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The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Printable Version

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RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-20-2019

(11-20-2019, 03:38 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(11-20-2019, 03:05 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote: This here website shows a lot of interesting live measures of the bitcoin network and what is going on.

https://bytetree.com/bitcoin

It was linked by dkbit98 in the bitcoin velocity thread on bitcointalk.org.

Here's a snapshot that he provided:

[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FZ7Ojmrn.p...WTRBDF-PVg]

When moon?

That is a very good (insightful) question.

I would estimate anywhere between the next 9 months and 24 months, give or take 4 months.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-20-2019

(11-20-2019, 06:09 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(11-20-2019, 03:38 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(11-20-2019, 03:05 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote: This here website shows a lot of interesting live measures of the bitcoin network and what is going on.

https://bytetree.com/bitcoin

It was linked by dkbit98 in the bitcoin velocity thread on bitcointalk.org.

Here's a snapshot that he provided:

[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FZ7Ojmrn.p...WTRBDF-PVg]

When moon?

That is a very good (insightful) question.

I would estimate anywhere between the next 9 months and 24 months, give or take 4 months.

While we are waiting for BTC's price to go up (aka moon), in the meantime, we can play some multiplayer first person shooter games on lightning network that involves money, too, apparently.

I have not attempted to explore in detail this particular kind of new announced use of lightning network, but it does seem to demonstrate a kind of micro-transaction experiment.  

Disclosure against interest:  I am too much of an addict when it comes to games, so maybe would not be good for my health to even explore too much beyond merely sharing the link or discussing the idea rather than actually attempting to partake in it. 

(Click on this twitter link in order to actually see a demonstration of what the interface of the game actually looks like in motion.)

[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FZejPN5Z.p...ka4N6JRqIA]


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-20-2019

Here's another nice little tweet that show an overlay of the 2018/2019 BTC correction and early stages of recovery as compared with the 2014/2015/2016 BTC correction and recovery, and also showing that we are a bit ahead of schedule as compared to the recovery from the earlier correction.


https://twitter.com/jamesviggy/status/1196981327616069632

[Image: EJyIK07U0AA0K_q?format=png&name=small]

Some interesting points within the tweet thread too, such as:

Quote:  

>>>>
James Viggiano


@jamesviggy
· Jun 20


#Bitcoin bear market comparisons $btc

2013 (blue line): 411 day bear market, -83.24% max drawdown. 1200 days to reach all time high. X marks the halving.

2017 (red line):  364 day bear market, -83.40% max drawdown. Much faster and stronger recovery. Early pricing of halving?<<<<<



RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 11-20-2019

I hope moon soon, I am running out of money to stack sats lol. Please orange coin go up.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-20-2019

(11-20-2019, 08:18 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: I hope moon soon, I am running out of money to stack sats lol. Please orange coin go up.

I believe that you are being a little bit facetious because most of us should have some kind of cashflow that is coming in on a regular basis, even if such cashflow might either be uncertain or even if there is some periods in which such ongoing cashflow peaks or wanes.

Given that situations of guys are different, especially based on when they got into BTC, and then if they feel comfortable with the amount of BTC that they have acquired in terms of percentage of their portfolio or however else they are attempting to measure where they are at in terms of the accumulation, maintenance or liquidation phases.

I have become somewhat torn about the amount of new money that I put into BTC, and maybe experiencing a exponential price explosion had caused some incentive for the money to either flow in the other direction, such as drawing money out of BTC or less justification to put more money into BTC, since the value of the increase would not seem to be as much of a pay off as would be measuring the value that had already been put in, including its appreciation from how much had been put in in comparison to its increase in value.

The question of how to spend new money versus buying on dips remain two separate issues for me, because I do buy back on an ongoing basis when BTC prices dip, it is just a matter, for me, about whether there is any need to put new money in.

So even when BTC's prices dropped down 85%, there still could have been anywhere between 3x and 20x appreciation in the dollar value of the BTC holdings for any guy who had gotten into BTC prior to April 2017, and in some sense I am assuming a fact set for guys like myself that had allowed for guys to largely have had reached their accumulation targets (in terms of BTC percentages of their total investments) before April 2017.

Of course, not all guys would have reached their BTC accumulation targets by April 2017, and I am not clear about where you are at on such accumulation goals, swordfish. We know that some guys only got started investing in BTC after April 2017 when they heard about the BIG ass price movements of that latest wave that was really starting to get attention in October 2017 and thereafter, and maybe such attention to BTC price movements started to wane in mid-2018 when the BTC price trend (and momentum) became more questionable.

Anyhow, sometimes if more money is coming into a guys circumstances, the guy might go through some kinds internal deliberations about whether new money should go into BTC or should go somewhere else or should just be spent on nice things, whether hookers (again not really serious about the hookers thing, it is just an expression in BTClandia) and blow or something else, especially if the guy in question had still largely already reached his BTC accumulation goals.

Of course, it is a different story, if the guy in question had not reached his BTC accumulation goals, then of course, the best practice would be just to keep on dollar cost average buying into BTC and buying on dips until such BTC accumulation goals have been reached.. and/or slightly exceeded. I never really felt comfortable until my BTC accumulation goals had been exceeded. For some reason, I had always felt a need to have a little extra BTC in terms of my percentage goals as a kind of cushion for my own way of thinking about the matter and how I was going to attempt to play the whole BTC accumulation strategizing matter.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 11-20-2019

(11-20-2019, 05:28 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(11-20-2019, 08:18 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: I hope moon soon, I am running out of money to stack sats lol. Please orange coin go up.

I believe that you are being a little bit facetious because most of us should have some kind of cashflow that is coming in on a regular basis, even if such cashflow might either be uncertain or even if there is some periods in which such ongoing cashflow peaks or wanes.

Given that situations of guys are different, especially based on when they got into BTC, and then if they feel comfortable with the amount of BTC that they have acquired in terms of percentage of their portfolio or however else they are attempting to measure where they are at in terms of the accumulation, maintenance or liquidation phases.

I have become somewhat torn about the amount of new money that I put into BTC, and maybe experiencing a exponential price explosion had caused some incentive for the money to either flow in the other direction, such as drawing money out of BTC or less justification to put more money into BTC, since the value of the increase would not seem to be as much of a pay off as would be measuring the value that had already been put in, including its appreciation from how much had been put in in comparison to its increase in value.

The question of how to spend new money versus buying on dips remain two separate issues for me, because I do buy back on an ongoing basis when BTC prices dip, it is just a matter, for me, about whether there is any need to put new money in.

So even when BTC's prices dropped down 85%, there still could have been anywhere between 3x and 20x appreciation in the dollar value of the BTC holdings for any guy who had gotten into BTC prior to April 2017, and in some sense I am assuming a fact set for guys like myself that had allowed for guys to largely have had reached their accumulation targets (in terms of BTC percentages of their total investments) before April 2017.  

Of course, not all guys would have reached their BTC accumulation targets by April 2017, and I am not clear about where you are at on such accumulation goals, swordfish.  We know that some guys only got started investing in BTC after April 2017 when they heard about the BIG ass price movements of that latest wave that was really starting to get attention in October 2017 and thereafter, and maybe such attention to BTC price movements started to wane in mid-2018 when the BTC price trend (and momentum) became more questionable.

Anyhow, sometimes if more money is coming into a guys circumstances, the guy might go through some kinds internal deliberations about whether new money should go into BTC or should go somewhere else or should just be spent on nice things, whether hookers (again not really serious about the hookers thing, it is just an expression in BTClandia) and blow or something else, especially if the guy in question had still largely already reached his BTC accumulation goals.

Of course, it is a different story, if the guy in question had not reached his BTC accumulation goals, then of course, the best practice would be just to keep on dollar cost average buying into BTC and buying on dips until such BTC accumulation goals have been reached.. and/or slightly exceeded.  I never really felt comfortable until my  BTC accumulation goals had been exceeded.  For some reason, I had always felt a need to have a little extra BTC in terms of my percentage goals as a kind of cushion for my own way of thinking about the matter and how I was going to attempt to play the whole BTC accumulation strategizing matter.

Bought the top, sold the bottom. That’s the right way to do this right

https://fortune.com/2019/11/20/paypal-ceo-dan-schulman-libra/amp/

PayPal ceo only holds bitcoin. Must know something that I don’t.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-20-2019

(11-20-2019, 06:29 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(11-20-2019, 05:28 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: [edited out]

Bought the top, sold the bottom. That’s the right way to do this right

Hopefully not. That seems to be a common pattern, yet personally, I believe that there are systems that guys can create to lock in profits and to ensure that they are always buying low and selling high. Of course, no system is fool proof or necessarily as easy to employ as it is in theory, but I would think that guys should be able to figure out such ways to make sure that they are buying low and selling high, especially in bitcoin, as long as they have a long enough timeline, patience and don't allow emotions to get into the matter which would include attempting to minimize any gambling tendencies that a guy has, except for the gambling that in the long run, bitcoin is a good bet and largely it will have a higher price 3.5 years from now as compared with its current price (and for the most part that minimum of at least a 3.5 year timeline should be, in theory, applicable at any time).


(11-20-2019, 06:29 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: https://fortune.com/2019/11/20/paypal-ceo-dan-schulman-libra/amp/

PayPal ceo only holds bitcoin. Must know something that I don’t.

I like that article. I think that bitcoin has become the paypal that paypal wished that it could have been (paypal had problems of centralization that caused it to have to conform with governmental wishes).

Furthermore, it seems that the article seems to demonstrate that more and more quasi-mainstream folks that are involved in aspects of quasi-traditional financial institutions are publicly willing to admit that they have some bitcoin holdings, and crazy about the "only" part which actually shows him to be smarter than a shitcoiner... hahahahaha Wink


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-21-2019

Here's another pessimistic doom and gloom article that is based on the "confluence detector" that is suggesting that bitcoin is struggling for $9k.


https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-prediction-why-btc-usds-9-000-target-is-a-pipedream-confluence-detector-201911180522

[Image: NOV18-BTC%20CON-637096512228871619.png]


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-21-2019

Here's a nice article and a tweet showing a historical cycle and also asserting that most (61%) HODLers could currently sell their BTC at a profit, if they were to want to.

https://bitcoinist.com/hodling-pays-61-of-bitcoin-owners-could-sell-at-profit/


https://twitter.com/PositiveCrypto/status/1196784986013216768

[Image: EJvVmYoX0AAcKHW?format=jpg&name=small]


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - SpecialEd - 11-21-2019

Me thinks JJG is not in that 61% lol


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - SC87 - 11-21-2019

JJG's average is $18k


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 11-21-2019

What are the experts saying was the cause of the dip? China fud?


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-22-2019

(11-21-2019, 08:05 PM)SpecialEd Wrote: Me thinks JJG is not in that 61% lol

You are a fantasy land speculating diptwat.  I have largely already covered this type of topic concerning myself, and seems to show that you have a hard time actually posting on-topic without getting diverted into quasi-irrelevant personal matters.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-22-2019

(11-21-2019, 09:06 PM)SC87 Wrote: JJG's average is $18k

And, I thought that you were smarter than Special Ed.  Go figure?

You should actually realize that anyone who is half way intelligent should not have a BTC average anywhere close to that price (which happens to be close to the top of the last cycle).

Such proclamations of supposed people with average buy prices close to the top kind of reminds me of the fictional person who supposedly bought at the top around two years earlier, and had been holding ever since and had not figured out some kind of a better BTC investment strategy.

To the extent that those hypothetical buy at the top people actually exist, they do not deserve much sympathy partly because there is surely a large amount of lacking of insight if you were to buy BTC at a price that is nearly 100x higher than it had been at the bottom of the cycle, and if you looked at the BTC price charts, you could have seen the move up of about 100x in slightly more than 2 years time, and also should have drawn some reasonable inferences from that.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-22-2019

(11-21-2019, 09:42 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: What are the experts saying was the cause of the dip? China fud?

I have not seen anything, yet.  I had heard about a mining death spiral, but that surely seems to be grasping at straws.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 11-22-2019

(11-22-2019, 02:45 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(11-21-2019, 09:42 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: What are the experts saying was the cause of the dip? China fud?

I have not seen anything, yet.  I had heard about a mining death spiral, but that surely seems to be grasping at straws.

Seems to be holding at least.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - SC87 - 11-22-2019

JJG it was a joke, everyone knows comments like that get you all riled up.

What is the easiest/best android wallet to use? I need to send someone a small amount and they have no experience with BTC.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-22-2019

(11-22-2019, 02:45 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(11-21-2019, 09:42 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote: What are the experts saying was the cause of the dip? China fud?

I have not seen anything, yet.  I had heard about a mining death spiral, but that surely seems to be grasping at straws.

Here's a supplement to my earlier response.

I actually do not believe that the BTC market gives any shits about China raiding one of Binances offices in Shanghai in order to purportedly shut it down, but it is still interesting an interesting thing that happened, according to this article.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/markets-crash-after-reports-that-binances-shangai-office-closed-in-crypto-crackdown


Edit:
Woops... sorry... looks like it was "fake news"   I got too excited to attempt to report something potentially relevant, and Binance is saying that they don't even have such an office in Shanghai... So there is that..

https://cointelegraph.com/news/binance-denies-police-raids-very-existence-of-shanghai-offices




RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-22-2019

Maybe this upcoming year we will find out how the supposed BIG Bitcoin mining operation in Texas is performing?

According to the article it is planned to be in full-production by the end of the year, but will begin to produce in the 1st quarter of the year.

We will see.  We will see.

https://www.coindesk.com/1-gigawatt-bitcoin-mine-under-construction-in-texas-would-dwarf-bitmains#/


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 11-22-2019

I like this little reminder about being careful when you expect more down, and such additional down might not happen.


https://twitter.com/alistairmilne/status/1197784777480458240?s=20


Quote:

>>>>

[Image: QTBoHshx_bigger.jpg]


[url=https://twitter.com/alistairmilne][/url]Alistair Milne
@alistairmilne


March 2017, an investor hears that 'China bans Bitcoin' and sends me a concerned email. Price drops to ~$900

... despite my advice that selling based on news is usually a bad idea, he decided to sell everything.

To my knowledge, he has never re-invested.<<<<<<<<