01:52 AM)Lampwick Wrote: Also coming soon, and possibly related, is a regulatory review from the Finance Stability Board, with their consultative report on stablecoins due April 2020.  It will likely not be kind to these KYC lax outfits that are servicing US customers with pretend US dollars (tethers).


I did not know that there was such a thing as a world government.

I would suspect that bitcoin's upcoming halvening is going to have a BIGGER effect on the future short-to-medium term price direction of bitcoin than any kind of attempted world wide coordination regarding any bitcoin wannabes... or stable coins or shitcoins or whatever you would like to call them.

(12-15-2019, 01:52 AM)Lampwick Wrote: Once Binance is actually cut off for US customers, the majority of altcoins will be officially worthless because they will have no volume. 

I will believe it when I see it.

(12-15-2019, 01:52 AM)Lampwick Wrote: When this happens, I predict a big pump back into BTC like we saw in May, as holders again exit altcoins. 

Pump in May or sometime thereafter is likely more explainable by normal bitcoin price movements rather than your lame-ass simplified theories concerning what status quo banks and governments might want for bitcoin.
There is already a four your fractal theory and also a stock to flow theory as well as some other cyclical theories that already put upwards price pressures upon bitcoin in the coming year to two, so your prediction that there is likely going to be upwards price pressures is likely true, but for reasons that are quite different from your lame ass seemingly fearmongering explanation attempts.


(12-15-2019, 01:52 AM)Lampwick Wrote: Only this time, BTC dominance will go to much higher levels.  Then BTC will slowly bleed out again as its only purpose, buying altcoins, will be gone.

You could be correct that BTC's dominance is going to flux up and down, but in the end, it does not really matter too much. The various altcoins (aka shitcoins) are likely to continue in the space, and I suspect that some of the stable coins are going to start to get listed more and more in the coinmarketcap numbers and to dilute some of bitcoin's overall dominance relative to the continued adding of new coins and some with purported high market caps. In other words, coinmarket cap is not really a very meaningful measure when you have various crap projects in their that kind of pervert the meaning of it, which causes needs for further analysis of why some of them have such large market caps that might not really reflect their actual value in terms of fundamental contributory potential to the bitcoin space.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-17-2019

There is some concern out there for exchanges listing ethereum, and apparently, UK's longest running exchange is moving completely over to bitcoin, and delisting ethereum, as described in the below-linked Coindesk article from today.


Coinfloor, the U.K.’s longest-running cryptocurrency exchange, plans to delist ethereum next month, citing an unclear future of hard forks and the need for onerous technical support for the second-biggest coin by market capitalization.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - New Ice Age - 12-17-2019

Quick question, does anyone know where's the best place to trade BTC against EUR? 

I know Coinbase of course, but are there any better places?


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-17-2019

(12-17-2019, 07:41 PM)New Ice Age Wrote: Quick question, does anyone know where's the best place to trade BTC against EUR? 

I know Coinbase of course, but are there any better places?

I don't know which is good, but there are several fairly well established exchanges, besides CoinbasePro.


Bitstamp, Bitfinex, Kraken.. There are others, too.  You can look up which exchanges trade BTC / Euro pairs on the Bitcoin Ticker app, and maybe you will see an exchange that is good for you.  Sometimes, you will choose your exchange in terms of being able to connect a bank account, or maybe confidence in not losing your funds or maybe fees.  Of course, Bitfinex is not currently available for USA customers, and you have a little USA flag on your profile.. so there is that, too 

(edit:  Oh, on closer examination with my magnifying glass that appears to be a german flag... O.k. so you might have more options, including bitfinex, perhaps?).


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-17-2019

Here's a new feature on bitcoinity.org that allows you to look at a combined bitcoin order book of various BTC exchanges, and you can sort by fiat currency pairs, or look at all fiat currencies as they are paired up with BTC.

I wished there were a feature on the site to eliminate some of the exchanges, too.... but hey, beggars cannot be choosers, right? 

https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/books/all#


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - New Ice Age - 12-17-2019

Ok great, thanks, will check it out. 
Hope BTC gonna drop some more. Love that price crash. Feel like this will continue for a while.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-17-2019

(12-17-2019, 10:37 PM)New Ice Age Wrote: Ok great, thanks, will check it out. 
Hope BTC gonna drop some more. Love that price crash. Feel like this will continue for a while.


Difficult to know if the BTC price will keep going down.   Sometimes when there is an ongoing trickling down, we anticipate that a reversal is not going to take place until there is a bounce that is based on high volume trades, and NOT even that is an absolute condition that is necessary to determine the bottom of the correction cycle.

Surely, it becomes unclear if the correction cycle should be measured from the December 2017 high of $19,666 or if it should be measured from the more recent high of $13,880 on June 27.  I never really proclaim to know anything about 
BTC price direction, except for knowing that from time there are explosive price movements to the upside, and it is good to be prepared for that. 

Of course, if you are in a BTC accumulation phase, then you want the prices to stay low for long enough for your to feel comfortable with your accumulation level and the price in which you got in.


I never really know how to read the level of the correction of the altcoins, either, and how much the purging of the altcoins might be contributing to pulling BTC's price down.  Frequently, we will get periods like what we seem to be experiencing now, in which the altcoins are correcting greater than bitcoin, but then that still does not tell us exactly when such correction will stop either.  

More theories out there than answers, and of course, if you want to bat around a few bitcoin price theories, then feel free to do that here, and it will not matter so much about whether we agree or not, so long as we try to present some facts and logic or even just our general feelings about where the BTC price is going (of course feelings are a lot less persuasive than facts and logic, but every guy has to start somewhere in terms of coming to their conclusions and speculation about these kinds of matters.. that may include their (his)investment choices).


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - New Ice Age - 12-18-2019

(12-17-2019, 11:40 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: ...

Yeah the thing is with BTC there are many theories based on logic, but it seems like they most of the time don't prove true. When BTC was 3500 many people said 6500 would be strong resistance, I can remember many crypto "gurus" saying that. Of course it just went through it. And after that drop to 7500 in October and the pump back up to 9500 also many "experts" said we will not see sub-7000 anymore. 

Since "technical analysis" doesn't really seem to work very well I started to focus more on sentiment when trying to understand BTC price. Of course that's less measurable and "logical", but I just think BTC price is simply primarily driven by emotion. So in that case it's more about trying to understand how the "general feeling" for BTC is at a given point. And currently I just think there is not enough optimism for BTC's price to go up. There is a strong downwards momentum and I don't really see a reason why it should stop yet. Either it hits 5000 or 4000 that would stop it, or it goes sideways on 6500/7000 for a while, and if it stays stable on that level for a while then it could go up again.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-18-2019

(12-18-2019, 01:09 AM)New Ice Age Wrote: Yeah the thing is with BTC there are many theories based on logic, but it seems like they most of the time don't prove true.

Probably, you can find parts of theories to be true and not true, and each guy is going to need to figure out for himself the extent to which he is going to take action based on his beliefs in one direction or another.

If you are asserting that theories in bitcoin have been more wrong than they have been correct, then you might be looking at the wrong theories.

Of course, any theory can be taken with a grain of salt and the more accurate ones are likely NOT going to get too caught up in specifics.

So, for example, I started to invest in Bitcoin in late 2013 based on an underlying presumption (or maybe hope?) that in the longer term the price would go up. I tailored my investment practice based on my view of the charts and my thoughts about present and future price performance while employing dollar cost averaging.

Of course, there could have been other approaches that might have paid off better than my approach, but overall the theory about orange number go up played out to be more true than untrue. It took a couple of years for my BTC investment portfolio to go from in the red to in the black, but once it went unambiguously in the black in about mid-2016, it stayed in the black.

(12-18-2019, 01:09 AM)New Ice Age Wrote: When BTC was 3500 many people said 6500 would be strong resistance, I can remember many crypto "gurus" saying that. Of course it just went through it.

I am presuming that you are referring to BTC's late 2017 price performance? rather than the price performance of this year?

In 2014/2015/2016, there were a lot of people that got scared out of bitcoin, but there were also a decent amount who kept holding BTC and investing into it. Surely, in 2015/2016 timeframe, I was one of those who was thinking that the top of the 2017 BTC price rise was going to be in the $3k to $5k territory, and that is presuming that BTC would even be able to go up in price or to pattern its previous exponential price periods of earlier times.

I remember telling my mom that BTC prices were likely to peak in the $3k to $5k arena, and even though she bought some BTC at around $400, she largely scoffed at me regarding those "high prices", and I thought that I was being relatively conservative, because I did not want to throw out too crazy of numbers, even though I understood that much higher numbers were within potentialities.

I told her that I would not blame her if she sold some or all of her BTC starting at above $2k, but I would blame her if she were to sell her BTC in the $1k to $2k territory (which was the BTC price high range of the previous exponential area). Anyhow, even though BTC way the fuck over performed expectations, there were a lot of BTC HODLers like me who had a plan to profit from BTC's price going up way more than expectations.

Yeah, you can find examples of people saying all kinds of dumb shit that lock themselves into statements like never or for sure, but if you are overrelying on the many dumb statements, then you are likely looking at the wrong sources. Most of the more credible and accurate sources are way more flexible in their ideas about where bitcoin is likely to go or where it could go, and most bitcoin "gurus" (as you call them) are way more careful than locking themselves in too much regarding BTC price performance specifics, especially short term and especially knowing that bitcoin frequently goes way beyond expectations in either direction.

One of the most guaranteed things about bitcoin remains its short term volatility rather than being able to pinpoint specifics in terms of short term volatility direction - even though the 4-year fractal model, and the stock to flow model and the s-curve exponential adoption models have all shown decent predictive powers if they are considered in terms of a range rather than attempting to lock in too many short-term BTC price performance specifics.



(12-18-2019, 01:09 AM)New Ice Age Wrote: And after that drop to 7500 in October and the pump back up to 9500 also many "experts" said we will not see sub-7000 anymore. 

Like i said, real experts are not going to lock themselves into so many "nevers" and "certainty" statements.

I will say, however, that your focus on a drop to $7,500 needs to be considered in the context of where we are at. Of course, the explosive growth in 2017 is relevant and the correction down to $3k. Furthermore the 3.5x price appreciation from April 1 to June 27 should also be considered, so in some sense the correction down to $7,500 is not unusual, especially since there was a 42% BTC price rise in 12 hours on October 25 from $7,300 to $10,300, and it took about a month to get back down to $7,300. Those kinds of fake outs or whatever they are called can be read in a variety of ways, but they are part of BTC's contextual considerations regarding both manipulation and momentum, as well as fundamentals.


(12-18-2019, 01:09 AM)New Ice Age Wrote: Since "technical analysis" doesn't really seem to work very well I started to focus more on sentiment when trying to understand BTC price. Of course that's less measurable and "logical", but I just think BTC price is simply primarily driven by emotion. So in that case it's more about trying to understand how the "general feeling" for BTC is at a given point. And currently I just think there is not enough optimism for BTC's price to go up.

I am surely not into technical analysis, and accordingly I take technical analysis with a decently large grain of salt, but you seem to be much more likely to get tricked into poor trading practices if you rely upon sentiment. Frequently sentiment is a reverse indicator, so hopefully your methodology is able to figure out sentiment manipulation, too. I have witnessed this sentiment manipulation and even reverse indications based on sentiment on a lot of occasions.

(12-18-2019, 01:09 AM)New Ice Age Wrote: There is a strong downwards momentum and I don't really see a reason why it should stop yet. Either it hits 5000 or 4000 that would stop it, or it goes sideways on 6500/7000 for a while, and if it stays stable on that level for a while then it could go up again.

You could be right, but sometimes the bottom comes with a drastic punishment of those who continue to think down is coming. That is when bitcoin goes into punishment mode. It is kind of a good feeling when a guy is holding BTC, but it is also strange that so many people are saying down, down, and down, but bitcoin goes up in stead.. up and up and up.

I am not saying that I know anything about BTC direction, but strategies of both preparing for both price directions while largely preparing for UP by buying, accumulating and holding have proven to be great strategies in bitcoin, overall. There are surely going to be individual variations, too, and it is possible, also, that the past performance is not going to reflect future performance, so in that respect, each guy has to choose for himself regarding if he is playing around too much with gambling techniques or is employing a strategy that has decent odds of paying off for whatever are his circumstances, which should of course be tailored to himself including his cash flow, his view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, his other investments, his risk tolerance, his timeline and his skills and time that he is able to manage his portfolio and/or research further into the matter in order to be able to make tweaks to his strategies along the way.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-18-2019

ABC/Fox news commentator John Stossel did a little 5 minute clip about bitcoin.


https://twitter.com/JohnStossel/status/1206275802570149889

Even though it seems that Stossel gave too much attention to Gold Bug Peter Schiff, the video does make some decent points in a kind of mainstream way of thinking about hedging your bets.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 12-18-2019

Guess what were the best and worst investment(s) of the decade?

Inquiring minds want to know, right?


https://edition.cnn.com/2019/12/17/investing/best-worst-investments-decade-bitcoin/index.html