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The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Printable Version

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RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-22-2019

(11-22-2019, 03:12 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(11-22-2019, 02:45 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(11-21-2019, 09:42 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: What are the experts saying was the cause of the dip? China fud?

I have not seen anything, yet.  I had heard about a mining death spiral, but that surely seems to be grasping at straws.

Seems to be holding at least.

Yep.  I guess there tend to be a few questions when we are cascading down with intermittent periods of consolidation about whether the bottom has been reached, and sometimes people suggest that we take the stairs up and the elevator down, yet this is bitcoinlandia, and the price movements can play out in all kinds of ways, and surely surprise us from time to time.

An interesting recent feature in bitcoin price dynamics is our October 25 price rise from $7,300 to $10,300 that happened in about 12 hours (that is about 42% up), but then it took nearly 26 days until November 21 (yesterday) to get back down to $7,300 and then we got our further correction (so far) that has taken us down to $6,785, so far.  Whoaza, whoaza... is it done correcting?

Fuck.

I have little to no clue about when the correction is over or how much of a correction we are going to continue to get, and yeah, it is not the greatest feeling in the world to be going through ongoing correction that remains unclear regarding when it is going to stop, and frequently I don't begin to feel comfortable that our bottom for that particular cycle is "in" until we reach around 10% recovery from that local bottom.... but just looking at our recent history, as I outlined above, we had a 42% recovery or bounce that ended up getting completely eaten away (and moreso), and currently we are in a bit of a state of uncertainty regarding whether the bottom is now "in" or is there some ability to achieve some lower number.

I saw a post on another thread from a fairly astute BTC chart watcher in the past day or so that asserted that we 
need to stay in an "area of pain" for at least 5 days before we can be ready to recover, and so that seems logical that the powers that be in bitcoin bearwhale-landia are going  to want to attempt to exert as much down pressure as they can and continue to attempt to exert such downward BTC price pressures until they are relatively certain that they have squeezed as many weak hands as they are able to squeeze, and surely in the mean time (referring to the 5 days of holding the down), the leveraged shorts are going to be building up in order to create a decent amount of fuel for a subsequent movement up.. and to beat up the smaller player betters on the way down and to beat up some of those same kinds of folks on the way up.

Great... great... great.

All fun and games as long as you don't end up getting an eye poked out...  Smile Smile Tongue


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 11-22-2019

(11-22-2019, 06:41 AM)SC87 Wrote: JJG it was a joke, everyone knows comments like that get you all riled up.

What is the easiest/best android wallet to use? I need to send someone a small amount and they have no experience with BTC.


Green wallet.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-22-2019

Even according to the below chart, we are not really out of our schedule for UP.  The link shows an earlier variation  that kind of anticipated our current dip.  Of course, if we end up dipping 50% more from here or some other craziness like that, then the pattern might become a bit screwed up and even possibly change the momentum or delay what seems to be an almost inevitable UP.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg53148252#msg53148252

[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FgjAX1jB.j...NkKEa76Ykg]


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-22-2019

Perhaps a lot of us feel like this guy?

[Image: EJ_IRZ7WwAAMAsZ?format=jpg&name=small]

https://twitter.com/CryptoBull/status/1197896238001205250

Sometimes hope and reality, though, can be two separate things.   Sad


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-23-2019

(11-22-2019, 01:31 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: I like this little reminder about being careful when you expect more down, and such additional down might not happen.


https://twitter.com/alistairmilne/status/1197784777480458240?s=20


Quote:

>>>>

[Image: QTBoHshx_bigger.jpg]


[/url]Alistair Milne
@alistairmilne


March 2017, an investor hears that 'China bans Bitcoin' and sends me a concerned email. Price drops to ~$900

... despite my advice that selling based on news is usually a bad idea, he decided to sell everything.

To my knowledge, he has never re-invested.<<<<<<<<



Here's an article to supplement the above earlier posts about shanghai and binance, and now it appears that China bans bitcoin.... hehehehehe  Amazing shit.


https://uk.reuters.com/article/china-blockchain-shanghai/pboc-shanghai-hq-says-to-crack-down-on-cryptocurrency-trading-idUKB9N251022


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 11-23-2019

(11-22-2019, 10:10 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: Even according to the below chart, we are not really out of our schedule for UP.  The link shows an earlier variation  that kind of anticipated our current dip.  Of course, if we end up dipping 50% more from here or some other craziness like that, then the pattern might become a bit screwed up and even possibly change the momentum or delay what seems to be an almost inevitable UP.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg53148252#msg53148252

[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FgjAX1jB.j...NkKEa76Ykg]

planb's stock to flow is still on target. the Mayer multiplier is high too. I am feeling a rise soon.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-23-2019

(11-23-2019, 05:02 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(11-22-2019, 10:10 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: Even according to the below chart, we are not really out of our schedule for UP.  The link shows an earlier variation  that kind of anticipated our current dip.  Of course, if we end up dipping 50% more from here or some other craziness like that, then the pattern might become a bit screwed up and even possibly change the momentum or delay what seems to be an almost inevitable UP.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg53148252#msg53148252

[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FgjAX1jB.j...NkKEa76Ykg]

planb's stock to flow is still on target. the Mayer multiplier is high too. I am feeling a rise soon.

Don't mean to be a fuddy duddy, but define "soon".

You mean two weeks?  five days? 24 hours?   Tongue


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 11-23-2019

(11-23-2019, 05:09 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(11-23-2019, 05:02 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(11-22-2019, 10:10 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: Even according to the below chart, we are not really out of our schedule for UP.  The link shows an earlier variation  that kind of anticipated our current dip.  Of course, if we end up dipping 50% more from here or some other craziness like that, then the pattern might become a bit screwed up and even possibly change the momentum or delay what seems to be an almost inevitable UP.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg53148252#msg53148252

[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FgjAX1jB.j...NkKEa76Ykg]

planb's stock to flow is still on target. the Mayer multiplier is high too. I am feeling a rise soon.

Don't mean to be a fuddy duddy, but define "soon".

You mean two weeks?  five days? 24 hours?   Tongue

Within a week. The bears are getting too confident. Time for some shorts to get rekt again.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - SpecialEd - 11-24-2019

Tempted to buy a bunch.

But it could tank to $3k lol. You just never know with this coin.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-24-2019

(11-24-2019, 02:33 AM)SpecialEd Wrote: Tempted to buy a bunch.

But it could tank to $3k lol. You just never know with this coin.

You better wait, then.  At least wait until sub $5k.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 11-24-2019

3k lol k bro sure thing.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - SpecialEd - 11-24-2019

You HODLers were saying the same thing at $13k lol.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-24-2019

(11-24-2019, 08:11 AM)SpecialEd Wrote: You HODLers were saying the same thing at $13k lol.

When you have a long term BTC buy and accumulatl and HODL strategy, you don't fuck around and get distracted by short-term BTC price noise like dee weak hands tend to do.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 11-24-2019

(11-24-2019, 08:11 AM)SpecialEd Wrote: You HODLers were saying the same thing at $13k lol.

That’s probably when you’ll buy in lol.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - New Ice Age - 11-24-2019

Cost-averaging works pretty well with stocks, but with BTC you do need to time your buys. BTC is so volatile, it makes a huge difference when you buy. There are really big spikes, but BTC doesn't stay at the high levels for long, see 19k and 14k. There's always a very strong pullback. It would be stupid to cost-average on those spikes. Now, however, it does make sense to cost-average on the way down.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 11-24-2019

DCA is the least risky way to buy because of the extreme volatility. It also has a clear less risk reward profile of trying to time the bottoms. This is a great entry point if you are waiting around on the sidelines. Do your own research, trust your own instincts. No one else is accountable for your decisions.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-24-2019

(11-24-2019, 06:45 PM)New Ice Age Wrote: Cost-averaging works pretty well with stocks, but with BTC you do need to time your buys.

Your theory seems a bit off. Of course, you can profit if you can predict that BTC prices are going down, but the problem is that you really cannot predict, and that is one of the major points about employing DCA.

I believe that with DCA, the main thing is that the price of the asset ultimately needs to go above your average buy price, which so far tends to be only a couple of years with bitcoin to be able to accomplish such with a DCA approach. Of course, historical price performance is no guarantee of future results, but as long as you have confidence in the longer term performance of an asset, then you will do fine with DCA even though the real test ends up being if the actual price of the asset ends up going up above your average cost per BTC, which should go down over time, if the price is going down, right?

Another thing about BTC, and I have posted such phenomenon previously, is that there are a relatively small number of days in any particular year that you need to be in bitcoin in order to really have overall profits, so if you dick around too much with trying to time when you are in, then you are quite likely to mess up a decent number of those days and accordingly screw up your overall profit performance for the year.

(11-24-2019, 06:45 PM)New Ice Age Wrote: BTC is so volatile, it makes a huge difference when you buy.

Yeah, it is volatile to both upside and the downside, and on the larger scale, so far, it has been way the fuck more volatile to the upside than to the downside, so there is that actual set of historical BTC price performance facts.

(11-24-2019, 06:45 PM)New Ice Age Wrote: There are really big spikes, but BTC doesn't stay at the high levels for long, see 19k and 14k.

So, are you therefore trying to suggest that guys should be attempting to time the upside, when the exact opposite seems to be the more profitable longer term scenario with BTC (at least so far).

We have a whole shitload of examples of people in BTC selling way too much, way too soon, and then becoming butthurt, so there is that, too.

(11-24-2019, 06:45 PM)New Ice Age Wrote: There's always a very strong pullback.

Why are you emphasizing pullback when we are at the likely bottom of a correction cycle? Of course, if BTC prices are going up a lot, then maybe it might be good to suggest to shave a little bit off, but these seem way the fuck more likely to be the kinds of times that guys should be considering to be shaving a little bit on rather than off.

(11-24-2019, 06:45 PM)New Ice Age Wrote: It would be stupid to cost-average on those spikes.

Perhaps. There are ways that you can just continue to buy no matter the price, but surely there could be decisions to either buy less, or to not buy or to sell a bit if the BTC price is really ramping upwardly out of control, but currently we are not in that situation... we are in the opposite situation. So seems a bit strange that you are talking about the scenario that currently we are not in. Again, what's your point?

(11-24-2019, 06:45 PM)New Ice Age Wrote: Now, however, it does make sense to cost-average on the way down.

That makes no sense? What BTC price are you anticipating? What are the odds that BTC will reach such anticipated price? Are you suggesting to play around with all or nothing strategies or some kind of incrementalism? In other words, are we talking about guys who currently have no coins at all and they are trying to figure out when to get in or are we talking about guys who have achieved their maintenance amount of bitcoin a long time ago or guys who are getting close to reaching their maintenance level? There should also be some guys who may have already sold BTC all the way up to $13,880 during the April/May/June rise to that level or guys that sold a decent amount of BTC on the October 25 rise up to $10,300, so for those guys they are merely using proceeds from their earlier sales to buy back so there is not much difference or skin off their back if they buy at $7k or at $6k or $5k, and maybe they are already prepared to buy at the various downward price points, if they were to happen, but might not want to have not bought at these prices because they have too much of an unwarranted hard-on waiting for some lower BTC price point that might not happen. Likely you should explain yourself a bit, New Ice Age, because you are talking quite a bit of non-specifics, which implied practices would have gotten guys into a lot of trouble on a number of occasions if they had gotten scared based on your vaguenesses.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - New Ice Age - 11-24-2019

Not sure what exactly is unclear in my post. Now BTC is dropping strongly, and it has already corrected 50% from the high 14k. That's why now is the time to DCA into the drop. Who knows how far it will drop, it could be the bottom already, or it could go down to 4k. No one knows. But since there has been already a strong correction and there's still a downwards movement it's the right time to DCA into it now.  

Previously, if you were really convinced that long term BTC will grow, it would have been logical to go into it with a large amount at 3k, and DCA into it on the way up. Maybe until 6k, 7k, or 8k, and after that better stop with the DCA. Sure it could have gone up to 20k again, but even if that had happened, it would not have stayed there very long anyway.   

So what I'm saying is, you cannot time the top and the bottom, but you can still time the window when you DCA into it.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-25-2019

(11-24-2019, 09:07 PM)New Ice Age Wrote: Not sure what exactly is unclear in my post. Now BTC is dropping strongly, and it has already corrected 50% from the high 14k. That's why now is the time to DCA into the drop. Who knows how far it will drop, it could be the bottom already, or it could go down to 4k. No one knows. But since there has been already a strong correction and there's still a downwards movement it's the right time to DCA into it now.  

Previously, if you were really convinced that long term BTC will grow, it would have been logical to go into it with a large amount at 3k, and DCA into it on the way up. Maybe until 6k, 7k, or 8k, and after that better stop with the DCA. Sure it could have gone up to 20k again, but even if that had happened, it would not have stayed there very long anyway.   

So what I'm saying is, you cannot time the top and the bottom, but you can still time the window when you DCA into it.

Ok.  Thanks for the clarification, NIA.... 

I think that I was misreading you a bit about what you were suggesting to do, and even though I don't necessarily agree with the idea of making large changes to your DCA strategy, and that would be even more true for guys who have not even established any BTC position yet (and that seems to be the part of your recommendation(s) that confused me most about what you were suggesting regarding adjusting a DCA strategy based on BIG moves in the BTC price), I agree that it can make some sense to tweak DCA strategy a bit during these BIG moves times, especially if guys have already at least established some stake in BTC.

Otherwise, I stick by my earlier assertion that guys need to adjust their strategy to their own situation including figuring out what position in BTC they are seeking to achieve and getting the initial stake could take a bit of time.  For me it took about a year to get my initial stake before I transitioned into a strategy that was more heavily emphasizing maintenance rather than accumulation, so it is likely best not to get too particular about a guy's DCA strategy, but maybe when there are BIG moves in price, then adjustments can be made, including in the direction that you are suggesting.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - SC87 - 11-25-2019

Too late to Tether? $6636 as I write this.