The Bitcoin Thread (price and other bitcoin related topics)
I am of the belief that the halvening is NOT really and truly priced in, but of course, since we know that it is coming there is a certain amount of front running of it, and so in that regard it is somewhat priced in.


Here's a nice little rambling tweet on the topic.

https://twitter.com/JacobCanfield/status...4397315072

Quote:
>>>>>
The halving is priced in so much that it’s actually not priced in and no one is buying bitcoin except the smart money who knows it’s not priced in who has convinced everyone else it is priced in so when the halving occurs and price is skyrocketing no one will be holding bitcoin<<<<<<
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Happy new year (and new decade) STW members.

Here's a nice little comparative rendition showing bitcoin's price performance in comparison to a wide array of other assets in 2019.

Looking pretty good, relatively speaking.... Hopefully 2020 is going to bring equally or better performance, but even if it does not, we have 2021, which could be a good back up plan year, no?   Flat is fine for me, too, in 2020, even though UP would be even moar better.   Wink

https://twitter.com/APompliano/status/12...1994302466



[Image: ENIjmJLWsAEMWvf?format=jpg&name=small]
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I like a couple of the charts in the below-linked article, and also there is a nice little 3.5 minute video clip in that article, too.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...ics-aghast


Nice to see a 10 year span, with the relatively "little bumps" in bitcoin's history that earlier had appeared as "big bumps" while we were in the midst of them.  Go figure?  Understand the zoom out? Does it make sense?  Perhaps to a longer term HODLer?

[Image: 620x-1.png]




Visualize our nice little 2019 up and down, too, and we are still 95% up, like depicted in my graphical comparative assets post from a few hours ago.




[Image: 620x-1.png]
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For some reason, I like this article, too.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-4...ns-in-2020

Even though we should already realize that bitcoin is the king daddy... sometimes it can be helpful to present that information from another perspective, which seems to be what has been attempted in the above relatively short/quickie article pointing out for advantages of bitcoin over altcoins in the coming year...  
>>>>>>>>
1.   Scarcity
2.   Apolitical value transfer
3.   Technical prowess
4.   It’s not an entity<<<<<<<
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Here's a tweet of an interesting chart on Tradingview.com.  It depicts quarterly candles, and when I go to Tradingview.com, I can only get a maximum of monthly candles, so that might be a feature that paid members get (I'm not a paid member, there).

https://twitter.com/cryptodonalt/status/...46656?s=21

[Image: ENKUuMNXkAENE4_?format=jpg&name=small]

Actually, the underlying tweet is asserting something interesting too:

Quote:

>>>>>
I'm pretty sure we're gonna bounce big time in the next 3-6 months.<<<<<<

Only interesting because it is saying something that seems to be fairly obvious, with the halvening coming in about 5 months. But, no outcome is any kind of actual "given" in bitcoin, even if such asserted outcome seems to have decent odds of happening.

What kinds of odds should we be giving to this "bounce"? Greater than 50/50 odds?

What is "big time?" Greater than $10k or greater than $13,880? Or greater than $19,666?

I am thinking that greater than $13,880 would be pretty decently BIG time, if such bounce were to happen in the next 3-6 months? Anyone differ in thinking?
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I am not sure if this four month old article was posted, but I am looking at the corridor, again... and just thinking about how broad it is... and sure we remain in the middle of it, currently.

[Image: gSOHKLO.png]

https://medium.com/coinmonks/bitcoins-na...9d0e9b3c94
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Many metrics were positive in 2019, according to James Lopp.... 


https://blog.lopp.net/bitcoin-2019-annual-review/
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I wonder how the Iran situation will continue to affect the price?
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(01-03-2020, 04:35 PM)SC87 Wrote: I wonder how the Iran situation will continue to affect the price?

I agree that uncertainty is increased with BIG world events like that.  Do you have any theories or speculation?

Of course, bitcoin is likely quite a bit on its own trajectory and is really NOT too much tied to macro world events in a lot of the ways that little knowledge bitcoin arm-chair pundits frequently like to conjecture.... but sometimes if the world events are extreme enough, then there could be some short to medium term affects on bitcoin's price dynamics/trajectory.

Seems to me that the dow jones has not really moved too much with this news, yet, but even with that sometimes it could take a few days or weeks to really recognize some momentum changes and still questions of causation versus correlation.. because I would consider 1-4% changes in any of these markets to be largely noise rather than specific causation, even though speculation and theories will frequently be spouted out before really understanding if there is any meaningful causal connection.

Of course, Bitcoin prices are going up a little bit in the past 12 hours, but hardly would be meaningful to attribute such movement in any kind of way to one event, especially when BTC prices have been in a dip for a couple of months and attempting to test support (and even ranging in largely $6,500 to $7,500 arena) and likely due for a bit of a rebound.., in the event that support holds, that still has not really taken bitcoin much if anywhere clear of striking distance of the current local bottom of $6,425.  

Get us above $8,500, then maybe it could be time to sing another tune, but even that kind of price rebound would not necessarily be clear enough.. we had an april to june rebound approaching nearly $14k and another late October rebound that brought us from $7,300 to $10,300, and still we are still here in the lower $7ks.... unless we are getting close to testing $10k support and staying there for a while, which might lend a bit more confidence that the "bottom" could possibly be "in" for this particular correction cycle.

Of course, if something extreme happens with macro markets, then we might have to employ some differing assessments and analysis in order to conjecture the extent that macro markets might have some causal connections towards what bitcoin prices are doing, but until then, I see no real need to get distracted by these kinds of macro market happenings when bitcoin seems to have models that are a bit more likely influencing its medium to long term price performance direction including: 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal, 3) s-curve exponential adoption (networking effects) and 4) other convincing variations of these frameworks.
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(01-03-2020, 05:30 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:
(01-03-2020, 04:35 PM)SC87 Wrote: I wonder how the Iran situation will continue to affect the price?

I agree that uncertainty is increased with BIG world events like that.  Do you have any theories or speculation?

Of course, bitcoin is likely quite a bit on its own trajectory and is really NOT too much tied to macro world events in a lot of the ways that little knowledge bitcoin arm-chair pundits frequently like to conjecture.... but sometimes if the world events are extreme enough, then there could be some short to medium term affects on bitcoin's price dynamics/trajectory.

Seems to me that the dow jones has not really moved too much with this news, yet, but even with that sometimes it could take a few days or weeks to really recognize some momentum changes and still questions of causation versus correlation.. because I would consider 1-4% changes in any of these markets to be largely noise rather than specific causation, even though speculation and theories will frequently be spouted out before really understanding if there is any meaningful causal connection.

Of course, Bitcoin prices are going up a little bit in the past 12 hours, but hardly would be meaningful to attribute such movement in any kind of way to one event, especially when BTC prices have been in a dip for a couple of months and attempting to test support (and even ranging in largely $6,500 to $7,500 arena) and likely due for a bit of a rebound.., in the event that support holds, that still has not really taken bitcoin much if anywhere clear of striking distance of the current local bottom of $6,425.  

Get us above $8,500, then maybe it could be time to sing another tune, but even that kind of price rebound would not necessarily be clear enough.. we had an april to june rebound approaching nearly $14k and another late October rebound that brought us from $7,300 to $10,300, and still we are still here in the lower $7ks.... unless we are getting close to testing $10k support and staying there for a while, which might lend a bit more confidence that the "bottom" could possibly be "in" for this particular correction cycle.

Of course, if something extreme happens with macro markets, then we might have to employ some differing assessments and analysis in order to conjecture the extent that macro markets might have some causal connections towards what bitcoin prices are doing, but until then, I see no real need to get distracted by these kinds of macro market happenings when bitcoin seems to have models that are a bit more likely influencing its medium to long term price performance direction including: 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal, 3) s-curve exponential adoption (networking effects) and 4) other convincing variations of these frameworks.

Here's a bit of a related article that asserts that bitcoin prices in Iran have surged based (likely to be short term?), perhaps, on some of this recent Macro markets uncertainty.

https://u.today/bitcoin-price-reaches-29...gital-gold
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Happy 11 year old.... ... Great to be a king daddy, and only 11 years old..... Go figure.   Tongue

 

Smile

Also, here is a nice colorful chart that shows bitcoin's yearly performance compared with 9 other asset classes on an annual basis for the past 10 years.


https://twitter.com/BrianEstes32/status/...6337299463

[Image: ENTjEqZWwAAhJ72?format=png&name=small]
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Here's some year end calculations of BTC  price performance and also break down of monthly back comparisons and other combining calculations to 2011, too.

https://twitter.com/Rptr45/status/121275...61633?s=20

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https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comment...k_in_iran/
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(01-04-2020, 07:14 PM)SC87 Wrote: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comment...k_in_iran/

Thanks for that clarification (correction) SC87.... better to attempt to work from actual facts rather than wrong information.... 

In sum.. the above linked reddit thread is asserting that BTC trading prices are largely in line with prices around the world, rather than inflated in recent times.
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Food for thought:

I read today that someone thinks bitcoin is an invention made by the Chinese.

He said the whole bitcoin operation will collapse once the Chinese stop mining.
It's a tool that will be used to cause global instability.
It will be used to advance a cashless society.

I don't believe the theory (besides the cashless society one) but just throwing this out there.
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(01-04-2020, 09:47 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote: Food for thought:

I read today that someone thinks bitcoin is an invention made by the Chinese.

He said the whole bitcoin operation will collapse once the Chinese stop mining.
It's a tool that will be used to cause global instability.
It will be used to advance a cashless society.

I don't believe the theory (besides the cashless society one) but just throwing this out there.


There are quite a few recycling of nonsense assertions, and regarding the "Chinese" there have been quite a few variations of the theory going back to 2013... and they kind of got fucked in the 2017 price run because a lot of Chinese funds got frozen on Chinese exchanges starting in late 2016 which caused a lot of those folks to miss out on the 2017 price run.  

A lot of the assertions that too much mining or manufacturing of mining equipment in China does not add up either, so your merely throwing out some vague assertions in conclusory terms does not really help very much in causing the FUD spreader to provide facts and logic for the asserted points - except to support an assertion that people say all kinds of dumb shit.  So, the fact that someone made some dumb statements should not be newsworthy unless you believe that there is some kind of basis in the statements.  Furthermore, any myth is going to have some semblance of fact and logic, including that the earth is flat, but does not really make it a worthwhile topic.

Regarding the cashless society.. sure governments are trying to  move in that direction, but the mere fact that there are oppression attempts from governments regarding cashlessness does not cause bitcoin to be a tool of the government, even though there can be a decent amount of transparency in bitcoin regarding transactions.. so in that regard, anyone should be considering how to attempt to use bitcoin in a way that is beneficial to them which there are a lot of work in the lightning network concerning anonymizing transactions.  Surely Rome was not built in a day, so it is not necessarily going to be easy to transition into bitcoin, so each of us needs to attempt to identify whether bitcoin is a useful tool for us, and whether we believe it is a good investment, too, in terms of the various use cases that it provides and is likely to provide in the future.
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JJG, it is really great that you're collecting ephemera from the world of bitcoin and its discourse. But most guys here are amateurs – I know I am – and it would be great to use this thread to prioritize strictly those major events that are likely to be actionable from an investing perspective.
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(01-05-2020, 03:49 AM)churros Wrote: JJG, it is really great that you're collecting ephemera from the world of bitcoin and its discourse. But most guys here are amateurs – I know I am – and it would be great to use this thread to prioritize strictly those major events that are likely to be actionable from an investing perspective.

You can bring up whatever you want related to bitcoin, including investing and theory.  I post what I believe to be interesting and relevant to the thread, but if you see something that you believe to be relevant then feel free to share it here.

Even if you might not always recognize matters, I frequently bring matters back to investing, when I get into discussing price, which seems to be a topic that is continuously of interest, and I believe in dollar cost averaging, buying on dips and holding through rough times are sound policies and practices for any guys who are getting into bitcoin.

Yeah, some guys might be trying to give negative information or even attempting to suggest that guys wait before investing in Bitcoin because they believe that the price is going to fall more, and in my opinion, those do not tend to be great strategies.  In the end, any guy is going to need to tailor his approach to bitcoin to his own  situation, including his perception and including his inclination to gamble on downward prices, if he  believes that will work.  

So, is there some bitcoin related topic that you believe that I am stifling any guys from bringing up and discussing?  Yeah, I understand that there might be some more basic ways to approach the bitcoin topic, and surely you could start another thread if you want to attempt to frame the bitcoin investing topic in another more basic and amateur way, but I am surely not opposed to mixing in the amateur and the newbie talking points in this thread as long as they largely attempt to stay related to bitcoin rather than getting diverted into some thing else, but even if we are comparing different investments, there are ways to attempt to make those topics largely about bitcoin and maybe even considering how to balance or allocate bitcoin into your investment strategies..  

Of course, bitcoin can be a quite complicated topic, but there are still a lot of newbie resources that can be pointed out and discussed along the way, too, which I believe we have done some of that already, but more cannot hurt and the space is constantly evolving with new resources, too.

I may post a lot, and I may respond to almost all of the posts in this thread (so far), but none of the guys should feel that they are not free to post their point of view - especially if they are trying to make it about bitcoin, even if they might be newbies to bitcoin and might have more basic concerns... Furthermore, there is no need that guys agree with my opinion.  Surely you recall that swordfish does not really believe in DCA, and he said that he is more of a buy on dips kind of guy.. so any actual stifling of conversation effect that I might have is likely not intentional.. except there do tend to be a lot of trolls and shills in the bitcoin and crypto space, if you had not known that.... and if I perceive that a post is trolling or shilling, then I might try to stifle or at least approach those posts with some hostilities.

Furthermore, you may have noticed that I tend to NOT be too friendly to the alt coin pumpeners, the no coiners (unless they might be precoiners), the bitcoin naysayers, and sometimes to the fence sitters, but I do understand if some guys might be fence sitters because they are still investigating into the BTC matter... and sometimes guys might be confused about the differences between altcoins and bitcoin... so easily to get distracted about those topics in this space, too, sometimes... so there is that, too.
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Here's a nice contemporary lightning network article that was just published today/yesterday and it has a lot of good links in it too... while proclaiming that there continues to be a lot of anticipated positive developments in lightning network in the coming year.

https://decrypt.co/15777/why-2020-will-b...ng-network
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I like this tweet of a graph of BTC notable people making BTC price predictions

https://twitter.com/BitcoinEcon/status/1...3107549184

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