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RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Obermarschall - 09-28-2019

I know but honestly I kinda like that the sentiment gets very negative and that even some fierce Bitcoin hodlers and maximalists are little bit afraid. Good moment to buy some more BTC. I just hope that it stays a little bit around that area so I can buy some more.
But mannnnnn the Altcoins are really gonna vanish. I think besides of LINK and some other alts, most were totally destroyed and are continuing their decline. It will be very interesting.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 09-28-2019

(09-28-2019, 11:01 AM)Obermarschall Wrote: I know but honestly I kinda like that the sentiment gets very negative and that even some fierce Bitcoin hodlers and maximalists are little bit afraid.

Of course, a vast majority of bitcoin holders get a bit nervous when the BTC price corrects in large kind of ways, and especially when there is some kind of sentiment that the correction should have been over because it was sufficient. Nonetheless, none of us can really know for sure when the correction is sufficient because sometimes bearwhales might be able to risk taking a certain loss to push BTC's price down, if they believe that they might be making money in other areas.

I do believe that the amount of time that guys have been in BTC is going to help with the level of fear that they feel, and even the level of equity built up can cause a decent amount of comfort regarding how extreme BTC's price correction is going to be, this time.

Let's say, for example, this price correction goes on for a year or two, then sometimes there might be some need to take some value out of BTC to cover expenses or something like that, and the deferral of taking out the value cannot really be pushed any longer. So, even if a long term BTC HODLer has built up a lot of equity in BTC, It would have felt a whole lot better to have cashed out a little bit at $13k rather than at $6k - hypothesizing a situation that BTC prices go back down to $6k. So, sometimes those kinds of calculations might cause some frustration with some guys who might have to cash out some amount of BTC at 5x profits rather than 10x profits... just because they might not have enough liquidity in other areas to cover whatever their spending might require.. and yeah it could be a risk also to keep holding at $6k if you are not sure whether the price might not even get worse.

I actually made that kind of a mistake in November 2018. In about February/March 2018, I was engaging in a project in which I knew that I was going to incur a lot of expenses coming later in the year. Based on the progress of the project, I could NOT exactly project when the bills would come due, and I figured some bills would trickle in between about September 2018 and about March or April 2019. So I had some cash in reserve to be able to attempt to play out the bills coming in. If you recall in early February 2019, BTC price had pretty much dropped down to $6k and then bounced back to $12k or more, and so if you have 6-12 months to plan for cashflow, there may be some consideration that there will be opportunities to cash out some BTC along the way, if needed at decent prices...and maybe worse case scenarios between $6k and $12k (speculation, of course).

Part of my problem came because way more of my anticipated bills came in all at once. Part of the reason was that the actual project had been delayed a bit, but then once it got started, then the expenses, such as services and materials were rolling in really fast because the project was going fast once it got going. There even seemed to have been some cost overruns... Which surely happens with anything that involves a lot of aspects. Anyhow, in early November I was receiving a lot of bills, and after I calculated my cash flow, and the sudden nearly halvening of BTC's price in mid-November 2018 from $6k to nearly $3k, I was forced to cash out a certain amount of my BTC holdings... just to make sure I met my obligations and also to make sure that I was not overextended in terms of the amount of cash that I had on-hand in case BTC prices continued to drop.. In other words, I felt that I needed to maintain a certain amount of cash in hand just in case BTC prices went below $3k.

So in my personal case, I had never really cashed out bitcoin between late 2013 to late 2018. I had been following practices to sell BTC on the way up and use those proceeds to buy back, which was not really any kind of cashing out. However, with all the bills coming in in November 2018, I was faced with the situation in which I felt that it was prudent to cash out about 3% of my BTC holdings. I felt really bad about it because it went contrary to my prior practice which was to buy on the way down and to sell on the way up, and my cash flow was not enough so I had to sell a little bit at a price that I did not really want to sell. I structured my sell orders and I was able to sell that 3%-ish between about $3,800 and $4,200 , mostly in late November. Of course, we know that the BTC price did bounce around in the $3ks until April 2019, so I was probably able to recover 1/3 of the amount that I had sold, but I still have felt bad about how I ended up playing that situation (and kind of being forced into a situation). Surely, I would have felt worse the higher percentage of my BTC holdings that I would have ended up having to cash out, based on my own accumulation goals and all of that.


(09-28-2019, 11:01 AM)Obermarschall Wrote: Good moment to buy some more BTC.
I think that is the best way to think about the matter, and even if you do not have enough cashflow to actually buy BTC at least to HODL through such a period, and the longer that the period lasts, the more likely cashflow could come in that could be dedicated to buying BTC, even if it is only a small amount (such as $20).

Actually one more little story. In late 2014, BTC prices dropped down to lower $300s, and then in early 2015, BTC prices had some dips below $200, and for some reason simultaneously, I had a business partner who had kind of gone rogue on me at the same time (early 2015). The business was not related to bitcoin, and I believe that the going rogue did not have anything to do with bitcoin, but nonetheless, the situation simultaneously screwed up my cashflow situation for a good 6 months in early 2015 - and probably even further into the future than that (if I really get introspective about that whole situation).

So, even though BTC prices dropped into the $200s, the uncertainties of my then situation had not really allowed me to buy any BTC at the best prices. Of course, I was also nervous about BTC during that time, but there were several months in which I could not buy any BTC, even though I had been routinely buying BTC through most of 2014. Once my cash flow started to become somewhat back to "regular" and out of emergency status, I was able to continue to buy BTC, but I would only buy like $5 to $100 here and there as certain money would come in that would allow me to allocate those extra inflow of funds towards BTC. There were a few people suggesting that I should sell some of my BTC, asserting that BTC was never going back above $300 again, blah blah blah. But I mostly held and through 2015, just bought a little bit of BTC when and where I felt sufficiently comfortable that I could use that extra money towards BTC.

So, my point that is even if the situation might seem bad, there can be some longer term benefits to really working through and HODLing at minimum, and making small buys to the extent feasible with the passage of time, especially when the BTC price has gone through decently sized corrections.



(09-28-2019, 11:01 AM)Obermarschall Wrote: I just hope that it stays a little bit around that area so I can buy some more.

I understand that if you are in a BTC accumulation mode, then you might feel higher degrees of relish regarding the lower prices than someone who has already largely achieved decently-comfortable levels of accumulation. I personally never really did wish for down direction BTC prices, even from late 2013 to late 2015 when BTC corrected from $1,163 to periods of below $200, but I did feel that the lower prices were opportunities to acquire cheaper coins.. even while feeling uncertain at the same time.

Also, personally, I believe that our current sentiment (and even public perceptions and BTC fundamentals) is no where near as pessimistic as it was in 2015 - including the fact that late 2017 had allowed the playing out of a lot of attempted attacks on bitcoin that came off as sufficient threats to BTC, and the favorable resolution towards BTC had really shown the power of kingdaddy bitcoin. Current FUD attempts or even spins of facts to attempt to denigrate bitcoin do not have as much ability to resonate with folks who are more informed about BTC, and even some recent proof in the market in which BTC pumped 3.5x between April and June (2019, of course) while altcoins largely languished - which can be considered as a kind of purging of the froth of various shitcoins that was not really expected... and such purging of shitcoin froth.. even though a bit ambiguous for a lot of the time, seems to be continuing and ongoing.

(09-28-2019, 11:01 AM)Obermarschall Wrote: But mannnnnn the Altcoins are really gonna vanish.  

I am reluctant to write them off, even though I know that a lot of snot-nosed 14 year olds are still waiting for an alt coin pump, and there might be some overall incentive in the total crypto market (including smart money) to disavow a large number of them from being able to profit off of largely shitty overvaluations and the pumpenings of paper tiger projects.

(09-28-2019, 11:01 AM)Obermarschall Wrote: I think besides of LINK and some other alts, most were totally destroyed and are continuing their decline.

There are always going to be some shitcoins that show a little bit of green, even during a purging of the vast majority of them, but I don't know if the showing of green in some shit coins actually reflects stronger fundamentals in such project rather than the demonstration of hopium for some snot nosed 14 year olds to continue to believe that there is going to be another altcoin season (purportedly like always happens.. yeah right?).

I don't know about your specific name-dropping of LINK, because unless it is somehow weaved into bitcoin, I would consider it to be a shitcoin, too.. or at least minimumly not related to the topic of this thread, unless there is some kind of bitcoin connection... I just did a quick glance at LINK, and it seems to be an attempt to allow for the decentralized exchanging of crypto assets, but I hardly give any shits, because I always wonder what the justification for any project to issue its own coin - unless they are pegging the coin to bitcoin somehow, which in my cursory look at LINK does not seem to involve pegging or linking of its coin to bitcoin.

(09-28-2019, 11:01 AM)Obermarschall Wrote: It will be very interesting.

Yeah. It could take a while for some of this alt coin relationship to BTC to play out and to see whether there is going to be another altcoin season, and if so which altcoins end up having a pumpening (I doubt all of them, but you never really know for sure), and in the end, I never have any kind of great expectation where these matters are going to go exactly.. except to fundamentally be still watching the main dog, which is kingdaddy bitcoin. So, like you suggest, just monitoring where the whole symbiotic dynamics is going and how it plays out should be an interesting thing to see.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 09-29-2019

For guys who prefer to have video renditions of bitcoin (or any other materials), the video depicted in the below attached tweet seem pretty unambiguous about a recommendation to buy bitcoin, describing all indicators as pointing upwardly...   hahahahaha

https://twitter.com/bitcoin/status/1177580678537302017?s=21


Wachagonna doooo?

Smile

Tongue

#TINIA        #DYOR


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 09-30-2019

Here's a nice article debunking segregated witness misconceptions from a couple of years ago.  I think that a lot of what the article says has been proven to be true, even though it was first published after segregated witness had just gone active - so there was not really any kind of passage of time testing to build more confidence.

I just came across the article, and I cannot recall whether I had seen it or read it previously, so I thought that it might be a good idea to place it here.

https://medium.com/@dexx/debunking-three-misconceptions-about-segregated-witness-3bbf55c6f4de


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Telesio - 09-30-2019

The annual Traders expo will be in Las Vegas from November 7-9.  

The following speakers are giving presentations on Bitcoin.  The presentations are free.  Are these reputable experts?

https://conferences.moneyshow.com/tradersexpo-las-vegas/workshop/c15dba23994d4a758ef3329e3fddaacb/is-bitcoin-entering-its-parabolic-phase/

https://conferences.moneyshow.com/tradersexpo-las-vegas/workshop/31ec8163cdee4f8a87b8b2d193287dcf/how-high-will-bitcoin-go/

https://conferences.moneyshow.com/tradersexpo-las-vegas/workshop/16f5202e685d46f0b811af13438eb0e7/unblocking-growth--cryptocurrency-strategies-for-investment-trading--business/


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 09-30-2019

(09-30-2019, 01:11 AM)Telesio Wrote: The annual Traders expo will be in Las Vegas from November 7-9.  

The following speakers are giving presentations on Bitcoin.  The presentations are free.  Are these reputable experts?

https://conferences.moneyshow.com/tradersexpo-las-vegas/workshop/c15dba23994d4a758ef3329e3fddaacb/is-bitcoin-entering-its-parabolic-phase/

https://conferences.moneyshow.com/tradersexpo-las-vegas/workshop/31ec8163cdee4f8a87b8b2d193287dcf/how-high-will-bitcoin-go/

https://conferences.moneyshow.com/tradersexpo-las-vegas/workshop/16f5202e685d46f0b811af13438eb0e7/unblocking-growth--cryptocurrency-strategies-for-investment-trading--business/

I think that the first one (Tom Lee) is quite famous in the bitcoin space for have strong views on bitcoin, and maybe even overly bullish views.  He is smart, too.

I have not heard of either of the other two, even though the blurbs introductions seem to be o.k.

I, personally, sometimes get a bit jaded by folks who are  pumping some other scam coins and things like that, but if they are just giving you some techniques to help you to analyze the markets yourself, then you should still be able to learn from them, even if you don't recognize their agenda until after hearing them present.

I know that you are probably also asking about likely quality of presentation, and in that regard, Lee is the only of them in which I am familiar, and I doubt that anything from him would be disappointing, even if you might not agree with everything he says.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 09-30-2019

Here's a link to an article that provides some week-after-the-launch review of the significance of BAKKT.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/bakkt-to-the-wall-evaluating-bakkts-first-week-and-its-future-potential


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - Swordfish1010 - 10-01-2019

(09-30-2019, 06:59 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: Here's a link to an article that provides some week-after-the-launch review of the significance of BAKKT.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/bakkt-to-the-wall-evaluating-bakkts-first-week-and-its-future-potential

People are way too quick to call it a flop. They will tip their toes into the water before getting in.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 10-01-2019

(10-01-2019, 02:32 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:
(09-30-2019, 06:59 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: Here's a link to an article that provides some week-after-the-launch review of the significance of BAKKT.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/bakkt-to-the-wall-evaluating-bakkts-first-week-and-its-future-potential

People are way too quick to call it a flop. They will tip their toes into the water before getting in.

Oh yeah.  We are going to have to see how it plays out over then next year or two.

I recall that the exchange Gemini had gotten a lot of hype in 2015, and when it launched in late 2015, it hardly had any traffic.  It took them a good 6 to 12 months to really develop traffic/trade volume, and of course we know that even though some people in the bitcoin space are NOT so enthusiastic about the Winkeloss twins, yet they have added more and more products to the bitcoin space that allow more traditional investors ways to get into bitcoin and to feel certain levels of comfort.

TLDR:  I agree that these matters can take a decent amount of time to see significant trade volume.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 10-01-2019

Seems to be a new interesting development in New Zealand enabling easier ways to pay salaries in bitcoin.  I am not sure if all the claims of the article is correct, but it remains an interesting development, in my thinking.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/new-zealand-legalizes-cryptocurrency-salaries-including-bitcoin-2019-8-1028442320?utm_source=reddit.com


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 10-01-2019

Here's a thread that points out various relationships in the crypto space (not quite bitcoin specific, even though many of us realize that the most important one is king daddy bitcoin... yet there can be a variety of ways that money comes into the space, and is sloshed around a bit)

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/dbq8bb/banks_are_investing_to_crypto_much_more_you_think/?utm_source=ifttt


[Image: 7e29r1m92wp31.jpg?width=960&crop=smart&a...91ead2a1f4]


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 10-01-2019

Here is a link to an interesting and perhaps titillating article from yesterday.

Not sure if it is FUD, but it does show an interesting temporary dynamic in which tether is supposedly gaining more trading volume than bitcoin.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-01/tether-not-bitcoin-likely-the-world-s-most-used-cryptocurrency


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 10-02-2019

Here's an interesting article from today that links to a study of a German bank suggesting both that 1) BTC's performance is outshining that of gold and 2) BTC has good odds of reaching $90k per coin sometime in 2020.  Whether true or not, it is interesting to see that banks are starting to get on board the bitcoin thinking train.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/state-backed-german-bank-says-bitcoin-will-leap-to-90-000-in-2020


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 10-03-2019

Some changes in where local bitcoin volume is being traded.


https://twitter.com/nic__carter/status/1179403111112286210


[Image: EF4U4LQXUAEExUM?format=jpg&name=small]


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 10-07-2019

Here's an interesting tweet from Simon Dixon from today concerning an article and a bitcoin related (even though he uses the term "digital fiat currencies" statement of the federal reserve chairman, Jerome Powell.

https://twitter.com/SimonDixonTwitt/status/1181099353416577029

>>>>>>>>The fed is preparing for the collapse of fractional reserve banking - are you? “We are concerned that the primacy of the U.S. Dollar could be in long-term jeopardy from wide adoption of digital fiat currencies,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell<<<<<


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 10-07-2019

Here's a nice chart with yearly candles.


Lovely... Lovely.


https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1181215870216892417

[Image: EGSFkrbU8AA02Vj?format=png&name=small]


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 10-08-2019

Here's about a 35 minute YouTube presentation from Andreas Antonopolis from a few days ago, and he talks about both bitcoin and ethereum as incumbents that are quite difficult to replace.  I am not sure whether I agree with his assessment of ethereum, but his talking points still make a decent amount of sense regarding difficulties (if not impossibilities) in toppling an incumbent.






RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 10-09-2019

Here's a link to a 31 page article that I just came across, and I am NOT sure about when it was written.  

Dates of some of the charts, graphs and data seem to go through July 2019, so maybe it was written (or published) sometime after that.

It is like institutional investors are finding more and more reasons to justify diversifying some of their assets into bitcoin.

https://www.vaneck.com/globalassets/home/us/blogs/bm-blog-categories/vaneck-digital-assets--the-investment-case-for-bitcoin.pdf

The disclaimer at the end of the article says that the Vaneck is not necessarily responsible for the contents of the article, and the authors of the article are responsible, but there are no author names (besides Vaneck)... strange, strange, strange.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - SpecialEd - 10-09-2019

Was reading up on Roger Ver. Interesting guy but weird how he's still pushing BCH so hard. Talk about a shitcoin lol.


RE: The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics) - JayJuanGee - 10-09-2019

Here's another beautiful graph and links to threads and an article talking about such.

[Image: EGXz27dX0AEqwtP?format=jpg&name=small]


https://twitter.com/thetokenanalyst/status/1181618606649548800


https://bitcoinist.com/who-are-the-biggest-bitcoin-hodlers/