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RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-25-2019

(11-25-2019, 05:39 AM)SC87 Wrote: Too late to Tether? $6636 as I write this.

Well, a better practice is to be buying BTC on the way down, so I am not sure why you would be dicking around in other ways.  But hey, you gonna do what you gonna do, and be contemplating selling during a correction if you believe that you can get lucky with such a seemingly fools errand to attempt to time the bottom with any kind of precision in terms of depth or length of time.

Does anyone ever know when and where is the bottom?

Sometimes, the bottom can become fairly clear upon a kind of high volume quick reversal, which would mean a significant bounce back on high volume.  So far we are not really seeming to experience any kind of clear signal like that.

On the other hand it is not always necessary to have a high volume reversal sign, and sometimes, there will be a spurt up, such as the one on October 25, that might cause a decent number of people to tentatively conclude that the bottom is in, but ends up NOT being the case, as we have subsequently been able to gather.

You?  What have you been doing?  Are you considering doing anything, doing anything or waiting for something to happen before you act?


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-25-2019

(11-22-2019, 06:41 AM)SC87 Wrote: JJG it was a joke, everyone knows comments like that get you all riled up.

What is the easiest/best android wallet to use? I need to send someone a small amount and they have no experience with BTC.

Any more humor, SC87?

I think that there are a lot of bears laughing recently, but I am not sure about whether they are going to be getting the last laugh.

It remains quite difficult to say where we are going, exactly, and surely we had bounced more than 10% from the $6,515 local bottom, but under current conditions, I, personally, have some difficulties getting comfortable with a mere 10% cushion from the local bottom, and maybe it relates to my own reluctancy to feel comfortable with the Bottom being in - especially when it is now seeming to be more clear that the October 25th bounce was a kind of fake out, but still I doubt that the October 25th bounce was a matter without significance in terms of Lindy effect** - even while there were 12 hours to go up and 26 days to come back down to the break out point of $7,300 which we are nearly in that same price range as I type.

So, up or down from here? I am not sure.

**By the way, in some of my earlier posts in this thread, I was spouting out about Schelling point, and i was really meaning Lindy effect.  Perhaps my somewhere near "boomer" brain?  Anyhow, both concepts are good to know in bitcoinlandia because they are relevant and applicable to understanding certain phenomena and dynamics, but they are different concepts too that can be easily looked up in Wikipedia.  Accordingly, if any guy here is interesting in discussing the relevancy or meaning of either of those concepts as applied in bitcoinlandia or both of them, then I would be more than game to engage in such speculative discussions of such relevancies.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 11-25-2019

almost at 3k guys, good call


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-25-2019

(11-25-2019, 06:01 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: almost at 3k guys, good call

Bears and doomer and gloomers do like to spout out nonsense whenever there is any negative sign in bitcoinlandia and to attempt to exacerbate some already BTC price momentum that seems to be going in their favor in the short term... furthermore, there remains these kinds of jumping to conclusion perceptions that are spouted out that sometimes seem to purposefully narrow in on short term movements and to project the imminent spiraling down of bitcoin.

Sure, in the end, these kinds of FUD spreading behaviors, even if inadvertent, can keep BTC prices down for longer periods of time, so that various bitcoin believers can continue to scoop up "cheap coins", even if it could take a few years for some of the price matters to play out.  

There are some BTC believers who believe that they are never going to get enough coins, and they don't want to engage in leveraging of any of their assets, and they only have their cash flow to buy BTC.  Maybe they can only buy a few hundred dollars a month, so periods like this can really help some of the normies to stack sats - especially if they are considering long term anyhow.  You know if you are a real young person, you might not have a lot of income, but you might have a vision and an ability to put aside a few hundred dollars a month towards a vision that you believe in and hope that it will pay off in 5-10 years, and likely those kinds of folks are benefited by these kinds of keeping the price down narratives.

I attempt to prepare myself for anything, so even though I don't believe $3k to be too likely, I will likely engage in some rearranging of my BTC dedicated funds to prepare for $3k and below in the event that BTC prices start to get close to mid $5ks.  Currently my BTC dedicated funds are only really prepared for prices as low as the upper $3ks, so in that regard, any of us might have to engage in some tweaking and shuffling when unexpected extremes start to come within closer striking distances.  And, personally, I prefer to attempt to plan way in advance, even for extreme scenarios that I do not believe likely to happen, because in bitcoinlandia, the extremes (in either direction) do seem to come about a lot more frequently than any reasonable and prudent conjecture would consider within the realm of possibilities.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 11-25-2019

(11-25-2019, 06:25 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(11-25-2019, 06:01 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: almost at 3k guys, good call

Bears and doomer and gloomers do like to spout out nonsense whenever there is any negative sign in bitcoinlandia and to attempt to exacerbate some already BTC price momentum that seems to be going in their favor in the short term... furthermore, there remains these kinds of jumping to conclusion perceptions that are spouted out that sometimes seem to purposefully narrow in on short term movements and to project the imminent spiraling down of bitcoin.

Sure, in the end, these kinds of FUD spreading behaviors, even if inadvertent, can keep BTC prices down for longer periods of time, so that various bitcoin believers can continue to scoop up "cheap coins", even if it could take a few years for some of the price matters to play out.  

There are some BTC believers who believe that they are never going to get enough coins, and they don't want to engage in leveraging of any of their assets, and they only have their cash flow to buy BTC.  Maybe they can only buy a few hundred dollars a month, so periods like this can really help some of the normies to stack sats - especially if they are considering long term anyhow.  You know if you are a real young person, you might not have a lot of income, but you might have a vision and an ability to put aside a few hundred dollars a month towards a vision that you believe in and hope that it will pay off in 5-10 years, and likely those kinds of folks are benefited by these kinds of keeping the price down narratives.

I attempt to prepare myself for anything, so even though I don't believe $3k to be too likely, I will likely engage in some rearranging of my BTC dedicated funds to prepare for $3k and below in the event that BTC prices start to get close to mid $5ks.  Currently my BTC dedicated funds are only really prepared for prices as low as the upper $3ks, so in that regard, any of us might have to engage in some tweaking and shuffling when unexpected extremes start to come within closer striking distances.  And, personally, I prefer to attempt to plan way in advance, even for extreme scenarios that I do not believe likely to happen, because in bitcoinlandia, the extremes (in either direction) do seem to come about a lot more frequently than any reasonable and prudent conjecture would consider within the realm of possibilities.

It's just an extremely volatile version of any market. When there is blood in the streets, that is a good time to buy. My post on this thread saying great entry point was at 6700$, but the bears were probably laughing at me.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-25-2019

(11-25-2019, 06:30 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(11-25-2019, 06:25 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: [edited out]

It's just an extremely volatile version of any market. When there is blood in the streets, that is a good time to buy. My post on this thread saying great entry point was at 6700$, but the bears were probably laughing at me.

I don't know.

Guys are going to do what they like, and really I doubt that there is any BIG deal about whether you are right or not regarding $6,700 being a good time to buy.

Seems to me that anyone engaging in longer term attempts at bitcoin buying should not be fucking around with attempts to anticipate BTC's price anyhow, and if he does not have a decent BTC position, then he should just be buying on a regular basis at any price.  But, of course, I am not really going to disagree with you that if you can get lucky with buying on some of the dips, then you are going to be able to buy a bit more BTC than if just blindly buy BTC on a regular basis.

I have always suggested that guys who are in the earliest stages of accumulating BTC or even guys who have a longer timeline (they are not going to liquidation stage anytime soon so they are still accumulating BTC) should attempt to divide their monies into three piles.. new money and existing money that is going to be dedicated to buying BTC.  So 1/3 of the money is DCA no matter what, 1/3 is prescheduled to buy on dip, and the last 1/3 is buy right away... hahahahahahaha.. Yeah, my BTC accumulation strategy is largely skewed towards buying BTC right away rather than waiting or trying to time matters.

Of course, if a guy has already garnered a pretty decent BTC position, then his considerations of new money might be quite different in terms of largely trying to buy on dips because he is already mostly established.

A problem comes when the nocoiners (or precoiners) attempt to be too god-damned strategic for their own good, and they try to be smarter than everyone else by saying that they are waiting for a bargain price.  Yeah, some of them are going to get lucky and they are going to be right to end up buying at or near the bottom; however, historically, we have seen a lot of examples of those guys failing and refusing to pull the trigger because they are too smart for their own good.  Yeah, both of us like to laugh at those kinds of people, because some of them become disgruntled and relentless BTC bashers - who could likely be saved if they actually would get over their own self-defeating psychology.  

Anyhow, I don't really believe that it is healthy to be attempting to put too much weight on any predictions that any of us really know where is the bottom or the top, but each of us should be figuring out a prudent and reasonable BTC accumulation plan that is individually tailored to his own circumstances and does not involve too much waiting around, but instead acting to get some kind of stake in the BTC game, even if it starts out by being a whimpy ass stake that might not even be profitable in the short term.. .gotta start somewhere... and no time like the presence.  

You do know that expression, swordfish?  It goes something like this:  "The best time to buy bitcoin is yesterday.  The second best time to buy bitcoin is today."  Hahahahaha  Maybe that could be the ongoing advice that we dumbass coiners attempt to spread?  In other words, "go out there and buy some BTC, you nocoiner (or precoiner) fucks!!!!!"   Tongue


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 11-25-2019

(11-25-2019, 07:01 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(11-25-2019, 06:30 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(11-25-2019, 06:25 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: [edited out]

It's just an extremely volatile version of any market. When there is blood in the streets, that is a good time to buy. My post on this thread saying great entry point was at 6700$, but the bears were probably laughing at me.

I don't know.

Guys are going to do what they like, and really I doubt that there is any BIG deal about whether you are right or not regarding $6,700 being a good time to buy.

Seems to me that anyone engaging in longer term attempts at bitcoin buying should not be fucking around with attempts to anticipate BTC's price anyhow, and if he does not have a decent BTC position, then he should just be buying on a regular basis at any price.  But, of course, I am not really going to disagree with you that if you can get lucky with buying on some of the dips, then you are going to be able to buy a bit more BTC than if just blindly buy BTC on a regular basis.

I have always suggested that guys who are in the earliest stages of accumulating BTC or even guys who have a longer timeline (they are not going to liquidation stage anytime soon so they are still accumulating BTC) should attempt to divide their monies into three piles.. new money and existing money that is going to be dedicated to buying BTC.  So 1/3 of the money is DCA no matter what, 1/3 is prescheduled to buy on dip, and the last 1/3 is buy right away... hahahahahahaha.. Yeah, my BTC accumulation strategy is largely skewed towards buying BTC right away rather than waiting or trying to time matters.

Of course, if a guy has already garnered a pretty decent BTC position, then his considerations of new money might be quite different in terms of largely trying to buy on dips because he is already mostly established.

A problem comes when the nocoiners (or precoiners) attempt to be too god-damned strategic for their own good, and they try to be smarter than everyone else by saying that they are waiting for a bargain price.  Yeah, some of them are going to get lucky and they are going to be right to end up buying at or near the bottom; however, historically, we have seen a lot of examples of those guys failing and refusing to pull the trigger because they are too smart for their own good.  Yeah, both of us like to laugh at those kinds of people, because some of them become disgruntled and relentless BTC bashers - who could likely be saved if they actually would get over their own self-defeating psychology.  

Anyhow, I don't really believe that it is healthy to be attempting to put too much weight on any predictions that any of us really know where is the bottom or the top, but each of us should be figuring out a prudent and reasonable BTC accumulation plan that is individually tailored to his own circumstances and does not involve too much waiting around, but instead acting to get some kind of stake in the BTC game, even if it starts out by being a whimpy ass stake that might not even be profitable in the short term.. .gotta start somewhere... and no time like the presence.  

You do know that expression, swordfish?  It goes something like this:  "The best time to buy bitcoin is yesterday.  The second best time to buy bitcoin is today."  Hahahahaha  Maybe that could be the ongoing advice that we dumbass coiners attempt to spread?  In other words, "go out there and buy some BTC, you nocoiner (or precoiner) fucks!!!!!"   Tongue

Thats not true though. Markets are psychological. They are zero sum, for every winner there is a loser on the other end the trade. People that bought in at the end of 2017 thinking it was going to $1m were losers, where as people that bought in much later in the beginning of this year when there was capitulation and misery were winners. Basically, do the opposite of the masses.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-25-2019

(11-25-2019, 07:23 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(11-25-2019, 07:01 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: [edited out]

Thats not true though. Markets are psychological. They are zero sum, for every winner there is a loser on the other end the trade. People that bought in at the end of 2017 thinking it was going to $1m were losers, where as people that bought in much later in the beginning of this year when there was capitulation and misery were winners. Basically, do the opposite of the masses.

I suppose that we can agree to disagree, and likely our strategies are a bit different. I doubt that it really matters, and we don't necessarily need to be on the same page regarding effective, reasonable or prudent strategies in terms of bitcoin accumulation.

We can still talk about bitcoin and have somewhat differing strategies, no?

By the way, if anyone asserts to me that someone who goes all in towards the $19,666 BTC price top in December 2017 deserves much if any sympathy because his BTC holdings are in the negative, then I think that the person is a fucking idiot.

Of course, you can start buying at the top, but it would have been idiotic for anyone paying attention to go "all in" at those stages and not have some kind of longer term and supplement plan.

I started buying, largely, at the top in late 2013, which was $1,163, but by the time we got to the end of 2014 and the beginning of 2015, my average BTC cost was around $550 - even though the then BTC price was bouncing around largely in the $200s. By the end of 2015, my average BTC costs had gone into the lower $400s, when the price did not clearly breach above $500 until about June 2016, and who cares if I could have done better by waiting and being a bit more strategic? I tailored my plan to my own situation that included considering my purpose of getting into BTC to have been a hedge against my various dollar investments, so in that regard I had considered traditional factors such as my: cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, risk tolerance, timeline, and skills that including the time that I had to dedicate towards researching and managing that BTC part of my investment portfolio.

I have always advised against guys attempting to be overly strategic with their timing regarding bitcoin even though I understand that guys are going to vary somewhat on this point in terms of how much they are ready, willing and able to play around with timing attempts that may or may not end up getting them a better deal than just figuring out their own ways to get in without too much fucking around with second guessing BTC price that is NOT exactly an easy thing to figure out, even when you have lots of feelings and reasoning about how probable it is going to x price or to y price, blah blah blah.

Anyhow, swordfish, it does not seem to be a BIG deal that we are going to have some differing views and emphasis regarding possible strategies, and ultimately guys gotta figure out this shit for themselves, and to tailor their approach to themselves, no? It would be largely dumb for any guy to blindly follow either you, me, some other supposed BTC wannabe guru on the interwebs without actually doing a decent amount of their own introspection regarding factors that are specifically applicable to their own situation. AmiNOTrite? Tongue Tongue


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 11-25-2019

(11-25-2019, 07:54 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(11-25-2019, 07:23 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(11-25-2019, 07:01 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: [edited out]

Thats not true though. Markets are psychological. They are zero sum, for every winner there is a loser on the other end the trade. People that bought in at the end of 2017 thinking it was going to $1m were losers, where as people that bought in much later in the beginning of this year when there was capitulation and misery were winners. Basically, do the opposite of the masses.

I suppose that we can agree to disagree, and likely our strategies are a bit different.  I doubt that it really matters, and we don't necessarily need to be on the same page regarding effective, reasonable or prudent strategies in terms of bitcoin accumulation.

We can still talk about bitcoin and have somewhat differing strategies, no?

By the way, if anyone asserts to me that someone who goes all in towards the $19,666 BTC price top in December 2017 deserves much if any sympathy because his BTC holdings are in the negative, then I think that the person is a fucking idiot.  

Of course, you can start buying at the top, but it would have been idiotic for anyone paying attention to go "all in" at those stages and not have some kind of longer term and supplement plan.

I started buying, largely, at the top in late 2013, which was $1,163, but by the time we got to the end of 2014 and the beginning of 2015, my average BTC cost was around $550 - even though the then BTC price was bouncing around largely in the $200s.  By the end of 2015, my average BTC costs had gone into the lower $400s, when the price did not clearly breach above $500 until about June 2016, and who cares if I could have done better by waiting and being a bit more strategic?  I tailored my plan to my own situation that included considering my purpose of getting into BTC to have been a hedge against my various dollar investments, so in that regard I had considered traditional factors such as my: cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, risk tolerance, timeline, and skills that including the time that I had to dedicate towards researching and managing that BTC part of my investment portfolio.

I have always advised against guys attempting to be overly strategic with their timing regarding bitcoin even though I understand that guys are going to vary somewhat on this point in terms of how much they are ready, willing and able to play around with timing attempts that may or may not end up getting them a better deal than just figuring out their own ways to get in without too much fucking around with second guessing BTC price that is NOT exactly an easy thing to figure out, even when you have lots of feelings and reasoning about how probable it is going to x price or to y price, blah blah blah.

Anyhow, swordfish, it does not seem to be a BIG deal that we are going to have some differing views and emphasis regarding possible strategies, and ultimately guys gotta figure out this shit for themselves, and to tailor their approach to themselves, no?   It would be largely dumb for any guy to blindly follow either you, me, some other supposed BTC wannabe guru on the interwebs without actually doing a decent amount of their own introspection regarding factors that are specifically applicable to their own situation.  AmiNOTrite?   Tongue  Tongue

Yeah I never DCA'd. Yolo. I don't trade anymore, never did leveraged trades, but I mostly do lump sum buys. I just think that people promoting DCA as the only option is disingenuous at best, as the risk reward profile is much lower than timing the bottoms accurately, which if you remember, on RVF I pretty much called in q1 this year.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-25-2019

(11-25-2019, 08:03 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(11-25-2019, 07:54 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: [edited out]

Yeah I never DCA'd. Yolo. I don't trade anymore, never did leveraged trades, but I mostly do lump sum buys.

I am a pretty BIG advocate for DCAing, especially for regular people. And, maybe buying on dips can still be considered a form of DCAing. I am not sure when you got in, but let's say it was sometime in 2017. This can be you or any other hypothetical person, and of course, amounts are merely hypothetical too, so can be increased or decreased.

So let's say for example you have $12k that you can invest in BTC in early to mid 2017, so you decide to immediately invest $8k during some dip. Are you going to invest the whole $12k? Maybe you will and maybe you won't depending on your view of the market direction and probabilities. You know that you have another $6k that is going to come available to you in the coming 6-9months based on your cashflow and other expenses that you anticipate, so in essence that additional $6k might not come in all at once, so in your system you will attempt to be strategic about when to invest the $6k.

So yeah, we have had more than two more years pass since then, and maybe you have had additional money coming in, maybe another $12k over the next two years, so you attempt to be strategic about when you are going to deploy towards BTC such additional money that you anticipate coming in.

I would conjecture that a vast majority of other people (normies) do not want to even attempt to figure out buying on dip opportunities and attempting to time the market (yeah there are some freaks out there like yourself, but they are either a minority or they are deluded gamblers that think that they know more than they know), so in that regard, if the actual majority of normies are in a similar financial situation as you had been with the $12k and then $6k and then $12k, they would employ a different strategy that should be (in my view) heavily emphasizing DCA.

Sure, if normies do not want to engage at all they just start to dollar cost average without any kind of strategy at all, so my recommendation is a kind of hybrid of DCA that involves some attempts to buy on the dip, so I would divide that initial $12k into three parts ($4k each, of course), and then follow what I had suggested earlier buy right away with some, dca another portion which would be projected out for a reasonable period of time that accounts for projected additional cash coming in (maybe even projecting a lump sum over 6 months or more) and set up buying on dip buy orders for the other portion of the funds. And, the subsequent cashflows that come in would be treated the same way as the initial hypothetical money that had been available.

(11-25-2019, 08:03 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: I just think that people promoting DCA as the only option is disingenuous at best, as the risk reward profile is much lower than timing the bottoms accurately,

I am not going to take your little dig at DCAing personally, because it is fair enough that guys are going to have differing views on these kinds of matters, and as I attempted to outline above, I believe that normies are going to be able to figure out DCAing way better than more complicated approaches.

When you say disingenuous, you seem to be suggesting that there is some kind of malevolence with promoting DCAing, but I don't think that it true. I think that DCAing is a proven strategy that works for a whole lot of people who don't have time to be trying to figure things out and they end up overthinking matters and gambling and just getting a lot wrong. I am not trying to be patronizing regarding the skills and abilities of normies, but it takes a long fucking time to try to figure out some other strategy that would involve effective timing of any asset, whether bitcoin or otherwise. Of course, I am not really referring to other assets, even though DCAing works with any asset, so long as the long term trajectory of such asset ends up being up.. meaning that its price in the future is greater than the price today.

(11-25-2019, 08:03 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: which if you remember, on RVF I pretty much called in q1 this year.

Fair enough if you are able to predict or call various aspects of BTC's price movements, and from time to time, I have some ideas about these kinds of BTC price movement matters, as well.. But, I don't change my BTC strategy much if at all based on some anticipated BTC price moves. Of course, I have the little system of buying if the price goes down and selling if the price goes up and I also have a system of figuring out what stage I am in, whether accumulation, maintenance or liquidation and having tweaks of my plans based on those kinds of considerations, but I don't really get too excited about whether one person or another's BTC price predictions are accurate or not..... Seems like a lot of luck to me, even if sometimes more experienced guys are going to get things pretty close to correct, and I have had those too, but I don't pat myself on the back about the price going to some arena that I anticipated.. .in the end, does not matter too much in my thinking as long as orange coin go up and ultimately I am glad if it goes up on average more than my other investments, but that is merely icing on the cake.. 6% per year on average. Of course, I am up about 10x or more currently (depending on how matters are calculated), so I have found and continue to find BTC a great investment whether it merely holds its price or continues to provide surplus, icing on the cake, value that could go as high as another 50x, or even more, in the coming couple of years., but even if BTC stays flat, I am already rich from it.. so there is that. hahahahahaha question of being just normie conservative and regular rich, versus bordering upon filthy rich. Tongue


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 11-25-2019

(11-25-2019, 08:46 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(11-25-2019, 08:03 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(11-25-2019, 07:54 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: [edited out]

Yeah I never DCA'd. Yolo. I don't trade anymore, never did leveraged trades, but I mostly do lump sum buys.

I am a pretty BIG advocate for DCAing, especially for regular people.  And, maybe buying on dips can still be considered a form of DCAing.  I am not sure when you got in, but let's say it was sometime in 2017.  This can be you or any other hypothetical person, and of course, amounts are merely hypothetical too, so can be increased or decreased.

So let's say for example you have $12k that you can invest in BTC in early to mid 2017, so you decide to immediately invest $8k during some dip.  Are you going to invest the whole $12k?  Maybe you will and maybe you won't depending on your view of the market direction and probabilities.  You know that you have another $6k that is going to come available to you in the coming 6-9months based on your cashflow and other expenses that you anticipate, so in essence that additional $6k might not come in all at once, so in your system you will attempt to be strategic about when to invest the $6k.

So yeah, we have had more than two more years pass since then, and maybe you have had additional money coming in, maybe another $12k over the next two years, so you attempt to be strategic about when you are going to deploy towards BTC such additional money that you anticipate coming in.

I would conjecture that a vast majority of other people (normies) do not want to even attempt to figure out buying on dip opportunities and attempting to time the market (yeah there are some freaks out there like yourself, but they are either a minority or they are deluded gamblers that think that they know more than they know), so in that regard, if the actual majority of normies are in a similar financial situation as you had been with the $12k and then $6k and then $12k, they would employ a different strategy that should be (in my view) heavily emphasizing DCA.  

Sure, if normies do not want to engage at all they just start to dollar cost average without any kind of strategy at all, so my recommendation is a kind of hybrid of DCA that involves some attempts to buy on the dip, so I would divide that initial $12k into three parts ($4k each, of course), and then follow what I had suggested earlier buy right away with some, dca another portion which would be projected out for a reasonable period of time that accounts for projected additional cash coming in (maybe even projecting a lump sum over 6 months or more) and set up buying on dip buy orders for the other portion of the funds.  And, the subsequent cashflows that come in would be treated the same way as the initial hypothetical money that had been available.

(11-25-2019, 08:03 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: I just think that people promoting DCA as the only option is disingenuous at best, as the risk reward profile is much lower than timing the bottoms accurately,

I am not going to take your little dig at DCAing personally, because it is fair enough that guys are going to have differing views on these kinds of matters, and as I attempted to outline above, I believe that normies are going to be able to figure out DCAing way better than more complicated approaches.

When you say disingenuous, you seem to be suggesting that there is some kind of malevolence with promoting DCAing, but I don't think that it true.  I think that DCAing is a proven strategy that works for a whole lot of people who don't have time to be trying to figure things out and they end up overthinking matters and gambling and just getting a lot wrong.  I am not trying to be patronizing regarding the skills and abilities of normies, but it takes a long fucking time to try to figure out some other strategy that would involve effective timing of any asset, whether bitcoin or otherwise.  Of course, I am not really referring to other assets, even though DCAing works with any asset, so long as the long term trajectory of such asset ends up being up.. meaning that its price in the future is greater than the price today.

(11-25-2019, 08:03 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: which if you remember, on RVF I pretty much called in q1 this year.

Fair enough if you are able to predict or call various aspects of BTC's price movements, and from time to time, I have some ideas about these kinds of BTC price movement matters, as well.. But, I don't change my BTC strategy much if at all based on some anticipated BTC price moves.  Of course, I have the little system of buying if the price goes down and selling if the price goes up and I also have a system of figuring out what stage I am in, whether accumulation, maintenance or liquidation and having tweaks of my plans based on those kinds of considerations, but I don't really get too excited about whether one person or another's BTC price predictions are accurate or not.....  Seems like a lot of luck to me, even if sometimes more experienced guys are going to get things pretty close to correct, and I have had those too, but I don't pat myself on the back about the price going to some arena that I anticipated.. .in the end, does not matter too much in my thinking as long as orange coin go up and ultimately I am glad if it goes up on average more than my other investments, but that is merely icing on the cake.. 6% per year on average.  Of course, I am up about 10x or more currently (depending on how matters are calculated), so I have found and continue to find BTC a great investment whether it merely holds its price or continues to provide surplus, icing on the cake, value that could go as high as another 50x, or even more, in the coming couple of years., but even if BTC stays flat, I am already rich from it.. so there is that. hahahahahaha  question of being just normie conservative and regular rich, versus bordering upon filthy rich.  Tongue
Not a slight at you by any means, but people are going to do what they are going to do so acting like dca is the only option is like saying abstinence from sex is the only option. At least discussing the psychology around markets will hopefully prevent people from going all in when it is peak euphoria and then get rekt. Dca is an option for less risk, but with risk comes reward. This applies to all markets. I did the same thing with buying my house after the crash when every Tom dick and Harry told me how stupid of a decision it was, when those same people bought at 2007 when “prices could only go up”

I do think lump summing now is a better option than dcaing given how close we are to the next halving. I highly doubt we will ever see 6500 again, let alone 3000.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-25-2019

(11-25-2019, 09:18 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(11-25-2019, 08:46 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: [edited out]
Not a slight at you by any means, but people are going to do what they are going to do so acting like dca is the only option is like saying abstinence from sex is the only option.

I am hardly asserting that DCA is the "only" option, but I am asserting that it is a good place to get started option, which getting started seems to be a decently-sized barrier to a lot of people.  Of course,  once started, then there is a lot more abilities to actively attempt to learn more and to build out a personally customized strategy that may
or may not chose to continue with DCAing.  Furthermore, my reading of your strategy, even if it is lump-summing still involves some aspect of DCAing because you are continuing to buy as money comes available to you.  Of course, you believe that you are doing something else, but whatever, that is on your own perception and characterization of what you are doing, which has not really been described with much particularity, beyond my attempting to hypothesize about it.

By the way, along the same lines, if you are trying to describe a strategy that involves buying on dips and understanding BTC in order to recognize when is a dip and when is not a dip, then how the fuck you going to get normies to start with a system like you, unless they are not really normies, and you are trying to appeal to some kind of players that are already sophisticated?

As an example, I really like Trace Mayer, but sometimes you listen to him talk about how people need to take their own responsibility, and he will describe like three aspects of coins security, and I say holy fuck.. no one is going do those things except for the technical nerdy geeks.  People sometimes have to start by something really simple, and that might even be buying on coinbase or some other relatively easy to set up exchange, and working their way to something a bit more complicated.  The same is true for other investing methodologies besides DCA.  

Go ahead, describe what you are going to suggest that some hypothetical newbie (normie) does who has $12k to invest, plus relative certainty that he is going have another $6k of  cashflow over the next 9 months plus an additional $6k over the year following that.  If he is not going to follow DCA, outline what you want him to do over the next two years with his already existing investment amount and his anticipated cashflow.  Come on; be practical about it and don't assume that he is going to have the same level of ambition as you because that is pure pie in the sky expectations regarding what normies are.  In other words, you are not a normie...  Tongue  Tongue .

(11-25-2019, 09:18 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: At least discussing the psychology around markets will hopefully prevent people from going all in when it is peak euphoria and then get rekt.

O.k.  So their strategy is going to be to get a feeling for it, and then invest  like that?  Is that teachable?

(11-25-2019, 09:18 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: Dca is an option for less risk, but with risk comes reward.

Investing in bitcoin is already risky, so you are suggesting that guys take risk over risk.  Isn't that called gambling?  You are recommending gambling?  I surely am not recommending gambling.  I am recommending prudence and to try to remove most of the gambling out of the investment strategies of guys beyond the already existent gambling on the already existent expectation that bitcoin is a solid future investment (which is a probability consideration, not a sure thing).

(11-25-2019, 09:18 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: This applies to all markets. I did the same thing with buying my house after the crash when every Tom dick and Harry told me how stupid of a decision it was, when those same people bought at 2007 when “prices could only go up”

You are already proving my point that you are no normie.  Do you only want non-normies like yourself to invest in bitcoin, or do you want to appeal to normies?  Remember normies are way more than 80% of the population - pareto distribution.  Are you discriminating against normies?   Sad  

(11-25-2019, 09:18 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: I do think lump summing now is a better option than dcaing given how close we are to the next halving.

I agree that there are decent chances that you could be right, so in that regard, from my perspective, there may be some preferences to front load a DCA-like approach, but in the end, whoever is our potential audience we should be both attempting to tailor to their own preferences and their situation, so it is difficult to tell some guy to go "all in" with whatever amount of cash that he supposedly has if we don't even understand his situation with any kind of precision.. which maybe brings us back to the hypothetical guy that has $12k now, $6k over the next 9 months and another $6k over the next year.  Let's get to specifics, how is the swordfish investment methodology going to direct this hypothetical guy what to do without having to hold the bastard's hands the whole time?

(11-25-2019, 09:18 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: I highly doubt we will ever see 6500 again, let alone 3000.

Well, your high doubting may or may not come true.  I don't mind preparing for such, and it makes me feel good.

I think that we have close to a 50% chance of seeing $6,500 again, maybe even higher, and $3ks are surely a lot less likely.  Upper $3ks might be in the ballpark of 25% and lower $3ks might be in the less than 20% arena.  Surely, I consider $3ks a lot more likely than I would have considered a couple of months ago, so I am largely guessing, but I still like to have a plan just in case extreme scenarios happen, which has happened in my experiences in bitcoin several times, both to the upside and to the downside.  But maybe I am not as much of a soothsayer as you, yet I could give two ratt's asses  about your potential soothsayer abilities as compared with my own.  The main factor in my own investment that matters is my own psychology and finances, and not the potential soothsayer status of anyone else, and I am not saying that I completely ignore what others have to say, but I take it into account and come to conclusions that are comfortable to me in terms of my own various financial situational factors that I already listed (for shits and giggles I will list again as my cash flow, other investments, view about bitcoin as compared with my other investments and other possible investments, my timeline, my risk tolerance, my skills, desires and abilities to spend time managing/researching these aspects of my investment portfolio).


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 11-25-2019

(11-25-2019, 10:43 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(11-25-2019, 09:18 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(11-25-2019, 08:46 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: [edited out]
Not a slight at you by any means, but people are going to do what they are going to do so acting like dca is the only option is like saying abstinence from sex is the only option.

I am hardly asserting that DCA is the "only" option, but I am asserting that it is a good place to get started option, which getting started seems to be a decently-sized barrier to a lot of people.  Of course,  once started, then there is a lot more abilities to actively attempt to learn more and to build out a personally customized strategy that may
or may not chose to continue with DCAing.  Furthermore, my reading of your strategy, even if it is lump-summing still involves some aspect of DCAing because you are continuing to buy as money comes available to you.  Of course, you believe that you are doing something else, but whatever, that is on your own perception and characterization of what you are doing, which has not really been described with much particularity, beyond my attempting to hypothesize about it.

By the way, along the same lines, if you are trying to describe a strategy that involves buying on dips and understanding BTC in order to recognize when is a dip and when is not a dip, then how the fuck you going to get normies to start with a system like you, unless they are not really normies, and you are trying to appeal to some kind of players that are already sophisticated?

As an example, I really like Trace Mayer, but sometimes you listen to him talk about how people need to take their own responsibility, and he will describe like three aspects of coins security, and I say holy fuck.. no one is going do those things except for the technical nerdy geeks.  People sometimes have to start by something really simple, and that might even be buying on coinbase or some other relatively easy to set up exchange, and working their way to something a bit more complicated.  The same is true for other investing methodologies besides DCA.  

Go ahead, describe what you are going to suggest that some hypothetical newbie (normie) does who has $12k to invest, plus relative certainty that he is going have another $6k of  cashflow over the next 9 months plus an additional $6k over the year following that.  If he is not going to follow DCA, outline what you want him to do over the next two years with his already existing investment amount and his anticipated cashflow.  Come on; be practical about it and don't assume that he is going to have the same level of ambition as you because that is pure pie in the sky expectations regarding what normies are.  In other words, you are not a normie...  Tongue  Tongue .

(11-25-2019, 09:18 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: At least discussing the psychology around markets will hopefully prevent people from going all in when it is peak euphoria and then get rekt.

O.k.  So their strategy is going to be to get a feeling for it, and then invest  like that?  Is that teachable?

(11-25-2019, 09:18 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: Dca is an option for less risk, but with risk comes reward.

Investing in bitcoin is already risky, so you are suggesting that guys take risk over risk.  Isn't that called gambling?  You are recommending gambling?  I surely am not recommending gambling.  I am recommending prudence and to try to remove most of the gambling out of the investment strategies of guys beyond the already existent gambling on the already existent expectation that bitcoin is a solid future investment (which is a probability consideration, not a sure thing).

(11-25-2019, 09:18 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: This applies to all markets. I did the same thing with buying my house after the crash when every Tom dick and Harry told me how stupid of a decision it was, when those same people bought at 2007 when “prices could only go up”

You are already proving my point that you are no normie.  Do you only want non-normies like yourself to invest in bitcoin, or do you want to appeal to normies?  Remember normies are way more than 80% of the population - pareto distribution.  Are you discriminating against normies?   Sad  

(11-25-2019, 09:18 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: I do think lump summing now is a better option than dcaing given how close we are to the next halving.

I agree that there are decent chances that you could be right, so in that regard, from my perspective, there may be some preferences to front load a DCA-like approach, but in the end, whoever is our potential audience we should be both attempting to tailor to their own preferences and their situation, so it is difficult to tell some guy to go "all in" with whatever amount of cash that he supposedly has if we don't even understand his situation with any kind of precision.. which maybe brings us back to the hypothetical guy that has $12k now, $6k over the next 9 months and another $6k over the next year.  Let's get to specifics, how is the swordfish investment methodology going to direct this hypothetical guy what to do without having to hold the bastard's hands the whole time?

(11-25-2019, 09:18 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: I highly doubt we will ever see 6500 again, let alone 3000.

Well, your high doubting may or may not come true.  I don't mind preparing for such, and it makes me feel good.

I think that we have close to a 50% chance of seeing $6,500 again, maybe even higher, and $3ks are surely a lot less likely.  Upper $3ks might be in the ballpark of 25% and lower $3ks might be in the less than 20% arena.  Surely, I consider $3ks a lot more likely than I would have considered a couple of months ago, so I am largely guessing, but I still like to have a plan just in case extreme scenarios happen, which has happened in my experiences in bitcoin several times, both to the upside and to the downside.  But maybe I am not as much of a soothsayer as you, yet I could give two ratt's asses  about your potential soothsayer abilities as compared with my own.  The main factor in my own investment that matters is my own psychology and finances, and not the potential soothsayer status of anyone else, and I am not saying that I completely ignore what others have to say, but I take it into account and come to conclusions that are comfortable to me in terms of my own various financial situational factors that I already listed (for shits and giggles I will list again as my cash flow, other investments, view about bitcoin as compared with my other investments and other possible investments, my timeline, my risk tolerance, my skills, desires and abilities to spend time managing/researching these aspects of my investment portfolio).

Yeah I would say that my strategy at this point was lump summing and now buying the dips as I’m running out of investment capital. To me, dca is buying a little bit each day/week/month regardless of the price. It’s all anyone ever recommends on twitter and I think that’s mostly from the 2017 rise and crash where people got over extended. My perspective comes from first trading forex in college, online poker, and bitcoin before I realized trading the scarcest asset in the world was a bad idea, and to just hodl. I also was raised by my father to have an investor mindset which really helped immensely over my peers who grew up with zero financial education. I’m just giving my perspective because it has worked for me and I’m glad I didn’t listen to the standard advice of dca only and “only invest what you can afford to lose” or “1% of your net worth.” I can’t afford to lose anything and my net worth is not high, but I am also young so this is the time to take on more risk. To me, this is not good advice and it only comes from a position of fear and not wanting to be accountable if the market crashes. What I have learned is that no one really accepts personal responsibility anyways, and the same people that you are trying to save by giving that advice will hold you responsible if it rises and they only put in like $100, “why didn’t you tell me to buy more?!” All I am giving is my perspective which I wish someone had taught me and I didn’t have to learn the hard way. That’s all. 

Yes I do think recognizing market sentiment is teachable. Markets are made up of humans who have human emotions. When everyone is sure about something, do the opposite. When people are fearful, be greedy. When people are greedy, be fearful. You have to have big cajones to do this in practice, but this is pretty common advice in general investing. I never really hear it in the bitcoin space though, just the above advice, which is not the full picture. 

This space is going to create lots of new wealth, and I somewhat feel it is my moral responsibility to counter some of the false perceptions that are holding people back from identifying really the only opportunity out that will save them from the coming global crisis. People can choose to listen or not, that’s not my problem, I just would rather go to sleep knowing I at least said something. It feels like the early days of the internet, but even more misunderstood as money is more important than information. The same people that did not have the foresight to see how impactful the internet would be on society are making the same exact mistake with bitcoin, and frankly I understand why as it is such an interdisciplinary topic and money in general is so taboo to talk about (for a reason, stay asleep neo).


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 11-26-2019

https://medium.com/swlh/bitcoin-halving-everything-you-need-to-know-4573dc5b528e

Good medium post about the halvings.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-26-2019

(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(11-25-2019, 10:43 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: [edited out]

Yeah I would say that my strategy at this point was lump summing and now buying the dips as I’m running out of investment capital.

I imagine that you made some lump sum investments into bitcoin, and thereafter you have a certain kind of expectation regarding your regular cashflow, including your planning for your cashflow, and there might be some variation in your expectations and even some surprises in your cashflow from time to time, both on the more expenses than expected side or more cash available to invest than expected side.

So if your cashflow is regular, and let's say you generally have $200 per month that you can invest into BTC, so instead of investing that $200 right away when it comes in, you might wait for 1-6 months and try to time a kind of local BTC bottom in order to buy at such bottom, and maybe if we are in what seems to be a prolonged downtrend, you might even wait longer to buy, if such downtrend seems foreseeable to anticipate; however, let's say that you made your initial investment in BTC in 2017 and you bought in at around $3k, but you saw the BTC price rising so if you were to have expenses and a regular cashflow, you just saved up your $200 per month until you found a decent place to buy -which would have been long after the late 2017 peak and waiting until a dip.

Don't tell me that you waited all the way until December 2018 to buy, so what I am saying is that if you were in BTC or attempting to get into BTC you had to make several BTC purchases at various points before the December 2018 bottom because you ended up believing that the bottom had been reached. I would be quite surprised if someone waited to buy BTC until after the bottom and then somewhere on the way up (after the 12/18 bottom) such person figured out that it was time to get in because the bottom had been reached. Seems like both a losing and a stressful strategy to me, if any guy is following such a waiting strategy and trying to figure out when the bottom in BTC is in.


(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: To me, dca is buying a little bit each day/week/month regardless of the price.

Sure. That is the most basic approach, which sometimes is good enough for some folks to follow the most basic of DCAing.

(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: It’s all anyone ever recommends on twitter and I think that’s mostly from the 2017 rise and crash where people got over extended.

It's a solid approach. Of course, people can vary it, and people can turn it into a losing strategy if they play it wrong, but overall it is quite solid.



(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: My perspective comes from first trading forex in college, online poker, and bitcoin before I realized trading the scarcest asset in the world was a bad idea, and to just hodl.

There are ways to make trading work too in terms of making money - and depending on what other things that you might be wanting to accomplish. I personally don't claim to be a trader, even though technically I am because I sell small amounts of BTC if the price goes up and use those proceeds to buy back, but I like to consider what I do as swing trading rather than day trading even though the line between swing trading and day trading can be somewhat unclear especially if Bitcoin goes on an extreme volatility tear, which happens from time to time.


(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  I also was raised by my father to have an investor mindset which really helped immensely over my peers who grew up with zero financial education.

Sure, having some training is likely going to help.

(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: I’m just giving my perspective because it has worked for me and I’m glad I didn’t listen to the standard advice of dca only and “only invest what you can afford to lose” or “1% of your net worth.” I can’t afford to lose anything and my net worth is not high, but I am also young so this is the time to take on more risk.

Sounds like you have developed a lot of resentment over strategies that are different from your own.

(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: To me, this is not good advice and it only comes from a position of fear and not wanting to be accountable if the market crashes.

Hopefully people are accountable to themselves and mostly just competing with themselves rather than competing with others. I could give any shits if you make more or less money than me, especially if I found a system that works for me. I don't mind attempting to learn from some ideas of other guys or even sharing some of my ideas with other guys which such sharing of experiences and thoughts sometimes can help in the learning process, too.


(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: What I have learned is that no one really accepts personal responsibility anyways,

Some people are better at it than others, but who cares? The main thing would be attempting to learn from your mistakes and trying to improve yourself, to the extent that you want to improve yourself. I meet all kinds of people on the web and even in real life that might only want to do so much, so the motivation has to come from within, too. I have introduced some people to bitcoin, and some have taken up the opportunity and others have not, and even some of them who take up opportunities in bitcoin have to find their own system because they may or may not be able to follow the system that I employ for myself.

(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: and the same people that you are trying to save by giving that advice will hold you responsible if it rises and they only put in like $100, “why didn’t you tell me to buy more?!”

Surely, I could give two shits about other people. Very few people chose to invest in bitcoin, and surely I don't claim to be giving advice to them or trying to save them; however, if they want to talk about my experiences, then I will frequently share my experiences and even my strategies, but if they are not interested I do not pursue. Of course, I understand that people will seek advise, and largely I refuse to take responsibility for advising them, and I will say that investing or not is up to them.

(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: All I am giving is my perspective which I wish someone had taught me and I didn’t have to learn the hard way. That’s all. 

Most of the time people have to learn on their own anyhow, but if you provide some alternative approach, then of course, they can consider whether they sufficiently understand or believe in your approach versus something such as DCAing... they might not even understand DCAing, so sometimes there can be some discussion of that for anyone who is interested in discussing such concepts or even comparing various possible approaches though frequently any of us is going to gravitate towards showing our own approach, especially that is what we know the best.

(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: Yes I do think recognizing market sentiment is teachable. Markets are made up of humans who have human emotions. When everyone is sure about something, do the opposite.

Seems like a difficult trading strategy to employ to me.


(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: When people are fearful, be greedy.
Easier said than done, in my thinking, even though I don't disagree overall with the concept. You do need to be investing in something that is fundamentally strong, or that you believe in the fundamentals to go against the grain like that.


(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: When people are greedy, be fearful.

yes. ... same idea, just the opposite... and sure I know that warren buffet is famous for such quote.

(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: You have to have big cajones to do this in practice, but this is pretty common advice in general investing. I never really hear it in the bitcoin space though, just the above advice, which is not the full picture. 

I have heard it quite a bit, and sometimes people saying it are right and sometimes they are not. Funny how that works, which it does not seem to work too well, sometimes. Of course, some people are not going to reveal too many details when they lose and sometimes they brag too much, too.

(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: This space is going to create lots of new wealth, and I somewhat feel it is my moral responsibility to counter some of the false perceptions that are holding people back from identifying really the only opportunity out that will save them from the coming global crisis.

I am not sure if I feel any moral responsibility, but it can be helpful to share information and to attempt to correct misinformation, when possible. I have gotten caught up in some misleading information, and sometimes it is difficult to identify the good from the bad.

(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: People can choose to listen or not, that’s not my problem, I just would rather go to sleep knowing I at least said something.

I suppose.


(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: It feels like the early days of the internet, but even more misunderstood as money is more important than information.

Bitcoin is built on top of internet technologies, so in that regard, seems to be taking value preservation and transfer to a higher level.

(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: The same people that did not have the foresight to see how impactful the internet would be on society are making the same exact mistake with bitcoin,

Some of the people from the 90s are dead now. Sure others are around, but I don't know if the same people would be participating in the same way, we are more than 20 years later, but whatever. Sure bitcoin is related to the internet in several ways.

(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: and frankly I understand why as it is such an interdisciplinary topic and money in general is so taboo to talk about (for a reason, stay asleep neo).

Communication on the internet is much easier than it was 10 or 20 years ago, too, and we can be anonymous or quasi-anonymous, to the extent that we choose. More open communication has its pluses and minuses and of course there can be some needs and skills that are necessary to sort through the good, bad and ugly including memes and misinformation etc etc.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 11-26-2019

(11-26-2019, 01:43 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(11-25-2019, 10:43 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: [edited out]

Yeah I would say that my strategy at this point was lump summing and now buying the dips as I’m running out of investment capital.

I imagine that you made some lump sum investments into bitcoin, and thereafter you have a certain kind of expectation regarding your regular cashflow, including your planning for your cashflow, and there might be some variation in your expectations and even some surprises in your cashflow from time to time, both on the more expenses than expected side or more cash available to invest than expected side.

So if your cashflow is regular, and let's say you generally have $200 per month that you can invest into BTC, so instead of investing that $200 right away when it comes in, you might wait for 1-6 months and try to time a kind of local BTC bottom in order to buy at such bottom, and maybe if we are in what seems to be a prolonged downtrend, you might even wait longer to buy, if such downtrend seems foreseeable to anticipate; however, let's say that you made your initial investment in BTC in 2017 and you bought in at around $3k, but you saw the BTC price rising so if you were to have expenses and a regular cashflow, you just saved up your $200 per month until you found a decent place to buy -which would have been long after the late 2017 peak and waiting until a dip.

Don't tell me that you waited all the way until December 2018 to buy, so what I am saying is that if you were in BTC or attempting to get into BTC you had to make several BTC purchases  at various points before the December 2018 bottom because you ended up believing that the bottom had been reached.  I would be quite surprised if someone waited to buy BTC until after the bottom and then somewhere on the way up (after the 12/18 bottom) such person figured out that it was time to get in because the bottom had been reached.  Seems like both a losing and a stressful strategy to me, if any guy is following such a waiting strategy and trying to figure out when the bottom in BTC is in.


(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: To me, dca is buying a little bit each day/week/month regardless of the price.

Sure.  That is the most basic approach, which sometimes is good enough for some folks to follow the most basic of DCAing.

(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: It’s all anyone ever recommends on twitter and I think that’s mostly from the 2017 rise and crash where people got over extended.

It's a solid approach.  Of course, people can vary it, and people can turn it into a losing strategy if they play it wrong, but overall it is quite solid.



(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: My perspective comes from first trading forex in college, online poker, and bitcoin before I realized trading the scarcest asset in the world was a bad idea, and to just hodl.

There are ways to make trading work too in terms of making money - and depending on what other things that you might be wanting to accomplish.  I personally don't claim to be a trader, even though technically I am because I sell small amounts of BTC if the price goes up and use those proceeds to buy back, but I like to consider what I do as swing trading rather than day trading even though the line between swing trading and day trading can be somewhat unclear especially if Bitcoin goes on an extreme volatility tear, which happens from time to time.


(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  I also was raised by my father to have an investor mindset which really helped immensely over my peers who grew up with zero financial education.

Sure, having some training is likely going to help.

(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: I’m just giving my perspective because it has worked for me and I’m glad I didn’t listen to the standard advice of dca only and “only invest what you can afford to lose” or “1% of your net worth.” I can’t afford to lose anything and my net worth is not high, but I am also young so this is the time to take on more risk.

Sounds like you have developed a lot of resentment over strategies that are different from your own.

(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: To me, this is not good advice and it only comes from a position of fear and not wanting to be accountable if the market crashes.

Hopefully people are accountable to themselves and mostly just competing with themselves rather than competing with others.  I could give any shits if you make more or less money than me, especially if I found a system that works for me.  I don't mind attempting to learn from some ideas of other guys or even sharing some of my ideas with other guys which such sharing of experiences and thoughts sometimes can help in the learning process, too.


(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: What I have learned is that no one really accepts personal responsibility anyways,

Some people are better at it than others, but who cares?  The main thing would be attempting to learn from your mistakes and trying to improve yourself, to the extent that you want to improve yourself.  I meet all kinds of people on the web and even in real life that might only want to do so much, so the motivation has to come from within, too.  I have introduced some people to bitcoin, and some have taken up the opportunity and others have not, and even some of them who take up opportunities in bitcoin have to find their own system because they may or may not be able to follow the system that I employ for myself.

(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: and the same people that you are trying to save by giving that advice will hold you responsible if it rises and they only put in like $100, “why didn’t you tell me to buy more?!”

Surely, I could give two shits about other people.  Very few people chose to invest in bitcoin, and surely I don't claim to be giving advice to them or trying to save them; however, if they want to talk about my experiences, then I will frequently share my experiences and even my strategies, but if they are not interested I do not pursue.  Of course, I understand that people will seek advise, and largely I refuse to take responsibility for advising them, and I will say that investing or not is up to them.

(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: All I am giving is my perspective which I wish someone had taught me and I didn’t have to learn the hard way. That’s all. 

Most of the time people have to learn on their own anyhow, but if you provide some alternative approach, then of course, they can  consider whether they sufficiently understand or believe in your approach versus something such as DCAing... they might not even understand DCAing, so sometimes there can be some discussion of that for anyone who is interested in discussing such concepts or even comparing various possible approaches though frequently any of us is going to gravitate towards showing our own approach, especially that is what we know the best.

(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: Yes I do think recognizing market sentiment is teachable. Markets are made up of humans who have human emotions. When everyone is sure about something, do the opposite.

Seems like a difficult trading strategy to employ to me.


(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: When people are fearful, be greedy.
Easier said than done, in my thinking, even though I don't disagree overall with the concept.  You do need to be investing in something that is fundamentally strong, or that you believe in the fundamentals to go against the grain like that.


(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: When people are greedy, be fearful.

yes. ... same idea, just the opposite... and sure I know that warren buffet is famous for such quote.

(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: You have to have big cajones to do this in practice, but this is pretty common advice in general investing. I never really hear it in the bitcoin space though, just the above advice, which is not the full picture. 

I have heard it quite a bit, and sometimes people saying it are right and sometimes they are not.  Funny how that works, which it does not seem to work too well, sometimes.  Of course, some people are not going to reveal too many details when they lose and sometimes they brag too much, too.

(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: This space is going to create lots of new wealth, and I somewhat feel it is my moral responsibility to counter some of the false perceptions that are holding people back from identifying really the only opportunity out that will save them from the coming global crisis.

I am not sure if I feel any moral responsibility, but it can be helpful to share information and to attempt to correct misinformation, when  possible.  I have gotten caught up in some misleading information, and sometimes it is difficult to identify the good from the bad.

(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: People can choose to listen or not, that’s not my problem, I just would rather go to sleep knowing I at least said something.

I suppose.


(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: It feels like the early days of the internet, but even more misunderstood as money is more important than information.

Bitcoin is built on top of internet technologies, so in that regard, seems to be taking value preservation and transfer to a higher level.

(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: The same people that did not have the foresight to see how impactful the internet would be on society are making the same exact mistake with bitcoin,

Some of the people from the 90s are dead now.  Sure others are around, but I don't know if the same people would be participating in the same way, we are more than 20 years later, but whatever.  Sure bitcoin is related to the internet in several ways.

(11-25-2019, 11:22 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: and frankly I understand why as it is such an interdisciplinary topic and money in general is so taboo to talk about (for a reason, stay asleep neo).

Communication on the internet is much easier than it was 10 or 20 years ago, too, and we can be anonymous or quasi-anonymous, to the extent that we choose.  More open communication has its pluses and minuses and of course there can be some needs and skills that are necessary to sort through the good, bad and ugly including memes and misinformation etc etc.

Let’s say you have 10k to invest right now. You can join the elite club of wholecoiners and then some. If you dca and spread it out over the next 6 months, you will most likely not be able to join this club. Timestamp this.

Or you can follow the normie advice, put 1% of it in, and never join that club, never even get close, and live life with regrets. Buy bonds and annuities and other stupid shit with the other 99% lol.

People need to stop thinking in terms of fiat and in terms of bitcoin. There are only 21m bitcoin that will ever exist. Likely ~4m of them are lost forever. Many of the early adopters hold much more than 1 bitcoin. Therefore having 1 btc puts you in a position that most people will never be able to be in. Less than 10m people in the world will ever have that much (probably way less than that given the early distribution/whales) and that is only counting humans. Banks, central banks, corporations, etc. will likely own bitcoin too. There are way more fiat millionaires than can ever have a whole bitcoin. We will be using sats as the unit of account in the future, not bitcoins. People don’t understand what a crazy opportunity is right in front of their faces.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-26-2019

(11-26-2019, 02:03 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(11-26-2019, 01:43 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote: [edited out]

Let’s say you have 10k to invest right now. You can join the elite club of wholecoiners and then some. If you dca and spread it out over the next 6 months, you will most likely not be able to join this club. Timestamp this.

Well you are kind of cooperating with the hypothetical at least to provide a lump sum amount and to say what you would do. My actual hypothetical suggested 1) $12k to be available right now (which happens to be divisible by three for ease of consideration of the plan that I had proposed, which does not need to be repeated) and 2) the existence of a cashflow too that could be allocated to bitcoin that would provide an additional $12k ($6k and $6k) over the next 22 months. Of course, there can be decisions to front load a bit more, but if you use all of the sum (even $10k that is in your variation of the hypothetical), you have no money left to buy on dips, if there are any... but whatever, your choice to do what you believe is good for yourself both financially and psychologically.

Even though I am quoting this, there is no need to timestamp and blah blah blah attempt to compare dicks on these kinds of matters because what might be prudent for one guy or another is certainly within any guy's discretion to attempt to figure out and that guy should be competing with himself in terms of trying to figure out what is best for him based on his circumstances rather than either dick measuring or retrospectively second guessing himself. Sure it is great for any guy to learn from his experiences, including learning about what style(s) of investment works for him and given the context of what is going on in the market, too.

(11-26-2019, 02:03 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: Or you can follow the normie advice, put 1% of it in, and never join that club, never even get close, and live life with regrets. Buy bonds and annuities and other stupid shit with the other 99% lol.

Well, we did not really get into the question of whether diversification might be prudent right now, or if a guy already had happened to have been somewhat diversified within the hypothetical, then from where did he get the money that he had available for investing? I was already assuming some level of diversification that allowed for the allocation of $12k towards BTC, but your response would question that assumption and present some other facts and other possible considerations in which a guy might not already be somewhat diversified, and if he were considering BTC as his only investment or happened to be his starting investment?

Of course, $10k could represent 1% to 10% of a guy's already existent investments, or it could be like you suggested, that he has no other investments, but somehow all of a sudden has $10k that he would be ready, willing and able to invest into BTC as if that were his total moneys... Interesting twist.

Of course, if $10k were all the money that a guy had for investment purposes in the whole wide-world, then surely that guy would be confronted with thinking about whether it would be prudent for him to diversify somewhat or not, and yeah of course if he is a young buck.. something like early 20s or something like that, then he may feel that he has more freedom to put all investments into one basket such as BTC, and I am not saying that would not be a prudent approach for some guy in his early 20s who happens to have $10k (or $12k) and an extra cashflow of $12k that can be dedicated to BTC over the next 22 months (surely not recommending diversifying into shitcoins, that's for sure... hahahahahahaa)...

Surely, questions about what investments are available to a guy, such as a 401k with matching funds (hardly anyone has those kinds of investment opportunities these days, especially in their early 20s, either, fuck).

I personally suggest 1% to 10% into bitcoin, so 1% would the minimum of quasi-liquid investment funds get put into bitcoin, of course, if guys are bullish as fuck like you, then they might chose higher allocations, and if $10k is the only fucking investment money that they ever had, then it might be o.k. to go completely into bitcoin with that, as long as their various living expenses, including having an emergency fund are covered, which is already assumed to be the case from the hypotheticals asserted availability of the $10k for investing into bitcoin.

When I first got started into investing into anything (that was in the 80s), I started out with just one asset classes, and built up my asset classes, and surely I had thought that I was balling, but I did end up balling less than I thought that I was when I go back and review it... But $10k or $12k would have gone a lot further back then, too. Anyhow, like I already mentioned, I would not assume that starting out in one asset would be a bad thing for someone who is just getting started in investing.. so in that regard, we do have to know our audience or the parameters of our hypothetical.

When I first started into bitcoin, I allocated an initial investment amount that would cover 6 months (but yeah of course were then at the top of what was already known to have been a 100x price increase over the previous year), so my considerations at that time was somewhat different from how any guy might choose to allocate today. I looked back at my records, and it appears that I allocated about 4.5% of my total investments to go into bitcoin over those initial 6 months, so I was kind of balancing my allocations as I went.

Since BTC prices currently are not at the top of an exponential rise but in the midst of about a two year long correction towards to lower part of that price range, then there could be some justification to go deeper balls in. If we are comparing what seems to be BTC's price performance in the 4-year fractal, our current situation in terms of BTC price location and potential seems to be like in the early 2016 aspect of such fractal pattern which is similar to bouncing around in the $300 to $500 range for that time frame (even though past performance cannot guarantee future results).

So yeah, the considerations now are a bit different than the ones that I had which could potentially justify a bit more front loading now based on being within a decently-sized correction, and any guy should be considering those kinds of matters for himself and concluding for himself..

Just to finish off my own situation, after I had used my initial allocation over the first six months of my investment. I see that i reached a bit more than 10% allocation in the next 6 months, and then in the next year, since both BTC prices were down and my cashflow was kind of mediocre, I reached about 13-14% by October 2015 when BTC prices thereafter began to go up exponentially. So a bit of a weird kind of situation was that for the whole of 2014 and 2015, my networth had not changed very much even though I was reallocating my distribution into bitcoin. Stranger things have happened, but that is how my situation looks in retrospect.


(11-26-2019, 02:03 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: People need to stop thinking in terms of fiat and in terms of bitcoin.

I don't really like such an expression, because we do live in a fiat dominated world, but I understand what you are saying. The vast majority of normies still have our incomes, cashflows and expenses in fiat, and surely part of the reason that I got into bitcoin was to diversify out of fiat somewhat, and even though my goal for myself had been to aim for around 10% bitcoin, I overshot my goal, and surely my whole fucking networth has become more lopsided in terms of bitcoin, but that still does not mean that I can completely ignore fiat because I have a decent amount of ongoing cashflow and expenses in fiat...

(11-26-2019, 02:03 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: There are only 21m bitcoin that will ever exist.

Hey you don't need to argue the bitcoin scarcity, sound money value proposition to me, I am already living it, but I doubt that guys are just going to jump into such perspective, and again would depend upon if he has any already existing investments and does he have any in BTC and where does he start? I doubt that he would necessarily want to go 100% in unless he has already somehow gotten his toe wet first and even got bitten by the bitcoin bug, first.

(11-26-2019, 02:03 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: Likely ~4m of them are lost forever.
True.

(11-26-2019, 02:03 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: Many of the early adopters hold much more than 1 bitcoin.

Of course, but I think that there have been some attempted studies to show that distribution of wealth is likely getting a bit better in bitcoin, even though there surely are some BIGGER players in terms of how much they hold.

(11-26-2019, 02:03 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: Therefore having 1 btc puts you in a position that most people will never be able to be in. Less than 10m people in the world will ever have that much (probably way less than that given the early distribution/whales)  and that is only counting humans. Banks, central banks, corporations, etc. will likely own bitcoin too. There are way more fiat millionaires than can ever have a whole bitcoin. We will be using sats as the unit of account in the future, not bitcoins. People don’t understand what a crazy opportunity is right in front of their faces.

You are preaching to the choir regarding those maths, you fucker. Tongue Tongue hahahahaha


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 11-26-2019

(11-26-2019, 06:45 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(11-26-2019, 02:03 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(11-26-2019, 01:43 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote: [edited out]

Let’s say you have 10k to invest right now. You can join the elite club of wholecoiners and then some. If you dca and spread it out over the next 6 months, you will most likely not be able to join this club. Timestamp this.

Well you are kind of cooperating with the hypothetical at least to provide a lump sum amount and to say what you would do.  My actual hypothetical suggested 1) $12k to be available right now (which happens to be divisible by three for ease of consideration of the plan that I had proposed, which does not need to be repeated) and 2) the existence of a cashflow too that could be allocated to bitcoin that would provide an additional $12k ($6k and $6k) over the next 22 months.  Of course, there can be decisions to front load a bit more, but if you use all of the sum (even $10k that is in your variation of the hypothetical), you have no money left to buy on dips, if there are any... but whatever, your choice to do what you believe is good for yourself both financially and psychologically.

Even though I am quoting this, there is no need to timestamp and blah blah blah attempt to compare dicks on these kinds of matters because what might be prudent for one guy or another is certainly within any guy's discretion to attempt to figure out and that guy should be competing with himself in terms of trying to figure out what is best for him based on his circumstances rather than either dick measuring or retrospectively second guessing himself.  Sure it is great for any guy to learn from his experiences, including learning about what style(s) of investment works for him and given the context of what is going on in the market, too.

(11-26-2019, 02:03 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: Or you can follow the normie advice, put 1% of it in, and never join that club, never even get close, and live life with regrets. Buy bonds and annuities and other stupid shit with the other 99% lol.

Well, we did not really get into the question of whether diversification might be prudent right now, or if a guy already had happened to have been somewhat diversified within the hypothetical, then from where did he get the money that he had available for investing?  I was already assuming some level of diversification that allowed for the allocation of $12k towards BTC, but your response would question that assumption and present some other facts and other possible considerations in which a guy might not already be somewhat diversified, and if he were considering BTC as his only investment or happened to be his starting investment?  

Of course, $10k could represent 1% to 10% of a guy's already existent investments, or it could be like you suggested, that he has no other investments, but somehow all of a sudden has $10k that he would be ready, willing and able to invest into BTC as if that were his total moneys... Interesting twist.

Of course, if $10k were all the money that a guy had for investment purposes in the whole wide-world, then surely that guy would be confronted with thinking about whether it would be prudent for him to diversify somewhat or not, and yeah of course if he is a young buck.. something like early 20s or something like that, then he may feel that he has more freedom to put all investments into one basket such as BTC, and I am not saying that would not be a prudent approach for some guy in his early 20s who happens to have $10k (or $12k) and an extra cashflow of $12k that can be dedicated to BTC over the next 22 months (surely not recommending diversifying into shitcoins, that's for sure... hahahahahahaa)...

Surely, questions about what investments are available to a guy, such as a 401k with matching funds (hardly anyone has those kinds of investment opportunities these days, especially in their early 20s, either, fuck).  

I personally suggest 1% to 10% into bitcoin, so 1% would the minimum of quasi-liquid investment funds get put into bitcoin, of course, if guys are bullish as fuck like you, then they might chose higher allocations, and if $10k is the only fucking investment money that they ever had, then it might be o.k. to go completely into bitcoin with that, as long as their various living expenses, including having an emergency fund are covered, which is already assumed to be the case from the hypotheticals asserted availability of the $10k for investing into bitcoin.

When I first got started into investing into anything (that was in the 80s), I started out with just one asset classes, and built up my asset classes, and surely I had thought that I was balling, but I did end up balling less than I thought that I was  when I go back and review it... But $10k or $12k would have gone a lot further back then, too. Anyhow, like I already mentioned, I would not assume that starting out in one asset would be a bad thing for someone who is just getting started in investing.. so in that regard, we do have to know our audience or the parameters of our hypothetical.

When I first started into bitcoin, I allocated an initial investment amount that would cover 6 months (but yeah of course were then at the top of what was already known to have been a 100x price increase over the previous year), so my considerations at that time was somewhat different from how any guy might choose to allocate today.  I looked back at my records, and it appears that I allocated about 4.5% of my total investments to go into bitcoin over those initial 6 months, so I was kind of balancing my allocations as I went.

Since BTC prices currently are not at the top of an exponential rise but in the midst of about a two year long correction towards to lower part of that price range, then there could be some justification to go deeper balls in.  If we are comparing what seems to be BTC's price performance in the 4-year fractal, our current situation in terms of BTC price location and potential seems to be like in the early 2016 aspect of such fractal pattern which is similar to bouncing around in the $300 to $500 range for that time frame (even though past performance cannot guarantee future results).

So yeah, the considerations now are a bit different than the ones that I had which could potentially justify a bit more front loading now based on being within a decently-sized correction, and any guy should be considering those kinds of matters for himself and concluding for himself..  

Just to finish off my own situation, after I had used my initial allocation over the first six months of my investment.  I see that i reached a bit more than 10% allocation in the next 6 months, and then in the next year, since both BTC prices were down and my cashflow was kind of mediocre, I reached about 13-14% by October 2015 when BTC prices thereafter began to go up exponentially.  So a bit of a weird kind of situation was that for the whole of 2014 and 2015, my networth had not changed very much even though I was reallocating my distribution into bitcoin.  Stranger things have happened, but that is how my situation looks in retrospect.


(11-26-2019, 02:03 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: People need to stop thinking in terms of fiat and in terms of bitcoin.

I don't really like such an expression, because we do live in a fiat dominated world, but I understand what you are saying.  The vast majority of normies still have our incomes, cashflows and expenses in fiat, and surely part of the reason that I got into bitcoin was to diversify out of fiat somewhat, and even though my goal for myself had been to aim for around 10% bitcoin, I overshot my goal, and surely my whole fucking networth has become more lopsided in terms of bitcoin, but that still does not mean that I can completely ignore fiat because I have a decent amount of ongoing cashflow and expenses in fiat...  

(11-26-2019, 02:03 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: There are only 21m bitcoin that will ever exist.

Hey you don't need to argue the bitcoin scarcity, sound money value proposition to me, I am already living it, but I doubt that guys are just going to jump into such perspective, and again would depend upon if he has any already existing investments and does he have any in BTC and where does he start?  I doubt that he would necessarily want to go 100% in unless he has already somehow gotten his toe wet first and even got bitten by the bitcoin bug, first.

(11-26-2019, 02:03 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: Likely ~4m of them are lost forever.
True.

(11-26-2019, 02:03 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: Many of the early adopters hold much more than 1 bitcoin.

Of course, but I think that there have been some attempted studies to show that distribution of wealth is likely getting a bit better in bitcoin, even though there surely are some BIGGER players in terms of how much they hold.  

(11-26-2019, 02:03 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: Therefore having 1 btc puts you in a position that most people will never be able to be in. Less than 10m people in the world will ever have that much (probably way less than that given the early distribution/whales)  and that is only counting humans. Banks, central banks, corporations, etc. will likely own bitcoin too. There are way more fiat millionaires than can ever have a whole bitcoin. We will be using sats as the unit of account in the future, not bitcoins. People don’t understand what a crazy opportunity is right in front of their faces.

You are preaching to the choir regarding those maths, you fucker.   Tongue  Tongue   hahahahaha

I know my friend, I am stating these things for the forum, I know you know these things. We currently live in a fiat world, but I do believe that will change and we will move towards a bitcoin standard as each fiat currency inflates to worthlessness. Saifedean explains this better than I ever could in his infamous “the bitcoin standard” book. Distribution is definitely better in bitcoin and since it can’t be inflated by central bankers, this takes away the ability for those closest to the faucet to never produce any value and just be rent seeking parasites. We are overall on the same team. I’m glad that some boomers really get it, most of your generation does not understand any of this.

Anyways, check out that medium article I posted about the halvings. This retracement is following history, which is bullish for what is to come.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-26-2019

(11-26-2019, 07:15 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(11-26-2019, 06:45 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote: [edited out]

I know my friend, I am stating these things for the forum, I know you know these things.

touché

We are posting in a public thread. That is dee essential truth of the matter.

(11-26-2019, 07:15 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: We currently live in a fiat world, but I do believe that will change and we will move towards a bitcoin standard as each fiat currency inflates to worthlessness. Saifedean explains this better than I ever could in his infamous “the bitcoin standard” book.

I am in agreement, but still only about 1% of the world's population, if that, have any kind of stake in bitcoin, and even those who do have a stake in bitcoin, don't have very much. We both know these kinds of facts, and so each of us is likely to benefit from these kinds of dynamics. Others will have to either get on board or not, and surely some are going to figure it out much sooner than others.

I sometimes have some conversations in the real world with people who seem to be on the fence or interested in the topic of bitcoin or whatever for a while, and then when they start to argue with me or even start to send some kinds of suggestions that I am trying to evangelize them into bitcoin, I will tell them that I don't give any shits whether they get into bitcoin or not. Bitcoin is likely going to the moon whether they are on board or not. Still usually does not cause them to do anything much beyond change the subject because they are not that motivated, yet.... hahahahaha

(11-26-2019, 07:15 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: Distribution is definitely better in bitcoin and since it can’t be inflated by central bankers, this takes away the ability for those closest to the faucet to never produce any value and just be rent seeking parasites.

Yes. Bitcoin does not have such Cantillon effect because there is no abuse of power going on, and even if miners were hypothetically to have some kind of advantage, who fucking cares? There are a known quantity of bitcoin, and anyone can easily buy them on the open market. Sure, some countries have fewer on boarding avenues, but people can figure out ways to get bitcoins if they are interested in it, especially the lacking of motivation pre- coiners with whom I speak with. They have options to get coins, but they chose not to.

(11-26-2019, 07:15 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: We are overall on the same team.

Of course, team bitcoin peeps do not agree on everything and they may even be quite disparate in their thinking. As long as they are not pumping some shitcoin, I consider them to be on the same team, and it is possible that some shitcoiners are merely pre bitcoiners, too... possible, possible.


(11-26-2019, 07:15 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: I’m glad that some boomers really get it,

I am not really a boomer, because I think that the cut off was like 1965.. but sure I am close to that. There are a quite a few boomers who were part of the cyperpunk movement, so you cannot really write them off. Of course, the timeline considerations are going to cause some folks to consider these matters differently, and I don't really have the greatest arguments to push some of my older relatives who are in their 60s or 70s, and part of the potential problem is timeline issues. Some of them already consider themselves to be in their investment liquidation phase of life rather than accumulation or maintenance. Of course, even though I am not quite a boomer and I am a bit away from my sixties, I do plan to start some kind of mini-liquidation phase in my bitcoin before I even hit my 60s, so in that regard, I am considering beginning an ongoing withdrawal of about 1% of BTC value per quarter for the rest of my life, however, long that is, and of course, if I see some health issues or something like that, then I will increase the amount.. but anyhow, I am really anticipating getting into some such liquidation phase within less than 5 years - and so I can kind of relate to some new investment reluctancies of people who are already in a liquidation phase and they are already considering their investments to have already largely served their purpose.. which has caused them to get to the stage that they are at.. which is not a stage of taking on new investments which is new risk and new uncertainties when they already got x, they don't necessarily risk x.

(11-26-2019, 07:15 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: most of your generation does not understand any of this.

I really have my doubts about if it is a generational thing, because sound money is not really a technological thing, even though bitcoin did solve the byzantine general's problem through technology and proof of work which causes bitcoin to be way the fuck better than gold, and that is the part that people of many generations have difficulties understanding how something digital can actually be better than something shiny an nice to look at. hahahaha


(11-26-2019, 07:15 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: Anyways, check out that medium article I posted about the halvings.


I am almost positive that I already posted that article in this thread earlier. I recognize the pretty charts contained therein, that had motivated me to post it earlier.


(11-26-2019, 07:15 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: This retracement is following history, which is bullish for what is to come.

Retracements are part of the deal in bitcoin, and we are currently back around the area of the four year fractal pattern depending on what version of the overlay of the fractal pattern you believe is most accurate, and surely there was some sense that the spurting up to $13,880 had gotten us way in front of the fractal pattern, a kind of front running of the pattern, which some folks still consider to be a strong possibility. I don't have much conviction either way whether we front load or go on schedule or get delayed. All I know is that there is going to be ongoing pressures for the price to go up, but there are also going to be bearwhales who are trying to push the price down for as far as they can and for as long as they can, so I cannot really predetermine which one will be successful for longer, and sure some people want to project. I like to be conservative because in the end I am more likely to be satisfied way beyond my expectations, and in the meantime, I still have to figure out ways to spend the excess money, which I really don't believe is a bad problem to have.

By the way, I have had some peeps respond to my various exaggerated richness posts that I have made who have suggestions regarding various ways that I could perhaps spend my excessive monies, and anyone thinking about soliciting me in that direction can fuck off ahead of time, because I don't really need help figuring out how to spend excessive monies, even though I say that I have such a "problem" and I anticipate the "problem" to get worse. hahahahaha


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - New Ice Age - 11-26-2019

(11-26-2019, 07:15 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: I know my friend, I am stating these things for the forum, I know you know these things. We currently live in a fiat world, but I do believe that will change and we will move towards a bitcoin standard as each fiat currency inflates to worthlessness. Saifedean explains this better than I ever could in his infamous “the bitcoin standard” book. Distribution is definitely better in bitcoin and since it can’t be inflated by central bankers, this takes away the ability for those closest to the faucet to never produce any value and just be rent seeking parasites. We are overall on the same team. I’m glad that some boomers really get it, most of your generation does not understand any of this.

Anyways, check out that medium article I posted about the halvings. This retracement is following history, which is bullish for what is to come.

Please, let's be realistic. BTC definitely has potential to make some very good profits (still). But the idea that BTC will become some kind of standard is ridiculous. BTC will stay an investment & speculation vehicle, similar like gold. Several reasons for that, one big one is the volatility. But I'm sure you know those arguments. 

As for the price of BTC, some people envision a future where 1 BTC will be like 100k or something like that. I mean, no one can tell what will happen it 30 years. So you cannot rule it out. But it seems unlikely. Yes, there has been extremely large growth in the last 10 years in terms of price. But who says that this development will continue in the same manner in the future. It's not a given. If you look at the price of gold in the last 50 years, there have been large fluctuations in price, but overall it's not a steady growth. If you start from a very low level, as BTC has, it's not so hard to make the first 100x or 1000x as BTC rises from being unknown to an early adopter thing. But crossing over to the mainstream is different. It's a different type of people with a different mindset. It can happen, but it's definitely not a given.